Apartment Market Forecast 2018

An essential part of being a real estate investor is finding the perfect combination of market and product type. But markets, product types, and even financing are CONSTANTLY shifting.

How can you read the tea leaves and see what’s in store?

Today, we offer some help in the form of Brad Sumrok. Brad has been investing for 16 years. These days, he also spends a significant amount of time teaching investors how to get into the multi-family space.

In this episode, we discuss choice gems from Brad’s annual Apartment Market Forecast. We’ll also look at what makes a good market and how YOU can get started … or move upwards … in multi-family investing.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your princely host, Robert Helms
  • His jester of a co-host, Russell Gray
  • The apartment king, Brad Sumrok

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Three factors of the perfect market

Let’s begin with some background.

Sixteen years ago, Brad made his first real estate investment. He didn’t start out with single-family homes … No, Brad’s first investment was a 32-unit apartment building.

Today, Brad teaches beginning and potential investors how they too can make a mark in the multi-family space with his popular Rat Race 2 Retirement courses.

Last year, his students purchased 37 apartment buildings in 14 different markets!

Along with his results-producing educational program, Brad produces a yearly Apartment Market Forecast … a data-driven report that looks at which markets in the U.S. are hot for apartment investors … and which are not.

The forecast can be divided into two main parts … old markets that still hold water, and new markets that hold opportunity for multi-family investors.

Brad gave us the run-down of his most important factors for investors.

“When I look at investing, I look at three things,” he says. “The deal, the market, and the management team.”

We asked him to dive into what makes a good market … and why.

Brad said he does tend to like big primary markets in general because of their diverse economies. But he avoids some large markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Boston because of laws that are unfavorable to landlords.

For Brad, landlord-friendly laws and strong economies are two major keys to an ideal market.

Brad says investors can find good deals in the suburbs within an hour of many major markets. While city centers may be too hot right now, surrounding areas have a bit less competition.

Besides landlord-friendly laws, Brad says there are two other major factors investors need to consider … asset appreciation and rent growth.

Together, these factors can help investors choose the perfect market.

Some markets, like Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit, have higher than average cap rates but negative population and job growth.

Investors want to look for a market that boasts positive scores in all three areas. Some of Brad’s top picks for asset appreciation, rent growth, and landlord friendliness are Dallas, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Phoenix.

Many investors worry that even in excellent markets, competition has heated up too much and they’ve missed the party.

To that, Brad says, “If you invest in your education and surround yourself with a good team, the odds are in your favor to make profitable investments.”

Investors need to understand that all ships rise … and sink … with the tide.

In good times, rents and occupancy will be high. And in bad times, apartments are a safe haven because there is always a need for housing.

Choosing and financing properties

What kind of properties does Brad advise his students to invest in?

The answer is simple … B- and C-class assets.

The reason? In central urban cores, there is too much supply and not enough demand, resulting in high vacancies and low yields.

Outside the city core, investors can still buy for less than they can build. And if you choose your market smartly, job and population growth will guarantee a demand for affordable housing.

Brad says he generally advises investors to plan to hold on to a property for at least five years.

And in terms of loans, he notes it’s essential to have predictability in financing. He works with students to help them obtain 10-12 year fixed-rate loans with an 80 percent loan to value.

It can be hard to find that type of financing in smaller markets and for smaller properties.

But it gets easier, says Brad, when investors realize they don’t need to fork up all the money by themselves.

That’s where syndication comes in.

To earn more and work less, turn to syndication

Without syndication, many investors run out of money.

Syndication not only allows investors to do bigger deals … it also offers economies of scale.

Larger properties with at least 60 units allow investors to hire a management company with the right level of cost to benefit.

At that size, management costs usually end up at about 5 percent of income, and possibly less if you have more units.

Plus, you get more data, more support, and more resources … for a smaller percentage of your revenue.

It’s part of what Brad calls “the magic of apartments.” Management costs for single-family homes, by comparison, usually run about 8-10 percent of your gross income.

Why not a 40-unit apartment? Forty units is enough to pay for a full-time person … without fully utilizing their time or efforts. But 60 is just about perfect.

Another benefit of buying big is that you DON’T have to do everything yourself. When you do a syndicated deal with other investors, your main responsibilities shift from the nitty-gritty details to regular communication with your management company about big-picture trends and issues.

The premise of multi-family investing is really the same as single-family … but financing, managing, tenant-landlord laws, inspections, and other factors are a bit different.

All that is learnable, however. To get educated, start by checking out Brad’s webinar. He’ll discuss why apartment investing is great for building passive streams of income, how YOU can get started, and what his top market picks are for 2018.

Investors evolve with education

In Brad’s own words, “Anyone can do it.” He told us there will always be competition, but even in today’s economy, there are still so many markets that make sense.

“Investors just have to step up to the plate and take a swing,” Brad says.

Just as you evolve as an investor, so do markets evolve … slowly, over time. Sometimes the shift happens so slowly … or so suddenly … that investors don’t see it coming.

That’s why folks like Brad are so important. He knows the apartment market space incredibly well, stays up to date … and is always willing to share his knowledge with other investors.

