Clues in the News — Bears, Bailouts and the 3-Headed Monster

The global shutdown from COVID-19 concerns have spun headlines that scream of businesses small and large under EXTREME distress. 

This leads us to ask a question you’ve heard us ask before … is it possible to see the forest for the trees?

We’re trekking into the headlines to discover bears, bailouts … and a 3-headed monster. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your intrepid host, Robert Helms
  • His imaginative co-host, Russell Gray

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Finding Clues in the News during COVID-19

With so much going on today … it’s time for another edition of clues in the news!

When the world changes, investing strategy changes. With COVID-19 disrupting economies, financial systems, and daily life, we’re experiencing something like nothing we’ve seen in modern history. 

Sheltering in place might protect you from the virus … but taking the same wait and see approach to investing is like pulling the sheets over your head while the house burns down. 

Now is not the time to be complacent. 

Even though there are a lot of things to be concerned about in the news right now … there’s also a lot of things to be excited about. 

Rent and unintended consequences

The big question on everyone’s minds is what happens when the rent comes due. When $81 billion in rent payments come due … and many Americans can’t pay … what do landlords and tenants do?

Several governors have put moratoriums on evictions of any kind for a month or several months. 

But that leaves many real estate investors and property managers thinking, “Is that just giving everyone license not to pay rent?”

We can’t say what’s going to happen … but we know that this situation is going to change things. 

What we can say is that a theme that we are going to see throughout the rest of 2020 and beyond is going to be … unintended consequences. 

At the end of the day, everyone is under intense scrutiny and under tremendous pressure. Sometimes, this can cause what we call an “icy road” reaction. 

If you’ve ever lost control on an icy road … then you know that humans tend to overreact. Then that overreaction creates another reaction that you overreact to again. 

The result … you’re fishtailing out of control. 

One of the biggest lessons YOU can take as an investor is to stay calm, divorce yourself from your feelings politically, and look at what is really happening. 

Only then can see what choices you are going to have to make and what aspects are in your control that you can respond to. 

As this first month comes and goes, it may be a good idea to take a look at your rental portfolio, see the effects … and make plans and predictions based on the clues you see. 

Mortgages and the Fed

Many of the same lessons apply to the folks who can’t make their mortgage. But some unique considerations and clues lie here, too. 

The mortgage industry is seeking billions in federal help as homeowners stop paying their loans. 

Here’s an industry that was at the epicenter of the last downturn … and the perfect example of those unintended consequences. 

If the tenant can’t work, they can’t pay. And if they can’t pay you, you can’t pay the mortgage. 

The challenge is in the Fed’s zeal to keep interest rates down and to keep people borrowing to prop up real estate prices, they’ve stepped into the market as an artificial player. 

They’ve purchased around $183 billion of mortgage-backed securities … which means they bid up the price of securities to push interest rates down. 

That act, which the Mortgage Banking Association seems to have not anticipated, now means they are getting margin calls … having to come up with lots of cash. 

We don’t think the Fed went in planning to blow up the mortgage banking business … but the unintended consequences mean they might. 

Keeping an eye on the Fed and on bonds can yield valuable clues as we move forward. 

The goings on in oil   

What about what’s happening in oil?

When oil prices are lower … then there’s less incentive for producers to pull the oil out of the ground and send it anywhere. At these prices, it’s difficult to make money. 

But when oil prices are low, it can be a boon to your tenants. 

The reason oil is low and available is because no one is consuming it. We’re not going to work. Airlines aren’t flying. Demand is down. 

But Russia, by refusing to participate in OPEC has driven the price down, too. 

That’s going to hurt the U.S. … which just achieved energy independence in terms of being a net oil exporter on the backbone of shale. 

But here’s the dirty little secret … most of that was driven by debt. The shale industry is horribly in debt … and that debt is all potentially in danger of going bad. 

We’ve been very concerned about the level of debt in the oil industry and whether or not the industry would actually become profitable enough to be able to service it without being able to roll it over. 

This is one that you should be paying attention to … not just for the oil jobs and not just for the cost of production and cost of living for your tenants. 

The industry hasn’t broken yet, but it’s definitely showing signs of weakness. 

Now, the backside of doom and gloom is opportunity. And if you can secure cash flow and be on the right side of events as they happen, opportunity can be found. 

For more clues in the news … listen to our full episode!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Podcast: Clues in the News – Bears, Bailouts and the 3-Headed Monster

Dire headlines scream of businesses – small and large – under EXTREME distress because of the global shutdown.

