The root of the real crisis is being exposed …

It’s no secret we’re a couple of older dudes who got creamed in 2008. But like the economy, we bounced back. Unlike the financial system, we got the lessons.

Read that again and think about it.

If you got on board the real estate gravy train after the last crisis, congratulations … and welcome to your first crash. It’s looking to be a whopper.

For those who went through 2008 like we did, welcome back! We’re about to take a wild ride … and it should be a THRILLER.

The big message is: this is NOT the time to take a wait and see approach to portfolio and opportunity management. Things are moving too fast.

Investing intelligence is a blend of emotional control technical knowledge, and intellectual discipline.

Stress in the real world is where you test your skills. And yes, it’s a little unnerving.

Anytime the stakes are high and you’re pressed to edge of your confidence, it’s tempting to hide, deny, procrastinate, or complain about things you can’t control … to the detriment of diligently working on the things, you can control.

So rather than dive into the weeds of the plethora of clues in the news … they’ll always be there … we think it’s a good time to do some diagnosis.

After, all prescription without diagnosis is malpractice. You can’t know what to work on if you don’t understand the root of the problem.

In this case, we think there are two primary roots of the current crisis … one you can control, and one you can’t.

Let’s start with the root cause of the current crisis that you can NOT control.

It may or may not be interesting to you … and you might not agree with the premise … but be patient and work through it.

It’s arguably the most obvious yet misunderstood contributor to the malaise the coronavirus crisis is exposing.

In one word … debt.

Absurd, insane, unfathomable and unsustainable levels of debt … which has spread like a cancer throughout the global financial system.

The current metastasization started in 1913 with the founding of the Federal Reserve system, which gave bankers and politicians the ability to create unlimited amounts of debt.

The Federal Reserve Act and the 16th Amendment also created the income tax and the IRS, effectively equipping the government to use the productivity of the people to make the debt payments on all that debt.

Armed with this powerful new temptation, it took less than two decades to blow up a bubble known as the Roaring Twenties.

The expansion of credit led to mass consumerism, a stock market boom, and the nation’s “wealth” (based on inflated asset values) to double from 1920 to 1929.

Of course, the party ended in spectacular fashion leading to the Great Depression.

Sound familiar?

When debt bubbles implode, asset prices collapse … and the FIRST place this symptom manifests is in the stock market.

The Great Depression led to an unprecedented consolidation of power when President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared a “war on poverty” and gave America “The New Deal”.

So before there was World War II, FDR was already a wartime president.

Wait, we’re having deja vu.

FDR’s New Deal included Social Security, a proliferation of agencies and regulations, and the effective confiscation of the citizens’ gold.

FDR’s initial phase-out of the gold standard allowed the Fed to print virtually unlimited amounts of dollars.

In fact, the Chairman of the New York Fed admitted in a 1946 speech that there was no need for taxes to pay for anything because the Fed could print unlimited amounts of dollars.

He confessed the only reason for taxes was to “express public policy in the distribution of wealth and income” and in “subsidizing or in penalizing various industries and public groups”.

In other words, taxes allow the government to pick winners and losers in what is supposed to be a “free” market.

Wait, we’re having deja vu again.

Events like the Civil War, the Panic of 1907, the Great Depression, and 9/11 … demonstrate how crises always result in bigger, more powerful government and less personal freedom.

We’ll leave it up to you to decide if big government and less freedom is good or bad, but the facts are indisputable.

After 1933, it was illegal for Americans to own gold, while foreign holders of U.S. dollars and bonds could redeem dollars and U.S. bonds for physical gold.

But when the world realized the Fed was printing WAY more dollars than there was gold, it became obvious that the “official” gold price of $35 was too low.

So the world, led by French President Charles de Gaulle, started showing up at the U.S. “gold window” to redeem paper dollars for real gold.

By 1971, the U.S. gold reserves had dropped from 20,000 tons to less than 9,000 tons with no end in sight to the hemorrhaging …

… so President Nixon abruptly “closed the gold window” … effectively defaulting.

Of course, Nixon knew the dollar would collapse causing inflation.

So in an attempt to preempt inflation, Nixon also made it illegal for private businesses to raise prices or pay higher wages.

Yes, history buffs, in the “land of the free”, the government, unilaterally and without warning, mandated price and wage restrictions to private businesses … to “protect” everyone.

Of course, price controls didn’t last because they don’t work. More recently Venezuela tried it, and it didn’t work there either.

The Venezuela government said stores couldn’t raise the price of things like toilet paper. So when you showed up at the store, there wasn’t any.

To find toilet paper in Venezuela, you had to buy it on the street … and it cost a lot more than the official price.

Wait … we’re having deja vu again … again. That’s so weird.

So back to the dollar collapse after Nixon’s default …

In just a few years, gold went from $35 per ounce to $800 per ounce. Or more accurately, the value of the dollar crashed against gold.

Dollar holders smart enough to redeem their paper dollars for gold early did well. Those who didn’t, not so much.

By now, you may be recognizing some eerie parallels between the past and present. History doesn’t always repeat itself but often rhymes. That’s why we study it.

The point is these events kicked off an entire 49-year history … from 1971 to 2020 … of unhindered, exponential, and unsustainable expansion of debt.

If 49 years rings a bell for you, go look up the biblical concept of jubilee. It’s weird how all this is unraveling after 49 years. Probably just a coincidence.

(For more perspective on how the past helps predict the future, consider investing in our Future of Money and Wealth programYou’ll probably wish you bought it two years ago, but better late than never.)

Of course, YOU can’t stop Uncle Sam from spending trillions of dollars …

… or the Fed from printing trillions to fund government spending, push down interest rates, buy up toxic assets, and pump up asset values.

They’ve already begun doing all those things. The big question is whether the dollar can carry the load. It survived the 70s … mostly.

Time will tell what happens this time.

For now, it’s important to realize what the Fed is doing … and what history says is likely to happen when they do. Being confused or afraid isn’t a wise option … it only feels safer.

It’s like standing at the beach watching the distant tsunami coming toward you … it seems slow at first … then it’s on you. It can be hard to believe and scary.

But turning around so you can’t see it won’t make it go away.

So today, the COVID-19 coronavirus has stopped the economic heartbeat of the globe. Cash is not flowing, which means debt service is going to become a real problem real fast.

Remember, back in 2008, it only took a relatively few sub-prime mortgage borrowers to miss payments … and the financial system nearly collapsed.

The current debt crisis is probably going to be a LOT bigger. It could easily be The Real Crash Peter Schiff has vociferously warned about.

Of course, if the world had less debt and more savings, we could all shelter in place for a few months and everything wouldn’t unravel.

But the world is awash in debt, has little savings, and without productivity to service all the debt, a chain reaction of defaults seems virtually certain.

The government, the Fed, and the banks all appear to realize the gravity of the situation … and unlike 2008, they’re sprinting to get in front of it.

It really all comes down to the Fed and the dollar. The Fed is willing to print as many as needed to buy up everything and send everyone money.

It seems like either the debt will go bad (deflation) or the dollar will (inflation) … or both. And it’s all out of your control.