And although not every investor takes the same path to wealth that Brad did, there’s something EVERY investor can learn from Brad’s recommendations and suggestions for what makes a good market and a high-return investment.

As real estate investors, we have to take educating ourselves seriously. Whether that starts with a podcast, article, webinar, in-person event, or a training seminar like Brad’s, education is the one thing that can help YOU become an effective, efficient investor.


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The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

The REAL cause of rising rates …

Maybe it’s just us …

But as we’re preparing for our Future of Money and Wealth conference … (our way of sharing our epic Investor Summit at Sea™ faculty with more people) …

… we keep seeing headlines that make us think there’s more happening in the financial world than just a little stock market volatility …

From Bloomberg on February 7th:

Dollar Will Stay Weak If China Has Its Way, Morgan Stanley Says

There’s SO much we could say about that one headline …

… in which a major U.S. financial institution acknowledges both China’s desireand ability to weaken the almighty dollar.

But we’ll restrain ourselves (for now) and ask a more mundane, but relevant question …

What does a weak dollar mean to real estate investors? 

We’re told a weak dollar is good for U.S. business … because it makes U.S. products cheaper for foreigners to buy with their now relatively stronger currency.

Okay, so maybe that’s good for local economies that depend on exporting.

And maybe it helps landlords in those areas because more export sales might mean more jobs and higher wages for local workers (your tenants).

But a weak dollar also means imports are more expensive for U.S. consumers.  All that stuff made in China now costs MORE for U.S. buyers.

Last time we looked, tenants buy a lot of stuff made in China.  If they’re paying more for it, then they have less money available for rent increases.

So a weak dollar is bad if it leads to consumer price inflation …

And sure enough, from CNBC on February 14th:

Consumer Prices Jump Much More Than Forecast, Sparking Inflation Fears

According to the report …

“Markets reacted sharply to the news, with stocks sliding and government bond yields rising.”

“Bond yields rising” is just fancy talk for rising interest rates.

If you talk to any savvy mortgage broker, they’ll tell you mortgage rates pivot off of 10-year government bonds.

When bond yields go up, so do mortgage rates.

And to no surprise comes this Market Watch headline on February 15th:

Mortgage Rates Rise to Nearly Four-Year High on Inflation Concerns

As Robert Kiyosaki always reminds us, real estate investing is about debt and cash flow.

Your mission is to acquire more of both … but with a positive spread.  So if the debt costs you 5%, you want the cash flow to be at least 2-3% higher.

But when rates are rising, and tenants are being squeezed by inflation, your spread might compress.

Long-time followers know we’ve been advocates of locking rates long term because of the probability rates would turn up.  Now it seems they are.

If the trend continues, short-term adjustable loans could get uncomfortable.

Real estate investors not paying attention may be unprepared for higher rates.

But the mini-news cycle above illustrates an important lesson …

If you understand how these things fit together and their domino effect … you can see them coming … and prepare.

A weak dollar leads to inflation which leads to rising rates.

We could spend a lot more time explaining all that, but that’s the gist of it.

While it played out in the above headlines in just over a week … often these trends chug along over months or even years.

So, it’s easy (but dangerous) to fall asleep at the wheel.

Of course, it isn’t just the 10-year bond that’s signaling dollar weakness.  So is gold (rising), and oil (rising), and even cryptos (exploding).

But as mentioned earlier, for us … the MOST interesting part of the story is China … something we’ve been talking about for over four years.

Morgan Stanley, as reported by Bloomberg, essentially acknowledges that China’s economic size and strength are now able to influence the dollar … and YOUR interest rates.

Of course, U.S. policy also plays a substantial role, and piling on gobs of debt isn’t helping.

The point is that the future of money and wealth is evolving rapidly right before our very eyes … in ways far more profound than just routine economic cycles.

What’s an investor to do?

We think the right real estate, structured with the right debt, will prove to be one of the most attractive investments in the months and years to come.

But lazy or naïve investors seeing only “higher wages” and a “strong economy” and position only for sunshine are living dangerously.

Right now, we’re convinced every serious real estate investor should be paying close attention to the future of money and wealth.

That’s not a sales pitch for our event.

We created the event because headlines have been telling us for years something’s coming … and it’s getting closer every day.

So we’re getting in a room with the smartest people we know for two full days to focus on what’s happening and how to play it for safety and opportunity.

Stay alert, informed, optimistic, and pro-active.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Going Bigger with Syndication

In this episode, we’ll be discussing the age-old question … what’s the next step for investors who’ve run out of capital but want to keep growing?

Our answer? Syndication.

Syndication allows investors to move their focus away from earning and saving money toward raising money.

And if you’d rather not spend your time doing deals, syndication is a great option for putting your cash to work … while you do what you love.

But we’ll be honest … syndication is a lot of work.

You need to build an investing plan, understand your market, vet your investors, and know what could go wrong … and right … with a deal.

You need to understand not only the business side of each deal, but the legal side.

That’s why we invited an experienced securities attorney to chat with us about the ins and outs of syndicating.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your secure host, Robert Helms
  • His insecure co-host, Russell Gray
  • Securities attorney, Mauricio Rauld

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What is syndication? What is a security?

