Tech, stocks, and real estate riches …

Imagine you’re the proud owner of a modest 50-year old, four-bedroom, two-bath home … less than 2,000 square feet.

You put it on the market and it sells FAST … for $728,000 MORE than the asking price!!!

That’s not the sales price … just the premium OVER what you listed it for!

You might think this happened in that mythical marketplace … Fantasyland … but according this report, it just happened in Sunnyvale, California.

This average home was listed at $1,688,000 … which is RIDICULOUS in and of itself … but the actual sales price was a WHOPPING $2,470,000!!!

WOW.  Equity happened BIG TIME for that lucky owner!

But HOW?  And more importantly, what does it mean … and is there a way to get in on the action?

Let’s break it down …

First, equity is always about the right mix of supply, demand, and capacity to pay.

When there’s too little of something that lots of people can afford to pay more for … prices get bid UP.

In this case, the San Francisco Bay Area has next-to-no capacity to increase the supply of homes.

There’s an ocean, a bay, mountains, a green belt … and most of the available land has already been developed … or can’t be.Next, there’s a robust tech industry, great weather, and other attractions bringing an influx of immigrants from around the country and around the world.

Next, there’s a robust tech industry, great weather, and other attractions bringing an influx of immigrants from around the country and around the world.

So there’s lots of demand for housing relative to supply.But … $2.4 million for a run-of-the-mill house in an average neighborhood … bid up to $728,000 over asking price???

But … $2.4 million for a run-of-the-mill house in an average neighborhood … bid up to $728,000 over asking price???

That’s ALL about “capacity to pay” … and not from cheap mortgages.

No home lender is going to finance a mortgage on a home for $728,000 above asking price … no matter HOW great your credit score is.

So this huge overbid didn’t happen because some high-tech earner levered a fat paycheck into a fatter mortgage payment into an obese mortgage.

Without knowing the details of the transaction, we think it’s a safe bet this was a CASH purchase.  But that doesn’t mean cheap debt wasn’t involved.

Here’s how the Fed, tech, the stock market, and real estate all intersect …

It’s no secret the stock market has been on an epic bull run for quite some time.  It’s a bubble that just keeps inflating.

Inside the stock bubble are the FAANGs …  Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google … the tech sector.

These have been the horses pulling the stock market higher and higher.

Another part of the story is the long-term crazy low interest rates provided by the Fed.

Big corporations (like the FAANGS) then borrow cheap money to buy back their stocks … pushing up stock prices (and executive bonuses).

Of course, if you’re a compulsive-obsessive financial news watcher like we are, we’re not telling you anything you don’t already know … but stick with us …

Because what many people outside the tech industry aren’t aware of is a very common compensation incentive tech companies offer employees … called stock options.

Simply stated, a tech worker takes a slightly lesser salary, which aids cash flow for a start-up, while accepting options to purchase the company’s stock at a future date at a fixed price.

The employee is now motivated to work hard and stay long to drive the company to profitability … and a higher stock price.

When those options eventually vest, they’re what options traders call “in the money”.

In some cases, it’s a LOT of money.

Long-term Silicon Valley residents are accustomed to spurts of fast real estate equity caused when a booming stock market creates tech stock-option millionaires … and fuels bidding wars for scarce housing.

Of course, you don’t have to be in the tech industry or have stock options to be the beneficiary of explosive real estate equity.

You just need to be in the right market.

After all, what do you think the home next door to this $2.47 million property is now worth?

Of course, all this is intellectually interesting … but is there real world opportunity here for real estate investors?

We think so.

Way back in 2012, Forbes put out a list of top tech cities.  Among them were Seattle, Washington DC, and San Jose.

Today, with the benefit of hindsight, we know those markets have all seen substantial appreciation.

But there were other markets on the list, which didn’t have the same pop. So simply being a tech town isn’t enough.

Take a look at the list, then go back to our initial set of required conditions … low supply, high demand, strong capacity to pay.
Not all those places have a supply problem.  It’s tight supply, high demand caused by population growth, and capacity to pay … a lot … through high pay and stock options.

Here’s a 2017 list of top tech hubs for you to peruse.  You’ll see some familiar names at the top of the list.

But here’s something to think about …

Several top-of-list cities have become so expensive, tech companies are looking for new, more affordable places to move.

So cities lower on the list could be the beneficiaries of migrating and expanding companies.

Your mission (and ours) is to identify those “goldilocks” markets where the conditions are “just right” …

The market needs to be affordable today … and make sense on a cash flow basis, because if the rest doesn’t happen, we need to be able to hold the property long term and grow equity the old fashioned way.

The market needs some limitation to supply expansion, which will manifest in bidding wars, as tech wealth provides capacity to pay beyond easy mortgages.

There needs to be a solid combination of established tech companies and start-ups.

That’s where competition for talent forces small companies to offer options, which the bigger companies then need to respond to.

There are a few markets on this list that we have our eyes on … and some we’ve already developed relationships with.  So stay tuned for updates.

Meanwhile, do your own homework.  As much as we love cash flow, sometimes a big shot of equity can just brighten your whole day … and portfolio.

Until next time … good investing!


 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Property Management – The Key to Profitable Investing

Buying a property is one thing. Operating it is another.

Many investors buy property but fail to think about where their money will really be coming from … the tenants.

If you can’t take care of your property or your tenants, your income stream will be in big trouble. That’s where a property manager comes in.

In this episode, we invite a special guest to discuss the finer points of developing your property management philosophy.

