Finding High Yields in a Hot Market


Everyone loves a hot market! But hot markets have their disadvantages. 

When markets heat up … prices go up … and yields go down. 

But that doesn’t mean investors are stuck. 

There are things you can do to adapt and keep cash flow up … without having to change markets. 

We sat down to chat with our good friend John Larson to find out how he has made the most of one of the hottest markets in the last ten years. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your heating up host, Robert Helms
  • His hot-head co-host, Russell Gray 
  • Managing Partner of American Real Estate Investments, John Larson

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Adapting in a hot market

Dallas, Texas, has been a hot spot for real estate investors for the last decade. But .. like any market … the tide is starting to turn. 

After 2008, the rules of the market changed. 

Dallas stood out because it had not one … not two … but multiple drivers. 

It had population. It had education. It had transportation. It had a business-friendly environment, low income tax, medical finance, tech distribution … it was the whole package. 

It ended up being the best real estate market of the past ten years … and it’s not over yet … but yields have changed a lot. 

So, what’s an investor to do?

As Managing Partner of American Real Estate Investments, John Larson has had to adapt to the changing Dallas market. 

Many people knew John and his team as the Turnkey Single Family people in Dallas … but his company has had to change what they do while maintaining the big picture of WHY they did it. 

Debt syndication and using your retirement to make money now

John says that the Dallas market is hotter than ever … but in 2017, the cap rates on the single family homes started to get compressed. 

“You can only push rents up so far,” John says. “The values of homes kept going up because of the demand, so property went up as well.”

John says his investors came to him primarily for cash flow. They were looking for passive income. 

So, John needed to find some new ways to provide that cash flow that investors came for in the first place. 

The first project they took on was debt syndication … partnering with a developer and syndicating funds on the debt side. 

“We came in as lenders to buy the lot and get the construction completed and get those units leased as office space,” John says. 

A debt investor is someone that wants to have predictable income flow again, and it’s not as risky as other ventures … with the opportunity for BIG returns. 

At some point, you have to graduate from single family houses and move to the next level, like multifamily or office space. 

John says there are great deals to be found … but you have to do a little nosing around. 

And you can’t beat the opportunity for passive investing. 

With debt syndication, investors can be very hands-off and get as high a return as possible

Especially for the investor who is looking to lend money from their IRA or 401k, debt syndication is a great passive experience for them and a great way to maximize their retirement accounts. 

Many people don’t understand that they can put their retirement dollars to work … but as soon as you can self direct your retirement funds … you’ve opened up a whole world of alternative investments. 

Because of the nature of a retirement account, you can’t have a current benefit. It is really for tomorrow, not for today … so passive investments just make sense. 

These are solid deals in solid marketplaces … but people have a hard time getting their minds around why someone would want to use debt. 

In good deals, the asset pays back so quickly that there’s not a lot of risk on either side. 

It really just depends on how your personal investment philosophy fits in. 

Keep your money working 

If someone is looking to put their money to work in a debt syndication type of deal, the big question is … how long is this deal going to take?

John says that the longest term he has done so far was with a new construction project … that was 18 months. 

The average term for a deal is usually about one year. 

“We want to get you money back within a year and have another deal lined up for you so you can keep your money working,” John says. 

Keeping your money working … that’s the key to finding high yields in a hot market. 

Learn more about the Dallas market and how John and his team are finding new ways to create cash flow without changing markets by listening in to the full episode. 


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Lifestyle Investing for Family, Fun and Profit

You invest your money to make more money … but there is so much more to life than cash. 

Still, you have to have a way to fund your fun. Some say invest now and play later … but why not invest now AND play now, too?

We’re talking about lifestyle investing. 

Beautiful properties are available for you to live in … part of the time … and rent out for the rest. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your playmaker host, Robert Helms
  • His playful co-host, Russell Gray 
  • The Grove Resort’s Nick Rohrbach

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Lifestyle investing is in style

You can find an investment property that pays you to own it … a place where you can spend time and enjoy yourself. 

