With home sales weakening across the nation (while mean home prices are surging relative to median, signaling higher-end homes dominating the sales) and homebuilder sentiment slumping, this morning’s Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P CoreLogic CS) home price index data unexpectedly accelerated even higher.
The latest data is from April and shows the 20-City Composite surging 1.77% MoM (less than the 1.90% expected) BUT surging by a record 21.23% YoY (more than the +21.05% expected).
“April 2022 showed initial (although inconsistent) signs of a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
“Despite the deceleration of the National Composite and the modest acceleration for the 10- and 20-City Composites, these growth rates are extremely strong by historical standards – at or above the 99th percentile in all three cases.”
BUT… as a reminder, the Case-Shiller data is lagged and smoothed, so things likely got a lot more ‘complicated’ since this April data as mortgage rates spiked and mortgage applications collapsed…
Tampa, Miami, Phoenix reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed
“In contrast with the past five months, when prices in most cities accelerated, in April only nine cities saw prices rise faster than they had done in March,” he said.
“There’s a regional pattern among the nine, as all five cities in our South composite (Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Miami, and Tampa) are represented there.”
Maybe it is time for Mr.Powell to get back to work after all. This is not the less-flation he is hoping for.