He’ll offer tips on how to find a stellar property manager, what to expect from your property management company, how to manage a team, and MORE.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your philosophical host, Robert Helms
  • His phil-o-what? co-host, Russell Gray
  • Property management professional, Ken McElroy

Listen



Subscribe

Broadcasting since 1997 with over 300 episodes on iTunes!

real estate podcast on itunesSubscribe on Androidyoutube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4

 

 


Review

When you give us a positive review on iTunes you help us continue to bring you high caliber guests and attract new listeners. It’s easy and takes just a minute! (Don’t know how? Follow these instructions).

Thanks!


Why do real estate investors need a property manager?

We want to make it really clear … property managers are the unsung heroes of the real estate business.

As a real estate investor, your money is coming from your tenants.

Property managers interact directly with tenants. A good property manager will maximize the return on your investment by finding … and retaining … paying tenants.

If you’re a new investor, you may be fulfilling the role of property manager yourself. As your investments increase, however, you’ll soon find it necessary to outsource property management tasks to someone else.

Every real estate investor is running a business. If you want to grow your business, you need to make sure that every vital function is scalable as you move up the ladder and acquire new investments.

Overall, scalability means two things:

  1. Making sure that every aspect of the business you handle personally is either scalable (you can handle more of it as you get more properties) or can be delegated
  2. Making sure the people you rely on are also scalable

Make sure the system you set up has redundant life support systems. In other words, if one part of the system fails, you have a back-up plan to ensure everything is running smoothly and your cash flow won’t be interrupted.

And make sure your property manager has a back-up plan too and won’t be overwhelmed when you add to their workload.

Your property manager is essential to your process.

We’d caution you to consult with property managers BEFORE you even purchase a property … they have their fingers on the current state of the market and know what’s happening now.

And make sure you are not only thinking about how your property manager can help YOU, but also how you can help your property manager.

What does a property manager do, exactly?

Property managers are responsible for two essential tasks:

  1. Finding, vetting, and placing tenants
  2. Providing ongoing support for the tenants and property

Different property managers have different philosophies on how to fulfill these tasks.

You can approach working with your property manager in several different ways:

  1. Establish your own policies and require the manager implement them
  2. Pick the right person and let them do their job, using their own established policies
  3. Work with your property manager to establish a routine that’s somewhere in between.

Whichever route you choose, you want to keep your main goals in mind … to keep your property manager happy, to keep your tenants happy so they stick around, and to keep your property in good shape … and, just as important, to make sure your cash flow is stable.

Sometimes, the best option can be trusting your manager’s experience and letting them decide maintenance and marketing strategy.

Picking a property manager can be tricky, but the VERY LAST criteria you want to use when shopping for a good manager is price.

DON’T pick the cheapest property manager.

If your property manager is poorly paid, they’ll be unmotivated to do a good job, and you’ll end up losing more than you save.

Don’t begrudge your property manager the money they get for doing the easy jobs, like handling long-term tenants.

You want your property manager to be happy … it’s a win-win for both of you.

The bottom line is that real estate is a people business, not a property business.

Your managers and tenants aren’t widgets. Value them, and they’ll value you.

Want to help your property manager without giving them a raise? Consider referring them to other investors in the market for a manager.

Referring a good person or company is a win-win-win for you, your investor friend, AND your property manager.

Pro tips for property management

Ken McElroy started managing properties as a college kid who wanted a free place to stay.

Today, he runs a 250-person property management company that manages properties in Washington, Oregon, and California.

We asked him what he’s learned about property management over the years. Here are some key questions and answers:

What are the basics of finding a good property manager?

First, look for experience. Collecting rent is harder than you think.

Second, look for people who can hold down the rules without being too confrontational.

What should investors expect from good property management?

Two things:

  1. The return you budgeted for
  2. No issues

Ideally, Ken says, there should be no reason for you to call your property manager … in other words, your property manager should be responsible and responsive enough to handle issues as they arise and get you your return.

How do you manage a large team?

Ken’s company employs 250 people who work at the corporate office or on the ground at the properties.

“The key to everything is communication,” Ken told us.

One of his strategies is to have on-site managers hold daily meetings with all staff members, including workers responsible for maintenance, landscaping, and leasing.

Is it better to outsource maintenance and repair services or hire in-house teams?

This comes down to what the residents need.

Retention comes first, says Ken, and to retain tenants, managers want to handle any issues immediately.

A tenant will not want to stick around if you don’t handle a broken heater or jammed plumbing as quickly as possible.

Whether in-house vs. outsourced is better ultimately comes down to what strategy will allow your property manager to solve problems immediately.

What’s your client retention strategy?

Ken implements a policy of making sure one of his employees reaches out to every resident, every month.

He also hired a relationship manager to contact new tenants about the move-in process right away.

And he has his team reach out to tenants well before their lease is up … six months before, in fact … to check in and get tenants thinking about renewing their lease.

He shoots for a 50 to 60 percent retention rate.

What kind of tenant screening do you do?

Ken runs a criminal background check and a sex offender check. Someone with terrible credit and multiple evictions is obviously not the ideal tenant.

What advice do you have for new investors?

Going into property management as a new investor with no prior knowledge can be a recipe for disaster.

If you really, truly, have the time and can show up, you could successfully be both owner and property manager, says Ken.

But if you’re just doing it to save money or don’t have time to have your boots on the ground, disaster is a certainty, not a possibility.

The golden rule of property management

We love talking to Ken because he has a “No BS” policy. He has a ton of experience, and he’s not afraid to share it.