It’s called lifestyle investing. 

When most people invest in real estate, they don’t think about living in the house that they choose as a rental. 

But so many people own a house that they USED to live in … but now rent out. 

Lifestyle investing turns this idea on its head and blurs the lines to bridge the gap. 

You find a property that you would love to spend time in occasionally … and in the meantime, it creates income. 

Most of us invest in rental properties to create wealth so that we spend that money somewhere that we enjoy. 

With lifestyle investing, you buy and asset what you want to enjoy yourself and organize it so that it pays YOU to own it. 

A unique rental niche

In a typical rental property, your tenant normally moves once a year. But a lifestyle property is usually rented by the night … which makes management more expensive. 

On the other hand, while a monthly tenant might be paying the equivalent of $20 a day … a nightly vacation renter could pay several hundred dollars. 

You’re paying to have a hands-off experience … and you want to deliver an exceptional service level. 

One of the beautiful things about this niche is that you’re marketing to affluent people. You have customers who aren’t necessarily as burdened when economic times turn backward. 

Another great thing about resort properties … renters are typically tourists from out of town … which means you aren’t as reliant on ups and downs in the local economy. 

And when you have a really unique property, you can attract people from all over the world. 

Don’t get us wrong … it’s not just the world’s most wealthy we’re talking about. 

Some people save all year long for their vacation. They are frugal the rest of the year … but when it is time for vacation, they want to have a good time. 

Let’s be clear … lifestyle investments are NOT timeshares. 

A timeshare isn’t really real estate. It’s more like a prepaid vacation. You don’t have equity ownership. Lifestyle investments CREATE CASH FLOW. 

If you don’t have enough cash to get started, resort properties can be the perfect opportunity for simple syndication. 

With a few owners, you can all use the property for a certain amount of time each year … and share the profits the rest of the time. 

Factors to consider

When selecting a resort property, you need to decide how the seasonal market is. 

It’s like being in retail. If you have a strip mall, you know your tenants lose money during the off season … but they make it all up during the holidays. 

If your property is a prime skiing location … think about what happens to it during the summer. 

You need to look at the property as a totality of ownership … and then you have to be really good at managing cash flow. 

The good news is that you don’t need to go in blind. It’s like we always say … if you’re going into a market you’re not familiar with … BUILD RELATIONSHIPS. 

In this case, you really want to build relationships with property managers

They know the demographic. They know the trends. They know the inventory … and they really know the income. 

It is so important with any deal … and especially with lifestyle investments … to do your due diligence. 

But once you do … if you choose your market correctly … you’ll discover a market that is robust and not hung up in too much seasonality …. and then you choose a product that makes sense for you. 

Rentals at The Grove Resort

We caught up with our friend Nick Rohrbach at The Grove Resort to learn more about a really interesting lifestyle investment opportunity. 

The Grove is an amazing resort property in Orlando … amazing facilities, a 7-acre water park, a four-star spa, and a stone’s throw from the Disney theme parks.

The people who visit here are all about the lifestyle. 

And for investors, it means owning a beautiful, professionally managed resort property in one of the hottest markets in the USA. 

Nick says that many tourists come to spend their days at theme parks … but then they want somewhere comfortable and luxurious to come back. 

What makes The Grove a unique opportunity is that the big ticket amenities … including the water park … are included in the rate. 

“That’s what makes our occupancy higher than average, and average occupancies in the area are already fairly high at 77.5% in Orlando,” Nick says.

The Grove caters toward a wide variety of guests … there are spaces for weddings, family reunions, and small conventions. 

The suites at The Grove are all two and three bedroom condos … perfect for families or employees. 

Units are completely turnkey … and managed by a team that has been in business in the area for over 40 years. 

“And Orlando really is a year round destination,” Nick says. 