So what’s a real estate investor to do?

We’ll take that up in Part Two. Stay tuned …

Investing in Indianapolis

Investing in Indianapolis

 

Discover what’s in store in “The Crossroads of America” … Indianapolis!

 

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Indianapolis is unique. Its low cost of living, growing population, and location in the middle of every major trucking route in the country means BIG opportunities for savvy investors.

The team at High Return Real Estate has compiled the best of their Indy knowledge and made it available to investors like YOU.

Their assets are producing some of the highest returns in the real estate investing arena … with cash flow at three times the national average!

In this special report, learn:

✓ Projections for Indianapolis’ growing economy

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Welcome to uncharted territory …

Even for a couple of old dudes, we’ve never seen anything like what’s happening now.

And we’re not just talking about the COVID-19 pandemic, though it’s proving to be the proverbial “black swan” financial pundits have been watching for.

Preppers (financial and otherwise) are feeling slightly vindicated, while mockers perhaps a little foolish. Peter Schiff is suddenly getting popular again.

Meanwhile, folks who were asleep at the wheel are snapping awake to find they’re on a collision course with a financial crash … and they’re not buckled up.

Of course, there’s the news … and the news underneath the news that the clues in the news help us find.

With all the chatter right now, it’s a little scary.

It’s important to stay calm, think clearly, and engage in quality conversations with experienced, informed, and diligent investors.

That’s what we’re doing … and because our ability to travel and attend conferences is currently curtailed, we’re using alternatives.

It’s more important now than ever to get and stay connected.

Our mission this muse is to point out some things we think are very important for investors and entrepreneurs to consider as we all sail into stormy uncharted waters together.

First of all, we’re thankful to live in a world where news and perspectives are readily available.

Access to information and ideas helps each of us find our tribe and feel connected … even in the midst of isolation and potential quarantine.

Thank you for being a part of our tribe.

In a world full of fear, uncertainty, and doubt, there’s likely to be some emotional conflicts about what’s right, who’s right, what should be done.

The truth is … nobody really knows.

So here are a couple of principles we mutter to ourselves in those times we get upset or stressed out …

“There are three sides to a coin. Head, tails, and the edge. The only way to see both sides of any issue is to stand on the edge.” 
– Robert Kiyosaki

“When emotions run high, intelligence runs low.” 
– Blair Singer

In times like these, we think you’ll find those principles useful.

While we’re on the topic of helpful principles gleaned from the minds of smart people …

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” 
– Warren Buffet

Most of the world is hunkering down. When you don’t know what to think or do, it’s easy to sit out and hope … or to follow the herd.

We’re not fans of either approach. Just like a physical disaster requires brave first responders, so do financial and economic disasters.

We’re not saying this is a disaster … yet. But it’s not fear-mongering paranoia to suggest it could turn into one pretty quickly.

Better to be prepared and not have a crisis, than have a crisis and not be prepared.

Of course, bad times aren’t the end of the world. They’re just part of the cycle of life.

Our friend and history buff Simon Black often reminds us that over centuries, through wars, pandemics, oppression, and natural disasters … somehow, someway, humans rise to the occasion.

We come together, we figure it out, and we go on to build a better world.

Sure, there are a lot of rocks, potholes, and pitfalls on the road to recovery. But as a little orphan once said …

“The sun’ll come out … tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow … there’ll be sun.”
– Annie

With all that said, we’re going to take a quick tour through the HUGE amount of clues in the news. If you’re new to all this, it might seem confusing or irrelevant.

That’s what we used to think before 2008.

Then after getting smacked down, we realized the warning lights were flashing the entire time. We just didn’t know what they meant.

So don’t get bored, irritated, or discouraged. Just dig in and keep studying … especially if you’re in the camp of people caught flat-footed by the recent turn of events.

The stock market is tanking. Everyone can see it. It’s what most people talk about.

But contrary to popular tweets, the stock market isn’t a proxy for the economy … or the financial system.

The news is warning us the financial system is in deep distress …

The Fed’s hair is ON FIRE. Back to back emergency rate cuts.

And they’re putting ONE TRILLION DOLLARS PER DAY into the repo market … which was flashing trouble way long before COVID-19 showed up.

The Fed also cut rates to ZERO and pledged to buy up $700 billion in Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The last time they did that was the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed also dropped bank reserve requirements to ZERO. So your bank doesn’t need to have a single penny in reserve to back up your deposits.

Meanwhile, the Federal government (which is different from the Federal Reserve) is planning a $1 trillion fiscal stimulus (spending) plan to help boost the economy.

But the Federal government doesn’t have a trillion dollars. Apple probably still has more cash than Uncle Sam.

And because there’s already a huge cash crunch, the Federal Reserve will need to print all those dollars … and buy Uncle Sam’s bonds, so Uncle Sam can spend.

But how do you boost an economy that’s shut down? You can’t step on the gas of a parked car and expect it to go fast.

Worse, many businesses and jobs may not survive an extended shut down … or even a substantial slow down.

For example, the oil industry was almost the sole job creation vehicle for the U.S. coming out of 2008. To get there, the shale industry took on TONS of debt.

You could argue whether the debt made sense at $60 a barrel.

But at less than $30, many oil companies will go bankrupt. Until and when they do, lots of jobs will be lost.

Perhaps, it’s obvious that job losses make it hard for tenants to pay rent … which will eventually make life hard for landlords.

So although real estate is insulated from the price declines Wall Street is facing, it’s not immune. And some of these “cures” could be worse than the disease.

But we’re not saying the Fed or Uncle Sam should or shouldn’t be doing what they’re doing. It doesn’t matter what we or anyone thinks SHOULD happen.

This isn’t a policy discussion. It’s a REALITY discussion because it’s happening.

But if the Fed blows up its balance sheet to ten trillion or more, what happens to the dollar? Over-printed currencies fail. The dollar isn’t immune.

And if production is shut down because no one’s going to work, what happens to production? Are empty shelves the exception … or the rule?

Lots of cash and empty shelves in Venezuela. Yikes.

There’s more bad news, but we know you can only handle so much.

So take a deep breath …. exhale slowly … ahhhhh …..

The world isn’t ending. It’s changing. The pace of change just accelerated, which means you need to process and react faster.

It’s not too late to look at your portfolio, sources of income, strategic direction … and do a SWOT analysis … Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats.

They’re all present … if YOU are.

People, businesses, and money will all migrate in search of safety.

So certain markets, asset classes, investment vehicles, and structures will lose.

Some will win.

Your mission is to look at the landscape of the changing reality and make good decisions about where YOU go from here. Get in a position to thrive.

We’ll be talking about this a LOT in the weeks and months ahead. Stay tuned!

Is this a cure for coronavirus?

There are SO many things happening in the financial news and markets right now, it’s hard to focus on any one thing and say it’s the biggest story.

Obviously, the coronavirus panic is dominating headlines and airwaves everywhere.

And many of the other major stories such as stocks, bonds, interest rates, and oil prices all seem to be considered somehow a derivative of the coronavirus.

