The housing market is finally getting unglued: less than a week after Case Shiller (which reports home prices with a substantiakl laga) reported the first negative monthly change in home prices…
Analysts expected Case-Shiller Home Price growth to continue its modest deceleration in August (the latest available data in this heavily lagged and smoothed data set), but the result was a doozy: the 20-City Composite index tumbled 0.44% MoM, far below the 0.20% expected increase, and a sharp decline from the downward revised 0.19% increase in July; more importantly, this was the first sequential drop in home prices tracked by Case-Shiller since March 2012, or ten and a half years.
The pandemic housing boom hit a peak and should start rolling over as rising inventory forces some home sellers to slash prices. The weight of soaring mortgage rates and increasing inventory are the possible markings of a top that has already led some sellers in major US cities to cut listing prices.
With home sales weakening across the nation (while mean home prices are surging relative to median, signaling higher-end homes dominating the sales) and homebuilder sentiment slumping, this morning’s Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P CoreLogic CS) home price index data unexpectedly accelerated even higher.