Mauricio Rauld is the founder and CEO of Premier Law Group. A long-time acquaintance of ours, he’s worked with us to vet many syndication deals.

We’ve watched Mauricio evolve into an experienced securities attorney, and we trust him to answer all our syndication-related questions.

Let’s start with the basics.

First, what is syndication? Any time you are pooling resources … usually money or capital … to do a deal, you’re involved in syndication.

Next, when does securities law come in? If you’re the one running the deal, the minute you take a check from someone, your transactions fall under the realm of the securities law.

The structure of the deal doesn’t matter … you could write out a profit-share agreement or simply shake hands with your investors, and you’d STILL be dealing with a security.

We asked Mauricio what investors need to be aware of when it comes to securities law and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC).

He said that when dealing with a security syndicators have three choices:

  1. Register the security with the SEC.
  2. Find an exemption so you don’t have to register.
  3. Avoid the two options above and go the illegal route.

Needless to say, we don’t recommend the third option!

Most investors are able to choose the second path because the SEC offers multiple exemptions. To get your mind around the major exemptions, Mauricio recommends working with an experienced securities attorney.

An attorney will help you catch any mistakes … before you’re head-deep in a deal and it’s too late to fix your errors.

Like the saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

If you’re going into a syndicated deal as an investor, there are some preventive steps YOU can take as well. Mauricio names two main steps:

  1. Do your due diligence when it comes to the deal sponsor. Check their track record and make sure they have some successful deals under their belt.
  2. Review the sponsor’s documentation and paperwork. Missing items can be a huge red flag, Mauricio says. A sponsor who doesn’t give you the appropriate disclosure documents is cutting corners.

Syndicators need to draft and publish a private placement memorandum before doing a deal. This document essentially names all the ways a private investor could lose their money.

Private placement memos are specific to each individual deal. To draft one, syndicators need to work with an attorney, who will evaluate all the ways a deal could go wrong.

This documentation is critical whether you’re the syndicator or the investor.

If you’re the syndicator, make sure your lawyer sits down with you and gets specific details about the deal so they can list every possible risk in the memo.

If you’re an investor, it’s wise to review this document and the deal itself with your lawyer so you are aware of possible risks before you put your dollars in.

How should syndicated deals be structured?

There are two parts to syndicating a deal.

First you have to raise money, find the deal, and make sure you’re in compliance with securities law … and then you have to figure out what you’re actually doing with the money you earn.

We asked Mauricio to talk about how syndicators can structure syndicated deals.

He said that first, syndicators have to look at whether they’re structuring a deal for equity or for debt. Syndicators should also look to see what their investor pool is looking for.

And syndicators should keep in mind that a deal may be structured differently while there’s cashflow versus after the property is refinanced or sold.

When it comes to structuring your deal, Mauricio reminds syndicators to ALWAYS disclose, disclose, disclose. Any way you or your spouse are compensated needs to be disclosed to the SEC.

This is where a securities attorney comes in handy, says Mauricio. If you’re a syndicator, a good specialized attorney will spend the time up front to understand your deal and help you structure it … while making sure you disclose the proper info.

Now on to specific deal structures.

The most basic deal structure is to split the profits between syndicator and the investor pool.

The standard split is 80-20 … 80 percent for investors and 20 percent for the syndicator. But that percentage is malleable depending on the deal itself.

Another option is a “preferred return.” This means a certain percentage of the original amount invested is set aside for the investor … say, 7 percent, for example. The investor gets all the profits up to that percentage, and the syndicator gets anything beyond that.

You can also do a “waterfall.” This means setting up different tiers … up to a certain amount, the profit is split 60-40, and then after that, 70-30, and so on.

Whichever deal structure you choose, there are two basic guidelines you should follow, says Mauricio:

  1. Keep it simple. A waterfall structure with 10 different tiers is more work for you and more complicated for investors to understand.
  2. Keep it fair. Evaluate the deal structure based on how much work you’re putting in versus how much capital investors are contributing.

One of our favorite things about syndication is that there are basically unlimited options for the type and structure of deals you do!

Interested in building a syndication business but not sure where to start? Mauricio recommends starting by farming for potential investors so you have an investor pool to pick from when you’re ready to do a deal.

He also recommends making sure your entity and asset protection structure is in place. This can be done BEFORE you find your deal.

Want more information? Click here to check out Mauricio’s exclusive webinar, Practicing Safe Syndications. And consider attending our Secrets of Successful Syndication Seminar, where Mauricio is a staple speaker annually.

We wish you safe syndicating!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

When worlds collide …

Real estate investing is a VERY different approach to wealth building than paper asset investing.  You could say they’re two different worlds.

But the paper world has far more impact on real estate investing than many real estate investors realize.

And when those worlds collide, it’s often a painful shock to real estate investors.

The 2008 financial crisis is a perfect case in point.

When the paper world started securitizing mortgages on Main Street real estate, and then created derivatives from those securities in order to place HUGE paper bets in Wall Street’s casinos …

… when the bets went bad it decimated Main Street real estate.  MANY surprised real estate investors were CRUSHED.