Of course, we just keep asking … what does all of this mean to real estate investors?

Two weeks ago, we posited interest rates would fall as investors piled into U.S Treasuries for both safety and speculation.

Of course, we were right … but not because we’re brilliant, but because it was SO obvious.  As Treasury yields collapsed, mortgage rates followed.

And because you never know how long these “sales” on cheap money are going to last, it’s a good idea to watch for clues … and then move quickly when opportunity presents itself.

The odds are the coronavirus scare will last months … but your uber-cheap mortgage can last for decades. Nice.

Last week, we dug a little deeper into the WHY behind collapsing rates after the Fed came out with an “emergency” rate cut.

Though billed as a preemptive strike to stop recession, most pundits viewed it as a lightly veiled attempt to calm traders and boost stock prices.

How’s that working out so far?

Of course, WAY before coronavirus, we’ve been pointing out …

… the financial system is fragile,

… the Fed’s intervention in the repo market is a potentially ominous sign,

… and gold could be flashing a “bridge is out” warning even as the U.S. economy is hurtling down the highway at a decent clip.

In other words, the coronavirus might not be a cause, just a catalyst.

Which brings us to the theme of today’s muse …

Insulation matters. And when the climate is extreme, people who don’t have it, want it.

Right now, MANY people are discovering their portfolios are naked and exposed to the extreme hots and colds of publicly traded financial markets.

Equity investors are experiencing nauseating drops and dizzying bounces … all within an overall trend which is flirting with becoming the mother of all bears.

Income investors are watching yields collapse 30-50% from already anemic levels. Savers and income investors were already suffering. Now it’s torturous.

When yields aren’t enough to live on, you have no choice but to consume equity.

And it’s hard to ride the equity roller coaster back up if you to get off at the bottom to eat.

It’s like a starving farmer who eats his seed corn has nothing to plant for food in the future. He eats now but is doomed in the long term. Equity consumption is suicidal.

So while the coronavirus might threaten your physical health, the vast majority of people who catch it will survive and go on to thrive.

But the effects of the panic on fragile financial markets are definitely making paper asset investors’ portfolios sick … and recovery could take a LOT longer.

Of course, most real estate investors are doing what they often do when these things happen … much popcorn, watch the fireworks, and cash rent checks.

Sure, if the storm is bad enough, it can blow your insulated, brick real estate portfolio over too.

But compared to the poor folks living in straw portfolios built only for sunshine, real estate looks pretty darn secure.

So it’s no surprise, that even the mainstream financial media are pointing out the safety features of real estate … at least what they think is real estate …

Don’t Panic – Buy REITs
Forbes, 3/9/20

These are the safest and highest dividend-yielding REITs as the coronavirus spreads, BofA says
– MarketWatch, 3/7/20

REITs And Bonds Rose Last Weeks As Global Stocks Fell
Seeking Alpha, 3/10/20

Of course, REITs are still publicly traded stocks … essentially a mutual fund collection of individual properties all put into one fund and offered in the Wall Street casinos.

So, while real estate is attractive in times like these, REITs are still subject to Wall Street volatility …

REITs fall in February amid broader market sell-off
Institutional Real Estate, 3/10/20

Perhaps obviously, the further you are away from Wall Street, the more insulated you are from insane volatility.

Of course, as a real estate investor, YOU already know this. That’s why you read commentaries like this, and probably don’t have much exposure to Wall Street.

But remember there are MANY MILLIONS of people who haven’t discovered real estate investing … yet. Or only think of it as Flip This House.

Of course, true real estate investing is about using low cost, long-term debt to acquire passive income and generous tax breaks …

… and enjoying superior cash-on-cash yields (compared to bonds), while benefiting from long term inflation … insulated from short term deflation.

Real estate is slow, boring, and STABLE. And right now, stable is sexy.

As we’ve said before, you’re not seeing headlines announcing rents have collapsed 50% in the last 90 days because of coronavirus. That’s short-term deflation.

And ten years from now, when this current panic and its ramifications have joined all the other freak-outs of the last 100 years in the dust bin of history … do you think it’s more likely rents and real estate values will be up … or down?

History says “up” in dollar terms … because the dollar has a 100+ year history of losing value against REAL assets.

And most of what’s going on right now … more printing, more debt, more deficits … is BAD for the dollar in the long term.

Sure, most people can’t escape the temptation to gamble. “Buy low, sell high” brainwashing makes it nearly impossible to resist Wall Street volatility.

But SOME people … especially more seasoned folks … will decide the Wall Street roller coaster is more nauseating than intoxicating … and they’ll want off.

So while we’re concerned about the coronavirus panic and its near term effects on the economy and the financial system …

…. we’re SUPER EXCITED about the lessons being learned by Main Street Americans.

Because when more of Main Street gets back to real investing … in real assets and cash flow …

… it could create a big flow of funds out of Wall Street into Main Street … where the real wealth comes from and belongs.

Last time we looked, there’s usually BIG opportunity when money starts moving. The key is to put yourself in a good position to help facilitate it.

So whether you choose to borrow lots of money flowing into bonds and acquire properties in your own account …

… or you decide to start a syndication business to raise private equity to pair with abundant and cheap debt …

… this isn’t a time to be hiding under your sheets with a bottle of hand sanitizer.

Yes, be careful and stay healthy.

But keep your eye on the long-term big picture. It’s easy to get lost in the hype and miss big opportunities that grow out of the chaos.

Fed drops a BOMB … but will it work?

You probably heard the Fed just dropped their interest rate target 50 basis points … which is economic geek speak for half a percent.

If you’re a devoted market observer, you’ve probably seen a dozen reports with as many interpretations about why they did it and what it means to everyone … except YOU.

That’s because mainstream financial media doesn’t talk to real estate investors. In fact, they barely acknowledge we exist …

… and they surely have NO idea how we think or what we really do.

They just look at investing through their “buy low, sell high” paradigm …

… and are therefore understandably obsessed with trying to divine which direction the next bloviation from the Eccles building will send the paper trading lemmings scurrying.

To Wall Street, “investing” is sprinting in and out of positions faster than the crowd. Miss a step and you get trampled.

And MOST of what they think and say means NOTHING to Main Street real estate investors.

Meanwhile, issues critical to real estate investors (and syndicators) go completely ignored … leaving you to read between the lines for clues in the news.

Not to worry! Your friendly neighborhood compulsive-obsessive newshounds here at The Real Estate Guys™ radio show are here to fill the gap.

So … what’s a real estate investor to think … and do … in the wake of this latest extraordinary tactic by a clearly concerned Federal Reserve?

Let’s break the topic into bite size pieces …

First, the CONTEXT …

This is the Fed’s first “emergency” action …

(at least in terms of a big, unscheduled rate cut … pay no attention to the billions in “not QE” printed to plug the ongoing problems in the repo market)

… since October 2008.

Hmmm … that date seems oddly familiar … didn’t something big happen back then?

And if the economy is really as strong as everyone claims, WHY is this “shock and awe” unscheduled cut needed?

