3/24/14: Lessons and Opportunities from History with Simon Black

Imagine standing at your front window and suddenly you see a horrific car crash…right in front of your house!

You rush outside and see the driver open the door, get out and lean against the crumpled car.

Relieved that the driver doesn’t seem to be severely hurt, you pick up your phone and call 9-1-1.

BUT….

While you’re dialing your phone, what you don’t see is your panicked neighbor running out of her house screaming frantically.

Because blocked from your view is a small child, who’s been violently thrown from the car, and is now lying bleeding and limp against the curb.

You missed the horrific consequence of the accident because your perspective and focus didn’t allow you to see the whole scene.  But your neighbor, who had a different view, could see more of what happened and was able to react more appropriately.

The point is that one’s perspective and focus often has a profound affect on one’s reaction to an event or set of circumstances.  The lesson is that it’s crucially important to maintain a broader perspective, especially when potentially cataclysmic events are looming and the stakes are high.

But because history moves slowly and we’re so busy with our noses planted firmly against the proverbial grindstone, it’s easy to miss or misinterpret high stakes events which are unfolding all around us.

As we’re shared many times on our radio show, we missed some of the warning signs leading up to the sub-prime crisis and subsequent financial crisis.  Since then, we’ve been substantially more attentive to the bigger picture, including spending time with and listening to really smart folks who spend most of their time looking at the bigger picture.

Our 2014 Investor Summit at Sea™ had one such person as a late addition faculty member, so we didn’t miss the opportunity to grab the microphones and have a chat about what the lessons and opportunities today’s investors can glean from a closer look at world history.

Sitting in Honduras behind the silver mobile microphones of The Real Estate Guys™ radio show:

  • Your historic host, Robert Helms
  • His archaic co-host, Russell Gray
  • Returning guest, world traveler, history student, entrepreneur, investor and quintessential Sovereign Man, Simon Black

Simon Black could be called the most interesting man alive, except he doesn’t have a beard or drink Dos Equis.  Of course, we don’t find either of those two things all that interesting, but what do we know?

What we do find extremely interesting is Simon’s background in military intelligence and his passion for sharing great ideas with people.  He’s an intense, data driven student of history, economics, business and investing.

Simon is a perpetual traveler.  He visits dozens of countries every year.  Along the way, Simon invests, establishes business and personal relationships, and sends out his daily thoughts and observations, which he calls Notes from the Field.  We read them every day.  Good stuff.

Simon’s presentation on our 2014 Investor Summit at Sea™ was one of the most popular and created a lot of excitement.  He had lots of charts, graphs, data and historical references.  The bottom line is that history tells us that the United States’ reign as the world’s dominant economy and currency is coming to an end.

Find that hard to believe?  You’re not alone.  But it’s hard to refute the evidence.  It’s just our normalcy bias that wants to override our intellect to tell us, “It can’t happen here”.

The facts remains that we’re due for a change.  The conditions which precede change exist today, just as they have in the past when similar substantial changes have occurred in global history.  The U.S., like the many dominant powers before her, aren’t immune from the consequences of economic decisions that always precipitate the forfeiture of preeminent status.

And while change can be scary, it’s usually only really bad for those who are completely unaware and unprepared.  Simon’s mission (and ours too) is help make sure you’re well prepared.

Simon says this is an unprecedented era of opportunity.  Why?  Because the flip side of any problem is an opportunity.

Such as…

The Calorie Crunch

One of the greatest opportunities Simon sees is in agricultural investing.

The evidence says more people are coming and less arable land will be available for food production.  Obviously, there’s a real estate play here.  But it’s more than that.  Your tenants are crops, which are commodities.  And commodities often respond well to falling currencies.  It’s something we cover in our Real Asset Investing report, which was the theme of the 2014 Summit.

Simon thinks agricultural investing is an even more obvious opportunity than trying to profit from or hedge currency fluctuations.  The best we can hope for is that food prices rise because of supply and demand.  It’s possible we could have food shortages.  In any case, the owner’s of farm land (the means of food production) stand to do very well in the decades to come.

Bet on People

Simon closed his remarks on the Summit and in our interview with optimism.  Although history tells us that some chaos is coming, it also tells us that humans have a long and remarkable track record of re-organizing themselves into a better world after each major shift.

Part of that process is education and entrepreneurship.  If you’re reading this, then you’re probably a part of the solution.  Good job!

Simon holds an annual entrepreneurship camp for young people to help accelerate their development and prepare them for a brave new world.  Our youngsters are our future and we applaud any and all efforts to develop them.  Kudos to Simon for making this a priority.

We encourage you to invest in the young people around you.  Share your time, wisdom and encouragement.  If you are a young person, invest in yourself.  And encourage your friends to pour their energy into learning how to build businesses and investment portfolios that provide products and services that serve people.

Simon says this is a GREAT time to be alive.  We hope you agree. It’s an era of unprecedented opportunity.

So listen to this insightful interview with sovereign man Simon Black and consider how you can position yourself to earn profits and serve people as the world undergoes continued change.

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