12/11/11: Back to the Future – Embracing the Changes in Real Estate Investing

With a catchy title like “Back the Future” you might expect a picture of a Doc Brown, Marty McFly or a flying DeLorean.  It’s hard to believe that this now “classic” movie is over 25 years old!

But who is THIS guy?  And what does any of this have to do with real estate?

Since our audience surveys tell us most of you are something younger than a baby boomer, we’ll give you a hint:  this guy is a singer/songwriter and this picture was on his third album cover released in 1964.  It was an LP (which means Long Playing recording on a big vinyl disc that Disc Jockeys, aka DJ’s, would “spin” on turntables at 33-1/3 revolutions per minute…wonder how all tha real estate near the LP factory is doing??? – just sayin’).

Not sure who he is?  Hang in there.  We’ll tell you later.  Meanwhile, back to our blog about his week’s episode.

Back to our blogging…

Think about the world today.  Wouldn’t you agree that the times they are a’changin’?  (Wait. Is that another hint?)  And the changing times affect where people, businesses, jobs and money move.  Therefore, it’s only logical to expect that changing times affect real estate.

We know.  Sometimes it’s hard to see the changes when you’re living in them.  Other times, the changes are obvious, but we fail to connect the dots and anticipate the effects on our investments.  We call that being “blind-sided” and it’s not a good thing.  It happened to us in 2008, so we pay extra careful attention today, which is point of this episode.

In the recording studio for another real estate radio jam session:

• Your radio rock star host, Robert Helms
• His radio roadie and co-host, Russell Gray
• Your baritone boomer, the Godfather of Real Estate, Bob Helms

Now, when Bob Dylan’s (yeah, that’s him) album, The Times They Are A’ Changin’ came out in 1964, there was a lot of turmoil in the world. 

Before he was assassinated, President Kennedy had just confronted the Soviet Union over nuclear weapons in Cuba – right off the coast of the U.S!  The Civil Rights movement was in full swing, replete with protests, riots and all kinds of civil unrest.  Meanwhile, the U.S. government was busy switching out all the real silver coins for nickel plated tokens. 

The point is there was a lot going on and much of it wasn’t pretty.  But let’s stop right here.

If you could jump in a flying DeLorean and go back to 1964, knowing what you now know, would you be more or less inclined to buy real estate in 1964 – even though “the times, they are a’ changin’”?

Now, back to the future, here on the threshold of 2012, assuming the Mayan thing doesn’t happen, do you think real estate will still be here in 2040?  And will it still be a high priority for people and businesses to use real estate to live, work, farm and play?

Sure, we have the Iran nucelar weapon threat and the ongoing war on terrorism.  The Occupy something movement might be considered this generation’s version of the civil rights movement.  Now, it’s economic equality instead of race equality.  And the Fed is busily printing money like there’s no tomorrow. 

We’re not belittling any of these concerns.  They’re very real.  But the point is that there are ALWAYS changes to fret about.  And of course, there are the changes which come from innovation and advancements of all kinds.  Just think about how medical advancements have affected the economy because of longer life spans.

The bottom line is that companies, industries and even governments come and go wiht lots of change in between.  But the real estate remains.  So in uncertain times, when stocks are up one day and down the next, and sovereign nations and municipalities are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, and fiat currencies are being devalued all over the globe…(take a breath…), isn’t real estate one of the most foundational investments you could make?

We know.  If you’re a fan of the show, we’re preaching to the choir.  But the lesson is not just about buying ANY real estate.  It’s buying the right real estate, in the right markets, with the right financial structures, so you don’t just survive the changing times, but prosper in them.

In this episode, we talk about some of the many changes which have happened and are happening, how they’ve affected real estate, and how to position your investing in the eye of the storm where it’s safer.

So listen in to the conversation, then look at all the change all around you with excitement and anticipation.  In change, there is opportunity – and even more so, because casual observers are paralyzed into inaction, leaving lots of oportunity for the thoughtful and bold.