We’re being told this is in response to the Coronavirus threat to the economy. Some say the Fed’s move validates the fears of a global pandemic.

Weird. Weren’t all the recent press conferences designed to calm such fears?

But there’s a MUCH bigger question to consider …

If the threat of a pandemic has closed factories and broken supply chains, how does printing more money fix that?

Hint: It doesn’t. But it does create some other side effects investors … real estate and otherwise … probably want to pay attention to (more on that in a moment).

We think there are a couple of issues at play …

First, as we’ve been saying for the last few years, there’s an important difference between economic activity (the speed of the vehicle) and the financial system it runs on (the vehicle itself).

If your car is zipping down the road to riches at 75 miles per hour, you’re feeling like you’re making great progress.

But if you don’t notice the oil pressure dropping and engine temperature rising, you won’t know the vehicle is breaking down … and your trip is in jeopardy.

Make sense?

Gold, oil, the dollar, and interest rates are all important gauges on the financial system dashboard …

… right alongside the speedometer and tachometers of employment and GDP, which measure the speed of the economy.

We think there’s a possibility the Fed is injecting liquidity trying to lubricate an engine that’s on the brink of breaking down.

Remember, the repo market crisis all happened BEFORE the coronavirus showed up.

The second major issue helping put the Fed’s latest move in context is a variation on the same theme … interest rates.

But not the “let’s lower interest rates to stimulate this already red-hot economy” use of interest rates.

More like the “let’s put a bid on bonds to prop up fragile credit markets” kind of interest rates … the “black hole event horizon” kind (which is a much bigger discussion we’ve had before).

For today’s discussion, here’s what you need to know …

The Fed doesn’t “set” interest rates. They simply set a target at which to aim their “open market operations”.

This is a confusing way of saying the Fed will buy or sell bonds in the open market in order to manipulate interest rates up or down.

When the Fed sells, it adds to supply, driving bond prices down and interest rates up. That’s clearly NOT the plan right now.

So the flip side is the Fed plans to BUY bonds, bidding UP the prices, and driving interest rates DOWN.

Here’s the important point …

Bond traders KNOW this. And they also know the Fed will pay ANY price to make it happen.

Rising interest rates would be like SAND (or worse) in the financial system’s engine … triggering a wave of defaults, margin calls, and a liquidity crisis of biblical proportions. It would make 2008 look like a bad hair day.

So what do bond traders do? (And yes, you should care …)

Bond traders FRONT-RUN the Fed and PILE into Treasuries, bidding them up, driving interest rates DOWN … to ALL-TIME lows.

Yes, we realize many headlines claim “scared” investors are fleeing the “dangers” of the stock market to the “safety” of bonds.

Maybe … but we think not.

Our guess is it’s not fear, but greed driving the flurry of Treasury bond buying.

Meanwhile, let’s now quickly consider the potential ramifications for Main Street real estate investors 

The most obvious is what we discussed last time … low interest rates create a big opportunity to restructure debt and acquire new cheap debt.

We also think TRUE safety-seekers will start migrating into real assets … like precious metalsoil, and real estate.

Of course, we’ve been talking about this for years. But these macro trends roll out slowly, so we’re pretty sure there’s a lot of room to get on the long-term trend train.

And while we could (and probably should) discuss what the rise of precious metals and oil say about the dollar, we’ll probably save all that for the Summit … when he have all big brains with us.

The more germane discussion for real estate investors is the effect of low interest rates on income producing real estate.

Three words: Shrinking. Cap. Rates.

As Treasury yields fall, they pull down the yields on ALL investments, including rental properties.

Of course, as any seasoned real estate investor knows, falling cap rates mean RISING prices … and EQUITY for those who acquire real estate at the front end of the cycle.

As insane as it seems, this move by the Fed suggests the bull market in cash-flowing real estate might actually be getting a booster shot.

But BE CAREFUL … because it’s easy to get sloppy with underwriting and market selection when things get hotter and even more competitive.

Always remember, unlike stocks and bonds, people still need real jobs to make income properties perform. It’s hard for unemployed tenants to pay rent.

While admitting we’re far from experts on the matter, our guess is the coronavirus crisis will come and go like the many others before it.

So the real lasting impact may not be (hopefully) loss of large numbers of human lives … or even major disruptions to America’s economy or individual lifestyle and freedoms.

But it may wake America up to the vulnerability created by an over-dependence on Chinese manufacturing …

… and a renewed enthusiasm to bring more manufacturing back to the United States.

These are the kind of durable jobs with the potential to drive a sustainable surge in demand for real estate of all kinds.

Smart investors will be watching to see if and where these jobs end up … and will jump in to ride the wave as those markets revitalize.

Yes, these are troubling times. But they’re also full of lessons and opportunities.

The odds are good that the world will not just survive, but thrive, despite the consistent parade of threats and temporary turmoil.

Real estate investing is a long-term game played best by watching the long-term trends … and letting real estate do for you what it does best …

… providing investors with a way to profit from the long-term decline of the dollar while staying mostly insulated from the wild volatility of the Wall Street casinos.

Coronavirus could be coming to Main Street …

By now you’ve probably heard about the coronavirus. It’s big news and appears to be getting bigger … and there are MANY angles on the story.

Of course, we’re just The Real Estate Guys™ … not the virus guys … so we’re not qualified to have an opinion on the health risks or odds of a global pandemic.

But whether the coronavirus is truly an existential threat to all humanity … or just another run-of-the-mill frightening event that fades into obscurity …

… it’s certainly creating some economic upheavals all investors (even real estate investors) should be paying attention to.

And as long as we all survive long-term, the coronavirus crisis is raising notable concerns and creating short-term opportunities.

To be clear, we’re not making light of it … or suggesting that economic consequences are the most important aspect of the coronavirus story.

But since we don’t have the expertise or ability to change what’s happening or to advise on how to avoid the health risks … we’ll just focus on the investing considerations.

It’s safe to say the coronavirus could be the proverbial “Black Swan financial pundits constantly obsess about.

No one saw it coming, and then … BOOM! It’s here. And it’s already having a profound effect on stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Of course, the big question is … what does the coronavirus mean to real estate investors?

In the short term, it creates an opportunity …

As freaked out paper asset investors jump into safe havens, lots are ending up in U.S. Treasuries.

This is bidding bond prices UP, driving bond yields DOWN …meaning interest rates are falling.

This pulls mortgage rates down and provides real estate investors with an opportunity to restructure existing debt and take on new debt

… and lock in those low rates for the long term.

Meanwhile, some safety seekers are piling into gold … and we think there’s two parts to that story … maybe three.

First, gold is the ultimate safe haven because there’s no counter-party risk (assuming you take physical possession) and you avoid specific currency risk.

In other words, you can store wealth in gold, and later convert it into ANY currency … not just the one you bought it with.

American brains often tilt here … because they only think in dollar terms. But the rest of the world doesn’t.

Sure, the U.S. dollar is still considered the “safest” currency … but as we explain in our Future of Money and Wealth video, “The Dollar Under Attack” … there are reasons to be careful of the dollar long term.