Of course, central banks around the world fired up printing presses and papered over the whole mess … reflating stocks, bonds, and real estate.

Those who got in the game AFTER the crash … or got in position BEFORE the crash … have ridden that reflation wave to build big fat balance sheets.

So it’s all good … right?

But there’s been some tremors in financial markers which make us think it’s a good time to check our financial earthquake preparedness.

And those early warning signs are in the PAPER world …

You’ve probably noticed the stock market’s been jittery.  Which is actually great for real estate … because more people are interested in it, and rightfully so.

But the stock market’s gyrations have baffled many financial TV talking heads.

Earnings are up, they say.  Jobs are up.  Hourly wages are up. Unemployment is down.  Taxes are down.  It’s all good … they say.

And YES … all those things are good.  Good for stocks.  Good for real estate.

But … the dollar has been falling … against gold, against the yen, and certainly against Bitcoin.

What might that mean?

It could that a weak dollar (in spite of a strong economy) means … for whatever reason … big dollar holders are selling.

Our friend Simon Black recently wrote an interesting piece on this topic.

But understanding the causes and opportunities is a BIG discussion … so we’re dedicating two full days with top experts to dig into it.

We realize compared to shopping for properties, negotiating deals, arranging financing, and getting properties prepped for sale or rent … all this financial jabber isn’t very exciting for real estate investors.

We get it.

We spend most of our time chasing opportunities as well.  Offense is fun.  And most of the events we promote focus on building wealth through real estate.

But twice a year, at our annual Investor Summit at Sea™ in the spring, and the New Orleans Investment Conference in the fall …

… we bring the worlds of real estate, paper, and commodities all together to compare notes, and get outside our real estate paradigm.

At the very least, we learn new things, meet new people, discover other interesting investment opportunities … and have a good time.

That’s a good investment right there.

Of course, if we pick up just one great idea, relationship, or insight that helps us avoid a problem or grab an opportunity sooner … it’s a GREAT investment.

We found the BEST real estate deal of our lives … at a conference.  Just sayin’…

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

It’s fun to LOVE the right real estate …

For Valentine’s Day we thought we’d muse on why the right real estate is easy to love.

Of course, the operative word is “right” … as in Mr. or Miss “Right” …

… because anyone who’s been in a bad relationship knows it’s hard to have the right relationship with the wrong person.

And the same is true with real estate.

Right now, stock investors are realizing their investment vehicle of choice is a little bi-polar.  When it’s good, it’s great.  But when it’s not … watch out below!

As we’ve already noted, we view the volatile stock market as a wonderful gift.

And while we don’t want to judge anyone else’s relationship … for us, it refreshes our love affair with the right real estate.

So let’s take a look at some clues in the news about where we might find the right real estate.

Retail vs Industrial vs Multi-Family

As is often the case, the flip-side of a problem is an opportunity.  In the case of the allegedly Amazon fueled retail apocalypse, the flip-side winner is industrial.

In fact, this NREI Online article reports on their survey of commercial real estate investors … and some interesting points are raised …

“ … the industrial sector is giving multi-family a run for its money.”

“ … whether it comes to occupancy rates, rents or even cap rates, sentiment has improved …”

“A majority [of respondents] think [the expansion cycle] will last more than a year …”

Now if you’re not a commercial property investor (yet) … there’s still useful insights here for you too.

For residential real estate investors … both single- and multi-family … it’s smart to pay attention to the flow of industrial and office investment.

After all, your residential tenants need places to work.

So when you see capital flowing into industrial and office properties, it can be a good sign for local area employment.

The survey also found …

“… a majority of respondents (64 percent) said warehouse / distribution facilities in traditional locations would be most in demand going forward.”

And quoting one of the respondents …

“E-commerce has resulted in changes to product shipment from distribution centers, as opposed to from retailers.”

These surveys are interesting because they represent fairly current viewpoints of marketplace actors.  These aren’t economists, researchers, or academics.

The respondents are the people with the checkbooks … who are deciding whether and where they’ll invest … or not.

So it’s one thing to listen to experts speculate on what decision-makers will do … and another to hear directly from market participants.

It’s just another of the MANY reasons why we attend live conferences where we can have “man in the market” conversations …

… often with people who have no marketing agenda … and are willing talk candidly about what they’re doing and why.  Those conversations are gold.

While far from scientific, it’s a great way to get a sense of a market, sector, or demographic … and affirm whether or not some pundit’s prediction has any real-world validity. 

Shift Happens

As e-commerce changes how retail businesses operate, their landlords feel the pain too.

But as the retail business shifts from walk-in to delivery service … while challenging for mall operators,  it means a big boom for distribution …

.. .and the markets, properties, and jobs that make distribution happen.

We’ve been longtime fans of distribution towns like Memphis and Dallas for this reason.

Other great things about distribution include the creation of working class jobs (great for tenants),  in relatively affordable areas (better ROI on properties).

And those jobs are impossible to offshore because the work needs to be done near the consumers.

Of course, we hope President Trump’s pledge to bring manufacturing back to the United States works out “bigly”.