The biggest real estate investors we know have been and remain very active in this market. They see low interest rates, slow building rates (limiting supply), increasing population, rising rents and a widow of opportunity that won’t stay open forever.

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8/28/11: August and the Economy Part 4 – Can a Bad Economy Create Great Investments?

Whew.  Here we are at our fourth and final installment of the August and the Economy series.  How are you holding up?  Our brains are swollen.

But, to keep the rally going, we’ve called on some very smart and outspoken money managers.  As we’ve said before (and will say again), too many real estate investors operate in their own world – which is far and away from the world of traditional financial planning, economics and paper assets.  Real estate investors are deal junkies.

However, there’s a lot to learn from paper asset and commodities guys.  And our guests for this episode are no exception.

Sitting at the silver (which some argue is a hotter commodity than gold) microphones, looking for the silver lining in the cloud of recession hanging over the U.S. economy:

• Your silver tongued host, Robert Helms
• Your on-his-way-to silver haired co-host, Russell Gray
• Returning guest, the ever energetic and outspoken President of Euro-Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff
• First time guest, alternative investment money manager, Ty Andros

With all that silver talk, you’d think this episode is about commodities.  And certainly both of our guests are concerned about the dollar and bullish on metals.  But today’s discussion is much bigger than that.

Peter Schiff has become well known for his very accurate prediction of the financial meltdown as chronicled in his best selling book, Crash Proof 2.o which is on our Recommended Reading list.  He’s been contending with many of the mainstream financial pundits for quite some time.  We like him because he makes Austrian economics easy to understand.

Since we last interviewed Peter a year ago, a lot has happened.  We check in with Peter this episode to get his current thoughts on recent events and where he sees the dollar, commodities and real estate all heading.

Ty Andros is also a money manager, but where Peter focuses primarily on non-U.S. stocks, Ty puts a lot of emphasis on commodities.   So as you might imagine, he has a lot to say on the state of the U.S. dollar and its affect on commodity values.

We care about what stock guys think about businesses because businesses are who employ our tenants.  We want to know which industries and areas are most likely to have good prospects for stable and growing employment.  People with jobs make better tenants.

We also care about commodities for a couple of reasons.  First, if our currency is dropping in value, then we need to find alternatives to hold our liquid reserves – somthing that will retain purchasing power.  After all, that’s all a currency is good for: buying stuff.

Commodity trends are important for other reasons also.  Rising commodity prices are one of the first symptoms of inflation, which will later show up in unemployment (when costs go up, but prices can’t be raised yet, companies will lay off people to reduce labor costs and offset their rising costs of raw materials).  Also, rising commodity prices make new buildings more expensive to build, so as replacement costs rise, current buildings are more attractive.

The point is that all this economic stuff really does directly matter to real estate investors.  And most don’t ever pay any attention to it.  So dare to be different!  Listen in to these compelling commentaries and expand your own thinking…right here on The Real Estate Guys™ radio show!

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8/21/11: August and the Economy Part 3 – The Downgrade, Rates and Your Money

How does the first ever downgrade of Uncle Sam’s credit rating affect your interest rates…or does it?  Inquiring minds want to know!

Since S&P conveniently issued the downgrade right in the middle of our August and the Economy series, we already had a lot to say on the topic.  Of course, if you read our blogs and listen to our podcasts, you already know that.

And since we’ve already heard from big time fund managers and a couple of presidential candidates, we thought it would be “fun” to get an academic’s opinion.  And to our delight, we actually found a fun academic to come on the show!

In the classroom for this episode of The Real Estate Guy™s radio show:

• Your academic host, Robert Helms
• You co-host and teacher’s aide, Russell Gray
• Your substitute teacher, Economics Professor from St. Lawrence University, Steve Horwitz

As real estate investors, we care about interest rates.  And since interest rates are derived primarily from bond market dynamics (and, my oh my, haven’t the bond markets been dynamic the last few years!), it makes sense to pay attention to bonds.  Just the thought it leaves us….well, bored would be an improvement.  Hey, we just want to do deals.  Who wants to wade into all this macro-economic mumbo jumbo?

