Dollar death watch emergency conference call …

Posted by on September 15, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

We just recorded an emergency conference call …

…  featuring Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson (The Crash Course) and Brien Lundin (Gold Newsletter).

Chris is a big brain PhD who studies economics, eco-politics, and how energy (i.e., oil) affects economics.

Brien is a well-recognized expert in precious metals and mining investing … and spends much of his time studying the gold market.

Both guys are hyper-connected to the smartest economists, investors, and niche experts in the world.  So they’re not just smart, they’re also well-informed.

The conference call centers around China’s recent announcement of plans to back their currency with gold for the purpose of settling oil trade.

This single move could substantially affect oil, gold, the dollar, interest rates, real estate … Uncle Sam’s credit line, budget and influence around the world … and YOUR financial future.

It’s a BIG deal.

China has been advancing … quietly at first, and lately much more overtly … a strategy to UNDERMINE the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

This is HUGE for anyone measuring wealth and income in U.S. dollars.

It’s even more significant for Americans, whose government has been able to use its privileged status to go DEEPLY into debt … seemingly without consequence.

But that could be changing …

Uncle Sam’s unlimited checkbook … as well as his substantial influence around the world … has been largely built on the power of issuing the world’s reserve currency.

That’s because international trade is primarily settled in U.S. dollars, so getting locked out of dollars though U.S. sanctions can choke a nation’s economy …

… just ask Russia, Iran and Venezuela … to name a few who’ve been on the receiving end of this power.

Oil is the biggest component of international trade.

It’s no wonder Russia, who happens to be the world’s largest oil producer, was early to sign on to circumvent the dollar.

Iran (#5 producer) is on the team.  Venezuela (#11 producer), whose economy is 95% oil, also just got on board.

Now the U.S. is talking about kicking CHINA out of the dollar system.

But China’s been preparing to be independent of the dollar …

… and has a LONG list of bilateral trade agreements signed with MANY trading partners (as chronicled in this free report on Real Asset Investing).

As the largest oil importer in the world, China has a lot of purchasing power to put pressure on the “petro-dollar” (U.S. dollars used in international trading of oil), as Chris explains in the call.

The petro-dollar has been a major component of the dollar’s power in international trade.  China’s move could be setting the table for a collapse of the petro-dollar.

This isn’t the end of the world …

But it could be a BIG change for dollar denominated investors …  

Those who are aware and prepared can protect themselves and get in a position to win.  Those who aren’t will likely be blind-sided and face potentially horrific losses.

We’ve been watching this develop for years … and now it seems things are picking up speed.

If YOU haven’t been paying attention, it’s time to accelerate YOUR learning and preparation.

Maybe this isn’t as big a deal as we think.  But better to prepared and not have a dollar crisis … than to have one and not be prepared.

The GREAT news is there are lots of smart investors watching this situation very carefully … and there are strategies to hedge … and even profit … from these developments.

So click here now to listen in on the conversation with Chris Martenson and Brien Lundin … as we discuss China, oil, gold, the future of the dollar … and how concerned investors can prepare.

Until next time … good investing!

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Yet another BRUTAL storm forming …

Posted by on September 13, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

And the hits just keep on coming …

We know you’d like investing to be simple and drama free.  We do too.

But while real estate investing itself is a simple activity … the economics of real estate investing has become more complex.

There’s a LOT going on in the world.   Some things interconnect by cause, and others by effect … meaning they don’t appear to be related, but then converge.

As Jim Rickards points out repeatedly … economies and ecologies are complex systems.  They are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.

But even though no one can say with certainty what will happen, it’s still important to take precautions when it’s clear SOMETHING BIG is coming …

… just as Floridians watched Irma and prepared, not knowing fully what to expect.  Better to be prepared and not have a disaster than vice versa.

So let’s take a look at what’s forming on the horizon …

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

While the total financial and human impact of these back-to-back disasters is yet to be calculated, one thing’s for sure …  it’s going to be expensive.

Short term disruptions to gas prices and orange futures aside, disasters like these redirect HUGE amounts of capital … which has a ripple effect.

For example, money insurance companies might otherwise put into financing NEW multi-family apartments in other markets …

… will now pour into re-building properties damaged and destroyed in Houston and Florida.

Federal money which might have been focused on infrastructure spending or tax cuts will also be redirected to damage recovery.

And it’s likely the demand for construction labor and supplies will rise, driving up total construction costs in many markets … not just those affected by the storms.

That’s because just as demand for concrete in China creates price increases in the U.S. … the demand for reconstruction resources will probably be felt throughout the United States.

Distressed inventory

Just like the financial disaster of 2008, there may be many problem properties coming out of all this … because many weren’t insured for flood damage.

Federal aid may help some of those homeowners.  It’s less likely such relief is offered to investors who were under-insured.

While it’s no fun to profit from someone else’s loss, there’s a role for profit-seeking capital to play in repairing damaged communities.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see tax breaks, loan subsidies or other incentives offered to entice investment capital to flow into affected markets … like when New Orleans was hit by Hurricane Katrina.

The Debt Ceiling  

In other news, President Trump and Congress managed to get the debt ceiling temporarily increased … while raising the prospect of simply eliminating it all together.

Talk about calling a spade a spade.  The ceiling hasn’t capped spending … ever.

Now billions of dollars are ear-marked for hurricane relief, and everyone can take a short break from “worrying” Uncle Sam might default on his debt.

So it looks like it’s back to over-spending as usual. Not surprisingly, the dollar’s year-long fall has resumed velocity.  

Then again … maybe the dollar’s fall (and gold’s rise) is part of a bigger story which has nothing to do with U.S. business-as-usual deficit spending …

Gold-backed yuan already finding friends

As we recently noted, China announced plans to settle its oil trade in yuan.

And to entice sellers to accept yuan, the Chinese are backing it with that “barbarous relic” … gold.

Days later, oil-rich Venezuela announced they’d start using yuan … and other currencies … to “free us from the dollar.”

It’s no surprise Venezuela would jump at this.  After all, just two weeks earlier President Trump signed an executive order sanctioning Venezuela … whose economy is 95% oil.

But as we note in our Real Asset Investing report, China began its plan to supplant the dollar way back in 2010.  So none of this is new.

And the first country to sign a bilateral trade agreement to “renounce the U.S. dollar” was … wait for it … Russia … followed by Brazil, Australia, and a LONG list of others.

We think this is a HUGE story that few in mainstream financial media are covering.  But we are.

In fact, we’re putting together an emergency conference call with Brien Lundin and Chris Martenson to discuss the ramifications … so stay tuned for that!

Is the U.S. dollar doomed?

This is the big WHY IT MATTERS … especially for Americans and everyone denominating wealth in American dollars.

Like Hurricane Irma, no one can say exactly if, when, or how disaster will strike.  And it’s possible the winds will change and the storm will miss your portfolio.