Ultimately … like any investment opportunity … you need to find a deal that works with your personal investment philosophy. 

Interested in learning more about The Grove? “Come on-site and stay with us,” Nick says. 

To learn more about lifestyle investing and opportunities at The Grove Resort, listen in to the full episode. 


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Podcast: Lifestyle Investing for Family, Fun and Profit

Life and investing are much more than just making money.

Of course, profits are important for funding a fun lifestyle … but why wait?

In this episode, we discuss the idea of investing in beautiful properties you’d love to live in … sometimes … and rent out the rest of the time.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Cashing In On the Space Race – New Homes in a Market Ready for Lift-Off

The space race is on!

No … we’re not talking about the great cosmos overhead. We’re talking about a race for space in a thriving market. 

Central Florida is thriving thanks to international tourism, low taxes, strong population growth, and great infrastructure. 

Billions of public and private dollars are making their way into this market … We’ve liked it for a long time … and it’s getting even better. 

Discover how YOU can cash in on this space race as we hear tips from an on-the-ground expert. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your out-of-this-world host, Robert Helms
  • His out-of-the-way co-host, Russell Gray 
  • Central Florida investment property specialist, Jean Gillen

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Welcome to the “space coast”

Today we’re talking about a market that is well-positioned for growth and equity … it’s the “space coast” in Florida!

Central Florida is one of the markets we’ve loved for a long time … every time we visit we see cranes helping build new projects. 

When we analyze a market, we look at the dynamics in supply and demand, capacity to pay, and what’s going on in mortgage rates and demographics … and don’t forget taxes and incentives!

There are so many things happening right now in this particular market that create an environment where equity can really POP. 

One big story of this area is … the space coast. 

For many years, the space industry was 100 percent a government entity. You had NASA … and that was it. 

But when the shuttle program stopped … everything changed. 

Individual businesses and entrepreneurs came in to fill the void and pick up the slack … and things really blasted off!

We see a lot of similarities between what is happening in Central Florida now and what happened several years ago in Silicon Valley. 

These organizations are growing and bringing in a new workforce to fill jobs … but there aren’t enough houses. It’s a great opportunity as an investor to help find a solution. 

Growth and opportunity in Central Florida

Our good friend Jean Gillen and her team at Gillen & Associates are Central Florida investment property specialists. 

For nearly 30 years, Jean has been actively helping investors cash in on opportunities in this marketplace … she knows this place like the back of her hand. 

For Jean and the investors she helps every day, the space race is real. 

The Central Florida market is uniquely nestled within an hour of three international airports … Orlando, Orlando Melbourne, and Orlando Sanford. 

It’s the number one visited place in the world … 75 million people come through each year. 

Some are passing through to other connections. Others come for theme parks and to hop on cruises. And the rest … it seems … come for NASA.

And so many of those people come to stay. 

Over 350 space industry companies have moved to the market … after all, it’s the only place in the United States from which you can put a man in orbit. 

A huge amount of millennials have followed those companies for job opportunities … but baby boomers are moving in as well. 

With no intention of retiring any time soon, baby boomers want to live around other baby boomers. The 55+ communities come calling … and they are cheap and cheerful. 

But it’s not just the space industry that has come to town. Infrastructure has to grow to serve all those new residents … like doctors, retail, and restaurants.

Florida is also a prime spot for tax incentives … and there’s no state income tax. 

“I don’t think there is a better economy in the United States right now,” Jean says. “Oh, and the weather’s good.”

Another important thing to note, Jean says, it that many of the people coming to the area aren’t necessarily coming for a full-time gig. 

Many of the workers in these industries come on a one or two year contract … which means that these folks will always be tenants … and you can plan on a steady flow of tenants for rentals.

Properties with potential

Most of the houses Jean and her investors work with are new builds that come in at around $210,000. Insurance … including hurricane insurance … comes out to about $600 a year. 