Fortunately, Professor Horwitz is a fun, high energy and super smart guy. Plus, he’s an Austrian!  (Strange. With a name like Horwitz, we wouldn’t have thought that.)

At any rate (get it?), Professor Horwitz provides us yet another important perspective on the ebb and flow of money through the bond markets – and gives us his take on the U.S. debt downgrade debate and what it means to real estate investors.  So grab your notebook and Spider-Man lunch pail and let’s go to school!

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8/14/11: August and the Economy Part 2 – Perspectives from Two Men Who Would Be President

So it’s not every day you get to sit down with a bona fide presidential candidate face to face and ask whatever you want.  In our case, we got to do it TWICE in one day!  Very fun.

Now whatever you political bent, the issue isn’t what YOU think SHOULD happen.  What we’re interested in is what the people who will be shaping the debate, if not actually running the show in 2013, are thinking.

Our two guests happen to be Republican candidates, so if you’re on the other side of the fence, just hold your nose and listen anyway.  The more info you have, the better you’ll be able to invest.  Again, you don’t have to agree, you just need to understand the possibilities.  And if you know a Democratic candidate who wants to be on the show, let us know!  All viewpoints are welcome.

Behind the illustrious silver microphones in our spacious, upscale mobile studio (including folding chairs and table):

• Your presidential host, Robert Helms
• Your vice-presidential co-host, Russell Gray
• Special Guest, Director of Economic Research for the Reason Foundation, Anthony Randazzo
• Special Guest, Two Term Governor of New Mexico and current Presidential Candidate, Gary Johnson
• Special Guest, Businessman and Presidential Candidate, Herman Cain

When you’re an elected official, you have a bazillion thinks to think about.  And you need a lot of help thinking.  It’s kind of like being a busy real estate investor.  You need to have a team of people who stay on top of changes in landlord law, taxes, mortgage guidelines, credit scoring, asset protection and estate planning – just to name a few!

So we kick off this show talking to Anthony Randazzo, a big brain whose job it is to study, think and advise on economic matters.  One of the things Anthony studies are GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

If you’ve been paying attention, you know that Fannie and Freddie play a major role in U.S. housing (and the bond markets), were very much at the center of the mortgage meltdown, and have lots of people in Washington who’d like to see them go away. Kind of like how Ron Paul wants the Fed to go away.  It may never happen, but if it did it would change a lot things we take for granted as real estate investors.  So, it’s important to pay attention to what the big brains and the politicians (not that the two are mutually exclusive ) have to say.

Then we talked to Gary Johnson and Herman Cain.  We won’t paraphrase those conversations here, but you can be sure we asked about jobs and real estate.  And of course, we asked what they thought needed to happen to create more jobs. And unlike many shows, we let them talk.  We found it very interesting and we think you will too!

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8/7/11: August and the Economy Part 1 – Macro Market Perspectives from Two Mega Players

The aftermath of the debt ceiling vote and the subsequent S&P downgrade just adds to the drama surrounding the U.S. economy.

When you add the European debt crisis, talk of a QE3 on the heels of QE2, plus gold prices hitting record highs – it’s certain August 2011 will be remembered as a time when the entire world focused on economics.

Real estate investors from Mom and Pop to REITs are watching carefully to see what will happen with interest rates, taxes and job creation. The difference is that the mega players have huge research departments and access to the best information and analysis.

Wouldn’t you like to know what the big players are thinking? The Real Estate Guys™ are here to help!

We travel the world to capture the interviews you won’t hear anywhere else. We’re dedicating the entire month of August to bringing you insights and perspectives from economists, scholars, fund managers – and even a few politicians!

At the microphones for this exciting first installment of August and the Economy:

• Your hot August host, Robert Helms
• Your not so cool co-host, Russell Gray
• Special guest; U.S. Global Investors CEO and Chief Investment Officer, Frank Holmes
• Special guest, Renowned Market Analyst and Editor of The Wellington Letter, Bert Dohmen

This is an episode you’ll want to listen to more than once – and probably with a note pad.