He’s also always looking to learn. For example, he’s been incorporating social media into his marketing strategies over the past few years and is always looking to learn how to use new technology.

If you want to read a whole book of tips and tricks, we highly recommend you check out his book, The ABCs of Property Management.

Looking for more property management advice? Check out Terry’s Tips for Happy Tenants, a report compiled by business owner Terry Kerr that you can find on our website.

Want to know our golden rule for flawless property management? Treat each tenant like they’re gold.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

When it rains, it pours …

If you’re a mass consumer of financial punditry as we are, you’ve probably heard the term “black swan”. 

In the context of investing, a black swan is some completely unexpected event that has a substantial impact on financial markets and investors …

… like back-to-back mega-hurricanes which wreak many hundreds of billions of dollars of damage.

Even as the millions of affected people are working through the enormous task of sorting through the damage and cleaning up the mess …

… investors far away from the stricken areas are assessing the potential ramifications of these huge and unexpected events.

As we discussed in a recent broadcast, there’s certainly opportunity and a role for investors to play in helping these areas bounce back from disaster.

But it could be the affliction isn’t purely physical.

Consider this recent CNBC headline … 

Harvey’s hit to mortgages could be four times worse than predicted—and then there’s Irma

“As many as 300,000 borrowers could become delinquent on their loans after Hurricane Harvey …”

“The sheer volume of homes hit by Hurricane Irma will likely cause an increase in mortgage delinquencies as well …”

The article references a report produced by Black Knight Financial Services … so we took a look and found these notable excerpts:

More than 3.1 million properties are now included in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas, representing approximately $517 billion in unpaid principal balances.”

“Harvey-related disaster areas held 1.18 million properties – more than twice as many as with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – with a combined unpaid principal balance of $179 billion.”

That’s $696 billion of mortgages that could potentially go bad because property owners are underinsured, have negative equity, or are owned by displaced people in financial distress.

For context, according to this 2007 article from Associated Press:

“Subprime mortgages totaled $600 billion last year [2006], accounting for about one-fifth of the U.S. home loan market. An estimated $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages are currently outstanding.”

In other words, the value of outstanding mortgages on ONLY those properties inside the disaster areas is over half of what the TOTAL of ALL subprime mortgages were leading into the 2008 financial crisis.

But, you say, all those mortgages aren’t sub-prime.  Prime borrowers wouldn’t walk on their mortgages … potentially triggering another debt crisis … would they?

Of course, no one knows what property owners affected by the CURRENT crisis will do … or how helpful banks and the government will be this time …

… but thanks to a research report by the National Bureau of Economic Research, we know the REAL reason people defaulted on their mortgages during the 2008 crisis was … lack of equity.

“ … data show that the crisis was not solely, or even primarily, a subprime sector event.”

“… but … a much bigger and broader event dominated by prime borrowers …”

“Current LTV is a powerful predictor of home loss, regardless of borrower type.” (LTV is loan-to-value)

“… the role of negative equity remains very powerful.”

Basically, people who own underwater properties (no pun intended … okay, maybe a little intentional) are more likely to walk on their mortgages.

So if that’s true, and these afflicted area properties lose substantial value, it’s possible the next “storm” will be a surge of bad mortgages … to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.

In other words, it’s not just the mortgages on PHYSICALLY damaged properties, but ALL properties in the region whose values are dragged down …

… the way prime borrowers’ properties were dragged down by sub-prime borrowers’ foreclosures in 2008.

Does this mean another bad mortgage fueled financial crisis is looming?

That’s hard to say.  If Wall Street has once again levered to the moon and issued trillions in derivatives against these mortgages, then things could get ugly.

However, this potential crisis is different than last time …

One major problem leading up to the 2008 financial crisis was household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income was sky high.

Back then, borrowers across the United States were tapped out.

Sub-prime borrowers were at the margin.  So when teaser rate loans reset higher, mortgage payments became unaffordable and sub-prime borrowers defaulted.

But these defaults were scattered over many markets because it wasn’t a geographic problem … it was demographic. So MANY markets were affected.

When prices fell, they took the values of prime borrowers’ properties with them … and prime borrowers began to default too … not because of affordability, but because of lack of equity.

Each new default put more downward pressure on home values, eroding more equity, and drawing more prime borrowers into default.

Today, at least according to this chart from the St Louis Fed, debt service to income is much lower.

Of course, if interest rates rise, wages fall, or inflation erodes purchasing power,  once again, borrowers at the margin could default … and that could trigger widespread defaults and collapsing prices.

But that’s a worry for a different day. 

As far as the fallout from these hurricanes, our bet is defaults and falling values are likely to happen primarily only in the affected areas.

However, we also suspect any spike in defaults is likely to be mitigated quickly because of the lessons gleaned from 2008.

Lenders know playing hardball with distressed borrowers only makes the problem worse. We’re guessing they’ll be much more flexible with loan workouts and short sales this time.

And because this is a physical disaster, not a financial disaster … government aid is likely to be fast and generous … at least on behalf of homeowners.

Plus, Uncle Sam knows if they don’t put out the fire fast, it could quickly spread and burn up their banker buddies.  We doubt they’ll let that happen.

Better to bail the bankers out BEFORE an implosion by helping afflicted property owners and preventing price crushing foreclosures.

So … with all that said, we think there could be some serious TEMPORARY downward pressure on prices …

…and opportunities for private investors to step in with fresh funds, pick up some bargains, and help distressed property owners out of untenable situations.

