Mastering Market Trends to Find Late-Cycle Opportunities

They say the best deals go first … so it is too late in the cycle to find great real estate investment opportunities?

We say the answer is no. 

We’re visiting with a multi-market investor who is finding plenty of deals … even this deep into the economic cycle. 

Join us as we push past talk of bubbles and compressed cap rates to uncover deals still up for steals!

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your dealing host, Robert Helms
  • His reeling co-host, Russell Gray 
  • President of ROI Turn Key Properties, Jared Garfield

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The complex market ecosystem

It’s not just important what you invest in … but where. 

Markets are different across the world. So, today we’re going to focus on studying market trends to find excellent real estate investments. 

There is a lot of talk about “the market cycle.” But you see, there’s not just one market cycle. And some market cycles run concurrently. Others lag … and some are completely opposite of others. 

The key is to make decisions on where to invest depending on where you think the puck is going. 

Remember that markets are more than just geography. They also take in demographics. 

Economic cycles affect markets too … and they are affected by the business cycle … the ebb and flow of supply and demand. 

It’s an extremely complex ecosystem. 

Because real estate moves slowly, you don’t day trade. You look out at the horizon and think about the long game. 

There’s also a lot you can learn from other people’s experiences. There are plenty of resources from people who have been through a market downturn or downward cycle before. 

Just don’t forget that in real estate, there is no one great, perfect real estate market. 

The trick is to match a market with your personal investment philosophy … who you are as an investor, what you’re trying to accomplish, your goals and dreams. 

Focusing on a handful of markets can make a lot of sense in the long term. 

Our guest is in a lot of markets and does a lot of thinking and research about this very topic … and he is here to talk about some of the markets he likes for investors today. 

Identifying and adapting to markets

Jared Garfield used to go to his grandfather’s real estate office, drink soda, and talk real estate. 

“From the time when I was a kid, I wanted to be in real estate and follow in the family business,” Jared says. 

But Jared learned from his family’s successes and failures … and what he learned was the power of diversification. 

Jared started buying houses in college. He bought foreclosures and flipped them for modest profits. After graduation, he built up a pretty large real estate portfolio. 

But Jared recognized that markets change. A market that is more cash flow oriented becomes more of an appreciation market over time. Dallas, Texas, is the perfect example. 

So, Jared spends a lot of his time watching that evolution and … to the best degree possible … anticipating it. 

“I developed a spreadsheet that analyzes 278 metropolitan statistical areas across the entire country on about 80 different metrics,” Jared says. 

Jared incorporated everything from poverty level to crime to test scores to media to affordability … and he looked at appreciation, building permits, job growth, population and more. 

“With that, we’ve identified some markets where you can really outperform many of the other markets,” Jared says. 

Jared also says it is important to think about submarkets. Investors tend to be the first in when there is an opportunity and the first to leave. 

So, Jared likes to look at secondary and tertiary markets. Take Huntsville, Alabama, for example. 

Huntsville is known as the Pentagon of the South. It’s home to NASA, Boeing, Lockheed, and Raytheon, and the FBI just moved 4,500 jobs from Langley to Huntsville. 

Jared bought foreclosed houses in C or C+ neighborhoods for $28,000 to $35,000. They put in an average of $30,000 into rehab. Five years later, those homes are selling for about $120,000. 

The cash flow is really good. 

But, Jared says, you have to deploy different strategies at different phases of the cycle

Now that Huntsville is no longer an absorption project … it’s expansion, full tilt … there is no reason to buy turnkey in C class neighborhoods. Instead, it makes more sense to buy new construction. 

“A market gives you what the market gives you, and you have to decide how to take that and turn it into something that makes sense,” Jared says. 

Selecting the right market for you

There’s a lot to learn about selecting and profiting in high cash flow markets … that’s why Jared has prepared a special report for our listeners. 

In this report, Jared shares how to choose markets … the metrics you should use and how to understand the difference between high cash flow markets and others. 

Jared also shares what things you should watch for in each of his top market picks. 

One of those big factors is the one-horse town. 

A one-horse town doesn’t mean small. It could also mean a big town with a very segmented workforce. 

Seattle took a bath when Boeing laid-off workers in 1990. Houston had it rough because it used to be pretty much just oil. You’ve got to have a diversity of employment and industries. 

“I like to invest in towns that are at least 300,000 in population and have a variety of employment sectors,” Jared says. 

With single-family investing, all the data is there for you to pick the right market and get high returns … you just have to know how to look. 

For more tips and experiences from Jared, listen in to the full episode!

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