After the collapse in housing starts data (and mortgage applications and homebuyer confidence and homebuilder sentiment), it should be no surprise that analysts expected existing home sales to continue their streak of declines in September.

Existing home sales dropped 1.5% MoM in September (better than the 2.1% decline expected, but only because of a major downward revision to August’s 0.4% drop to -0.8% MoM). Existing home sales are now down 23.79% YoY – the worst drop since Nov 2010 (ex COVID lockdowns)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the eighth straight monthly drop in existing home sales (worst losing streak since 2007), pushing the SAAR down to 4.71mm, the weakest since April 2014 (ex COVID lockdowns)

Source: Bloomberg

And bear in mind these contracts were likely signed before mortgage rates really started to accelerate and hit 7.00%!

“We are not yet at the bottom,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said on a call with reporters.

Yun expects the figures to keep deteriorating given the current data is not reflective of where mortgage rates are now.

“Despite weaker sales, multiple offers are still occurring with more than a quarter of homes selling above list price due to limited inventory,” Yun said in a statement.

“The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010, when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”

The median selling price rose 8.4% from a year earlier to $384,800. Even so, that’s the lowest since March.

Sales fell in three of four regions, including a 1.9% drop in the South. The Fort Myers and Tampa regions of Florida saw a marked drop in purchases in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Yun said. He described the disruption as temporary.

Properties remained on the market for an average of 19 days, up from 16 days in August.

Mission Accomplished Mr.Powell?