But what if it doesn’t?  Right now, the winds appear to be headed your way.

Are YOU ready?  Are you getting ready?  Many people don’t even know what ready looks like.  That was us 10 years ago.

It’s a complex problem so there’s no simple solution.  If there was, it probably wouldn’t be a problem.

Peter Schiff has been warning about this for years. As has Robert Kiyosaki, Richard Duncan, Simon Black, Chris Martenson, Jim Rickards, David Stockman … and the list goes on and on.

Each has their own ideas about when … and how to prepare.

There’s no one-size-fits all answer because everyone’s situation, portfolio, investing IQ, advisory network, access to deals, and investment objectives are different.

MISSION: POSSIBLE

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to get informed, educated, connected and activated … as quickly as possible.

And if you think getting educated is time consuming and expensive … it’s nothing compared to being ignorant and apathetic.

When storm clouds form on the horizon, some decide to pay attention and take pre-emptive steps.  There’s no guarantee of safety, but their odds are better.

Others only hope for the best, but don’t prepare for the worst.  Yet the higher the stakes, the more important it is to be preemptively cautious.

The storm warnings are loud and clear … for everyone paying attention.

But storms often approach slowly … and because most blow over … it’s easy (yet dangerous) to assume every storm will.

Slowly at first … then all at once

Longtime listeners know we’ve been watching this whole story unfold for years.

We talked about the very real possibility of China making a run at reserve currency status almost two years ago.  We said then we’d keep you informed and so we are.

Now things are picking up speed.  So if you’re new or haven’t been all that interested … NOW is the time to accelerate your understanding.

If you’ve read this far, we trust you’re interested and concerned … as you should be.

So we STRONGLY encourage you to SERIOUSLY consider attending BOTH Brien Lundin’s New Orleans Investment Conference (coming up FAST!) and The Real Estate Guys™ 2018 Investor Summit at Sea™.

These events each feature lots of big brains … with critical perspectives every serious investor needs to have to help understand and navigate these stormy times.

Sure, these events are capitalist ventures … we each make some money producing them.

But we’re not after your money … we simply use to it for event costs and to pay some bills along the way.  Your support makes these events possible.

We organize events so we can get brilliant minds in one place at one time.  And the only way to make it affordable for us … and you … is to share the cost with hundreds of others.

So yes, we need your help.  And in exchange YOU get access too!

With that said, these events are happening with or without you. Your absence or presence, while nice for us, could be LIFE-CHANGING for YOU … and that’s true of most important ideas, opportunities and relationships.

So with the winds of sea change blowing fiercely on the horizon, it’s a good time to consider carefully whether or not investing in preparation is a good idea.

We think it is.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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The Role of Investors in Bouncing Back from Disaster

Posted by on September 11, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

We’re sure you’ve noticed the upheaval certain areas of the U.S. … it’s been hard to miss.

Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma have swept Texas, Florida, and the Caribbean, leaving a path of destruction in their wake.

Every natural disaster brings a certain amount of tragedy, and our sympathies go out to those who are hurting from the storms.

But we’re heartened to see communities coming together in the aftermath to help heal damage … and we think real estate investors can play a role in building communities that are even stronger than before the storms.

Listen in to this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show to hear us brainstorm ideas about how investors can help … and how they can prepare for future disasters.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your disaster-pro host, Robert Helms
  • His disaster-prone co-host, Russell Gray

Listen


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Finding opportunities in the midst of tragedy

Perhaps it makes you uncomfortable to think of profiting while people are suffering.

That’s okay. In fact, it’s more than okay … it means you have the right intentions.

But bringing your skills on to the scene after disaster has struck isn’t simply opportunistic.

By getting involved, you’re solving problems and adding value. This is the sunny side of capitalism.

You can make a fair profit … and make a difference too. Just make sure you’re doing the right thing for the right reason.

Remember … the flip side of every problem is an opportunity.

In the aftermath of a disaster, there are myriad opportunities.

Investors can renovate flooded and damaged houses. Some houses will be lost causes until an investor decides to step in and put some capital to work.

But the opportunities don’t stop there.

Out of necessity, huge disasters involve a large displacement of people. Investors can create new housing situations for displaced people.

And disasters also effect the local economy. Jobs are affected, causing a ripple effect for entire communities … including landlords whose tenants’ jobs are affected.

Finding ways to revitalize local communities and create jobs can minimize damage and create huge amounts of good.

Smart choices at opportune times

Getting involved simply because there is an opportunity isn’t always the smartest choice. Make sure you’re getting involved because it makes sense and it’s the right choice for YOU.

Investors have to know that after a major disruption, banks, government agencies, and other financial institutions may create incentives to sweeten the deal and get people involved.

After Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana government created a “go zone” with adjusted depreciation rates.

These incentives can make investing in disaster-struck areas a smart idea … but we’d warn you to never let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

It’s easy to get caught up in a temporary disruption and make a long-term commitment without realizing that circumstances may revert to what they were pre-incentives.

With that said, Houston is a favorable market … it’s landlord friendly, with many major industries creating jobs.

Most of the things that make Houston make sense haven’t changed. And if you want to invest there, there’s no better time than now.

It may be smart to be the first to make a move … while everyone else is still panicking.

Putting money to work by investing

Let’s look at properties that fall into distress.

Maybe the owners got stuck in a bad situation. Investors can step in pre-foreclosure, buy the home, rehab the property, and put it back into service.

You’re doing good by helping the owners before they’re foreclosed on, and you’re making the neighborhood a better place … all in one fell swoop.

You’re making a difference on the micro scale. The same idea works on the macro scale … when disaster strikes a whole community instead of a single person.

Disaster-struck cities will have blighted areas. Many may have been functionally obsolete even before the storm.

Now is the time to redevelop and rebuild … to create great neighborhoods where none existed before.

It wouldn’t surprise us to see entire neighborhoods change composition if real estate investors have the good sense to identify trends and get in on investment opportunities early.

A smart syndication opportunity

Perhaps you want to help pick up the pieces … but you’re not sure where to find the capital.

Incentives can help. You may also want to consider community banks, who will be eager to get investors on the scene as early as possible.

There’s lots of capital out there. Not all of it has to come from banks, though … syndication is another great option.

Running syndication deals in disaster-struck areas gives people a great opportunity to put a chunk of cash to work. Instead of donating a small amount and getting nothing back, investors can see their money do good … and also make a decent profit.

Entrepreneurs look for a market problem and figure out a way to solve it … profitably.

Look for ways to solve problems instead of despairing about everything that’s gone wrong.

Preparing for the next disaster

A big part of dealing with disasters … perhaps the biggest … is being psychologically and financially ready to step in when the next opportunity comes along.

Always be prepared. If you own properties, make sure you have the proper insurance in place.

Never risk 100% of your net worth. Always ask whether you’re taking too much risk before jumping in to a deal.