Frank Holmes oversees over $3 billion (with a “b”) of assets and 4 of his funds are in the top 25 best performing.  We think that means he’s qualified to have an opinion about economic issues.  Of course, his focus is stocks and bonds, but we’ve learned that the stock, bond, commodities and real estate markets are all interrelated. The mortgage meltdown and subsequent (and unprecedented) decline in U.S. real estate values was directly tied to what was happening in the bond market.

Bert Dohmen is a renowned market analyst with over three decades of experience.  More importantly, he boasts an impressive track record of having accurately predicted the start of every recession over the last 33 years.  We asked him his secret and he answered, “Technical analysis”.

Really?  Our friend Robert Kiyosaki (who’s agreed to join us live and in person for the entire week for our 2012 Investor Summit at Sea™) has been talking about the importance of technical analysis for real estate investors.  So it’s something we’ve become very interested in.   Watch for more on this topic in the weeks and months ahead.

For now, listen in and discover what some of the biggest brains in the business of managing money think about where we are, where we’re headed and what’s likely to happen next.

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12/26/10: Getting Started in Real Estate Investing…for the First, Second or Third Time!

Donald Trump is probably the most famous “real estate guy” who made it big, lost it all, then made it all back bigger and better than before.  What took him down you ask?  In his book, The Art of the Comeback, the Donald says it was complacency and The Tax Reform Act of 1986.   Remember that one?  It was that wonderful piece of legislation that crashed the real estate market and wiped out the Savings & Loan industry.  Oops.

Our point?  Actually, there’s a few, such as how important it is to pay close attention (the opposite of complacency) to ANYTHING (including boring politics) that might affect the flow of money into any asset class – especially real estate.  That’s one reason why we’ve had so many economists on over the last several months.  Which brings us to the main point of this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ Radio Show, which is to address the question: What is the best way to move forward in this market based on all of the lessons of past markets?

Pulling the sleigh of broadcast excellence over the mountains and through the hills (and valleys) of the currently snow covered real estate landscape:

• Robert, the red-nosed show host, Helms
• Russell, the noseless co-host, Gray (brown was the only color left in the box and he didn’t want to wear it)

When navigating your own real estate investing sleigh through the foggy night of post-recession real estate, it’s very handy to have a shiny red nosed guide (beer consumption does serve a valuable investment purpose!).  There’s nothing like experience to light the way for those just starting out.  And with low prices, a growing population, low interest rates, more renters, and less new building, it sure looks like a GREAT time to get started – or for those who got lost in the last financial blizzard, re-started and pointed in the right direction.

Focusing on the right fundamentals is essential to long term success.  Legendary football coach Vince Lombardi is said to have begun each year’s training camp by addressing his team of professional athletes. Lombardi would hold up a football and state the obvious, “Gentleman, this is a football.”  In other words, start at the beginning and build your career on a solid foundation of fundamentals.

So whether you’re brand new or a seasoned vet looking to kick off the New Year on the right foot, listen in as we unwrap some of the lessons of markets passed and hang ornaments of wisdom on your real estate investing tree.  Lots of people paid a big price for all these valuable lessons, so even though you get them for next to nothing, don’t overlook their importance.

May the New Year bring you and yours health, wealth and happiness!

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11/21/10: Real Estate Economics – Interviews with the Federal Reserve and National Association of Realtors

As we’re guiding our real estate sailing ship through the choppy economic seas of the past few years, we’ve learned the wisdom of having a lookout watching the horizon for threats and opportunities.

We also like to compare notes with other sailors – especially those whose lookout platforms are higher up than ours.  They can see more and farther than we can.  That’s very helpful when trying to catch a wave or avoid a storm.

So we dove at the chance to interview some high profile people – to find out what they can sea, sea, sea from their higher vantage point.