Is it possible to see the forest for the trees?

Tune in as we trek into the headlines to discover bears, bailouts … and a 3-headed monster.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Crisis Investing Lessons — Navigating Uncharted Waters

Crisis is part of the investment game … and while the COVID-19 virus crisis is unlike any we’ve seen in modern memory, it’s not the first … or the last … crisis you’ll face as an investor. 

The good news is that history shows us two things. 

One … the human race will survive. And two … the backside of all busts is a big boom. 

Until the crisis passes, we all need to find a way to survive … physically and financially. 

Today, we’re talking about how lessons learned from the 2008 crisis can be applied to what we face today. We are focusing on how you can not only survive … but also thrive!

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your thriving host, Robert Helms
  • His surviving co-host, Russell Gray

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Think and do

With so much going on in the world today, it is easy to get overwhelmed. 

Today, we’re talking about how to manage life when you find yourself in uncharted waters AND what lessons learned from previous crises can do for us in our current situation. 

We’re not here to tell you what is right and what is wrong. We’re here to talk about the facts and our own experiences. 

We haven’t seen everything … but we’ve seen a ton. We don’t know all the answers … but we have gotten pretty good at asking the right questions. 

One of our favorite sayings is, “Think and do is better than wait and see.” 

When there’s a crisis, the tendency is often to hunker down and wait to see what happens. But waiting and seeing has economic consequences. 

The big question now is …  what should we be thinking about?

Understanding what is happening in the market

Calmer heads always prevail. 

As real estate investors, we have a huge advantage. Markets like the stock market … or even the metals market … move instantly. That’s not true with the real estate market. 

If you look at what has happened in the stock market, with equity prices, and in bonds compared to what has happened in real estate … you’ll see a drastic difference. 

People who invest in stocks are seeing a market drop that appears already worse than the Great Depression. But your mortgage or your rent haven’t changed. 

That means that the person on the other end … the landlord or mortgage holder … their income hasn’t changed either. 

Now, that doesn’t mean it won’t. But the difference between now and 2008 is that in 2008, lenders were not ready to negotiate. They couldn’t see the ripple effect that would go through the financial system. 

But today, the Fed clearly sees it. Their reaction tells you they are bringing out the big guns early … and lenders are already beginning to contact people about ways to work things out. 

Even with all this intervention, there is still a chance that real estate investors will run into a cash flow problem … but the advantage is that real estate moves slower. You have more time to react now to future possibilities. 

Remember, the stock market doesn’t really reflect what’s going on in the economy. Stock prices are reacting to an anticipated slow down of corporate profits. 

There is plenty of cash out there. That’s not the problem. The problem is that it isn’t flowing. 

We’re basically watching an economic heart attack take place. It doesn’t matter what the blood volume is. The concern is that the blood isn’t flowing. 

So, you have to look at what is happening right now and make adjustments. Now isn’t the time to be a deer in the headlights investor. Now is the time to think and do. 

Making smart choices for your portfolio

We think that everybody listening in is going to want to own more real estate 10 years from now than they own today. 

Some of you may see opportunities … but you don’t have enough resources to take advantage. 

You can see bargains … quality assets going on sale. What do you do?

That’s why we are big proponents of syndication. 

We’re hearing on the street already that lenders are beginning to back off on their lending. If that is the case, it’s going to be a resurrection of private equity. 

When money goes looking for a safe haven after a nauseating ride on the Wall Street roller coaster … it often ends up in real estate. 

These investors are either on the equity side buying into real estate deals or on the debt side buying private mortgages and getting the yields. 

You have to be smart … but there is going to be a lot of money coming into real estate because of what’s happening. 

If you’re well-positioned and you underwrote your property correctly and you have a good lending partner, you’ll probably be ok. 

If you didn’t … well, there are going to be people who have to give up some real estate. 

If you’re in a good position, syndication can be a great way to get you ready to buy when those who need to sell make their move. 

And don’t forget that this doesn’t apply to just real estate. Real assets like metals and oil will have good deals, too. 

One of the biggest lessons we gleaned from 2008 is to keep your finger on the pulse of your markets and niches. 

Wherever you are in the world, whatever niche you’re in, whatever market you’re in … lean on your tribe. Enhance your participation in whatever forums or virtual meetups you have the opportunity to be part of. 