“The hurricane risk in the area is very low. That’s why the insurance rates are so low. It should make you feel fairly safe on that front,” Jean says. 

Another unique factor in the Central Florida market … it’s actually a better deal most of the time to buy a new build over a resale house. 

And tenants are definitely attracted to new … and all the amenities that come with them … granite countertops and stainless steel appliances anyone?

Jean also feels it’s important to keep most of the homes owner occupied. 

“It keeps the neighborhood up, so we usually keep the amount of houses owned by investors in a development at 10 percent. It works out so much better that way for everyone,” Jean says. 

But as with any market, there are unique considerations to keep in mind. 

Jean says she never helps investors buy lots that are in flood zones. The properties have to be turnkey … and a good school district is always a plus. 

Many of the tenants in the area work several days a week from home … so extra bedrooms that can function as a home office space are a must. 

And Jean is all about beautiful backyards … most lots are a quarter of an acre … and there is no HOA. 

Typically, tenants stay for three years … and tenant-landlord laws are very landlord friendly. 

Joining the space race 

Jean and her team work exclusively with investors … but those investors come from a variety of situations and backgrounds. 

Some are 30 years old … others are 70 … but they’re all looking for a profitable deal. 

We’ve said it before … and we’ll say it again … the key to a great deal is finding a market that makes sense, finding the right team, and THEN finding the right property. 

To learn more about Central Florida … and to find out if this it the right deal for you … listen in to the full episode. 


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Podcast: Cashing In On the Space Race – New Homes in a Market Ready for Lift-Off

The stars are aligning for real estate investors in a market we’ve liked for a long time. And it’s getting even better.

Billions of dollars … both public and private … are making their way into a re-invigorated space race … in a market already thriving thanks to international tourism, low taxes, strong population growth, great infrastructure, and so much more.

Discover how investors are cashing in on the space race as we discuss Central Florida with a boots-on-ground market expert!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Finding Turnkey Rentals in Positive Cash-Flow Markets

When it comes to positive cash-flow, there are two things more important than your investment property … your market and your team. 

Our good friend Terry Kerr at Mid South Home Buyers knows this better than anyone. 

Terry and his team have cracked the code for consistent cash-flow from rental homes in one market … and are expanding into another!

We sat down with this world-class investor to find out why, where, and how he is creating positive cash-flows with turnkey rentals. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your cash-flow crazy host, Robert Helms
  • His go-with-the-flow co-host, Russell Gray 
  • Owner and founder of Mid South Home Buyers, Terry Kerr
  • New investor contact at Mid South Home Buyers, Liz Nowlin

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Market, team, and cash-flow

We’re talking about a resilient market that has been a great cash-flow area for YEARS … Memphis, Tennessee. 

When we first looked into the Memphis market it was a little blue-collar town and the bankruptcy capital of the United States. 

Price points were low … and on paper it looked like cash-flow was solid. 

Many investors are suspicious of high cash-flow markets … they often mean high expenses, high turnover, tough demographics, and difficult management. 

But when markets get overheated and financing goes away, what really matters is cash-flow.

You can make money in these types of markets … you just need to have the right team. 

A team that has … for us … stood head and shoulders above the rest has been Terry Kerr and the experts at Mid South Home Buyers. 

Terry and his associate Liz Nowlin run the gold standard investment operation in the Memphis area. They have over 2,500 homes … and a waitlist of eager investors hoping to partner with them. 

So, Mid South Home Buyers is expanding into a new market … and they’re here to share what they’ve learned in Memphis … and their predictions for future opportunities. 

Creating turnkey investments

Terry is Memphis born and Memphis raised. He started buying and flipping properties … and ended up forming a property management business. 

Now, his team at Mid South Home Buyers purchases homes, renovates them, leases them to residents, and sells them to investors. 

Terry and his team have some creative approaches to the process. 

Homes are outfitted with the same fixtures … saving time and purchasing power. 

