“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
– George Santayana
This is one of our favorite quotes. It’s simple yet powerful wisdom … useful for individuals, businesses, governments … and certainly for investors!
We could take this theme in a thousand different directions, but this CNBC headline caught our attention this week …
With tax reform in today’s financial headlines … and our memories of what happened to real estate after the 1986 tax reform …
… we think it’s a good time to consider the impact of tax policy on the economy, jobs, and real estate.
As for Puerto Rico … it’s a huge mess after Hurricane Maria. Lots of infrastructure and real estate have been destroyed.
Of course, the financial mess in Puerto Rico was in the news long before Maria showed up. The natural disaster just made the financial disaster a whole lot worse.
Let’s dig in and look for lessons for real estate investors …
The CNBC article points out, “Even before a devastating hurricane … the government was struggling with an economy in shambles …”
And, “That fiscal mess has its roots in the repeal of a controversial corporate tax break that helped spark an exodus from the island that sent its economy into reverse.”
Yikes. Will people and businesses really move just because of some “tiny” tax law?
Yes. Yes, they will. It turns out taxes (and avoiding them) are kind of a big deal to people and businesses.
In this case, a tax break, “enacted in 1976, allowed U.S. manufacturing companies to avoid corporate income taxes on profits made in U.S. territories, including Puerto Rico. Manufacturers … flocked to the island.”
This lead to an economic and employment boom in Puerto Rico.
Of course, when politicians see money they just can’t help themselves. The Puerto Rican politicians started spending, and borrowing to spend even more.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the CNBC article says …
“But by the early 1990s, the provision faced growing opposition from critics who attacked the tax break as a form of corporate welfare.”
So in 1996, a ten-year phasing out of the tax break began and “plant closures and job losses followed.”
Which bring us to tax policy and real estate investors …
The law had nothing to do with real estate or investors … but then again, it had EVERYTHING to do with real estate investing …
… because real estate investments are highly dependent on JOBS.
And whether you think it’s fair or not, corporations make decisions about where to do business (or not) based partially on tax policy.
In this case, tax breaks attracted corporations to set up shop and were good for jobs and real estate. The removal of those breaks had the opposite effect.
Of course, the law in question was passed and repealed at the federal level. It wasn’t under Puerto Rico’s control.
But Puerto Rico got the lesson.
So in 2012, Puerto Rico passed Act 20 and 22 … effectively becoming an attractive tax haven for both businesses and individuals.
We first heard about this from Summit at Sea™ faculty member Peter Schiff … who moved his asset management company and himself to Puerto Rico to save taxes.
He’s not the only one. We have several other friends who’ve done the same thing.
Right now, the tax law still exists … though much of Puerto Rico doesn’t.
We think there’s probably a way to combine those two circumstances to create an opportunity for real estate investors.
Of course, back in the U.S., tax reform is in the air again …and corporate tax breaks are in the mix.
Will corporate tax breaks bring businesses to the U.S. and create an employment boom? If so, where? And will the breaks be permanent or temporary?
It’s too soon to tell, but it’s something we’ll be watching closely.
Meanwhile, there’s another lesson from the Puerto Rico story …
We know a tax break brought in a tide of corporate investment, and the removal of the tax break decades later took the tide back out.
But there was a lot of opportunity in between.
Of course, to catch a wave, you need to be watching the horizon. And when you see the wave forming, you need to paddle quickly into position.
In Puerto Rico, as in Florida, Houston, and the several Caribbean islands all decimated in varying degrees by the back to back hurricanes …
… there’s going to be a big tide of capital flowing in to repair everything.
And because of the scope of the problems, the season of rebuilding could last quite a while.
Recently, we talked with our boots-on-the-ground turnkey property provider in Orlando, and he says he sees a lot of opportunity in his market right now …
Problem properties are popping up with pricing that leaves some meat on the bone for investors.
That’s good news … not just for investors, but for the community at large … because investment capital is needed to help with the recovery process.
The same is true in Houston, Puerto Rico and other areas ravaged by the storms.
Of course, conditions in each market are different. Orlando is in far better shape than Houston which is far better shape than Puerto Rico.
All that to say there are different levels of distress, bargains, risk and reward in each market.
Unfortunately for the average individual part-time investor, the gap between seeing opportunity and being able to take advantage can be too big to bridge.
For most U.S. citizens, their “investment” into these disaster zones will be a de facto donation through their taxes, as federal relief funds pour into each area.
Of course, many kind-hearted individuals will make modest personal donations, which is admirable.
But to get LARGE amounts of private capital into each area to help rebuild, it’s going to take an investment opportunity.
And we think private syndicators have a role to play.
Motivated real estate entrepreneurs with skills and availability have an opportunity to start a private investment fund to aggegate private capital and make profitable investments in each of these areas.
Busy qualified investors who don’t have the time or skills, but see the opportunity, can make an investment in these private funds and earn a profit while helping heal ravaged markets.
This is the kind of capitalism that makes a positive difference in the world … people helping themselves by helping others.
Or as our good friend Gene Guarino often says, “Do well, by doing good.”
Until next time … good investing!
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