So we’re watching for the revival of rust-belt markets.  If we see commercial money move in, then residential is probably not too far behind.

But until manufacturing brings the front-end jobs back to the U.S., distribution is the other end of the supply chain.

After all, when all the stuff made in China and Mexico arrives in the United States, it needs to be distributed to the local consumers.

Commercial Investing … Not Just for the Rich

If you’ve ever gone shopping for a warehouse, big apartment complex, or mobile home park, you probably noticed they’re a little pricey.

But you don’t need to feel left out.

The secret to going bigger is syndication.  It’s a way to take your real estate investing hobby and turn it into a full-time enterprise … with a lot of upside.

It’s not as complicated as it seems because you can even hire the experts and mentors you need in whatever niche you choose.

We’ve seen many mom-and-pop investors build big multi-million-dollar portfolios simply by sharing their deals with private investors.

Of course, the other side of the opportunity is to be one of those “silent partners” in a syndicated deal.

So we created the Investor Registry to help private investors find the kind of opportunities they’re interested in.

Looking for Mr. (or Miss) Good Deal

Only the older folks will have any idea what that means … but everyone who’s ever date to find a good match knows it can be a minefield.

And yet, almost everyone does it anyway.

We realize the urge to invest isn’t as compelling as … well, you know …

But the point is there’s some work to do to find the investment markets, sectors, and opportunities best for you.  No one can do it for you … and it won’t happen by itself.

But like true love … when you find it, it’s awesome and totally worth the effort.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Take What the Market Gives You

The volatile stock market is giving real estate investors who want to raise money for real estate investing a gift making it a great time to get into syndication.

 

Stock Market Volatility Creates Opportunity for Real Estate Investment Syndication

We all want life on our terms.  The perfect opportunity at just the right time … where we don’t have to think, work, or go out of our way to hit it big.

Be honest.  If you didn’t get in (and out) of Bitcoin at the right time, aren’t you just a LITTLE jealous of those who did?  We are.

But even many of those Bitcoin millionaires have taken it on their crypto-chin since the easy money train went off the rails.

The market giveth and the market taketh away.

Tom Brady said it best after the Super Bowl …

“Losing sucks.  But if you want to win, you have to play the game.”

… and risk losing.  Of course, we’re pretty sure Tom didn’t lose too much.  And if you’re playing the right game, even losers can come out okay.

That’s what we love about real estate.

Sure, it’s not as exciting as the roller-coaster rides of speculative exchange traded assets like cryptos, stocks, bonds, and ETFs.  But you can still make BIG money with real estate playing a very conservative game.

Right now, the market is reminding lots of paper- and digital-asset speculators that big ups often come with big downs.  So people with lots of money in those markets are realizing safer havens are pretty attractive when the tide turns.

And that’s a GIFT TO YOU …

Because when you know how to make (or find) boring, reliable, stable, dependable returns … of 8-20% … with a time-tested asset like real estate … YOU are a HOT commodity.

We’ve been saying for years this is a GREAT time to become a real estate syndicator.  And it just keeps getting better.  There are TRILLIONS of dollars invested in paper assets through brokerage and retirement accounts … and folks who’ve been in those markets a while are sitting on some fat gains … BUT they’re nervous … and rightfully so.

Some have already moved to cash to play it “safe” … and because they don’t know what else to do.  But the dollar’s been weak, and although interest rates are rising, inflation is rising faster … so the net gain on parked cash is negative.  That’s a losing deal.

Enter YOUR big opportunity … syndication.

When stocks tanked in the dot-com bust, billions went into real estate for safety with yield and a hedge against inflation. 

Sure, real estate got a black eye in 2008 … even though it was a credit market problem and not a real estate problem.  But smart people realized the fundamental need for real estate didn’t end with the financial crisis … and many smart investors scooped up bargain properties, just as rental demand increased because of the financial crisis.

Real estate investors have made a lot of money over the last ten years … just like stock investors.  But right now, stock investors are being reminded of the volatility of the stock market and the relative stability of real estate.

Give Nervous Stock Investor the Gift of Real Estate Syndication

Stock investors are RIPE for offers to invest in real estate.

And when you learn the secrets of successful syndication, YOU can attract many millions of dollars from frightened stock investors into the safer haven of real estate.  Best of all, syndication allows you to become wealthier helping wealthy people grow and protect their wealth.  It’s an epic win-win.

Often in business and investing the best play is simply to take what the market’s giving you.  Right now, it seems to us the opportunity to raise money for real estate deals just got even better.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Expert Tips for Navigating Uncertain Times

In uncertain times, we all need a little wisdom to guide us to the right path.

So today, we bring you the words of the wise.

Property prices are continuing to inch upward in many markets. And the stock market is starting to tumble down. How should investors navigate the turmoil?

Listen in to hear from some of the smartest folks we know on their predictions for what the future holds … and their best tips for staying smart and focused in the midst of the storm.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

    • Your expert host, Robert Helms
    • His amateur co-host, Russell Gray
    • Brien Lundin, author of the Gold Newsletter
    • Economist Peter Schiff
    • Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart, authors of Prosper!
    • Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki

 


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Brien Lundin on metals and money supply

Brien Lundin is our go-to expert on precious metals. He writes the Gold Newsletter and directs the New Orleans Investment Conference.