If you want to be a first responder next time disaster strikes, it’s smart to have a source of capital ready to deploy when the right opportunity comes up.

If you know you won’t have enough capital on your own but think you’re the right person to syndicate a deal for other investors, build your network before the right opportunity comes along.

Build your brand and your credibility. That way, you’re not running around looking for people to invest when the time is right.

Just like the Boy Scouts, we’d encourage you to always be prepared.

Make sure you’re aware of all possible downsides. Don’t go in looking for the upside first.

Beware of trick ponies. In the words of Warren Buffet, “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1.”

That doesn’t mean you should be afraid to jump in when the time is right … absolutely move while the situation’s still hot, but make sure you’re making a smart, calculated risk.

And don’t bet the farm on a single deal or market.

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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China, gold, oil, the dollar and YOU …

Posted by on September 6, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

There’s a BIG story developing … something we’ve been tracking for years …

… which might be about to create a SEA CHANGE for investors all over the world … including YOU.

Here’s a headline you SHOULD be aware of but might have missed …

China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold – Nikkei Asian Review, September 1, 2017 

There’s SO much to say here, it’s hard to know where to start.

We’ll hit some highlights … and refer you back to some of our previous coverage of this VERY important topic.

First, let’s quickly consider …

WHY this matters to real estate investors … 

If you denominate your net worth, assets, debt, or income in U.S. dollars, then you should care VERY MUCH about the future and health of the dollar.

Ditto if you utilize debt or care about the impact of interest rates (and you should) … on your mortgages, the stock and bond markets, as well as the overall economy.

And if you’re an American or invest solely in the U.S., the health of the U.S. dollar and economy should be of even GREATER interest to you.

So yes, what China is doing with gold and oil matters a LOT to real estate investors … especially in the United States.

What’s the big deal?

First, this recent move by China is the latest in a long series of moves they’ve been making to undermine the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

This is something we’ve been tracking since 2009, when we first read about China’s concerns about U.S. debt and interest rate policy.

We continued to track China’s actions and made this the focus of our remarks in our 2013 presentation at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

Shortly thereafter, we expanded on the situation in our special report on Real Asset Investing.

We’ve also talked about it on our radio show and in our blog.

So if you’re new to this whole subject, we recommend you go back and review those reports, broadcasts and blogs.

For now, just understand China has been overtly, aggressively and systematically working to undermine the U.S. dollar’s uniquely powerful role in global finance.

This latest move is a HUGE next step in unseating the dollar’s dominance.

The rise and (potential) fall of the U.S. dollar …

If you’re unfamiliar with U.S. dollar history, schedule some time to study it.  It’s too big a topic to unpack here.

For now, we’ll simply point out that the U.S. dollar was originally backed by gold from its inception and when it ascended into its role as the world’s reserve currency at Bretton Woods in 1944.

The gold backing was broken in August 1971 when then-U.S. president Richard Nixon defaulted on Bretton Woods.  Gold soared and the dollar crashed.

The U.S. quickly cut a deal with Saudi Arabia … where the Saudis would use their influence to force oil shipments to be settled in U.S. dollars.

This “petro-dollar” deal created a huge and persistent demand for dollars …

… and protecting the petro-dollar has been a focus of U.S. foreign and trade policy ever since.

To further bolster the dollar, then-Fed chair Paul Volcker jacked-up interest rates to over 20%, which had a profound impact on the U.S. economy … and real estate.

All this to say … gold, oil, the dollar, and interest rates all impact each other … and have been VERY important to maintaining U.S. dominance around the world.

So it’s no surprise other countries looking to increase their influence in the world are interested in all those things … and you probably should be as well.

Chinese currency to be backed by gold …

So let’s take a look at some of the notable statements in the news article …

“Yuan-denominated contact will let exporters circumvent US dollar”
“Yuan-denominated gold futures have been traded on the Shanghai Gold exchange as part of the country’s effort to reduce the pricing power of the U.S. dollar”
“China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold … could be a game-changer for the industry.”
“… will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions …”
“… China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold in exchanges in Shanghai and Honk Kong.”

Think about this …

When oil exporters … like Iran, Russia and Venezuela… can circumvent the U.S. dollar in oil trade … and get GOLD instead of U.S. paper which can be printed out of thin air …

…which do YOU think they’ll choose?

And how influential will U.S. sanctions be (i.e., getting locked out of the U.S. dollar and banking system) when countries can do business without the dollar?

How important will GOLD become as more and more international trade settles in gold-backed yuan instead of nothing-backed dollars?

How unimportant will dollars become?  Where will the bid move?

Is THIS why gold has been moving up lately?  Is this why the dollar has been falling?

Why did U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin pay “a rare official visit” to Fort Knox and subsequently tweet, “Glad gold is safe!”?  All of the sudden gold is interesting to the Treasury?

Meanwhile, Germany recently completed a repatriation of a big chunk of their gold … ahead of schedule.  Maybe the rush is to pacify voters in the upcoming election … or maybe there’s another reason?

Of course, way back when China began publicly expressing concerns about the U.S. dollar … and taking steps to mitigate its own exposure to dollar denominated assets …

… several countries joined Germany in taking steps to repatriate their gold from foreign hands.  That feels a lot like a “run” on the bank … and it began long before any of the current elections.

Besides, if gold is really just a barbarous relic with no role in modern finance as some claim … then why all the fuss?

As you can see, this all raises a LOT of questions. 

What’s an investor to do?

First, simply understand the fate of the dollar has a PROFOUND impact on anyone who earns, saves, invests or borrows in dollars.

If that’s you, then this is an IMPORTANT topic for YOU to pay attention to.

Next, be encouraged there are investment strategies which you can use to mitigate risk and generate profits … even in the face of a falling dollar.

We discuss some of these in our special report on Real Asset Investing.

Get and stay connected and informed.  That’s why we attend the New Orleans Investment Conference and produce the Investor Summit at Sea.

Right now, it’s more important than EVER to attend events like these.

It’s where you hear from thought leaders, focus deeply on important topics, get into great conversations with like-minded people and subject matter experts …

… and form valuable relationships with people who can help you implement useful strategies.

The WORST thing you can do is ignore it all and hope nothing’s going to change. The world is changing whether you know it, like it, or understand it.

How you choose to respond will determine how it changes for you.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Low rates and huge opportunity …

Posted by on August 30, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

Financial planning 101 says create equity first, then invest it for cash flow later.

Of course, real estate investors know cash-flow creates equity … but that’s a different discussion.

With paper assets, the basic formula is to buy stocks young to grow equity, then sell them later to buy bonds in retirement that will produce cash flow to live on.

But for folks trying to retire today (and there’s millions of them!), today’s pitifully low rates pose a BIG problem.

They either need to have a TON of equity … or be willing to live a miserly existence.

Think about it … even $1 million dollars invested at two-percent only creates a meager $20,000 per year passive taxable income.