And enough investors in the world appear to agree … and they’re bidding up the price of gold in their flight to safety. That says something about the dollar.

But the BIG coronavirus story isn’t falling interest rates, spiking gold prices, or crashing stock markets …

As is often the case, investors and mainstream financial media pundits fixate (and trade) the symptoms … sometimes missing the real problem.

There’s a YUGE difference between a booming economy and a strong financial system.

During this U.S. election cycle, you’re likely to hear about the “booming economy” … and it’s true.

But even more importantly, it’s NECESSARY … and that’s the concern.

A global economic slowdown isn’t just inconvenient … it’s systemically dangerous on an epic scale.

This is what our big-brained friends help us understand and navigate.

The world is piled nose-high in debt … most of it at very low interest rates. And yet, it’s barely being serviced.

There are many tapped out “zombie” businesses who don’t even earn enough profit to pay their interest … which means their debt is a slow-growing cancer.

A spike in interest rates or a decrease in prices or economic velocity accelerates their demise … but that’s just the beginning.

Besides the obvious ripple effect of job losses through communities and supply chains … some of which would affect Main Street real estate investors …

… the potentially bigger problem is the ripple effect through financial system balance sheets which are holding bonds as ASSETS … assets they’ve borrowed against.

This is EXACTLY what happened in 2008 with sub-prime mortgage bonds.

It wasn’t the direct losses from a relatively small number of sub-prime defaults that imploded the system. It was the contagion because those modest losses were magnified by leverage.

But unlike real estate, when the collateral (the sub-prime bonds) declined in value …

… Wall Street loans come with cash calls when the “margin” between loan and collateral value shrinks too much.

Margin calls exploded throughout the system … forcing everyone to sell everything to raise cash. This crashed prices, triggering more margin calls …

… creating a vicious downward cycle until the bottom fell out.

So the Fed (and other central banks) stepped in with MASSIVE amounts of “quantitative easing” to put in a bottom and stop the free fall.

They printed trillions and bought the “toxic assets” no one else wanted. And as we now know, they’ve been unable to withdraw the patch.

After 10 years, the Fed tried to “shrink their balance sheet” and “normalize interest rates” (i.e., stop propping things up) …

… and they failed miserably on both counts. In fact, they recently had to take emergency action to blow it all back up.

So there’s a LOT of air in the financial system right now … all propped up by record levels of debt … which can only be serviced by a “booming economy”.

And that booming economy keeps the frailty of the system off many commentators’ radar … while “alarmists” like Robert Kiyosaki and Peter Schiff don’t get much media time to warn people.

That’s the way it was in 2008 … and that’s the way it is now.

The setup is the same as 2008 … just bigger. WAY bigger. And it’s all rooted in gobs of global debt …

China has taken on enormous debt to fund its phenomenal growth the over last two decades.

The coronavirus could push China into even greater debt … not to grow … but just to prop things up as their economy slows.

Corporations took on records levels of debt to fund stock buybacks over the last decade. Of course, this helped boost stock prices, but is it reliable wealth?

Households are also carrying record levels of debt … probably feeling rich because of high home and stock equity on their balance sheets.

Sure, inflated assets can make people feel rich … boosting consumer confidence … but how stable is it?

Equity is awesome … but it’s fickle. The coronavirus is writing a reality check for stock investors right now.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus is shutting down factories … even entire cities … which MASSIVELY slows economic activity … with global ramifications.

It’s like if you had a gigantic credit card with triple your annual incomes in consumer debt …

… but are barely able to make the payments working 60- or 80-hour weeks … and then your hours are cut.

Now instead of just getting by … you’re being swallowed by the debt.

Except it’s not just you … or a single corporation … or a few thousand sub-prime homeowners … or even a tiny country with a small global economic footprint.

It’s the ENTIRE globe … and it’s emanating from the second largest economy on the planet.

It’s hard for China to be the manufacturing engine of the world with closed factories and entire cities quarantined.

That means they use less energy, buy less commodities, export less products … which means shippers have less to ship, retailers have less to sell, and on and on.

ALL those businesses and employees in the chain … many of which are loaded with debt … take a big pay cut … putting all that debt in danger of default.

To “save” it all, central banks will need to print like crazy … and gold prices tell us smart investors are concerned about that.

Gold is at record highs against EVERY currency in the world … except the U.S. dollar (yet).

Ironically, the financial contagion has the potential to spread FAR faster than the coronavirus itself.

YIKES.

Okay, take a deep breath. It’s not Armageddon.

But as you might guess, a scary place to be is in investments that are front-line to fragile financial markets.

That’s probably why alert investors are exiting into safer havens.

Well-structured real estate investors are likely to fare better than most paper asset investors … because real estate’s fundamental model is far more stable.

Think about it …

Do you see any headlines that say, “Rents are crashing as coronavirus spreads” or “Tenants break leases to escape coronavirus”?

We don’t.

So while paper asset investors are watching their 401k wealth go up and down like a roller coaster …

… real estate investors are quietly endorsing rent checks.

But it’s not just the cash flow of real estate that makes real estate stable …

It’s the priority in people’s lives to make those rent payments … and the ownership of a physical, tangible asset that doesn’t disappear in crisis.

Yes, if the coronavirus destroys humanity, demand for rental property will implode. But that will be the least of your worries.

And if the financial system implodes … as bad as that sounds … it will be bumpy for awhile … but a new system will be put in place.

So as long as you’re structured to weather the storm 

… with competitive rents and great customer service in markets with solid infrastructure and fundamentals …

… and stable underlying financing with enough cash flow cushion to absorb temporary softness 

… you might not get richer on your current holdings, but you can probably ride out the storm.

Of course, if you’re properly prepared, you’ll be in position to go bargain shopping in such a storm … which is exactly what Ken McElroy did in 2009-2012.

The world is volatile. Real estate is relatively stable compared to most other investments. But you still need to see the big picture and think ahead.

That’s why we hang out with people like Robert Kiyosaki, Peter Schiff, Ken McElroy, Brien Lundin, and other super-smart people.

After all, it only takes one good idea or heads up to make or save you a LOT of money when things get crazy. And you never know what that’s going to happen.

Until next time … good investing!

 

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The pension problem is about to get REAL …

Our good friend, multi-time Investor Summit at Sea™ faculty member (who’s back again for 2020!) … and greatest-selling financial author in history …

Robert Kiyosaki thinks pensions are the greatest threat facing the financial world today.

Of course, it’s not like pension problems are breaking news. The whole crisis has been unfolding for a decade as more of a slow-motion train wreck.

But over the last few years, the looming disaster is getting hard to ignore …

America’s utterly predictable tsunami of pension problems
– The Washington Post, 2/22/17

Pension Fund Problems Worsen in 43 States
– Bloomberg, 6/30/17

States have a $1.4 trillion pension problem
– CNN Money, 4/12/2018

The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States is the Size of Germany’s Economy
– The Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2018

“Many retirement funds could face insolvency unless governments increase taxes, divert funds, or persuade workers to relinquish money they are owed.”