His predictions about the metals market have been spot on. We asked him how he keeps his thumb on the pulse. The short answer? “Experience,” says Brien.

Three decades of reading, researching, and making connections have given Brien enough information to come to the conclusion that, “Metals have settled into a fairly reliable long-term pattern.”

In fact, he says the future for metals is as close to inevitable as possible in the investing world.

High debt in the U.S. and other countries means their currencies will be depreciated, at least to some extent, and that means higher gold prices in the long term, says Brien.

With a predicted three or four rate hikes coming from the Fed in the next year, Brien predicts we’ll continue to have a weaker dollar for several years.

Why should real estate investors be interested in metals? Alternative investments like precious metals allow you to divorce yourself from the levers the government pulls to adjust the economy, says Brien.

Confused about the options? “Roll up your sleeves,” and dive in, says Brien.

Brien also had some words of advice … “Look around you to get the best investment advice.”

One way to do that? Attend the New Orleans Investment Conference. The conference is packed with people looking to learn. Off-mic conversations are part of the package!

Peter Schiff on the global economy and Puerto Rico

“It’s easier than people think to predict the future. The hard part is predicting the ‘when,’” says Peter.

Economists have been predicting a dollar crisis for a while, and Peter thinks we are in the beginning of that crisis … “The dollar is dropping like a stone against the Chinese yuan,” he says.

Why? According to Peter, it’s payback for monetary policy mistakes from the Fed that led to the major economic crises of the past few decades, including the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble.

“As the dollar is falling, prices are rising,” says Peter. Oil prices are up. Bond yields are rising, and that means interest rates are rising too. Peter predicts the combination of rising prices and high interest rates will be too much for the market to bear.

Crisis is coming, he says.

“What’s going to kill us is the government’s cure,” Peter adds. After the real estate bubble collapsed, the government attempted to pump up the market by slashing interest rates … and succeeding in completely re-inflating the bubble. That bubble will make the crisis worse, he says.

Peter has started his own investment fund through Euro Pacific Capital. He aims to help investors diversify out of the U.S. dollar.

Gold stocks have moved up, says Peter. “We are really poised now for major gain.”

And what about Puerto Rico? If you’ve been listening to the show, you’ll know Peter not only invests in Puerto Rico, but lives there too.

“It’s green again,” says Peter. There are some problems due to service providers who have left the island. But overall, “People think it’s worse than it is,” he says.

In fact, Peter thinks there’s more opportunity in Puerto Rico than before Hurricane Maria. Abandoned properties and foreclosures could be the perfect opportunity for investors to step in.

Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart on social capital and the Summit at Sea™

Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart, co-authors of the invaluable book Prosper!, chatted with us about some tangible steps to help YOU prosper.

Key among them is social capital.

“What are your strengths and weaknesses?” asks Adam. “Find people who have complementary skills and can fill in your weaknesses.”

“No one can really have a handle on everything,” Chris adds. In our rapidly changing world, he says it’s wonderful when you can recognize people as kindred spirits … and learn from many points of view.

One way to get around some kindred spirits is to attend our annual Investor Summit at Sea™. In fact, all of the guests in this episode will attend the Summit.

It’s more about context than content, Chris and Adam agree … and we’re sure the context of the Summit will be the environment of your investor dreams.

Robert Kiyosaki on humility and getting around smart folks

Robert Kiyosaki doesn’t believe in school. “The trouble with going to school is that you have to be an expert by yourself, and that keeps you small,” he says.

More important than money or school smarts? “A very smart team” that operates on the basis of mutual respect and trust.

Robert recommends hanging around people who DON’T think they’re the smartest people in the room. Humility is a great tool, he says.

“All coins have three sides. Most people think there’s only one side … theirs,” says Robert. “It’s impossible for a coin to only have one side. Intelligence equals standing on the edge and looking at both sides.”

Like F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

Robert recommends getting around other investors so you can get around a variety of ideas. He recommends the Summit … and you’ll be able to meet him if you come!

Plus, Robert’s wife Kim Kiyosaki will hold a special ladies-only session at the Summit. Robert encourages female investors and partners of investors to attend and learn about why they don’t need a man to get ahead.

Meet and mingle with smart people

No one knows where the future is headed with certainty … but there’s one thing all our smart investor friends are certain about, and that’s the importance of getting around the right people and assembling your team.

Want to reach out? The Investor Summit at Sea™ is the perfect first step.

Unable to attend the entire Summit? Consider joining us on land for the first two days. We’re holding a brand-new event, a conference we’re calling The Future of Money and Wealth.

Hoping to see you there!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Keeping it real in a surreal world …

If you’re a newshawk like us, you’ve probably noticed the world is a little crazy.  Even something as mundane as money and wealth has become weird.

The most obvious case in point is the dramatic rise and retreat of Bitcoin.

In 2017, something triggered a rush of money into Bitcoin … driving it from $1000 in early January to a peak of nearly $20,000 less than a year later.