And they now purchase materials directly from suppliers … basically building their own personal hardware store … opening budgets to more rehab for each property. 

Essentially, they’re creating turnkey investments. They find the property, figure out what needs to be done, do it, and find a tenant. 

Not to mention that they manage about 2,700 houses in Memphis, too!

It’s all about becoming more efficient … and efficiency leads to cash-flow. 

The biggest … and really only … complaint we hear from investors is that Terry and his team only operate in Memphis … but now they’re delving into another market. 

They’re moving to … Little Rock!

Making the move to Little Rock

We’ve had our eyes on Little Rock for a while now. It’s definitely a market on the move. 

Little Rock is about two hours away from Memphis … and it’s a greater population that covers a greater area. 

The Little Rock properties will look just like those in Memphis … the same renovation materials, same fantastic price-to-rent ratios, and the same long warranties and occupancy guarantees. 

“We’re going to be doing the same top of the line rehab with slightly under market rents to give us the best occupancy rate. Right now in Memphis, we’re at 99.4 percent occupancy,” Terry says. 

But in any venture … it’s important to expand to meet investor demand without compromising quality. 

“It took us several years to make the jump to Little Rock, because we wanted to make sure that our systems and foundations were built correctly,” Terry says. 

If the rehab is high quality … then the resident is happy. When the property doesn’t break down for the owner … then the owner’s happy … and they buy more properties!

Since Little Rock is so close to Memphis … Mid South Home Buyers can keep central command in the same location.

Arkansas has excellent tenant-landlord law and tons of houses in the “goldilocks construction style” … not too big, not too small. 

“We’ve got a lot of beautiful brick houses between 1,000 and 1,500 square feet, three bedroom, two bath, ranch-style homes built on a slab. It’s a good, low-maintenance construction style,” Liz says. 

And the really great thing? All of these Little Rock properties will be offered straight down the waitlist … music to investors’ ears!

Advantages of a turnkey operation

There are several advantages to considering a turnkey operation … one where everything is done for you. 

First, you have a quality renovation every time. 

When you work with a company like Mid South, which holds every renovation to an identical standard, you know what you’re getting. 

Mid South homes have a brand new 30-year roof, new water heater, new furnace, new air condenser, and everything from door knob handles to ceiling fans with bumper to bumper one-year warranties. 

Second, it’s easier to keep accountability in one place. 

Since Mid South is there from start to finish, they can offer you a lifetime occupancy guarantee … if your property is vacant for more than 90 days, they start paying you rent on day 91. 

“And we’re proud to say we’ve never spent a penny on that. because our properties don’t stay vacant that long,” Liz says. 

Third, you can see what you’re getting … in every phase of the process … before you invest. 

When Mid South clients take advantage of viewing the inventory in person before buying … it pushes their confidence through the roof. 

“I give potential investors a tour of our offices and show them houses in four stages of renovation, so they walk away with a great understanding of our business model,” Liz says. 

And, they get a taste of some world class barbecue … it is Memphis after all. 

Whether it’s your first investment or your 400th … turnkey rentals could be the positive cash-flow solution you’re looking for. 

Listen in to the full episode to learn more!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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From Disney World to Bizarro World …

The real estate story behind Walt Disney World in Florida has a valuable lesson for investors today … and it’s not what you think.

If you’re unfamiliar, Walt Disney decided to create a new and improved East Coast version of his epic California Disneyland. But he needed land … LOTS of it.

So he went to Florida.

By then, Disney was a household name and the success of Disneyland was well known. This created a problem for Disney.

If local landowners realized Disney was behind the assemblage of land needed to build another park, it could take a lot more time and money to get the project done.

So even when the land deal hit the news in May 1965, Disney waited months to announce his plan to build Disney World.

The obvious lesson is to avoid showing deep pockets when the other party has leverage.

But that’s not why we’re talking about it today.