In other words, thanks to the Fed, you can be a cash millionaire … and only have enough interest income to live just above the poverty level.

When someone is trying to retire on savings and they can’t get enough yield to live on, besides staying in the workforce (which many boomers are doing), other options are …

… consume the principal and hope you don’t outlive your savings …

… or stay in equities (stocks) and hope the next inevitable correction (crash) doesn’t cut your nest egg in half.

Of course, if the stock market crashes, history says the Fed’s probable response is to LOWER interest rates.  For retirees, that’s a DOUBLE-WHAMMY … crushing both asset values and interest income.

Thankfully, as real estate investors, we don’t have to worry about most of this.

But non-real estate investing boomers have a BIG problem.  Their best hope of getting the Fed on their side is to stay in the stock market.

We think it’s fairly easy to make the argument real estate is a FAR better equity play than stocks … but that’s not today’s message … and you probably already know it anyway.

Today is about OPPORTUNITY … the HUGE opportunity for real estate investors because of what’s going on in today’s market.

For small-time operators, this is a great time to search for equity-rich owners who are selling so they can retire on liquidated equity.

So don’t just offer to buy the property … ask the seller what they plan to do with the proceeds. Uncover their problem so you can offer a solution.

If their plan is to put the money into bank CDs or government bonds … they’re looking at puny yields of less than three-percent.

Sure, we know there are bond funds with TOTAL returns of six to eight percent, but that includes capital gains on bond values.  If rates rise, those capital gains become LOSSES.

And if anyone wants to compare total returns … a typical leveraged single-family rental destroys bonds.  But that’s also a conversation for another day.

Our point today is LOW interest rates are creating a BIG PROBLEM for a HUGE group of people … and a TREMENDOUS opportunity for real estate investors to profit from helping.

Because when you approach equity rich property owners with an offer to pay them six or eight percent when they carry back their equity …

… you can triple or even quadruple their income compared to bank CD’s or bonds.

Let’s do the math …

$1,000,000 carried back equity at six-percent = $60,000 per year taxable

Of course, you may not want their specific property, so a carry-back isn’t always the best play.  But it doesn’t mean you can’t create a win-win deal anyway.

Suppose you have other properties you do want, but need financing … and for whatever reason you can’t or don’t want conventional loans.

The approach is the same, except the equity-rich property owner uses their equity to loan against the property you do want.

Now if you take this approach to the next level, instead of just one property owner and one or two properties …

… you could set up a syndication and aggregate several individual investors into a bigger pool to do bigger deals.

So even though the scale is bigger, the concept is the same …

Help people who need income and have stock or real estate equity, by showing them how to move the equity into higher yielding vehicles … with YOU.

Even if there’s interest expense involved in freeing the equity, as long as the risk-adjusted spread is positive, it’s a win.

For example, if a property owner has $100,000 in idle equity which can be unlocked with a fixed-rate long term loan of four-percent … they have interest expense of $4,000 per year (typically tax deductible).

When you offer an eight-percent yield through a private mortgage (loan) or a cash-flowing property (equity share) … you provide them $8,000 per year passive income.

Now you’ve delivered them $4,000 per year of additional free cash flow, while YOU own all or part of an investment property funded with their equity.

Once you understand the concept, you can just add investors, zeroes, commas … until you have a portfolio that’s as big as you’re capable of making it.

The bottom line is low-interest rates create HUGE opportunities for real estate investors big and small … and it’s not just simply going out and getting bank loans.

When you learn how to help people solve their cash flow problems through strategic equity management, you set yourself apart from investors who aren’t as creative.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Ask The Guys – Apartments, Retirement, and Offshore Entities

Posted by on August 28, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

Our listener questions this week run the gamut from extremely practical to extremely theoretical.

As always, we weigh in on topics that are relevant to YOU … listen in to hear our ideas on apartment management basics, diversification, and more … plus some podcast recommendations and a whole lot of info on one of our favorite places, Belize.

Keep in mind that we are not legal or tax professionals. We do not give advice. The ideas in this show are simply that … ideas.

In this edition of Ask The Guys you’ll hear from:

  • Your deal-hunting host, Robert Helms
  • His tag-along co-host, Russell Gray

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Question: What expenses do I need to budget for as an apartment building owner?

Arnie in Minneapolis has a 20-unit apartment building that provides student housing near a university. He asked us to explain what his basic expenses will be. First, the obvious:

  • Utilities. These can get a bit tricky, though, because the tenants may not pay all the utilities directly. You may have to pay for gas and water, for example.
  • Taxes. Make sure you’ve done your research and know how and when taxes are reassessed in your area.
  • Property insurance. This is a must.
  • Management costs. Consider how much staff you’ll need and whether you want to hire third-party management.

And the less obvious:

  • Marketing and advertising costs. Marketing your property helps cut vacancies. For a college property, brochures may be one option.
  • Legal costs. Make sure you have a legal team in place and a process for handling tenants with bad debt.
  • Maintenance. Small but necessary services like pest control and carpet cleaning can add up.

Although apartment owners have to juggle a list of expenses, there are ways they can make some extra income. Apartments geared toward both college students and other types of residents can offer paid laundry services, parking spots, and even furniture rentals.

Question: I’m a new investor. Should I diversify with different product types and markets now, or later?

This Texas listener started investing in the past year and is trying to hone his personal investment philosophy. Ryan said he owns two single-family homes, but is also interested in commercial, agricultural, and lifestyle properties.

He wanted to know whether it’s wise to start diversifying now or smarter to wait.

The simple answer is it’s up to Ryan. How much completely depends on the amount of time, energy, and focus you have to spare.

Having a great team can be the make-or-break factor.

Beginners are starting without the stable of resources that established investors have, and access to a mentor can make all the difference in whether you’re successful with a specific product class or market.

Being in the hottest niche doesn’t matter much if you don’t have a great team to support you.

We recommend Ryan spend some time poking around.

Diversification is great … but it means two markets, two sets of knowledge, two teams.

A single investor can only know a handful of markets really well, so getting well-acquainted with a single market can be a good place to start.

It all comes down to your goals … and passions.

The more you love a market or product type, the longer you’ll stay in the game.

Ryan, search your priorities and keep figuring out what you really want to do. What’s right for you may be honing in on single-family, or it may be finding a mentor to help you get involved in other markets.

Ultimately, the right choice is completely dependent on YOU.

Question: What do I need to know to get involved with a lending deal?

Steven from Havelock, North Carolina got an offer to be part of a private lending deal … but he wants to know how he can educate himself before he says YES … or NO.

Lending deals come in two forms … private loans, or divided private placements.

They all boil down to the same components:

  1. A piece of collateral against which you’re lending.
  2. A borrower to whom you’re lending money.
  3. A servicing process, to collect payments and distribute money to investors.