That’s because owners of investment properties may not get the same level of help as owner-occupants.  They’ll need to turn to private capital for assistance.

Fortunately, both Houston and most of the affected markets in Florida were strong investment markets before the disasters.

And in spite of the horrific damage, most of the basic market fundamentals remain unchanged.  So when rebuilt, they’ll probably solid investment markets.

Even better, these areas are likely to see a spike in economic activity as money is invested in reconstruction.  A lot of money will be pouring into these regions.

So we’re watching these areas carefully … because when the window of acquisition opportunity opens, it may only last for a short while.

Until next time … good investing!


 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Impact of Zoning Policy on Prices and the Path of Progress

Zoning, zoning, zoning.

It’s a big deal in cities like San Francisco and New York … but what is it, and what impact does it really have on YOUR real estate investments?

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, we’ll discuss the way zoning can limit available land and have a huge impact on supply and demand cycles.

To zone in on this issue, we invited a special guest to present his take on how zoning has affected property markets in the U.S.

Listen in! You’ll hear from:

    • Your zoning-in host, Robert Helms
    • His zoned-out co-host, Russell Gray
    • Economist and Cato Institute fellow, Randal O’Toole

Listen



Subscribe

Broadcasting since 1997 with over 300 episodes on iTunes!

real estate podcast on itunesSubscribe on Androidyoutube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4

 

 


Review

When you give us a positive review on iTunes you help us continue to bring you high caliber guests and attract new listeners. It’s easy and takes just a minute! (Don’t know how? Follow these instructions).

Thanks!


Supply and demand isn’t so simple

Supply and demand seems like a simple concept. But there are a surprising amount of inputs that affect both sides of the equation.

Capacity to pay can crimp demand by limiting the number of people who CAN buy property, regardless of whether they WANT to buy.

And on the supply side, market factors restrict how much property is available to sell for a particular use.

It can be difficult to identify why markets with thriving demand and appropriate supply are so successful compared to similar but less profitable areas.

But part of real estate investing is identifying factors of success … before an area starts booming. Little details, like school district boundaries and zip codes, can have a huge impact.

Other government designations, like zoning restrictions, can have a monumental effect on housing value.

What happens when zoning rears its ugly head

Zoning has a tangible impact on the cash flow you can generate.

When previously residential areas are rezoned for commercial use, real estate investors can net quite a bit more bang for their buck.

On the other hand, failing to take into account zoning restrictions can completely crush attempts to make a profit.

For example, the owners of one church in Palo Alto found out the hard way that the building wasn’t zoned for commercial use.

In that case, the church had to stop leasing space to a dozen commercial tenants after the city cracked down on them for violating zoning restrictions.

So why do cities have zoning in the first place? And why do some cities have strict zoning requirements, while others, like Houston, have almost none?

Zoning allows the government to plan the future of certain areas in order to maximize the impact of public transportation, designate areas for certain use types, and even increase land values.

It doesn’t matter whether or not you’re a fan of the government butting their heads into property owners’ decisions about what to do with their land.

The truth is, there’s not a lot you can do about it … except use zoning (or the lack thereof) to your benefit.

Zoning is an important factor in the flow of people and money into and out of certain areas.

It’s your job to pay attention to zoning so you can invest in the areas that attract people and money.

Don’t get caught up in the way you want the world to be.

You invest in the real world … and confronting the brutal facts is the only way you can make good decisions.

What a public lands expert has to say about zoning

We were honored to chat with Randal O’Toole, an economist and senior fellow at the libertarian think tank Cato Institute. Randal focuses on urban growth, public land, and transportation issues. He gave us a bit of a backstory on zoning.

Randal said zoning began in 1947 with Britain’s Town and Country Planning Act … and quickly spread across the world.

Randal has strong opinions about zoning … and we appreciate his point of view because we think it’s smart to expose ourselves to a variety of perspectives.

Randal noted that in the U.S., anyone can own land … but what you can DO with that land is limited.

For example, some areas in California are zoned for minimum density. This means owners need to develop properties that will accommodate a certain number of people.

He also noted that there are no markets in the U.S. that are short of land itself … areas with highly reported housing shortages often suffer from a lack of developable land.

In the Bay Area, for example, 17 percent of land has been urbanized and 20 percent is set aside for public parks.

That leaves a whopping 63 PERCENT of land that is privately owned, but undevelopable due to zoning restrictions.

California as a whole is the most heavily populated state in the nation … yet 95 percent of its population lives on 5.5 percent of the state’s land, and it’s not because there isn’t land to spare.

It’s Randal’s belief that government restriction of land use creates a steep supply curve, causing huge fluctuations in pricing and eventually creating bubbles in the housing market.

Zoning requirements created the huge housing bubbles that led to the economic recession of 2008, Randal said, and are the reason that places without land regulation didn’t get hit as hard as other areas.

Randal also noted that zoning results in an exodus of low-income people who can no longer afford markets where zoning has driven values up.

This phenomenon hits vulnerable populations particularly hard, pushing people from highly zoned cities like San Jose to low-zoning cities like Houston.

Relaxing land-use laws, Randal suggested, would reverse the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich and make land ownership more equitable across the board.

But changing those laws will require the courts to take action.

Interested in Randal’s take? You can read more of his work, including books on home ownership and government planning, at the Cato Institute website.

Zoning as a factor in housing market bubbles

We think Randal’s take on the economic crisis of 2008 is pretty fascinating.