There’s something else going on in the world … something we’ve been watching for some time … that could become one of the biggest financial stories in the last 50 years.

So while financial reporters hang dutifully on every word that proceeds out of the mouth of Jerome Powell today

… there’s another voice in the marketplace only a few nut jobs (like us) are paying attention to.

Gold. And yes, this matters to real estate investors.

But it’s not what gold is doing in response to what the Fed says. It’s about what gold is saying about the state of the system that the Fed is not.

Of course, there are implications for you and your investments … real estate and otherwise.

The quandary for pundits everywhere is why the Fed is considering lowering interest rates in the midst of “the greatest economy ever”.

Typically, interest rates are lowered to stimulate a sluggish economy.

Sure, it’s possible the economy could be far less robust than claimed.

You probably know this is now officially the longest “recovery” on record … so perhaps a preemptive boost is a good idea.

Maybe the Fed is simply yielding to President Trump’s pleas to go tit for tat with those pesky currency manipulators … to help keep America’s exporters competitive.

If you read the financial news, it’s easy to get lost in all the conjecture surrounding the dollar, the Fed, the economy, and interest rates.

But while people are bickering about political intervention in monetary policy, and what it all means to asset values …

 central banks around the world have been quietly stocking up on gold at the fastest pace in 50 years.

So what?

Think of Wall Street and insider trading. When insiders of a corporation buy or sell … it’s often because they know something others don’t.

Savvy stock traders watch these moves for clues about the future of the stock.

When it comes to money … or more accurately, currency … you can’t get much more “inside” than central banks.

It’s reasonable to think they know something.

Most “investors” look at gold as a trading vehicle … something to buy and sell in order to create currency “profits” in the same way a flipper trades houses to generate currency profits.

But central banks can print currency … at next to no cost. They don’t need to trade gold or anything else to generate currency. They can print all they want.

Think about that.

Could it be gold has another role in international finance?

Apparently, China and Russia think so. Along with Poland, Hungary and Malaysia … to name just a few. The list is long.

Another notable advocate for putting gold back in money is Judy Shelton. Shelton is President Trump’s latest nomination to the Federal Reserve Board.

It’s also notable that of ALL the things Fed Chair Jerome Powell could say in his limited testimony to Congress, he chose to warn them against a return to the gold standard.

Maybe it’s just us, but reminds us of this admonition from the Wizard of Oz

“Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”

So what does all that have to do with Disney?

Remember, Disney wanted to accumulate land without anyone realizing what he was really up to. Everyone just looked at each deal as a one-off.

Disney and his team were careful to be sure no one saw the master plan until he unveiled it.

(Of course, people playing close attention figured it out … but by the time the masses knew, the deal was done).

But think about this …

If YOU had an unlimited credit card, no ethics, and knew you were about to go bankrupt … might you use your credit to buy and stash things of real value before the card is shut off?

If the players in the casino know the house is about to go bust, there’s a mad dash to cash in the soon-to-be-worthless chips.

Just remember, these are big, lumbering central banks and a worldwide financial system. “Soon” can take months … or years.

So no one knows exactly when the tipping point comes. It’s slow at first … and then all at once.

We’ve been watching this story develop since we first wrote about it in our Real Asset Investing report in 2013.

We discuss it in more detail in the videos of our more recent Future of Money and Wealth conference.

It’s clear there’s SOMETHING going on …

The ultimate currency insiders are aggressively acquiring gold. Nations who had entrusted their gold to third parties are steadily repatriating. Perhaps not so trusting anymore?

Lots of things going on geo-politically have no apparent rhyme or reason, until you look past the chatter about democracy and human rights … and just follow the gold and oil.

Richard Nixon shocked the world on August 15, 1971 when he changed the entire global monetary system in a “temporary” defense of the dollar.

Gold and oil spiked as the dollar collapsed. Interest rates were eventually hiked to over 20% to save the dollar. Every individual and business on the planet was affected.

