{"id":40280,"date":"2019-09-29T14:20:10","date_gmt":"2019-09-29T18:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realestateguysradio.com\/?p=40280"},"modified":"2021-01-24T23:00:38","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T03:00:38","slug":"mastering-market-trends-to-find-late-cycle-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realestateguysradio.com\/mastering-market-trends-to-find-late-cycle-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"Mastering Market Trends to Find Late-Cycle Opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter \" src=\"https:\/\/reg-public.s3.amazonaws.com\/Images\/master-market-trends.jpg\" width=\"448\" height=\"299\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They say the best deals go first \u2026 so it is too late in the cycle to find great real estate investment opportunities?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We say the answer is no.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019re visiting with a multi-market investor who is finding plenty of deals \u2026 even this deep into the economic cycle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Join us as we push past talk of bubbles and compressed cap rates to uncover deals still up for steals!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this episode of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Real Estate Guys\u2122<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> show, hear from:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Your dealing host, <\/span><b>Robert Helms<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His reeling co-host, <\/span><b>Russell Gray\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President of ROI Turn Key Properties, <\/span><b>Jared Garfield<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Listen<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><iframe style=\"border: none;\" src=\"\/\/html5-player.libsyn.com\/embed\/episode\/id\/11526230\/height\/360\/theme\/standard\/thumbnail\/yes\/direction\/backward\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"360\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Subscribe<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Broadcasting since 1997 with <em><strong>over 300 episodes<\/strong><\/em> on <a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/real-estate-guys-radio-show\/id194167775?mt=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">iTunes<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/real-estate-guys-radio-show\/id194167775?mt=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16480 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/reg-wordpress-images.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/11\/23221642\/button-itunes.png\" alt=\"real estate podcast on itunes\" width=\"112\" height=\"41\" \/><\/a><a title=\"Subscribe on Android\" href=\"http:\/\/www.subscribeonandroid.com\/realestateguysradio.libsyn.com\/rss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.blubrry.com\/soa\/BadgeLarge.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on Android\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCIeBshxsoymVsZOsR93geOQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-16668\" src=\"https:\/\/reg-wordpress-images.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/23221656\/youtube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4-300x87.png\" sizes=\"(max-width: 149px) 100vw, 149px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/reg-wordpress-images.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/23221656\/youtube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4-300x87.png 300w, https:\/\/reg-wordpress-images.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/23221656\/youtube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4-1024x296.png 1024w\" alt=\"youtube_subscribe_button__2014__by_just_browsiing-d7qkda4\" width=\"149\" height=\"43\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Review<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>When you\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/real-estate-guys-radio-show\/id194167775?mt=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">give\u00a0us a positive\u00a0review on iTunes<\/a>\u00a0you\u00a0<strong>help us continue to bring you high caliber guests<\/strong> and attract new listeners. It&#8217;s easy and takes just a minute!\u00a0(Don\u2019t know how? Follow <a href=\"http:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20170708080002\/https:\/\/support.apple.com\/en-us\/HT201991\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">these<\/a> instructions).<\/p>\n<p>Thanks!<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><b>The complex market ecosystem<\/b><\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not just important what you invest in \u2026 but where.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Markets are different across the world. So, today we\u2019re going to focus on studying market trends to find excellent real estate investments.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is a lot of talk about \u201cthe market cycle.\u201d But you see, there\u2019s not just one market cycle. And some market cycles run concurrently. Others lag \u2026 and some are completely opposite of others.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key is to make decisions on where to invest depending on where you think the puck is going.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Remember that markets are more than just geography. They also take in demographics.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Economic cycles affect markets too \u2026 and they are affected by the business cycle \u2026 the ebb and flow of supply and demand.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s an extremely complex ecosystem.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because real estate moves slowly, you don\u2019t day trade. You look out at the horizon and think about the long game.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s also a lot you can learn from other people\u2019s experiences. There are plenty of resources from people who have been through a market downturn or downward cycle before.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Just don\u2019t forget that in real estate, there is no one great, perfect real estate market.\u00a0<\/b><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The trick is to match a market with your personal investment philosophy \u2026 who you are as an investor, what you\u2019re trying to accomplish, your goals and dreams.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Focusing on a handful of markets can make a lot of sense in the long term.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our guest is in a lot of markets and does a lot of thinking and research about this very topic \u2026 and he is here to talk about some of the markets he likes for investors today.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><b>Identifying and adapting to markets<\/b><\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared Garfield used to go to his grandfather\u2019s real estate office, drink soda, and talk real estate.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cFrom the time when I was a kid, I wanted to be in real estate and follow in the family business,\u201d Jared says.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Jared learned from his family\u2019s successes and failures \u2026 and what he learned was the power of diversification.