And it’s not just government pensions. Some of the biggest corporations are also struggling under the weight of their pension burdens …

GE’s $31 billion pension nightmare
– CNN Business, January 19, 2018

Here Are 14 Companies Getting Crushed By Pension Costs
– Business Insider, 8/15/2012

You get the idea. Huge storm clouds have been forming for quite a while … in both the public and private sectors.

In an election year, you’d expect to hear some chatter about it. But we’re guessing you won’t because there’s no politically palatable solution.

Of course, ignoring the problem won’t make it go away.

That’s why Kiyosaki is shining light on it. You can’t prepare for or profit from a problem you don’t or won’t see.

So this is a situation we’ve been watching more closely of late. And clues in the news tell us pension problems pose a threat to real estate investors.

Desperate politicians have already proposed funding their shortfalls with property taxes and cuts to benefits for pensioners … some of whom could be YOUR tenants.

Meanwhile, major corporations like General Electric and United Airlines have already cut their pension benefits.

Of course, the flip side of bad news is GOOD NEWS …

Pension problems also create opportunities for real estate investors.

We think pension managers will eventually concede that for a chance to save their funds from the Federal Reserve’s war on yields …

… they’re going to need to get REAL … real fast.

Pension fund managers will need to funnel more money away from Wall Street and into Main Street.

Think of all the reasons Main Street investors LOVE real estate …

… reasonably consistently achievable double-digit total returns 

… inflation-hedged yields much higher than bonds and without the counter-party-risk …

… assets which aren’t practical as gambling tokens in the Wall Street casinos, and therefore much less volatile in terms of yields and principal value.

We know. You’re already convinced real estate is awesome. And you may be wondering why everyone doesn’t invest in real estate.

But don’t under-estimate the seductive allure of Wall Street marketing and the pervasive political pressure to promote paper assets.

Remember, an argument can be made that government and Wall Street sometimes work together to the detriment of Main Street.

But when Main Street gets mad … it’s every politician and pension manager for himself.

So when poking around the crevices of the internet looking for credible clues …

… and being mindful that things NOT being talked about in well-publicized political discourse is probably more worth paying attention to …

… and we came across a couple of interesting articles …

CalPERS gets candid about ‘critical’ decade ahead
– Capitol Weekly, 8/27/19

Yes, we realize this article isn’t “fresh” … but it’s still relevant today. After all, they’re talking about the “decade ahead” … and again, this is a slow-motion train wreck.

Here’s a notable excerpt …

Quoting a letter written to CalPERS by a third-party consulting company brought in to help figure out what to do …

“ ‘The financial world is changing, and we must change with it,’ said the letter. ‘What we’ve done over the last 20 years won’t take us where we need to go in the future. New thinking and innovation are in order.’ ”

Of course, who knows what they mean by that. “Change”, “new thinking”, and “innovation” are all buzz words that lack meaning apart from a suggestion or context.

But one thing is perhaps becoming clear to the pension managers … Wall Street’s not the answer …

“ Meanwhile, a line [the] letter is a reminder that CalPERS remains at the mercy of the market, as when the stock market crash and recession struck a decade ago: ‘The value of the CalPERS fund fell 24 percent in a single fiscal year, to about $180 billion.’ ”

So it’s against this backdrop that we found the second, more recent, article noteworthy …

Sacramento County launches tender for alternative assets consultant
– Institutional Real Estate, 2/11/20

“The $10 billion Sacramento County (Calif.) Employees’ Retirement System (SCERS) is seeking a consultant for its alternative assets portfolio …”

“The alternative assets consultant works with the pension fund’s investment staff to help develop and maintain strategic plans for the system’s absolute return, private equity, private credit, real assets, and real estate investments.”

Pension problems are rampant in governments … from nations to states to counties and municipalities, as well as corporations all around the world.

As pension managers realize there’s opportunity to grow absolute returns through private placement and real estate 

… it opens up a potential floodgate of money into Main Street opportunities.

Of course, if you’re just a Mom & Pop Main Street investor … or even a fairly successful real estate syndicator doing multi-million-dollar deals …

… you may wonder how YOU can get in on the action.

Like Opportunity Zones, pensions pointing their portfolios at specific markets and niches have the potential to provide a tailwind to EVERYONE already there … or going along for the ride.

So pay attention to pensions … not just for their potential to torpedo the financial system …

… but for the opportunities created as they act out on “new thinking and innovation”.

Lastly, keep in mind that like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back in 2008, and the FDIC today …

… the Pension Guaranty Benefit Corporation is a horribly underfunded quasi-government enterprise backing TRILLIONS in potentially failing pensions.

If a substantial number of pensions fail (a VERY real possibility) …

… it’s all but certain the Federal Reserve will need to step in to paper over the mess with trillions in freshly printed dollars.

This weakens the dollar and among the biggest winners are borrowers and owners of real assets.

This makes real estate investors who use mortgages double winners.

So while you may not be able to calm the stormy seas …

… you can choose a boat that’s seaworthy and equipped to sail faster when the winds of change (and a falling dollar) blowhard.

Until next time … good investing!

The horrible housing blunder …

If you sometimes feel like a small fish in a very big ocean … it’s because you are.

There are LOTS of big, bigger, bigger-still, and downright ginormous other fish … some with very sharp teeth … circling all around you.

There are also mostly hidden forces creating powerful currents and waves … speeding you up, slowing you down, or taking you completely off course.

That’s why we look for clues in the news.

And because mainstream financial media doesn’t cater to Main Street real estate investors, we need to stay alert to notice things often hiding in plain sight.

In a recent trek through an airport on our way to speak at an investment conference … a notable magazine cover hit us in the face like a brick …

The Horrible Housing Blunder
Why the Obsession with Home Ownership is So Harmful
The Economist Jan 18-24, 2020

If you’re not familiar, The Economist is one of those highbrow publications ginormous fish and wave-makers are reading.

The Economist articles provide insights into how powerful people think about small fish like us and the things we care about … like housing.

In The Economist table of contents, the housing blunder topic is introduced this way …

“The West’s obsession with home ownership undermines growth, fairness and public faith in capitalism.

“Housing is the world’s biggest investment class … at the root of many of the rich world’s social and economic problems.

Wow. We didn’t know home ownership is so harmful to our fellow man. We’re ashamed.

But before we dig in, take a minute and simply consider their conclusion …

…and what happens to YOU if powerful people decide to implement policies to protect the world from the evils of housing.

Now you know why we pay attention.

So, on page 9 of The Economist, under their “Leaders” section (think about THAT) …

… they assert housing markets CAUSE both sudden economic crashes AND chronic economic “disease”.

Then they support their conclusion by claiming “a trillion dollars of dud mortgages blew up the financial system in 2007-08”.

Maybe you’ve heard that one before.

Of course, they make no mention of the trillions of dollars of Wall Street concocted derivatives of those dud mortgages …

(Warren Buffett called derivatives “weapons of mass financial destruction” … NOT the mortgages underneath them)

They also don’t account for the dangerously weak lending “standards” (we use the term loosely) Wall Street used to entice weak borrowers.