Some people lost fortunes while others made them. The difference was (and still is) awareness, preparation, and a willingness to act when others stand paralyzed.

Some people noticed the exploding debt of the 60’s, the silver coming out of the coins in 1964, and the French President’s public warning about misplaced faith in the U.S. dollar.

People paying attention back then positioned themselves to prosper in spite of … or more accurately, because of the turmoil.

That’s why we attend and produce investor mastermind events like the New Orleans Investment Conference and the Investor Summit at Sea™.

It’s where we talk with alert investors and savvy thought leaders … searching for actionable intelligence in a noisy, chaotic world.

Though largely ignored and misunderstood by many on Main Street, there’s a very public and aggressive global search for alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

Whether it’s gold, crypto, the yuan, or something else … if and when a viable alternative to the dollar is embraced by the rest of the world …

… Americans could well be faced with spiking interest rates (the Fed will lose control), a collapsing dollar, rising asset prices in dollar terms (inflation), falling values in real terms, and a contracting economy (recession).

Those with low fixed-rate debt, real assets (including gold), cash-flow producing investments (like rental property), are likely to be big winners.

The world didn’t END when Nixon reset the system. It just changed.

So this isn’t doom and gloom … it’s hope and opportunity … IF you’re among the aware, prepared, and prone to act.

After all, if you own solidly cash-flowing properties in affordable markets, while holding a chunk of your liquid reserves in gold (with no counter-party risk) …

… and nothing happens, how are you worse off?

But if gold is the canary in the coal mine signaling that the Wizards are up to something, it might be smart to be hedged.

Until next time … good investing!


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Market analysis for dummies …

Buying an income producing property is an investment in the underlying economy.

That’s REALLY where the income originates. That’s why we put so much emphasis on market analysis.

Investors who focus exclusively on deal analysis (crunching the numbers on the property) but fail to underwrite the market sometimes end up in a mess.

The context of a deal is the macro-environment … things like interest rates, taxes, energy costs … that affect everyone everywhere.

But there’s also regional factors … local taxes, landlord law, supply and demand, and jobs.

Once all those things check out, you (probably through your boots-on-the ground team) go to the street level and start looking for a deal that makes sense by the numbers.

That’s because a strong market will lift a marginal deal, while a weak market can suck the life out of even a “good” deal.

Market selection matters.

Of course, that’s easy to say. But figuring markets out can be a bit of a challenge.

So we cheat.

While in school it’s frowned upon to sneak a peak at the smart kid’s homework … in the real world of real estate investing it’s actually a preferred practice.

In this case, the very smart folks at Cushman Wakefield recently released a report they call Spotlight on U.S. Employment – A Tale of 35 MSAs.

As you’ll see, it’s about office space. But even if you’re not an office investor, the report is helpful for understanding where jobs are being created … and why.

Remember, market analysis is about economic activity. And even if you’re exclusively an affordable housing investor and your target tenant doesn’t work in an office … remember, high-paying jobs create a ripple effect.

That’s because a six-figure office worker spends a chunk of their income at local businesses … restaurants, healthcare, auto needs, entertainment, etc.

In fact, as Amazon claimed during the highly publicized hunt for their HQ2, each high-paying job creates an additional 4-5 jobs in the local market.

Our point is that tracking the office market can be a good gauge of local economic vibrancy, no matter what type of real estate you’re investing in.

So let’s dig into the report and see which markets look promising …

“While the U.S. economy has added jobs at a steady pace … the growth in employment has not been evenly distributed.”

“ … hotspots … have outperformed the national average … based on local market factors.”

Isn’t that that way it always goes? The world’s not fair … and that’s GREAT …

… because it means well-informed strategic real estate investors can dramatically improve their odds of success simply by being attentive to market selection.

The CW report looks at 35 markets over 9 years and divides them into categories … All-Stars,Over-AchieversMiddle-of-the-Road, and Late-Bloomers (like us!).