In beautiful Miami, sitting on the dock of our radio bay, watching the tide roll away:

• Show host and captain of the good ship Equity, Robert Helms
• The cut rate first mate, co-host Russell Gray
• Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors®, Dr. Lawrence Yun
• Vice President and Associate Director of Research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Thomas Cunningham, Ph.D
• President Elect of the National Association of Realtors®, Moe Veissi

Wow!  What an all star line-up!  After watching each of their presentations to the Congress, we decided to chase them down for a quick conversation that we could share with our listeners.  Though they’re all busy men, each was gracious enough to sit down for some one on one with Robert.

Dr. Yun kicks off the show with some comments on the US housing market.  He’s the first economist on earth to see and analyze the housing data gathered by the National Association of Realtors®.  He’s also able to combine the statistical data with lots of relevant anecdotal data – since he interacts regularly Realtors® around the country.  He points out some of the reasons he believes the worst of the storm is past.

Next, we talk to Thomas Cunningham of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Unless you’ve been in a coma the last two years, you know that the Fed has been very active in trying to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates, expanded credit facilities to banks and that mysterious “quantitative easing”.  What does it all mean?  Our mission is to find out!

While economics and monetary policy is interesting, it’s pretty high in the clouds.  So we wrap the show up with a lively conversation with the energetic President-elect of the National Association of Realtors®, Moe Veissi.  Moe shares his thoughts as he transitions from local real estate practitioner to the helm of the world’s largest trade association.

It’s all good stuff, so listen in – and be sure to tell a friend!

The Real Estate Guys™ Radio Show podcast provides education, information and training to help investors make money with their real estate investments.

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9/26/10: Tracking International Trends – CEO Insights from the Nation’s Largest Local Association

Every day, jobs, money, people and business are going global. Some come to the U.S. and some leave.  Some go both ways.  Maybe you’ve fantasized about cross-border transactions, in which case you may need to seek professional help.

Because we’re us, we get to meet all kinds of bright, experienced and interesting people. It counter balances us.   The latest smart person we’ve met (wait until you see how many letters come after her name!) is our guest for this episode.

Revealing their deepest thoughts on this subtle topic:

• Your head therapist, host Robert Helms
• Your head case, co-host Russell Gray
• Special call-in expert, CEO of MIAMI, Teresa Kinney CAE, CIPS, GRI, RCE, TRC

To avoid confusion, even though she wears the title of CEO of MIAMI, Teresa isn’t an official from the city of Miami.  She’s CEO of MIAMI (notice the ALL CAPS) which is comprised of several organizations: the Residential Association, the Realtors® Commercial Alliance, the Broward County Board of Governors, and the International Council.  You can learn more at www.miamire.com.

What impresses us most is that MIAMI is a top gateway for international real estate both coming into and going out of the United States.  So if you’re interested in international real estate, MIAMI and Miami are great places to get connected.  In fact, there’s a big international real estate event coming up October 30-31 featuring National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, and The Real Estate Guys™!

Now some people think tracking markets and trends is a drag, but we like it! Astute investors watch for economic and demographic trends in order to effectively pick markets and properties poised to perform best over the next 10-30 years.

Located in the #1 hub for global real estate, CEO Teresa Kinney oversees the largest local association of Realtors® in the nation.  With access to all the statistics, plus gobs of anecdotal data from over 23,000 agents, Teresa has more insight into international real estate activity than just about anyone else! Of course, we couldn’t wait to ask her a zillion questions.  Tune in and find out what she has to say!

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8/15/10: How Capitalism Will Save Us – An Interview with Steve Forbes

The Real Estate Guys™ sit down and talk with Steve Forbes about jobs, the economy and real estate.

We don’t know about you, but any time a billionaire, a CEO of a major company, a best selling author or a legit presidential candidate is willing to sit down and chat, our response is always, “Yes!”.   In this case, our special guest for this episode, Steve Forbes, is ALL of those things wrapped into one.  So we’re super jazzed to bring this exclusive interview to you.