Nor do they mention the reckless, speculative and highly leveraged bets placed using those mortgage derivatives by arrogant gamblers in the corrupt Wall Street casinos.

Of course, the greed behind all of it is simply a “derivative” of the moral hazard created when everyone in the market KNOWS the Federal Reserve will paper over any problem with freshly printed “money”.

Back to The Economist special report on the horrible housing blunder …

Besides the terror of housing threatening the entire financial systemThe Economist says …

“… just as pernicious is the creeping dysfunction … housing created …” which they define as …

“… vibrant cities without space to grow; aging homeowners sitting in half-empty houses …

… and a generation of young people who cannot easily afford to rent or buy and think capitalism has let them down.”

So it seems cities which selfishly vote to preserve green space for themselves, their families, and the environment are … financial terrorists.

As are old folks who have the gall to stay in the homes they raised their children in … long after the children have successfully (and presumably permanently) moved out.

And speaking of all those independent young people … apparently because of these selfish homeowners, they can’t “easily” afford to put a roof over their head.

Of course, there’s no mention of the terror created through government sponsored student debt which both inflated the cost of college and enslaved a generation into inescapable debt …

… making home ownership … or even renting … far from “easy”.

Ummm … sorry, but how is that housing’s fault?

And what do the social scientists at The Economist suggest is the answer to the horrible housing blunder?

For that we need to flip over to page 44 where we discover that …

“Over the last 70 years, global house prices have quadrupled in real terms.”

For those keeping score, 70 years ago was 1950. Store that for future reference.

“Real terms” means adjusting both incomes and prices for inflation. In other words, prices rose four times faster than incomes.

The solution to all these ills is threefold says the author …

First, is “… better regulation of housing finance …” so that “… people are NOT encouraged to funnel capital into the housing market.”

Yes, every business person knows when you need MORE of something you should starve it of capital. Brilliant.

Next is … wait for it … a better train and road network” to “allow more people to live farther afield.” …

… because who doesn’t enjoy riding public transportation 100 miles a day to go to work?

And last but not least, our personal favorite …

“… abolishing single-family-home zoning, which prevents densification …” and “…boosting the construction of public housing.”

Makes sense (not) because clearly, the only thing better than riding public transportation to and from work for hours a day is coming home to relax in “the projects”.

Of course, as you’ve probably discerned, we think the whole thing is absurd.

But while it’s laughable, it’s also scary … because this is the way those ginormous fish think.

Worse, they’ve assigned the symptom (high housing prices and stagnant real wages) to the wrong disease … so they’re prescribing the wrong medicine.

Housing prices took off in the ‘50s because Bretton-Woods handed the U.S., and then in 1971, the entire world, a completely unaccountable ability to go into unlimited debt.

Worse, it requires the perpetual, unrelenting growth of debt … or the system collapses.

So the wizards must continually find new ways to fabricate affordable debt 

… through mortgages, student loans, government spending, endless wars, or (insert boondoggle of your choice) …

… plus, 40 years of falling interest rates … to zero and beyond!

It would take so much more space than this modest muse permits to delve deeper into the mindset, motives, and methods of the wizards behind the curtain …

… and to explore the MANY opportunities for Main Street investors who are aware and prepared.

For now, we simply encourage you to PAY ATTENTION and THINK. And look for every opportunity to talk with others who are doing the same.

Way back in January 1988, the cover of The Economist boldly warned the world to “Get Ready for a World Currency”.

As we chronicle in our Future of Money and Wealth video, The Dollar Under Attack, and is easily seen through MANY headlines since …

… the dollar’s role as currency of the world is steadily being attacked RIGHT NOW by both friendfoe, and technology.

Here in January 2020, The Economist is overtly prodding the world to take on the threat of housing …

“Bold action is needed. Until it is taken, housing will continue to weaken the foundations of the modern world.”

This hits us all right where we live and invest. We should all be paying attention.

The world has gone MAD …

In case you haven’t noticed, there’s a LOT going on in the world as we sail into a brand new investing decade …

In addition to wars and rumors of wars, a growing number of notable people are publicly expressing concerns …

… not just about the economy and financial markets, but the system itself.

Perhaps the most notable is Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.

In a recent article, Dalio warns …

“The World has Gone Mad and the System is Broken”

Dalio’s essential thesis is the system of free money has created a series of negative trends that will eventually converge into a fundamental and epic re-set.

“This set of circumstances is unsustainable and certainly can no longer be pushed as it has been pushed since 2008. That is why I believe that the world is approaching a big paradigm shift.”

Of course, just because he’s successful doesn’t mean he’s right. But Dalio is certainly well-qualified to have an opinion worth paying attention to.

But as we’ve learned from studying smart people, understanding what they’re saying takes some time and effort.

We think it’s worth it. Because any “big paradigm shift” involving the financial system affects EVERYONE … including lowly Main Street real estate investors.

If you’re new to this discussion, consider making a modest investment of time and money to watch our Future of Money and Wealth presentation, “The Dollar Under Attack”. It’s helped a lot of real estate investors see a bigger picture.

It’s important to understand the difference between the “economy” (activity) and the “system” (the structure supporting the activity … including currency, banks, credit, and bond markets).

Remember, the economy was humming along leading into 2008 … booming, in fact. But the system was faulty under the hood, and ultimately broke down.

Just like a car, the economy can go faster or slower … but only while it’s mechanically sound.

If the vehicle’s systems fail, then the car is incapable of speed … and may not even run at all.

Then, when the car breaks down, your skill as a driver is meaningless, except perhaps for avoiding catastrophe when it happens.

In all cases, you end up on the side of the road going nowhere.

The same is true with the financial system and your skill as an investor. If the financial system fails, it can sideline a lot of people … including you.

Of course, the financial system, like a car, has gauges … indicators of performance, health, or impending failure.

But not all gauges are easily seen. And reading them requires education.

That’s why we hang out with smart people like Chris Martenson, Peter Schiff, Brien Lundin. G. Edward Griffin, and Robert Kiyosaki.

Even better, each of these guys are connected to lots of other smart people like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Maloney, Grant Williams … and many more.

You may not yet be familiar with some of these names. Except for Kiyosaki, none of them are serious real estate investors … and that’s GOOD.

As we learned (the hard way) in 2008, when you live in an echo chamber of people who all hope … even need … the economy and financial system to be functional …

… there’s a tendency to ignore or discount even the most obvious problems.

As Upton Sinclair said …

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

There were warning signs leading up to 2008. Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki both saw them and publicly warned people. Very few listened.

Unsurprisingly, both Schiff and Kiyosaki stopped getting invited on to mainstream financial shows. Wall Street’s not likely to advertise on programs outing a failing system.

And people making millions in the mortgage business weren’t interested in hearing how the mortgage markets were about to implode. Ditto for real estate, stocks, and bonds.

However, smart investors are wise to look beyond their own normalcy bias and the filtered news which is produced by people whose livelihood depends on a rosy narrative.

Risks are ever-present … and the worst are those you don’t see coming.