We spent all of 2008 trying to figure out what caused the housing bubble. Traditional theories focus on the economy, the federal government, and the banking industry.

Randal has a completely different take. It’s his view that crisis-level housing bubbles are caused by the restriction of property supply, limiting the ability of the market to meet demand.

And Randal’s theory makes sense … the economic crisis affected different markets much more severely, and the ones that were impacted the most had the strictest zoning policies.

Our take is that a combination of economic and zoning factors caused the recession.

Although zoning may seem like a small factor, it’s something we’ll be paying a lot attention to going forward.

How to profit from zoning restrictions

Zoning isn’t necessarily all bad.

Pay attention to zoning restrictions, and you can find BIG OPPORTUNITIES.

When areas that have outgrown their original use are rezoned, investors are presented with a chance to increase property value.

Take the meatpacking district of New York City, for example. An area formerly used for, you guessed it, industrial meatpacking operations, is now a thriving mixed-used area packed with residential and commercial properties.

But sometimes, bureaucracy can’t keep up with the evolution of society.

As an entrepreneurial guy or gal, it’s your job to look at the market and evaluate what it needs.

Don’t get confused or infuriated. Pay attention.

Ask yourself:

  • Is a neighborhood on the verge of transitioning from one use type to another?
  • Can you influence the zoning of a property (for example, by stepping down the zoning)?
  • How can you meet demand and stay within the zoning restrictions of your city?
  • What zoning practices do the markets you’re interested in follow?

From one perspective, zoning can be a big problem. From another, it can create golden opportunities.

It’s up to you to decide which perspective you’ll take.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Dollar death watch emergency conference call …

We just recorded an emergency conference call

 featuring Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson (The Crash Course) and Brien Lundin (Gold Newsletter).

Chris is a big brain PhD who studies economics, eco-politics, and how energy (i.e., oil) affects economics.

Brien is a well-recognized expert in precious metals and mining investing … and spends much of his time studying the gold market.

Both guys are hyper-connected to the smartest economists, investors, and niche experts in the world.  So they’re not just smart, they’re also well-informed.

The conference call centers around China’s recent announcement of plans to back their currency with gold for the purpose of settling oil trade.

This single move could substantially affect oil, gold, the dollar, interest rates, real estate … Uncle Sam’s credit line, budget and influence around the world … and YOUR financial future.

It’s a BIG deal.

China has been advancing … quietly at first, and lately much more overtly … a strategy to UNDERMINE the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

This is HUGE for anyone measuring wealth and income in U.S. dollars.

It’s even more significant for Americans, whose government has been able to use its privileged status to go DEEPLY into debt … seemingly without consequence.

But that could be changing …

Uncle Sam’s unlimited checkbook … as well as his substantial influence around the world … has been largely built on the power of issuing the world’s reserve currency.

That’s because international trade is primarily settled in U.S. dollars, so getting locked out of dollars though U.S. sanctions can choke a nation’s economy …

… just ask Russia, Iran and Venezuela … to name a few who’ve been on the receiving end of this power.

Oil is the biggest component of international trade.

It’s no wonder Russia, who happens to be the world’s largest oil producer, was early to sign on to circumvent the dollar.

Iran (#5 producer) is on the team.  Venezuela (#11 producer), whose economy is 95% oil, also just got on board.

Now the U.S. is talking about kicking CHINA out of the dollar system.

But China’s been preparing to be independent of the dollar

… and has a LONG list of bilateral trade agreements signed with MANY trading partners (as chronicled in this free report on Real Asset Investing).

As the largest oil importer in the world, China has a lot of purchasing power to put pressure on the “petro-dollar” (U.S. dollars used in international trading of oil), as Chris explains in the call.

The petro-dollar has been a major component of the dollar’s power in international trade.  China’s move could be setting the table for a collapse of the petro-dollar.

This isn’t the end of the world …

But it could be a BIG change for dollar denominated investors …  

Those who are aware and prepared can protect themselves and get in a position to win.  Those who aren’t will likely be blind-sided and face potentially horrific losses.

We’ve been watching this develop for years … and now it seems things are picking up speed.

If YOU haven’t been paying attention, it’s time to accelerate YOUR learning and preparation.

Maybe this isn’t as big a deal as we think.  But better to prepared and not have a dollar crisis … than to have one and not be prepared.

The GREAT news is there are lots of smart investors watching this situation very carefully … and there are strategies to hedge … and even profit … from these developments.

So click here now to listen in on the conversation with Chris Martenson and Brien Lundin … as we discuss China, oil, gold, the future of the dollar … and how concerned investors can prepare.

Until next time … good investing!


 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Yet another BRUTAL storm forming …

And the hits just keep on coming …

We know you’d like investing to be simple and drama free.  We do too.

But while real estate investing itself is a simple activity … the economics of real estate investing has become more complex.

There’s a LOT going on in the world.   Some things interconnect by cause, and others by effect … meaning they don’t appear to be related, but then converge.

As Jim Rickards points out repeatedly … economies and ecologies are complex systems.  They are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.

But even though no one can say with certainty what will happen, it’s still important to take precautions when it’s clear SOMETHING BIG is coming …

… just as Floridians watched Irma and prepared, not knowing fully what to expect.  Better to be prepared and not have a disaster than vice versa.

So let’s take a look at what’s forming on the horizon …

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

While the total financial and human impact of these back-to-back disasters is yet to be calculated, one thing’s for sure …  it’s going to be expensive.