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared started buying houses in college. He bought foreclosures and flipped them for modest profits. After graduation, he built up a pretty large real estate portfolio.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Jared recognized that markets change. A market that is more cash flow oriented becomes more of an appreciation market over time. Dallas, Texas, is the perfect example.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, Jared spends a lot of his time watching that evolution and \u2026 to the best degree possible \u2026 anticipating it.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI developed a spreadsheet that analyzes 278 metropolitan statistical areas across the entire country on about 80 different metrics,\u201d Jared says.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared incorporated everything from poverty level to crime to test scores to media to affordability \u2026 and he looked at appreciation, building permits, job growth, population and more.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWith that, we\u2019ve identified some markets where you can really outperform many of the other markets,\u201d Jared says.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared also says it is important to think about submarkets. Investors tend to be the first in when there is an opportunity and the first to leave.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, Jared likes to look at secondary and tertiary markets. Take Huntsville, Alabama, for example.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Huntsville is known as the Pentagon of the South. It\u2019s home to NASA, Boeing, Lockheed, and Raytheon, and the FBI just moved 4,500 jobs from Langley to Huntsville.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared bought foreclosed houses in C or C+ neighborhoods for $28,000 to $35,000. They put in an average of $30,000 into rehab. Five years later, those homes are selling for about $120,000.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The cash flow is really good.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But, Jared says, <\/span><b>you have to deploy different strategies at different phases of the cycle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now that Huntsville is no longer an absorption project \u2026 it\u2019s expansion, full tilt \u2026 there is no reason to buy turnkey in C class neighborhoods. Instead, it makes more sense to buy new construction.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cA market gives you what the market gives you, and you have to decide how to take that and turn it into something that makes sense,\u201d Jared says.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><b>Selecting the right market for you<\/b><\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s a lot to learn about selecting and profiting in high cash flow markets \u2026 that\u2019s why Jared has prepared a special report for our listeners.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this report, Jared shares how to choose markets \u2026 the metrics you should use and how to understand the difference between high cash flow markets and others.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jared also shares what things you should watch for in each of his top market picks.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of those big factors is the one-horse town.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A one-horse town doesn\u2019t mean small. It could also mean a big town with a very segmented workforce.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seattle took a bath when Boeing laid-off workers in 1990. Houston had it rough because it used to be pretty much just oil. You\u2019ve got to have a diversity of employment and industries.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI like to invest in towns that are at least 300,000 in population and have a variety of employment sectors,\u201d Jared says.\u00a0<\/span><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>With single-family investing, all the data is there for you to pick the right market and get high returns \u2026 you just have to know how to look.\u00a0<\/b><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For more tips and experiences from Jared, listen in to the full episode!<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\">More From\u00a0<\/b><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><i>The Real Estate Guys<\/i><\/b><b style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u2122\u2026<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Check out all the great free info in our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/realestateguysradio.com\/resources\/special-reports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Special Reports<\/a>\u00a0library.<\/li>\n<li>Don\u2019t miss an episode of<i>\u00a0The Real Estate Guys<\/i>\u2122 radio show. Subscribe on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/real-estate-guys-radio-show\/id194167775?mt=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">iTunes<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.subscribeonandroid.com\/realestateguysradio.libsyn.com\/rss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Android<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCIeBshxsoymVsZOsR93geOQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">YouTube<\/a>!<\/li>\n<li>Stay connected with\u00a0<i>The Real Estate Guys<\/i>\u2122 on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TheRealEstateGuys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Facebook<\/a>,\u00a0\u00a0and our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/realestateguysradio.com\/feedback\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Feedback<\/a>\u00a0page.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i>The Real Estate Guys<\/i>\u2122 radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>Love the show?\u00a0 Tell the world!\u00a0 When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for\u00a0<span class=\"il\">your<\/span>\u00a0listening pleasure!<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>They say the best deals go first \u2026 so it is too late in the cycle to find great real estate investment opportunities? We say the answer is no.\u00a0 We\u2019re visiting with a multi-market investor who is finding plenty of deals \u2026 even this deep into the economic cycle.\u00a0 Join us as we push past [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":207,"featured_media":46565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[180,51,52],"tags":[1847,3458,1488,3231,563,780,848,1658,3228,2185,851,236,48,653,103,631,3227,104,2029,3229,3230,102,1359,2702],"class_list":["post-40280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-posts","category-broadcast-notes","category-markets","tag-dallas","tag-feed-pod-markets","tag-houston-2","tag-huntsville","tag-investing","tag-investment","tag-investor","tag-investors","tag-jared-garfield","tag-market-trends","tag-podcast","tag-radio-show","tag-real-estate","tag-real-estate-investing","tag-robert-helms","tag-roi","tag-roi-turn-key-properties","tag-russell-gray","tag-seattle","tag-single-family-investing","tag-submarkets","tag-the-real-estate-guys","tag-turnkey","tag-turnkey-property"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mastering Market Trends to Find Late-Cycle Opportunities<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"They say the best deals go first \u2026 so it is too late in the cycle to find great real estate investment opportunities? 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