Although the basic process is pretty simple, it’s become more complicated since 2008. If you’re underwriting the loan, you need to know as much as you can about the following:

  • The management team’s process
    • How they manage and service loans
    • How they deal with default loans
    • What their basic guidelines are for protective equity
  • Projections for how much the market can pull back before the property in question is underwater
  • The debt-to-income ratio … how much income is available to service the loan

If you’re only investing, not underwriting, you don’t need to know every detail … but you do need to know enough to know that the people doing the loan know what they’re doing.

Take a look at the company’s track record, advisors, and business philosophy, policies, and procedures.

Make sure they have a realistic model for getting you a ROI.

And always make sure you have advisors … a smart legal team can tell you in minutes whether a deal is as good as it looks.

Question: Do you have any podcast recommendations?

Robert from Madison, Alabama said he’s obsessed with our podcast (thanks, Robert!) and also listens to Robert Kiyosaki and Peter Schiff.

He wondered whether we had recommendations for other podcasts in line with our thinking and perspective.

First, a caution … don’t seek out a single perspective!

As a real estate investor, you always want to strive to stand on the edge of the coin. Get multiple perspectives and then let those ideas interact with each other.

Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki are absolutely valuable listening, but they don’t necessarily focus on real estate investing. If you’re looking for practical, tactical advice, consider the following:

Almost every real estate niche has experts producing media … if not podcasts, certainly books and courses.

Other wealth-related recommendations include:

We heard of a great technique for reading books, and we think it applies to podcasts too … read three chapters (or listen to three podcasts or so) and see whether the content grabs you.

If it doesn’t, it’s not worth your time!

Question: Do The Real Estate Guys™ provide mentoring services? How do I find a good mentor?

While we’re honored that Grant, from Denver, Colorado, would like to have us as his mentors, The Real Estate Guys™ do not provide individual coaching or mentoring services.

We coach the syndication mentoring club … a group for investors who have gone to our Secrets of Successful Syndication event and have a good baseline for investing and syndication.

That’s it.

However, we think there are lots of great resources out there for coaching.

Interested in a specific product type? Experts like Gene Guarino can coach you in residential assisted living. Other experts can help with everything from apartment buildings to commercial spaces.

Our recommendation … figure out what kind of help you really need.

Do you want someone to make you stick to deadlines and goals? Someone to give you practical resources? Someone to help you make connections?

Once you’ve identified your needs, take a look at who’s out there and do your research. Check in with former students to see if there’s evidence the program was successful.

Question: Do you have any tips on lifestyle investing in the Mediterranean?

Bob lives near dark and stormy Seattle. He and his wife are nearing retirement and want to spend their winters somewhere warmer … preferably the Mediterranean.

They’re looking for a part-time vacation home, part-time rental situation.

He asked whether we had any tips on researching the cost, feasibility, and process for buying a property in this region.

Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of experience in this specific part of the world.

But we do have a lot of experience investing all over the world … enough to know that legal structures vary incredibly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

The key to success? Always get plugged in with someone who knows the market from a local point of view.

It would be a smart idea for Bob to plan a vacation … narrow down his interests to a specific market and work on making strategic relationships while he’s over there.

Yes, we just recommended a vacation!

Bob also needs to work on building a legal and tax team in the U.S. to deal with sometimes complicated foreign legal structures.

The short answer … worry more about acquiring relationships than acquiring knowledge.

Questions: Belize, Belize, Belize!

We had three listeners ask questions about our Belize Discovery Trip.

Travis, from Maple Grove, Minnesota, wondered whether investors have to be extremely wealthy to invest in Belize.

Along the same lines, Brad, from Bakersfield, California wanted to know the type of investments typically available in Belize … and whether potential investors can work around lack of available financing.

We believe there is a ton of opportunity in Belize … and you don’t have to be über wealthy to take advantage of it.

Belize doesn’t offer traditional bank loans. So investors have a few options.

One option is to go in on an investment with a group.

Another is to refinance a property you own in the U.S. and use the equity to fund a deal in Belize.

No matter the route you choose, be smart about it. Understand the supply and demand dynamics.

Ask yourself exactly what you want … whether it’s lifestyle, cash flow, asset protection, equity, or something else … then visit Belize and see whether the market will help you achieve your goals.

If the answer is YES, the next step is to build a team … and you can do that by joining us on our field trips and getting to know the people who will help you put together a great deal.

Our third question about Belize took a slightly different tack … Craig, from Rosemount, Minnesota asked whether an IBC is the only corporate structure two parties would need to go in on a deal together.

This is a legal question. And we’re not legal advisors.

But we can tell you that although people often use entities to buy properties in foreign coutnries, it’s perfectly acceptable to own property in your name.

If you do use an IBC, you’d have to use an IBC from a different country. IBCs can’t be used to do business in their country of origin.

The bigger question is making sure you understand what you’re trying to accomplish, why you’re doing it, and what the possible ramifications are.

Do your homework. You don’t want to learn a lesson by making the wrong mistake.

Yearning for more in-depth information about IBCs, financing, and buying in Belize? Come on our field trip!

Spend time with Robert and other investors, build relationships, investigate the market, and enjoy all Belize has to offer for three and a half days.

We guarantee you’ll learn something … and have fun too!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Certainty in an uncertain world …

Posted by on August 24, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

It’s been said the only thing certain in life is death and taxes.

Of course, properly structured and well-advised real estate investors can usually mitigate most of their taxes. 

Meanwhile, before people die, they live.  Along the way, they get older.  And as people age, their needs change …

… and because entrepreneurship is about serving needs, it’s a safe bet there’s some opportunity in meeting the needs of aging people.

In a recent radio show, we talked about investing in undeniable demographics … specifically, the baby boomers … who are moving into retirement and beyond.

A few days later, this headline popped up in our news feed:

More Growth Ahead in Seniors Housing – NREI August 16, 2017

“… research shows continued confidence in improving fundamentals …”

 Of course, if you’ve been following The Real Estate Guys™ for any time, you know senior housing in general … and residential assisted living in particular … is a niche we REALLY like.

The article affirms our belief that …

“ Demographics continue to be a big driver for development.”

“ ‘As active as the market is with the product that we have today, we are looking at the tip of the iceberg in terms of boomers hitting retirement age,’ says Scott Stewart, a managing partner at Capitol Seniors Housing, a private equity-backed real estate acquisition, development and investment management firm based in Washington, D.C.”

‘The fast-paced growth of that population in that sector is going to make today’s discussion of overbuilding obsolete, because there just aren’t enough places for everybody today,’ ” he says.”

 The article is addressing … diffusing … concerns about over-building in the niche …

“ Demand mops up new supply.”

“Despite the new supply coming online, respondents remain confident in improving fundamentals. A majority of respondents (78 percent) anticipate that rents will rise over the next 12 months …”

Other notable comments include …

“When asked to rate the strength of market fundamentals by region, the South/Southeast/Southwest rated the highest.”