The closer you get to the front lines … the more real-time your information is … and the better you will be able to make decisions. 

For more lessons learned on investing during a crisis … listen in to the full episode!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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What the Coronavirus Means for Real Estate Investors

The COVID-19 pandemic and panic is well on its way to eclipsing the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Great Depression of 1929 as the most devastating economic event in modern human history. 

But humanity has a way of surviving even the greatest calamities … odds are we’ll survive this one too. 

So, we’re taking a look at the current crisis through the lens of things we’ve learned from the past. 

We’re discussing where future opportunities might be and ideas for what investors like YOU can do when facing uncertainty. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your keeping calm host, Robert Helms
  • His carrying on co-host, Russell Gray

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Economic issues and COVID-19

There’s so much going on in the world. COVID-19. The Fed lowering interest rates to zero. Social distancing. Sheltering in place. 

Today, we’re going to be discussing one of the biggest questions our listeners have been pelting us with … what does coronavirus mean for real estate investors?

Let’s start with this truth … it doesn’t matter what we think. All that matters at the end of the day is what you think. We’ll just share some food for thought. 

Remember, we don’t give advice. We give ideas and information. 

What we have is our own perspective … and that doesn’t mean we are right. Right now, some of our very good friends have polar opposite opinions and positions on this topic. 

But that’s why we can talk about it! We can all respectfully disagree and share ideas so you can make your own decisions. 

We’re going to focus mostly on the economic issues surrounding COVID-19. 

From an economic perspective, this situation is what we call a Black Swan … something nobody saw coming. 

The first thing we have to do is accept that we can’t do anything about the coronavirus. It is out of our control. But we can control how we respond. 

There can still be opportunity

The fact of the matter is that when certain parts of society go away … even temporarily … it has a lasting impact. Those things don’t come back quickly. 

It slows the velocity of the economy. Even the Fed can’t speed that up. All they can do is try to increase the volume and hope the volume compensates for the velocity. 

We saw a bunch of money run from the stock market … which tanked … and that has an impact on people, especially retirees. 

That money moved into bonds, which drove interest rates way down … which actually created a huge opportunity for real estate investors to lock in mortgages at record lows once the crisis abates. 

But the flip side is that the Fed is printing a lot of money. The government is going into debt … and that changes the already frail economic system. 

The flip side of chaos, of course, is opportunity. There’s always opportunity to help the situation, because making money is a byproduct of providing solutions in the marketplace. 

SWOT analysis, potential outcomes, and diversity 

With a situation like this, there are short-term, mid-term, and long-term effects. 

Short-term there is a demand shift for certain types of real estate. Most month-to-month tenants aren’t moving over the virus. 

In fact … big picture … those tenants are probably staying put, provided they have income. If they were thinking about making a move, they are probably staying put. 

Now is a good time to do a SWOT analysis … strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats … of your portfolio. 

Look at each individual property and ask yourself, “Where does the money come from? Where do the tenants work? What drives the local economy?”

Looking at the answers to these questions, you can make an educated prediction for what is going to happen in that sector in the future. 

You may even be able to make some moves now to reduce your risk or exposure … like refinancing debt, lowering costs, or tightening up expenses. 

Now, the challenge is that everybody is instinctively cutting back. That’s part of how we go into recession. 

If we cut way, way back and everybody withdraws … we’re going into depression. 

Then the question is, does the Fed and the government have enough firepower left to prevent that from happening … or are we about to go through a gigantic economic reset?

For those who have all their investment in stocks … it’s a scary time. The nice thing about real estate is that it’s stable. Stock investors might think it is boring, but it’s stable.

More of those investors are going to be looking to go into real estate … which means a huge opportunity for syndicators. 

If you’re thinking of making the move to real estate, you need to undertake that same SWOT analysis for the various real estate niches. 

And we can’t preach diversity enough. Diversity of income. Diversity of markets. Diversity of real estate niche. Diversity helps you weather the storm. 

Real estate for the long haul

At the end of the day, YOU are the only person who can decide what is best for you and your family. Do the work to get educated, analyze your deals, and do what you feel is right. 

The reality is that 10 years from now, this crisis is probably going to be in the history books. It’s going to be like 2008 … something that happened and changed the world quite a bit. 

But the long-term fact is that people will always be out there. They will need places to live. They will need places to gather. They’ll still need medical care and to eat. 