Pundits are still trying to divine what happened and why.  Of course, what’s just as interesting is how the world reacted.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which is China’s version of the U.S. Federal Reserve, has moved aggressively to crush cryptos.

Okay.  But does that matter if you’re not Chinese or a Bitcoin buyer?  How does any of this relate to Main Street real estate investing?

Patience, grasshopper …

China’s not the only government attacking private cryptos.  Six others have already banned it, though they admittedly aren’t big players.

But India is reportedly about to join the anti-crypto club.  They’re pretty big.

South Korea (home of Samsung, LG and Hyundai) is another biggie that’s floating the idea of banning cryptos.

Of course, legislation isn’t the only way to attack an alternative to government issued currency …

We’ve been listening to precious metals pundits allege that central banks … surreptitiously through their agents … use futures contracts to manipulate the price of gold and silver.

Interesting.  Let’s put on our tinfoil hats and think about it  …

According to this CNBC report, Bitcoin started trading on the futures exchanges on December 18th.

This chart shows Bitcoin’s price peaked at $19,180 on Sunday, December 17th.

But since then, Bitcoin’s been declined sharply … all the way down to under $7000 this week.  That’s a HUGE decline.  And it started December 18th …

Weird.  Probably just a coincidence.

Of course, the story of cryptos and their impact on the future of money and wealth is a MUCH bigger discussion.

But we think it’s safe to say that cryptos are here to stay in some shape or form.

What’s also interesting is how governments are now connecting cryptos to both gold and oil … linkages which are the heritage of U.S. dollar dominance.

Meanwhile, Russia (the world’s largest producer of oil) and China (the world’s largest consumer of oil) have both been accumulating TONS (literally) of gold.

Why?

According to this article in the India Times, “The Chinese central bank is trying to diversify from the US dollar on which it has become overly reliant

(Side note: you might want to think about how reliant YOU are on the dollar … maybe China knows something …)

This article in Russia affirms the role of gold in diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.

Apparently, gold does actually have a role in global economics … even though most Americans think of it as a barbarous relic or merely a trading tool to accumulate dollars.

But major sovereign nations are using gold as a hedge against the U.S. dollar.

Smart.  Turns out 2017 was the dollar’s worst performance in 14 years.

So if Bitcoin and gold each expose the dollar’s weakness … it’s not totally shocking the issuer of dollars, the Federal Reserve, might want to see both Bitcoin and gold prices held down.

We’re not saying the Fed is behind any alleged suppression.  But we’re not saying they aren’t.  We don’t know.

But in this surreal world where we’re not quite sure of the real motivations of those in power, nothing would surprise us.

The bigger questions are … what does it all mean to Main Street investors and how can we position ourselves to both grow and protect wealth in this crazy world?

Here’s some thoughts …

If the dollar is doomed to continue its 100+ year decline … then debt and real assets are your best friend.

Debt lets you pull future dollars into the present, where you can use them at today’s purchasing power (stronger than the future’s) to acquire things of real value.

By “real value” we mean utility …  things that provide permanent and essential service to people.  Food, housing, farmland, energy, and commodities all come to mind.

Of course, when you use debt, you have those pesky payments.

So it’s REALLY nice when you can acquire real assets that produce enough cash flow to service the debt you used to buy them.  They literally pay for themselves.

Naturally, debt-financed income-producing real estate is arguably one of the best investment vehicles in a falling dollar environment.

You can buy it with relatively cheap debt and use the income to service the debt.

Over time, as the dollar falls, the dollar price of the property rises while the debt stays fixed.

Not only that, but a debt-ridden government is highly motivated to perpetuate a weakening dollar (inflation), which benefits all debtors … including YOU.

In other words, using debt aligns your investing with the government’s motivations and likely actions.

Nice.  But it gets better …

Because real estate provides housing for people … who vote, work, and have pitchforks … or in the case of the USA, AR-15s …

…  governments are much more motivated to SUPPORT real estate than attack it.

They might go after cryptos (until they can issue their own).  They might go after gold again.

They might print free money for their friends in Wall Street to blow up paper asset bubbles and drive down interest rates (nice, if you’re a real estate investor).

But if they attack real estate … that hits home (literally) … and it’s a revolution.

That’s why, as we saw in 2008, even when they screw up and real estate is collateral damage to their financial shenanigans …

… governments, central banks, Wall Street, and even corporate America all rally to prop up real estate.

From that stand point, people still hold the power.  And people live, work, and depend on real estate.

So to keep things real in a surreal world, you could do a lot worse than making real estate the anchor of your investment portfolio.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Market Diversification for More Stable Income

One of the most important pieces of advice we give to investors new and old is “Live where you want to live, but invest where the numbers make sense.”

Once you break out of your market comfort zone, you can experience incredible personal and business growth … and build a diversified, stable portfolio.

In this episode, we discuss the various types of markets available to real estate investors … and chat about how to pick a market based on your personal goals.

Listen in! In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your diversified host, Robert Helms
  • His divergent co-host, Russell Gray

Listen



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Broadcasting since 1997 with over 300 episodes on iTunes!