Short term disruptions to gas prices and orange futures aside, disasters like these redirect HUGE amounts of capital … which has a ripple effect.

For example, money insurance companies might otherwise put into financing NEW multi-family apartments in other markets …

… will now pour into re-building properties damaged and destroyed in Houston and Florida.

Federal money which might have been focused on infrastructure spending or tax cuts will also be redirected to damage recovery.

And it’s likely the demand for construction labor and supplies will rise, driving up total construction costs in many markets … not just those affected by the storms.

That’s because just as demand for concrete in China creates price increases in the U.S. … the demand for reconstruction resources will probably be felt throughout the United States.

Distressed inventory

Just like the financial disaster of 2008, there may be many problem properties coming out of all this … because many weren’t insured for flood damage.

Federal aid may help some of those homeowners.  It’s less likely such relief is offered to investors who were under-insured.

While it’s no fun to profit from someone else’s loss, there’s a role for profit-seeking capital to play in repairing damaged communities.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see tax breaks, loan subsidies or other incentives offered to entice investment capital to flow into affected markets … like when New Orleans was hit by Hurricane Katrina.

The Debt Ceiling  

In other news, President Trump and Congress managed to get the debt ceiling temporarily increased … while raising the prospect of simply eliminating it all together.

Talk about calling a spade a spade.  The ceiling hasn’t capped spending … ever.

Now billions of dollars are ear-marked for hurricane relief, and everyone can take a short break from “worrying” Uncle Sam might default on his debt.

So it looks like it’s back to over-spending as usual. Not surprisingly, the dollar’s year-long fall has resumed velocity.  

Then again … maybe the dollar’s fall (and gold’s rise) is part of a bigger story which has nothing to do with U.S. business-as-usual deficit spending …

Gold-backed yuan already finding friends

As we recently noted, China announced plans to settle its oil trade in yuan.

And to entice sellers to accept yuan, the Chinese are backing it with that “barbarous relic” … gold.

Days later, oil-rich Venezuela announced they’d start using yuan … and other currencies … to “free us from the dollar.”

It’s no surprise Venezuela would jump at this.  After all, just two weeks earlier President Trump signed an executive order sanctioning Venezuela … whose economy is 95% oil.

But as we note in our Real Asset Investing report, China began its plan to supplant the dollar way back in 2010.  So none of this is new.

And the first country to sign a bilateral trade agreement to “renounce the U.S. dollar” was … wait for it … Russia … followed by Brazil, Australia, and a LONG list of others.

We think this is a HUGE story that few in mainstream financial media are covering.  But we are.

In fact, we’re putting together an emergency conference call with Brien Lundin and Chris Martenson to discuss the ramifications … so stay tuned for that!

Is the U.S. dollar doomed?

This is the big WHY IT MATTERS … especially for Americans and everyone denominating wealth in American dollars.

Like Hurricane Irma, no one can say exactly if, when, or how disaster will strike.  And it’s possible the winds will change and the storm will miss your portfolio.

But what if it doesn’t?  Right now, the winds appear to be headed your way.

Are YOU ready?  Are you getting ready?  Many people don’t even know what ready looks like.  That was us 10 years ago.

It’s a complex problem so there’s no simple solution.  If there was, it probably wouldn’t be a problem.

Peter Schiff has been warning about this for years. As has Robert Kiyosaki, Richard Duncan, Simon Black, Chris Martenson, Jim Rickards, David Stockman … and the list goes on and on.

Each has their own ideas about when … and how to prepare.

There’s no one-size-fits all answer because everyone’s situation, portfolio, investing IQ, advisory network, access to deals, and investment objectives are different.

MISSION: POSSIBLE

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to get informed, educated, connected and activated … as quickly as possible.

And if you think getting educated is time consuming and expensive … it’s nothing compared to being ignorant and apathetic.

When storm clouds form on the horizon, some decide to pay attention and take pre-emptive steps.  There’s no guarantee of safety, but their odds are better.

Others only hope for the best, but don’t prepare for the worst.  Yet the higher the stakes, the more important it is to be preemptively cautious.

The storm warnings are loud and clear … for everyone paying attention.

But storms often approach slowly … and because most blow over … it’s easy (yet dangerous) to assume every storm will.

Slowly at first … then all at once

Longtime listeners know we’ve been watching this whole story unfold for years.

We talked about the very real possibility of China making a run at reserve currency status almost two years ago.  We said then we’d keep you informed and so we are.

Now things are picking up speed.  So if you’re new or haven’t been all that interested … NOW is the time to accelerate your understanding.

If you’ve read this far, we trust you’re interested and concerned … as you should be.

So we STRONGLY encourage you to SERIOUSLY consider attending BOTH Brien Lundin’s New Orleans Investment Conference (coming up FAST!) and The Real Estate Guys™ 2018 Investor Summit at Sea™.

These events each feature lots of big brains … with critical perspectives every serious investor needs to have to help understand and navigate these stormy times.

Sure, these events are capitalist ventures … we each make some money producing them.

But we’re not after your money … we simply use to it for event costs and to pay some bills along the way.  Your support makes these events possible.

We organize events so we can get brilliant minds in one place at one time.  And the only way to make it affordable for us … and you … is to share the cost with hundreds of others.

So yes, we need your help.  And in exchange YOU get access too!

With that said, these events are happening with or without you. Your absence or presence, while nice for us, could be LIFE-CHANGING for YOU … and that’s true of most important ideas, opportunities and relationships.

So with the winds of sea change blowing fiercely on the horizon, it’s a good time to consider carefully whether or not investing in preparation is a good idea.