Real estate will always fulfill a potential need. In the long term, smart investments remain smart investments. 

Real estate is about buying and committing and being in for the long haul. 

For more on what the coronavirus means for real estate investors … listen to the full episode!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Old Capital Lending

Old Capital Lending

 

Your Multifamily Lending Experts. A Trusted Source to get Your Apartment Loans Funded 

What we like best about the Old Capital Lending team is that they do one main thing … and they do it REALLY well. 

That’s Commercial Loans on Multifamily Apartment Buildings! 

They’ve been the go-to provider for real estate investors looking for apartment loans for over 20 years … Have we mentioned they do this really, really well? 

You can tap into their extensive network of equity and lending sources …Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac agencies, life companies, conduits, wealthy individuals, family offices, institutional investors, and even hard money lenders. 

Their sources trust their underwriting practices and decades of experience … That means YOUR DEAL gets FUNDED. 

Syndicators can benefit from the Old Capital Lending team’s experience funding apartment projects for syndicators … helping you structure your “capital stack” just right. 

Their prudent advice and proactive transaction management drives investors to come back to them again and again for deal after deal. 

The Old Capital Lending team regularly contributes to our Secrets of Successful Syndication event! 

Simply fill out the form below to discuss your Apartment Loan questions with their expert team …

 


Reviews

Here’s what your fellow investors are saying …

“Once again Old Capital came through on their word and executed flawlessly. I always trust your professional opinion and feel confident when you’re on the deal. I would be glad to recommend you to any brokers or investors looking for a trustworthy debt source. Thanks again for your work, I am looking forward to the next one.”  – Michael W., Dallas, TX

“We want to thank you so much for getting this refinance done. Not only was it pretty quick, but painless to boot. If we need any assistance, you’ll be the first one we’ll call. Thank you again, for all the effort and energy that help make this finally happen.”  – Bill K., Santa Barbara, CA

“Old Capital was great to work with. They were able to help secure the financing needed for my first multi-family purchase and get started off on the right foot. It was a pleasure working with Old Capital on this transaction and they guided me through a smooth purchase.”  – Al M., Phoenix, AZ

Podcast: Crisis Investing Lessons – Navigating Unchartered Waters

While the COVID-19 virus crisis is unlike anything the world has seen in modern history, it’s certainly not the first … or last … crisis investors will face.

History says not only will the human race survive, but the backside of virtually all busts is a big boom.

Of course, we all need to survive both physically and financially until the crisis passes.

In this episode, we discuss how lessons learned in the 2008 crisis can be applied to today’s trial … and how investors can position themselves to not just survive, but thrive.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Investing in Indianapolis

Investing in Indianapolis

 

Discover what’s in store in “The Crossroads of America” … Indianapolis!

 

Deciding where to build your portfolio is extremely important.

Today, the US coastal markets are overpriced … and while many midwestern and southern markets are affordable … they don’t show the exciting promise of appreciation.

Indianapolis is unique. Its low cost of living, growing population, and location in the middle of every major trucking route in the country means BIG opportunities for savvy investors.

The team at High Return Real Estate has compiled the best of their Indy knowledge and made it available to investors like YOU.

Their assets are producing some of the highest returns in the real estate investing arena … with cash flow at three times the national average!

In this special report, learn:

✓ Projections for Indianapolis’ growing economy

✓ Which major employers and industries choose Indianapolis as their base

✓ What life is like in this bustling city

✓ Important Indy rental market stats

✓ And more!

Find out if Indianapolis is the right move for your next investment!

Simply fill out the form below to access Investing in Indianapolis …

 


Podcast: What the Coronavirus Means for Real Estate Investors

The COVID-19 pandemic and panic is well on its way to eclipsing the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Great Depression of 1929 as the most devastating economic event in modern human history.

Of course, humanity survived all those past calamities … and the odds are probably good that humanity will survive this one.

In this episode, we take a look at the current crisis through the lens of lessons learned from past crises and discuss where the future opportunities might be … along with ideas about what investors can do in the midst of uncertainty to position themselves to react quickly as the brave new investing landscape unfolds.

So tune in as we talk about what the Coronavirus means for real estate investors.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Unlock Next Level Success by Turbo-Charging Your Amazing Brain

The human brain is one of the most amazing things on the planet … but scientists say that we only use a small fraction of our brain’s potential. 

No matter how successful you are … that means your brain is capable of SO MUCH MORE. 