“When comparing with other property types, respondents continue to rate seniors housing as a highly attractive property type. Its scores topped that of the five major property types on a scale of one to 10.”

Okay, so it’s probably clear there’s some real opportunity here. 

But if you’re a Mom-and-Pop investor, does it make sense to jump into a niche that’s attracting big players … or are you just cruising for a bruising?

No … and YES!

When you invest in housing for seniors it’s critical to understand the difference between a high-density community and a residential facility …

… and not just from the investor’s perspective, but from the resident’s perspectve.

Let’s start with the resident …

 There are some seniors … probably MOST … and their children (the decision makers in many cases) who’d rather see Mom or Dad live in a real home …

… in a tree-lined residential neighborhood, with a backyard, and neighbors … where residents don’t feel like inmates in an institution.

Please understand … we’re not slamming the great people or services provided in bigger facilities. 

We’re just saying from a senior’s perspective, having a room in a home in a regular neighborhood FEELS a lot different than living in a room at a campus for old people.

But for a BIG investor, those individual homes are a logistical problem. 

To move BIG money, you need economies of scale and the ability to buy or build a lot of inventory at one time.

It’s the same problem Warren Buffet alluded to when he told CNBC …

“I’d buy up a ‘couple of hundred thousand” single-family homes if I could.”

The challenge, as noted in this Forbes article about Buffet’s statement, is …

“… the cost and logistics of making such an investment in large enough size to move the needle for Berkshire Hathaway is prohibitive.”

The point is big money can’t play well at the single-family residential (SFR) level …

… even if the SFR’s are being converted into highly-profitable residential assisted living facilities.

But YOU can.  And that’s why we like them.  Think about it … 

The supply and demand fundamentals are solid. 

The priority for expenditure is near the top of the list for any family.  Taking care of Mom or Dad is far from a discretionary purchase …

… so as an investor, being that far up your tenant’s payment priority ladder is a much safer place to be in uncertain economic times.

Plus, much of the money to pay you comes from insurance, government, and the senior’s estate.  In other words, you’re very likely to get paid … even in a weak jobs and weak wages economy.

Also, you don’t have to compete with big money investors, even though they clearly see the opportunity and are moving into the space. 

That’s because the barrier to entry for the big money isn’t how MUCH money is needed … it’s how LITTLE is needed.

Meanwhile, the customers would rather live in YOUR product than big money’s product.  So while big money is adding to supply, they’re not really in your niche.

This is a BEAUTIFUL thing.

But it gets better …

Residential assisted living homes can’t be mass produced.  They need to be built or converted one at a time.  There’s very little threat of a big player glutting the market.

And taking lessons learned from watching hedge funds move into the SFR space … big money was only able to acquire tens of thousands of SFRs because huge blocks of inventory were available temporarily through mass foreclosures. 

We don’t think there’ll be mass foreclosures in residential assisted living facilities.  They’re way too profitable.

But because this kind of senior housing is in high demand and highly profitable, at some point big money will start assembling them …

… buying up groups of homes from multi-facility operators … and then buying up nearby individual facilities which can strategically integrate into existing operations.

It’s called consolidation … and when it comes, big money will bid up existing operations (creating equity for those already there) …

… because they can recover the “over-payment” through operational efficiencies and financial leverage.

Between now and then, for the street level investor, the big opportunity is to be part of building the inventory by converting homes into residential assisted living facilities …

… cash-flowing along the way … then one day cashing out to big money players. 

And if those big money players never show up … just keep on cash-flowing while providing a much needed service to the community.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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The Case for Entrepreneurship

Posted by on August 21, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

Entrepreneurship is not for everyone. Being your own boss can be intoxicating and lucrative, but there’s a lot of work that goes into building a business.

The holy grail of being successful as a real estate investor is passive income. But to reach that goal, you have to come up with enough capital to feed your portfolio.

The typical path for an investor might be to work for someone else while saving and investing in real estate on the side, building a portfolio steadily and slowly until they reach a tipping point.

But for our guests, entrepreneurship offered an out from the rat race. Of course, it wasn’t an overnight process for either guest.

Listen in to hear us chat with two successful entrepreneurs about their paths to success … and the stumbling blocks they’ve encountered. These guests embody the maxim “Be more, do more, have more.”

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your entrepreneurial host, Robert Helms
  • His slightly eccentric co-host, Russell Gray
  • The original Shark Tank shark, Kevin Harrington
  • The Real Asset Investor, Dave Zook

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Getting his start with a creative solution

Kevin Harrington is credited with being the pioneer of long-form infomercial programming. That’s right … he invented a now-ubiquitous form of advertising.

We asked him how he got his start.

In the 80s, Kevin was watching Discovery Channel when he discovered the network went black for six hours a day. He saw an opening in the market … and started making 30-minute long-form advertisements to fill the space.

He’s a great example of someone finding a need in the market and monetizing it.

At the same time, Kevin was working to raise the profile of his own personal brand. That meant creating tons of material, appearing on talk shows, even writing books.

Eventually, Kevin got a call from Mark Burnett, the producer of Survivor, asking Kevin to be a part of Shark Tank.

Since then, Kevin’s built a global brand in marketing and investing.

Embracing change and failure to find success

We asked Kevin four questions about how he maintains success … and how newbies can find success too, despite inevitable failure.

How have your marketing techniques transformed with the profusion of modern media?

In a world with many diverse media sources, Kevin noted that television viewers are down by 50% today.

His solution is simple … “Follow the eyeballs.”

His audience is now on Facebook, Instagram, media streaming services … the list goes on.

To stay current, Kevin’s branched out into social media. He started using social media influencers and shortening ad times.

To be successful, an ad has to catch a viewer’s attention in the first five to eight seconds … much different than long-form infomercials.

It’s a different selling strategy, in different venues.

What is your business model?

Kevin told us he aims to invest in 20 projects a year, but only expects one-quarter to one-third of those to be successful.

“I fail more than I succeed,” he said. His goal is to “Fail fast, fail cheap, get the losers out of the way, and focus on the winners.”

He might lose $20,000 on an investment … but the winners bring in millions.

He finds inspiration in the quote, “Success is going from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”

What do new entrepreneurs need to focus on?

Kevin gave two great tips for budding entrepreneurs:

  • “Failure is part of your day to day.” Kevin told us that early on, “It really brought me down to put so much time, energy, and money into something that bombed.” But beginners NEED to know that failure is part of the game. Failures can pave the way for success, so dust yourself off and keep getting back on the horse.
  • “Surround yourself with a great dream team.” Kevin can do deals on the spot because he has a team of experienced lawyers, finance gurus, and mentors to back him up in every situation. Having a good team ensures you get paid the way you want to get paid. And Kevin sees too many entrepreneurs trying to do it all on their own. Success is a team effort.

How do you say no to ventures that might be good?