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The two major market types

Let’s start from the top! Investment markets can be categorized into two major types … cash flow markets and equity growth markets.

Whether a market produces strong equity growth or stable rents is a byproduct of supply and demand.

Cash flow markets have a steady demand for rentals from working-class tenants with stable income. These factors combine to create high occupancy rates and reliable income.

These markets don’t sizzle … but they offer steady returns.

On the other side of the coin, markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles are proven, stable equity growth markets. Investors won’t get reliable cash flow in these markets … but if they get in before the market gets hot, they’ll get hefty equity growth.

You can predict the next equity growth markets by looking at markets where the ability to supply new housing is beginning to be restricted.

Buying a property for equity growth is a completely different style of investing than cash flow investing, and it comes with some challenges … like finding properties that make sense, choosing markets with a good probability of growth before they get too hot, and managing your income.

It requires caution … because if you choose the wrong market … or the right market at the wrong time … your investment can go against you.

Of course, these two major market types are two extremes. The reality is that markets fall onto a continuum … and yes, there are markets that combine equity growth and cash flow.

Some markets have the capacity to supply housing as they continue to grow in value. However, inevitably that market will begin to slow down and shift through the cycle.

There are some trade-offs to combining equity growth and cash flow … for example, cash flow isn’t quite as good as prices go up. To evaluate a current market, look at the trajectory of other major markets like New York or even Dallas.

Markets are cyclical, and almost every market evolves the same way. There are four basic stages in a market cycle:

  1. Growth. The market is expanding as more people are drawn to the area.
  2. Equilibrium. After a period of growth, the market slows down and is mostly developed.
  3. Decline. This can happen when a market falls out of favor or loses employers.
  4. Revitalization. The market starts to pick up again when demand increases.

The key? Study markets you want to invest in. Understand there is an evolution process, and even if a market is currently great for cash flow, it can absolutely evolve into an equity market in the future.

How to allocate your real estate assets

You’ve probably heard the saying, “Diversity is a recipe for mediocrity.” And while that rings true in some cases, we think diversity can be your key to a stable portfolio.

Investors can benefit by using a basic asset allocation recipe … and remember, these numbers are yours to fiddle with:

  • 50% of your portfolio should be allocated to solid cash flow markets.
  • 30% should be invested in aggressive equity growth markets that show signs of being in the path of progress, such as supply and demand imbalances.
  • And your remaining 20% should be liquidity funds … dry powder you can have on hand so you can swoop in and pick up great deals when everyone else is strapped.

Here’s a good question … how do investors approach aggressive growth markets?

To leverage an equity growth market, you need to invest while the market is still emerging.

That doesn’t mean investing in brand-new markets … it means looking for markets that are starting to take off with signs of job growth and increasing demand.

You want to avoid being spread too thin across markets … but you also want to be leery about banking on any one type of market. As the saying goes, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”

There are, of course, some advantages to sticking with a single market, like efficiencies of scale. But if you stick to a single market and that market declines, your whole portfolio is affected.

Unique market types

Of course, every market has unique factors, but some markets stand out from the crowd in particularly distinctive ways.

  • The college market.

You can make a great income investing in housing near colleges and universities. It’s a captive market with constant need and a built-in client base … most students have good income durability.

You do have to consider the nature of technology, social trends, and educational trends when investing in a college market, however.

A great resource for information is the college or university itself … they can provide great data on the student population. If you’re careful, this can be a stable market.

  • The retirement market.

Jobs aren’t the only driver of strong markets, as retirement markets prove. Retirees today are more active and less likely to buy a house.

They can also make excellent tenants, especially because retirees are no longer geographically linked to their income, whether that’s social security, a pension, or investment returns.

By positioning yourself in markets like Boca Raton or Palm Springs, you can benefit from retirees who are searching for an affordable, attractive lifestyle that doesn’t tie up a bunch of capital.

  • The lifestyle market.

Making a lifestyle investment means picking a market YOU want to spend time in.

This often involves renting a property on a monthly, weekly, or even nightly basis … which translates to high income, even when offset by higher management costs.

A major benefit of a lifestyle market is the chance to use the property yourself, whether that’s for a few months every year or during your own retirement.

  • The international market.

Investing outside of your country is a great way to diversify. The United States is not the only country in the world that offers great places to invest.

Investing outside of the U.S. also gives you the chance to create income in a different currency and park your wealth in a different economic environment.

And international investments are a sort of lifestyle investment … they certainly give you a good excuse to travel!

Although international investments can often require a steep learning curve, they’re something every serious investor should take a look at.

There’s always a great-performing market if you know where to look.

  • The sleeper market.

Sleeper markets aren’t on the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas. These are boutique markets … the markets no one else is talking about.

They allow you to make returns no one else can make … but there isn’t as much ballast, so you have to be very, very careful.

Don’t forget to consider property type

We’ve discussed market types in this episode … but another important part of your investment decision is property types.

The choice of single-family, multi-family, commercial, development, or land-holding property is an important factor when balancing your portfolio of well.

And different markets hold different opportunities with regard to property type.

We want to get you thinking about where to look for your next investment … and market type is a great place to start!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.