We’re talking to someone who tapped into the under-utilized power of the human mind to get better performance … and more success … from himself and his team. 

Listen in and discover how to take your real estate game to the next level by activating your amazing brain!

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your brainiac host, Robert Helms
  • His maniac co-host, Russell Gray
  • Author, speaker, and business growth expert, John Assaraf

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Your most important tool is your brain

What’s the most important tool for being successful in real estate investing? YOUR BRAIN. 

Today, we’re talking about how you can activate your brain and create fuel for your success. 

If you study success principles in any endeavor, you’re often going to be able to translate those directly into whatever you want to be successful in … including your real estate investing business. 

You definitely need to understand the specifics of real estate. But your team begins with you. 

If you have muddled thinking and don’t know exactly what you’re trying to accomplish, it will be hard for you to lead a team. 

You have to think about your mindset. How you think and what you believe affects what you do … or if you do anything at all. 

When people have results they don’t like, they say, “I’ll change my actions.” But it goes farther than that. It’s time to change the way you think. You have to be strategic and intentional. 

Our guest today has made a practice of studying this very thing. In fact, the reason we wanted to have him on the show is because he is an amazing real estate guy. 

John Assaraf has been investing for more than 30 years. He was one of the largest broker owners in the world, managing tons of agents and offices. 

But through his experience, he has figured out that it’s not just what you do … but why and how you train your brain.

The difference between success and mediocrity 

“When I was 26, I bought the franchising rights for RE/MAX of Indiana and proceeded to open up 85 offices,” John says. “So, I understand the residential, commercial, industrial side of real estate.”

John loves real estate … and that’s what led him on his search to figure out what holds people back and what makes people successful. 

When John was building RE/MAX of Indiana, he had 1,500 real estate agents. Some made $25K a year. Others made more than $1 million a year. 

“I was fascinated and wondered how it was possible that I’m giving the same training, the same coaching to all of my agents, and there is such different levels of success,” John says. 

By unlocking some of the mysteries of the mind, John was able to help his agents have an average income of $120K. 

What did he teach them?

“I really didn’t teach them much about selling real estate or investing in real estate. I taught them how the level of success that they would achieve would be directly a reflection of their beliefs, their self-image, and the habits they developed,” John says. 

John worked to help his agents augment their beliefs from limiting beliefs to empowering beliefs. 

There’s a saying in the neuropsychology field that says you will never outperform your hidden self-image. 

When you work on your self-esteem and self-worth, when you eliminate your limiting beliefs about what’s possible or not possible for you. 

When you start to recalibrate what you do to match the income or wealth that you want to achieve, then you have the inner game and the outer game aligned. 

So, the person who is making more money than you is not necessarily smarter than you. 

Until you train your brain to think differently and increase your self-worth, you wouldn’t act upon the information that they have in the same way. 

Training your brain

Our brain is a highly organized organism. Self-confidence is a neuro muscle. So is willpower. 

So, what would happen if we thought about some of our neuro muscles as things that we can strengthen or weaken, just like other muscles?

“If we disempower a network in our brain, it weakens. If we reinforce a new powerful network in our brain, like confidence or awareness, then we start a deliberate evolution of ourselves,” John says. 

John’s book, Innercise, is a user’s manual on how to use your brain better. “We have more control over our own brains than we ever thought possible,” John says. 

Too often, though, we take our brains for granted. 

So, we must start with awareness. Be aware of the thoughts you have. Are they empowering or are they destructive? Are they building blocks that will help you achieve your goals?

Then, think about emotions. 

Emotions are nothing more than the effect of what is happening in your subconscious mind. Emotions cause feelings, which can have a powerful enabling or disabling effect. 

After feelings comes behavior … the actions you take. 

John says, “When you look at your bank account and it doesn’t have the money you want, don’t get mad. Get curious.”

How can you shift your thinking? How can you shift your emotions? How can you change your behavior?

Changes on the outside happen because of changes on the inside first. 

For more on how to turbo-charge your amazing brain, listen in to the full episode!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Podcast: Unlock Next Level Success by Turbo-Charging Your Amazing Brain

Scientists say all people only use a small fraction of the brain’s potential. So no matter how successful you are, your brain is capable of much more.

In this episode, we visit with a mega-successful real estate guy who discovered how to get better performance from himself and his team by tapping into the under-utilized power of the human mind.

So listen in and discover you can take your success to the next level by better activating your amazing brain.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

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