In the broadcast booth at the Freedom Fest conference in Las Vegas:

• Your Host and interviewer extraordinaire, Robert Helms
• The just-happy-to-be-here Co-host, Russell Gray
• Special guest, Forbes Magazine CEO, Steve Forbes

Mr. Forbes was the keynote speaker at the Freedom Fest conference and remained in attendance for the entire event.  In spite of a recent neck surgery, he was very accommodating and so Robert was able to sit down with Mr. Forbes for an impromptu interview.

We decided to ask him about his latest book, Why Capitalism Will Save Us – Why Free People and Free Markets are the Best Answer in Today’s Economy. Mr. Forbes’ thesis is that too much government is bad for business because it increases costs, diminishes productivity and takes too many resources away from creating jobs for an ever-growing population.  He calls for “sensible rules of the road” to provide a basic framework in which free people can conduct business.  Of course, the great debate is over what’s “sensible”.  His position is that less is more.

What we’re really interested in is jobs. Jobs are where our tenants get their rent money.  It’s where home buyers get the income stream to make the mortgage payments that prop up the property values that create passive equity.  Jobs are near the top of our due diligence check list when evaluating a market to invest in.  It’s one of the reasons we like Dallas right now.  Among U.S. markets, it’s doing pretty well.  Ironically, another great job market is Washington DC, but if there’s a changing of the guard over the next couple of elections, that could change.  But we digress…

So Mr. Forbes shares his thoughts on the economy, job creation and the role of government in real estate, specifically Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  In his position as the CEO and editor-in-chief of Forbes Magazine, he gets to talk with many of people who shape, interpret and respond to public policy.  We really enjoyed our time with him and hope you will too!

On a side note, Steve Forbes is the nicest billionaire we’ve ever interviewed.  Actually, he’s the only billionaire we’ve ever interviewed.  But he’s still a very nice guy.  So, if you’re a billionaire and want to come on the show and be nice to us, just give us a call.  Our door is always open.

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8/8/10: Don’t Say I Didn’t Warn You! Peter Schiff Reveals How He Predicted the Crash

WHO KNEW the crash was coming? Lots of people have been reverse engineering the causes of the financial crisis.  It’s easy(er) to be smart when operating from hindsight.  But when someone gets it right for the right reasons BEFORE the event occurs…well, that’s just impressive.

Peter Schiff is one of the few guys who called it way in advance. Not only that, but he put it in writing in his 2006 book Crash Proof (the updated version Crash Proof 2.0 is now on our recommended reading list).

Even more impressive is that Schiff appeared on a whole host of TV shows sounding the warning.  But people literally LAUGHED at him, as you’ll see in the 10 minute video below.  And there are many other videos of Peter aggressively debating all kinds of people – including next week’s guest on The Real Estate Guys™ Radio Show, Steve Forbes.

Featured on this week’s episode:

• Your host, Robert Helms
• Co-host, Russell Gray
• Fund manager, economist, author and outspoken commentator, Peter Schiff

Politics aside (Schiff is running for the Republican nomination for Senate in Connecticut -  with the endorsement of Steve Forbes!), considering what Peter predicted and what actually happened,  how can you not be at least curious?   It was that curiosity that had us go to Las Vegas for Freedom Fest in July, where we were exposed to many economists who follow the Austrian school of thought.  There isn’t any way in a blog post to explain all we learned, but a recommended homework assignment is to review the major tenets of the Austrian viewpoint versus Keynesian.  We think you’ll find it very interesting, if not highly enlightening!

What we’re really interested in is being able to best anticipate macroeconomic influences that are likely to impact the value of our real estate, the strength of the jobs market, the growth of wages (which fuels growth in rents); and the cost and availability of loans.  We don’t care if you’re Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, fans of rap or a drinker of light beer (okay, we find the last one a little offensive) -if you have something to say that proves true and makes sense, we’re interested.  Peter Schiff is a guy that has proven true and seems to makes sense.

So for this entire show, we ask Peter to tell us to our face how he knew the crisis was coming and what’s going to happen next.  Based on his track record, we think he’s a guy worth listening to.  Check it out and let us know what YOU think!

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