We think it is.

Until next time … good investing!


 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

The Role of Investors in Bouncing Back from Disaster

We’re sure you’ve noticed the upheaval certain areas of the U.S. … it’s been hard to miss.

Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma have swept Texas, Florida, and the Caribbean, leaving a path of destruction in their wake.

Every natural disaster brings a certain amount of tragedy, and our sympathies go out to those who are hurting from the storms.

But we’re heartened to see communities coming together in the aftermath to help heal damage … and we think real estate investors can play a role in building communities that are even stronger than before the storms.

Listen in to this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show to hear us brainstorm ideas about how investors can help … and how they can prepare for future disasters.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your disaster-pro host, Robert Helms
  • His disaster-prone co-host, Russell Gray

Listen



Subscribe

Broadcasting since 1997 with over 300 episodes on iTunes!

real estate podcast on itunesSubscribe on Androidyoutube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4

 

 


Review

When you give us a positive review on iTunes you help us continue to bring you high caliber guests and attract new listeners. It’s easy and takes just a minute! (Don’t know how? Follow these instructions).

Thanks!


Finding opportunities in the midst of tragedy

Perhaps it makes you uncomfortable to think of profiting while people are suffering.

That’s okay. In fact, it’s more than okay … it means you have the right intentions.

But bringing your skills on to the scene after disaster has struck isn’t simply opportunistic.

By getting involved, you’re solving problems and adding value. This is the sunny side of capitalism.

You can make a fair profit … and make a difference too. Just make sure you’re doing the right thing for the right reason.

Remember … the flip side of every problem is an opportunity.

In the aftermath of a disaster, there are myriad opportunities.

Investors can renovate flooded and damaged houses. Some houses will be lost causes until an investor decides to step in and put some capital to work.

But the opportunities don’t stop there.

Out of necessity, huge disasters involve a large displacement of people. Investors can create new housing situations for displaced people.

And disasters also effect the local economy. Jobs are affected, causing a ripple effect for entire communities … including landlords whose tenants’ jobs are affected.

Finding ways to revitalize local communities and create jobs can minimize damage and create huge amounts of good.

Smart choices at opportune times

Getting involved simply because there is an opportunity isn’t always the smartest choice. Make sure you’re getting involved because it makes sense and it’s the right choice for YOU.

Investors have to know that after a major disruption, banks, government agencies, and other financial institutions may create incentives to sweeten the deal and get people involved.

After Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana government created a “go zone” with adjusted depreciation rates.

These incentives can make investing in disaster-struck areas a smart idea … but we’d warn you to never let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

It’s easy to get caught up in a temporary disruption and make a long-term commitment without realizing that circumstances may revert to what they were pre-incentives.

With that said, Houston is a favorable market … it’s landlord friendly, with many major industries creating jobs.

Most of the things that make Houston make sense haven’t changed. And if you want to invest there, there’s no better time than now.

It may be smart to be the first to make a move … while everyone else is still panicking.

Putting money to work by investing

Let’s look at properties that fall into distress.

Maybe the owners got stuck in a bad situation. Investors can step in pre-foreclosure, buy the home, rehab the property, and put it back into service.

You’re doing good by helping the owners before they’re foreclosed on, and you’re making the neighborhood a better place … all in one fell swoop.

You’re making a difference on the micro scale. The same idea works on the macro scale … when disaster strikes a whole community instead of a single person.

Disaster-struck cities will have blighted areas. Many may have been functionally obsolete even before the storm.

Now is the time to redevelop and rebuild … to create great neighborhoods where none existed before.

It wouldn’t surprise us to see entire neighborhoods change composition if real estate investors have the good sense to identify trends and get in on investment opportunities early.

A smart syndication opportunity

Perhaps you want to help pick up the pieces … but you’re not sure where to find the capital.

Incentives can help. You may also want to consider community banks, who will be eager to get investors on the scene as early as possible.

There’s lots of capital out there. Not all of it has to come from banks, though … syndication is another great option.

Running syndication deals in disaster-struck areas gives people a great opportunity to put a chunk of cash to work. Instead of donating a small amount and getting nothing back, investors can see their money do good … and also make a decent profit.

Entrepreneurs look for a market problem and figure out a way to solve it … profitably.

Look for ways to solve problems instead of despairing about everything that’s gone wrong.

Preparing for the next disaster

A big part of dealing with disasters … perhaps the biggest … is being psychologically and financially ready to step in when the next opportunity comes along.

Always be prepared. If you own properties, make sure you have the proper insurance in place.

Never risk 100% of your net worth. Always ask whether you’re taking too much risk before jumping in to a deal.

If you want to be a first responder next time disaster strikes, it’s smart to have a source of capital ready to deploy when the right opportunity comes up.

If you know you won’t have enough capital on your own but think you’re the right person to syndicate a deal for other investors, build your network before the right opportunity comes along.

Build your brand and your credibility. That way, you’re not running around looking for people to invest when the time is right.

Just like the Boy Scouts, we’d encourage you to always be prepared.

Make sure you’re aware of all possible downsides. Don’t go in looking for the upside first.

Beware of trick ponies. In the words of Warren Buffet, “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1.”

That doesn’t mean you should be afraid to jump in when the time is right … absolutely move while the situation’s still hot, but make sure you’re making a smart, calculated risk.

And don’t bet the farm on a single deal or market.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

China, gold, oil, the dollar and YOU …

There’s a BIG story developing … something we’ve been tracking for years …

… which might be about to create a SEA CHANGE for investors all over the world … including YOU.