A key component of Kevin’s work is investing in entrepreneurs. He gets exposed to a LOT of ideas … so we asked him how he can pass up ventures that are pretty good, but not do-a-happy-dance good.

“I try to ask how I can help. I try to be involved,” Kevin said. He spends a lot of time providing advice and mentoring services to entrepreneurs who aren’t quite there yet.

“If you want to be successful and get what you want, just help enough people get what they want,” he said.

And Kevin does just that, spending equal amounts of time growing his own business and giving back to society by mentoring new entrepreneurs.

Breaking paradigms with syndication

Many people are under the impression that there’s only one path to building wealth through real estate investment … slowly building capital and buying properties one at a time until you’ve eventually accumulated enough.

Syndication breaks that paradigm, because the money you use to invest doesn’t have to be YOUR capital.

Dave Zook got started in syndication when he attended our Secrets of Successful Syndication event.

Dave was a published author and owner of several small businesses when he decided he wanted to dip his foot into syndication. He’s now raising millions of dollars each year to fund syndication deals.

For Dave, success means having his fingers in a lot of different pies. He recently invested in an office space that came onto the market at the right time, in the right place.

He’s also made a name for himself in the ATM business … a growing real asset.

Dave’s passive investors purchase the physical asset … the ATMs. Dave contracts with the land and business owners on whose property the ATMs sit. He also contracts with a management company to manage machines for investors.

ATMs offer both good cash flow and great tax benefits. And they are completely passive.

Dave’s investors get blended returns that are stable from month to month and dependable for a 7-year contract. And they get tax benefits when the assets depreciate after 5 years.

All investors have to do is sit back and watch.

Dave’s tried a lot of business ventures. He finds success in going ahead with the ones that are right for his situation and experience, and right for the market.

“Sometimes I have to pinch myself,” Dave told us. “It’s been an interesting journey.”

Dave will join us this year as faculty as Secrets of Successful Syndication … his way of giving back to a community that’s got him where he is today.

Just like Kevin, Dave’s been through highs and lows and come out the other side. He’ll share what he’s learned … and how you too can take action.

Want a preview of Dave’s wisdom? Interested in learning more about ATM investing? Listen in to get access to a special report Dave compiled just for our listeners!

Affording to lose and losing to WIN

Not everything these excellent entrepreneurs did worked.

In fact, many of their ideas failed. For Kevin, the majority of ventures STILL DO.

It’s a lesson to entrepreneurs … you need to be able to afford to lose.

Not everyone is cut out to be an entrepreneur. We can testify that entrepreneurs are wired a little differently.

They have to make opportunities where others just see dust and ashes. And that can be terrifying.

But it can also be exciting.

Whether you choose to be an entrepreneur or invest in one, entrepreneurship is what makes the world go ‘round.

Well, not literally … that’s gravity! But it does run the economy and create most jobs, and we think that’s pretty doggone important.

Until next time, go out and make some equity happen!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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North Korea and you …

Posted by on August 16, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

With so much craziness in the world, we thought we’d consider what it might mean for real estate investors.

After all, why should paper asset investors get all the thrills of global instability?  Real estate investing might be stable, but it doesn’t have to be boring!

Biggest sword competition …

You may have heard that U.S. President Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un recently publicly compared sword sizes.

Since both the U.S. and North Korea are nuclear powers … this has the world understandably jittery.  Though things seem to have calmed down the last few days.

Still, geo-political jitters usually amplify the two basic emotions of investing … fear and greed.

Scared money tends to flee to “quality.”  (Trapped money flees to Bitcoin … but that’s a different discussion …)

Frightened investors are more concerned about preserving capital and purchasing power (which aren’t necessarily the same thing) … than making a profit.

For much of recent history, a flight to quality meant piling into the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds.

But with another debt-ceiling debacle on the horizon, record debt at every level, pensions in crisis, huge unfunded liabilities, and an economy sending very mixed messages …

… it’s not inconceivable the world might not continue to see the U.S. dollar and bonds as the financial fallout shelter of choice.

Meanwhile, greedy money tends to focus on front-running the scared money, and buying up the scared money’s abandoned assets at bargain basement prices.

As for real estate investors …  we sit on the sideline munching popcorn and collecting rent checks.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks, opportunities and lessons for real estate investors to learn from all the drama.

War is expensive …

We recently discussed the potential shift from “monetary” stimulus (cheap money funneled from central banks to the financial markets) …

… to “fiscal” stimulus (government spending funneled into the economy on infrastructure and military spending).

Now we’re not saying Uncle Sam is purposely pursuing war to stimulate the economy.  That would be far too cynical for two happy-go-lucky real estate guys.

But IF more war happens, it’s sure to be expensive.  And because Uncle Sam already operates at a deficit and has no savings (technically “broke”) … it means a lot more borrowing.

The big question is … from whom does Uncle Sam borrow?

This matters because whom Uncle Sam borrows from to pay for more war … and how it’s done … will probably impact asset prices and interest rates.

Watch your monitors …

If Uncle Sam issues bonds (borrows) and the bids are soft, interest rates rise.  It also says something about the way the world views the dollar (not good).

Of course, this means rising interest rates in the whole swimming pool … including good debt (your mortgages) and bad debt (your tenants’ credit card and car loans).  Either or both of those affect your bottom line.

Another sign confidence in the dollar is declining will be a spike in gold prices.  

If gold catches a bid, it could mean scared money would rather hide in a barbarous relic with no yield … over stacks of paper with pictures of dead people printed in green ink.

(Not sure how green paper is less useless than yellow metal … but that’s a different debate …)

But if big money prefers gold over greenbacks, it’s a clue about the direction of the dollar.

And assuming your assets, liabilities, and income are all denominated in dollars, we’re guessing the value of the dollar is of interest to you … or should be.

Pre-emptive strike …

So what do you do when you don’t know what’s going to happen?

Here are some things to think about …

Uncle Sam already has a huge debt problem.  Another war doesn’t change anything … it just speeds it up.

In the short term, a flight to quality could be temporarily good for the dollar and drop rates by creating demand for both dollars and bonds.

If rates fall for a season (and even if they don’t … they’re pretty low right now), it might be a great time to back up the truck and load up on lots of good debt … and use it to acquire assets that conservatively yield more than the cost of the loan.

That’s effectively going “short” the dollar based at a time of temporary strength.

You can also go a little further short by adding some gold to the mix.  But remember, gold isn’t about profit … it’s about preservation of purchasing power.  

Sure, a falling dollar causes gold to go “up” in dollar terms, but so does everything else, so more dollars doesn’t put you ahead … it just keeps you from falling behind.

Side note …

If you’re not really sure about gold or how it fits into what you’re doing, join us when we speak at the New Orleans Investment Conference in October.   

Some of the biggest brains in precious metals and resource investing will be in New Orleans … along with our friends Robert Kiyosaki, Simon Black, Peter Schiff and Simon Black.  It’ll be like an Investor Summit at Sea™ reunion!