But before you go full fetal freak out, we’re NOT saying the end of the world is nigh. After all …

“A bend in the road isn’t the end of the road … unless you fail to make the turn.”
Helen Keller

But if Dalio and others are correct, then there’s more than a reasonable probability of substantial changes to the financial environment we’re all operating in … then it’s worth preparing for.

After all, it’s better to be prepared and not have a crisis, then have a crisis and not be prepared.

Remember … ignoring risk isn’t optimism, it’s foolishness.

Legendary real estate investor Sam Zell says one of his greatest assets is the ability to see risk and move forward. You can’t navigate a hazard you don’t see.

So what are some things our smart friends are watching heading into 2020?

Gold, oil, debt, the Fed’s balance sheet, bonds, and interest rates.

These are like the dashboard gauges for the health of the financial system.

Right now, at least three are blinking red … gold, debt and the Fed’s balance sheet.

It’s also important to note that those three are also leading indicators for bonds and interest rates.

That’s because if the world loses faith in the dollar, they won’t buy U.S. debt, which is growing at a staggering rate.

In spite of all their bickering, Congress and the White House manage to agree to big time spending.

And if the world loses its appetite for U.S. debt, then either interest rates rise (something which directly affects nearly all real estate investors) …

… or the Fed needs to buy up the new debt with freshly printed money. This is called “monetizing the debt” … and would show up on the Fed’s balance sheet.

Some say this “monetization” could lead to hyper-inflation. Others think it means the U.S. could go into decades-long stagnation like Japan.

Maybe.

The difference is Japan doesn’t issue the world’s reserve currency and enjoys a friendly relationship with the country that does (the United States).

So we’d say the United States situation isn’t exactly the same as Japan. But what do we know? We’re just two dudes with microphones.

Maybe there are clues in the news …

The world’s super-rich are hoarding physical gold
Yahoo Finance, 12/10/19

Hmmmm … it seems the “fear” trade … those looking to park wealth someplace “safe” are choosing gold … in addition to, or instead of U.S. Treasuries.

If instead of Treasuries, you’d expect interest rates to rise as bond prices fall due to less bidding.

But while there’s currently only a little upward pressure on rates, it’s not much … so someone must be buying them. Chris Martenson says it’s the Fed.

In other words, the Fed might be starting to monetize the debt.

So it’s notable the “super-rich” are following the lead of the world’s central banks in acquiring gold. No surprise, as of this writing, that gold is trading at a 7-year high.

In other words, if Chris Martenson is right, everyone (except the Fed) would rather own gold than U.S. debt denominated in U.S. dollars.

But we know Uncle Sam can’t default. The US can print an unlimited number of dollars. So no one is avoiding Treasuries because they don’t think they’ll get paid back.

The concern must be the value of what they’ll get paid back with … the dollar.

Think about your paradigm of wealth. Do you denominate wealth in U.S. dollars? Are you ready for a “big paradigm shift”?

Buckle up.

The new decade should be an exciting ride … scary and dangerous for those not strapped in with the right education, information, portfolio structure, and tribe.

Education, preparation, and tribe have never been more important. If you’re not seriously investing in those things, perhaps now is the time to start.

Meanwhile, we’re bullish on Main Street.

We think real people who do real work and own real assets will fare much better than those counting on paper promises from Wall Street, bankers, politicians, and pensions.

If you’re a fan of real estate and other real assets, you’re already on the right track. Now it’s time to take it to the next level.

Robert Kiyosaki on Private Investing and the Three Kinds of Money

We’re sitting down at the Rich Dad radio studio with our long-time friend and the Rich Dad himself … Robert Kiyosaki!

As the world’s best-selling personal finance author … Robert is sharing his thoughts on the important differences between public and private investments. 

Robert calls these differences “the three kinds of money.” 

We’ll also revisit the enduring message of Robert’s record-setting book, “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” … and talk about the dangers and opportunities facing investors today. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your idea-rich host, Robert Helms
  • His humor-rich co-host, Russell Gray
  • “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” best-selling author, Robert Kiyosaki

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Public investment vs. private investment

This week we’re going to talk about the difference between public and private investments … and who better to share ideas than Robert Kiyosaki. 

Robert has been on our show more than any other guest … and for good reason! He is the best-selling personal finance author in the world. 

We’re at an interesting point in the real estate business … but also in the economy. 

One of the themes that we’ve been talking about is the idea of private versus public and investing your money in a place that you understand … and that you’re educated about. 

Robert says the first step to understanding public versus private is to understand the shadow banking system. 

“The shadow banking system is what brought down the subprime market. It wasn’t real estate that brought down the market,” Robert says. 

What the shadow banking system did was inject the veins of the world economy with the most toxic asset classes. Robert says that the way they get you is via public stock market. 

But the beauty of being a real estate guy, Robert says, is that you are actually an untraceable part of the shadow market … but you can also function as a private entity. 

“I realized that the reason I make so much more money is I’m private. I’m not in the stock market,” Robert says. 

If you buy a house and it’s a rental house, that’s not a public transaction … it’s a private transaction. 

With all the uncontrollable factors of the public sector … shenanigans, as Robert likes to say … becoming a private investor is a great option. But it’s not without risk, and it’s not without trouble. 

The pros of being public is that you can get in and out quickly. It’s easy to change your course. It’s not the same if you have bought an entire apartment complex. 

If you are going to be private … your number one priority is your financial education. 

Cash flow and education

The biggest place where people get stuck is that they don’t understand the fundamental premise of what wealth is. 

It’s cash flow. 

When you start betting on the asset price … whether it’s the price of the house or the price of the stock or with negative interest rates … you’re not investing for cash flow yield. 

Instead, you’re investing hoping that somebody will come along and pay more for that same bond than you paid for it. It’s all gambling … and they want you in their casinos. 

If you invest in things that are real and are producing fundamental profits … you have staying power. You have resilient wealth. 

Part of being a real estate investor is getting in touch with your inner investor. We call it a personal investment philosophy … figuring out what you want real estate to do for you. 

And then you get educated. 

You could look at the fact that real estate isn’t liquid as a negative … but it’s also a positive. 

Since the market moves slowly, you don’t have to jump on a deal this minute or it’s gone. 

Instead, you get educated. You study markets. You study properties. You study how the rent works … and then you can grow wealthy over time. It doesn’t have to be an overnight success. 

Three types of money

Robert says that he believes there are three types of money today. 

The first is God’s money … gold and silver. It will be here long after we are gone. 

Then, there’s government money … flat currency … fake money. The only reason fake money exists is for paying taxes. 

The third type of money is people’s money … things like Bitcoin and other cyber money. 

Keeping these three types of money in mind can help you develop your investment philosophy as you move forward. 

Robert often says that only lazy people invest their own money … which is why we are big fans of syndication. 

Syndication is a great way to get private. You can invest or create investments that aren’t public investments. 

Whatever you do … whatever your personal investment philosophy … get educated, get private, and get out and make some equity happen. 

Hear more from Robert Kyosaki by listening in to our full episode!

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