The first three are probably self-explanatory. Late-Bloomers are markets whose growth the last four years is substantially higher than the first five years.

We think there might be some real opportunity in Late-Bloomer markets because they’re less likely to attract attention (and competition) from less studious investors.

It’s kind of like a team with a few early season losses that gets hot at the end of the season, sneaks into the playoffs ranked low, and then shocks everyone.

We’re not saying momentum is all that matters, but it happens for a reason … so it’s probably worth a deeper dive.

But let’s start with the five All-Stars …

  1. Dallas
  2. New York City
  3. San Francisco
  4. Riverside / San Bernadino
  5. Austin
  6. Orlando

Dallas is no surprise to us. We’ve been attracted to Dallas since the Great Recession.

At least in the beginning, and even to this day, DFW has it all … business friendly, low-tax, great infrastructure, geographically linked economic drivers (energy and distribution). It’s awesome.

But NYC and SF? High-tax, uber-regulated, very unaffordable. What gives?

We’re guessing it probably has to do with lots of the Fed’s easy money flooding into the financial and tech sectors.

Of course, from an income property investing perspective, neither NYC or SF makes much sense by the numbers or the business climate.

And if someone trips over the cord at the Fed and the printing press stops, it might suck the equity out of those markets. We saw a little of that happen as rates rose and the Fed tightened.

And add to that the recent tax code pouring some SALT on the wound, wealthy folks are leaving … and in many cases, taking their businesses and spending with them.

The point is that just because a market is on the All-Star list for job creation and office space absorption doesn’t make it a n0-brainer market for residential income property investing.

You still need to use your brain.

Meanwhile, we’re guessing the San Bernardino / Riverside market growth is probably distribution related. There’s a zillion people in Southern California … and if you want to ship stuff to them fast, you need nearby distribution.

The Inland Empire is among the most affordable and open areas in California to build these big centers. It’s also not too far from the ports bringing containers of merchandise for domestic distribution.

So ff we HAD to invest in California again, the Inland Empire would probably be on the short list.

But the bigger lesson here is to pay attention to the role of distribution in driving a market’s job growth. It’s one of the shining stars of commercial property investing.

And when you dig deeper, you’ll see distribution is something several top markets have in common … and those jobs aren’t getting offshored … though they could be robotized.

Of course, technology doesn’t necessarily kill jobs … but it can move them. After all, robots need to be built, installed, programmed, updated, repaired.

So that’s just one more trend for a savvy investor to watch carefully.

Among the Late-Bloomers are markets we know and like are Jacksonville and Memphis. Landlord friendly, good numbers, and apparently some good local economics.

What’s educational and fun (at least for real estate junkies) is to look at these “hot lists” and then analyze the markets for similarities and themes.

You’ll often find clues about what makes a market attractive to employers and resilient for investors. Then you’ll recognize these factors sooner in lesser known markets and able to make your move ahead of the crowd.

Just remember … while sneaking a peak at the smart kid’s homework can shorten your learning curve, it’s not a substitute for doing your own homework.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Podcast: Opportunity Zones Update – Defer, Reduce, and Even Eliminate Taxes

Opportunity zones is one of the hottest topics in real estate investing right now. Recently released guidelines provide much needed clarity to help investors and syndicators move forward.

In this episode, we re-visit Opportunity Zones with attorney Mauricio Rauld and discuss how opportunity zones are rolling out to help investors defer, reduce, or even completely eliminate capital gains taxes.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Podcast: Using Market Metrics to Spot Trends and Opportunities

Every property you own sits in a market that’s in motion.

MANY factors affect the all-important supply, demand, and capacity-to-pay dynamics which dictate the health and direction of your investment.

But like a skilled-mariner on a choppy sea, you can read the wind, waves, and stars to chart a safer and more prosperous course.

So listen in to this episode as we explore using market metrics to spot trends and opportunities.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

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