Back to our story …

Something else to consider carefully right now are the markets you’re invested in … because the idea of “flight to quality” applies to real estate markets too.

People and businesses will move to where they can get a better life at a better price.

We like affordable markets in low tax, business friendly, fiscally sound states …

… places with good infrastructure (transportation, utilities, medical, education, resources), strategic location (distribution, travel hub, geographic amenities), and diverse economic drivers.

Also, take a look at your current debt and equity structure.

It might be wise to harvest excess equity and lock in low long-term rates on properties you’re committed to owning long term.

You can then use the proceeds to pick up additional properties in growth markets … or add some cash, precious metals, or high-yield private mortgages to add some diversification into your portfolio.

Stay calm and invest on …

It’s easy to freak out when the world is weird.  But it’s been weird before and it’ll be weird again.

Meanwhile, unlike so many other styles of investing, real estate allows you to hedge most probable outcomes.

Plus, there’s the time-tested assurance that virtually every major power player in the food chain has a vested interest in supporting real estate.

No one wins when real estate loses … and even as we learned in 2008 … if a bomb goes off in real estate, the powers-that-be move heaven and earth to fix it as quickly as possible.

Sure, there’s risk.

But it’s risk that’s largely understandable, reasonably mitigated and … so long as you’re structured to weather the occasional economic storm …

… real estate is arguably the most stable and easily operated investment vehicle available to everyday people.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Clues in the News – Housing Sales, Home Improvement and Foreign Investors

Posted by on August 14, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

Every real estate investor is afloat in a vast economic sea. As an investor, it’s easy to believe you’re on stable ground … only to wake up and find you’ve drifted far from your goals.

We believe SMART real estate investors (you!) have to act a bit like ocean biologists … tracking the winds, noting the undercurrents, and keeping detailed observations of the environments you find yourself inhabiting.

One way to take your notes is to read the news. And in this edition of Clues in the News, we bring the news to you! Listen in to hear from:

  • Your economic sea biologist host, Robert Helms
  • His lowly research assistant, Russell Gray

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Slumps in home sales, builder confidence

This is a trend we’ve been observing for a while … existing home sales are decreasing. In June, they dropped 1.8% to the second lowest level this year.

If we stopped right there, you might think the economy is in trouble because people aren’t buying houses. But let’s take a closer look.

While sales of homes overall are dropping, the median home price in June was $263,800 … 6.5% higher than the same time last year.

All housing types aren’t equal. While prices are rising for houses in the 250k+ category, they’re falling for homes under 100k.

Just further evidence, like Robert Kiyosaki says, that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer.

The article linked above quotes Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, who says, “The demand for buying a home is as strong as it has been since before the Great Recession.”

So why are home sales dropping?

Many factors could contribute to a slow market … the growing number of millennials with high debt and inadequate income, for example. And the flux of institutional investors entering the real estate market.

Severe housing shortages are also leaving folks on the sidelines.

While the average median home price has risen, the median price of a new home has dropped by 3%.

Homebuilder confidence in recent months has reached record lows … leaving buyers hoping for a new home in the lurch.

If you look at the stock market, it would be easy to believe everything is peachy. But look at homebuilders … and you’ll see an indicator that not everyone has a bright outlook right now.

Fewer new homes, more home improvement

Speaking of homebuilders, housing inventory is at a 30-year low.

This while home prices have risen to pre-crisis levels in most markets (and far higher in a select few).

It’s a conundrum. Why are homebuilders moving at a snail’s pace? Why is homebuilder confidence so low?

Take a look at capital markets, and you’ll get a partial answer … real estate is heavily dependent on financing, and while the markets may have recovered from 2008’s recession, banks are still wary about giving loans.

In addition, 78% of homebuilders complain that labor shortages are their No. 1 concern.

Reliable, skilled labor is difficult to find. One reason? Construction workers found different careers during and after the recession … then never returned to the home-building business.

In lieu of buying new homes, homeowners are instead spending record sums on home improvements.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, “A shortage of new single-family homes across the U.S. is pushing up prices and locking many buyers out of the market.”

Note the certainty in that statement? Reporters are quick to assign cause and effect.

It’s your job to look at the bigger picture and see what’s going on. Then reexamine the conclusions made in the news … and draw your own.

Sales to foreigners up, buyers and sellers struggle outside U.S.

While home sales overall are down, Forbes reports that foreign investments in U.S. properties have skyrocketed recently. Sales to foreigners are up 49% over last year.

If you’re a U.S. investor familiar with the current political situation, you may be wondering what these investors are thinking.

But think about it … the U.S. has strong property rights, lots of renters, a relatively stable government, and strong infrastructure.

Buyers from China and Canada want to move their cash to a place where they see a better long-term future … and the U.S. fits the bill.

Speaking of Canada, a model produced by Better Dwelling predicts that Canadian home prices still have farther to fall.

Canadian real estate markets started crashing when the Canadian government made policy changes that hinder foreign investment.

It’s a lesson for investors to look at both the economics and the politics of a situation … then align themselves financially to policy decisions for the smartest payoffs.

You also need to be aware of the data … and what that means in terms of rising trends. While the Canadian housing market is struggling, lonely urban centers are predicted to be the next big real estate trend in the country.

While our friends across the border are seeing home prices fall drastically, our friends across the pond are seeing a dearth of affordable housing. 

An article we found recommends the London government lower tax rates for new homeowners and suggests 100% mortgages as another option.

The alternative is that London will see a “brain drain” as young workers unable to find affordable housing move outside of London.

This is a problem in the U.S. too, as large companies seek to find locations where workers can afford decent housing and quality-of-life measures are high.

The good thing about problems? (And there is a good thing.) If you’re creative, a problem is only an opportunity to create a solution.

Businesses and people need good places to live. Real estate markets have the opportunity to create them.

Homelessness and hedge fund managers

A recent article in Bloomberg listed the cities where rent hikes leave the most people homeless.

The bottom line is markets with less slack see more homelessness. The message for you? Slack is good.

It’s crucial for you to dig into your local market and figure out the dynamics driving outcomes. Many things can put a squeeze on your bottom line … make sure you’re aware of current and potential trends in demographics, jobs, and the local economy.

Winning markets don’t require a good economy to stay viable. They allow you to stay profitable even when factors change and be the recipient of demand when other markets are struggling to keep prices down and renters happy.

Remember, when you invest in the rental marketplace, you’re getting into a long-term contract. But a stable one.

Stability is probably one of the big reasons hedge fund managers and other wealthy investors are making a break for real estate.

They see the opportunity for a safe haven … but most don’t want to get their hands dirty. If you do, you may find doors opening for you.

Tune in to our next episode to hear an amazing guest make his case for entrepreneurship.

Until then, go out and make some equity happen!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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