Here’s a headline you SHOULD be aware of but might have missed …

China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold – Nikkei Asian Review, September 1, 2017 

There’s SO much to say here, it’s hard to know where to start.

We’ll hit some highlights … and refer you back to some of our previous coverage of this VERY important topic.

First, let’s quickly consider …

WHY this matters to real estate investors … 

If you denominate your net worth, assets, debt, or income in U.S. dollars, then you should care VERY MUCH about the future and health of the dollar.

Ditto if you utilize debt or care about the impact of interest rates (and you should) … on your mortgages, the stock and bond markets, as well as the overall economy.

And if you’re an American or invest solely in the U.S., the health of the U.S. dollar and economy should be of even GREATER interest to you.

So yes, what China is doing with gold and oil matters a LOT to real estate investors … especially in the United States.

What’s the big deal?

First, this recent move by China is the latest in a long series of moves they’ve been making to undermine the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

This is something we’ve been tracking since 2009, when we first read about China’s concerns about U.S. debt and interest rate policy.

We continued to track China’s actions and made this the focus of our remarks in our 2013 presentation at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

Shortly thereafter, we expanded on the situation in our special report on Real Asset Investing.

We’ve also talked about it on our radio show and in our blog.

So if you’re new to this whole subject, we recommend you go back and review those reports, broadcasts and blogs.

For now, just understand China has been overtly, aggressively and systematically working to undermine the U.S. dollar’s uniquely powerful role in global finance.

This latest move is a HUGE next step in unseating the dollar’s dominance.

The rise and (potential) fall of the U.S. dollar …

If you’re unfamiliar with U.S. dollar history, schedule some time to study it.  It’s too big a topic to unpack here.

For now, we’ll simply point out that the U.S. dollar was originally backed by gold from its inception and when it ascended into its role as the world’s reserve currency at Bretton Woods in 1944.

The gold backing was broken in August 1971 when then-U.S. president Richard Nixon defaulted on Bretton Woods.  Gold soared and the dollar crashed.

The U.S. quickly cut a deal with Saudi Arabia … where the Saudis would use their influence to force oil shipments to be settled in U.S. dollars.

This “petro-dollar” deal created a huge and persistent demand for dollars …

… and protecting the petro-dollar has been a focus of U.S. foreign and trade policy ever since.

To further bolster the dollar, then-Fed chair Paul Volcker jacked-up interest rates to over 20%, which had a profound impact on the U.S. economy … and real estate.

All this to say … gold, oil, the dollar, and interest rates all impact each other … and have been VERY important to maintaining U.S. dominance around the world.

So it’s no surprise other countries looking to increase their influence in the world are interested in all those things … and you probably should be as well.

Chinese currency to be backed by gold …

So let’s take a look at some of the notable statements in the news article …

“Yuan-denominated contact will let exporters circumvent US dollar
“Yuan-denominated gold futures have been traded on the Shanghai Gold exchange as part of the country’s effort to reduce the pricing power of the U.S. dollar

“China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold … could be a game-changer for the industry.”

“… will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions …”

“… China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold in exchanges in Shanghai and Honk Kong.”

Think about this …

When oil exporters … like Iran, Russia and Venezuela… can circumvent the U.S. dollar in oil trade … and get GOLD instead of U.S. paper which can be printed out of thin air …

…which do YOU think they’ll choose?

And how influential will U.S. sanctions be (i.e., getting locked out of the U.S. dollar and banking system) when countries can do business without the dollar?

How important will GOLD become as more and more international trade settles in gold-backed yuan instead of nothing-backed dollars?

How unimportant will dollars become?  Where will the bid move?

Is THIS why gold has been moving up lately?  Is this why the dollar has been falling?

Why did U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin pay “a rare official visit” to Fort Knox and subsequently tweet, “Glad gold is safe!”?  All of the sudden gold is interesting to the Treasury?

Meanwhile, Germany recently completed a repatriation of a big chunk of their gold … ahead of schedule.  Maybe the rush is to pacify voters in the upcoming election … or maybe there’s another reason?

Of course, way back when China began publicly expressing concerns about the U.S. dollar … and taking steps to mitigate its own exposure to dollar denominated assets …

… several countries joined Germany in taking steps to repatriate their gold from foreign hands.  That feels a lot like a “run” on the bank … and it began long before any of the current elections.

Besides, if gold is really just a barbarous relic with no role in modern finance as some claim … then why all the fuss?

As you can see, this all raises a LOT of questions. 

What’s an investor to do?

First, simply understand the fate of the dollar has a PROFOUND impact on anyone who earns, saves, invests or borrows in dollars.

If that’s you, then this is an IMPORTANT topic for YOU to pay attention to.

Next, be encouraged there are investment strategies which you can use to mitigate risk and generate profits … even in the face of a falling dollar.

We discuss some of these in our special report on Real Asset Investing.

Get and stay connected and informed.  That’s why we attend the New Orleans Investment Conference and produce the Investor Summit at Sea.

Right now, it’s more important than EVER to attend events like these.

It’s where you hear from thought leaders, focus deeply on important topics, get into great conversations with like-minded people and subject matter experts …

… and form valuable relationships with people who can help you implement useful strategies.

The WORST thing you can do is ignore it all and hope nothing’s going to change. The world is changing whether you know it, like it, or understand it.

How you choose to respond will determine how it changes for you.

Until next time … good investing!


 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.