Since the start of the year, mortgage rates have been trending upwards — and according to many experts, this trend will likely continue through October.
Mortgage rates drove even higher last week after the Federal Reserve signaled it would continue its aggressive action to cool inflation. That, and rising uncertainty in the overall housing market, caused mortgage application volume to drop 3.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
With mortgage rates soaring (now shockingly above 7% amid the fastest rise in history), it’s no surprise that analysts expected pending home sales to slide further in August (latest data) and they were right. Pending Home Sales fell 2.0% MoM (more than the 1.5% MoM decline expected) pushing the index down 22.5% YoY…
The unraveling of the bond market will continue to batter stocks over the coming months, according to a Friday note from Bank of America. Bonds are experiencing their worst decline since 1949 as interest rates soar amid a global central bank campaign to fight inflation. The US Aggregate Bond ETF is down 15% year-to-date, while global bonds are down even more.
Investors globally are wondering – after CPI sent the ‘peak inflation’ narrative to the bottom of the ocean and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (and this FOMC statement and press conference) crushed the ‘Fed Pivot’ narrative – what other potential indicators/signals (aside from a multi-month slowdown in inflation of course) could prompt Powell and his pals to back off their uber-hawkishness?