As inflation remains at the highest level in more than 40 years, millions of Americans are facing financial hardship due to rising consumer prices.
Expectations for a 0.1% MoM drop in CPI has set the squeeze-algos on fire in recent days as the small drop signals ‘peak inflation’ and goldilocks and a unicorn-filled Fed will step back and declare victory (with a lag). Short-term interest-rates – however – have not been buying that dovish story, so how the market reacts to today’s print will be fascinating given the technical background of extreme negative delta and positioning, and now momentum. The market was pricing in a 90% chance of a 75bps hike by The Fed next week ahead of the CPI print.
With the Biden administration already setting the narrative yesterday that today’s inflation print could be ‘high’, and expectations for a headline print of +7.9% YoY (from +7.5% YoY in January), the bar was high for any surprises and the headline print came in right in the dot at +7.9% YoY – the highest since Jan 1982.