Market analysis for dummies …

Buying an income producing property is an investment in the underlying economy.

That’s REALLY where the income originates. That’s why we put so much emphasis on market analysis.

Investors who focus exclusively on deal analysis (crunching the numbers on the property) but fail to underwrite the market sometimes end up in a mess.

The context of a deal is the macro-environment … things like interest rates, taxes, energy costs … that affect everyone everywhere.

But there’s also regional factors … local taxes, landlord law, supply and demand, and jobs.

Once all those things check out, you (probably through your boots-on-the ground team) go to the street level and start looking for a deal that makes sense by the numbers.

That’s because a strong market will lift a marginal deal, while a weak market can suck the life out of even a “good” deal.

Market selection matters.

Of course, that’s easy to say. But figuring markets out can be a bit of a challenge.

So we cheat.

While in school it’s frowned upon to sneak a peak at the smart kid’s homework … in the real world of real estate investing it’s actually a preferred practice.

In this case, the very smart folks at Cushman Wakefield recently released a report they call Spotlight on U.S. Employment – A Tale of 35 MSAs.

As you’ll see, it’s about office space. But even if you’re not an office investor, the report is helpful for understanding where jobs are being created … and why.

Remember, market analysis is about economic activity. And even if you’re exclusively an affordable housing investor and your target tenant doesn’t work in an office … remember, high-paying jobs create a ripple effect.

That’s because a six-figure office worker spends a chunk of their income at local businesses … restaurants, healthcare, auto needs, entertainment, etc.

In fact, as Amazon claimed during the highly publicized hunt for their HQ2, each high-paying job creates an additional 4-5 jobs in the local market.

Our point is that tracking the office market can be a good gauge of local economic vibrancy, no matter what type of real estate you’re investing in.

So let’s dig into the report and see which markets look promising …

“While the U.S. economy has added jobs at a steady pace … the growth in employment has not been evenly distributed.”

“ … hotspots … have outperformed the national average … based on local market factors.”

Isn’t that that way it always goes? The world’s not fair … and that’s GREAT …

… because it means well-informed strategic real estate investors can dramatically improve their odds of success simply by being attentive to market selection.

The CW report looks at 35 markets over 9 years and divides them into categories … All-Stars,Over-AchieversMiddle-of-the-Road, and Late-Bloomers (like us!).

The first three are probably self-explanatory. Late-Bloomers are markets whose growth the last four years is substantially higher than the first five years.

We think there might be some real opportunity in Late-Bloomer markets because they’re less likely to attract attention (and competition) from less studious investors.

It’s kind of like a team with a few early season losses that gets hot at the end of the season, sneaks into the playoffs ranked low, and then shocks everyone.

We’re not saying momentum is all that matters, but it happens for a reason … so it’s probably worth a deeper dive.

But let’s start with the five All-Stars …

  1. Dallas
  2. New York City
  3. San Francisco
  4. Riverside / San Bernadino
  5. Austin
  6. Orlando

Dallas is no surprise to us. We’ve been attracted to Dallas since the Great Recession.

At least in the beginning, and even to this day, DFW has it all … business friendly, low-tax, great infrastructure, geographically linked economic drivers (energy and distribution). It’s awesome.

But NYC and SF? High-tax, uber-regulated, very unaffordable. What gives?

We’re guessing it probably has to do with lots of the Fed’s easy money flooding into the financial and tech sectors.

Of course, from an income property investing perspective, neither NYC or SF makes much sense by the numbers or the business climate.

And if someone trips over the cord at the Fed and the printing press stops, it might suck the equity out of those markets. We saw a little of that happen as rates rose and the Fed tightened.

And add to that the recent tax code pouring some SALT on the wound, wealthy folks are leaving … and in many cases, taking their businesses and spending with them.

The point is that just because a market is on the All-Star list for job creation and office space absorption doesn’t make it a n0-brainer market for residential income property investing.

You still need to use your brain.

Meanwhile, we’re guessing the San Bernardino / Riverside market growth is probably distribution related. There’s a zillion people in Southern California … and if you want to ship stuff to them fast, you need nearby distribution.

The Inland Empire is among the most affordable and open areas in California to build these big centers. It’s also not too far from the ports bringing containers of merchandise for domestic distribution.

So ff we HAD to invest in California again, the Inland Empire would probably be on the short list.

But the bigger lesson here is to pay attention to the role of distribution in driving a market’s job growth. It’s one of the shining stars of commercial property investing.

And when you dig deeper, you’ll see distribution is something several top markets have in common … and those jobs aren’t getting offshored … though they could be robotized.

Of course, technology doesn’t necessarily kill jobs … but it can move them. After all, robots need to be built, installed, programmed, updated, repaired.

So that’s just one more trend for a savvy investor to watch carefully.

Among the Late-Bloomers are markets we know and like are Jacksonville and Memphis. Landlord friendly, good numbers, and apparently some good local economics.

What’s educational and fun (at least for real estate junkies) is to look at these “hot lists” and then analyze the markets for similarities and themes.

You’ll often find clues about what makes a market attractive to employers and resilient for investors. Then you’ll recognize these factors sooner in lesser known markets and able to make your move ahead of the crowd.

Just remember … while sneaking a peak at the smart kid’s homework can shorten your learning curve, it’s not a substitute for doing your own homework.

Until next time … good investing!


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A divergence in the farce …

In our last edition we took a look at this chart for clues to where we’re at in “the cycle” …

Housing Price Index to Production Wage Index
Interesting Image

SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC DATA HTTPS://FRED.STLOUISFED.ORG

(The data came from the Fed, but the chart was put together by The Heritage Foundation here)

You can see a tight correlation between wage growth and property prices from 1991 to 1999.  Then something happened to create a divergence.

That divergence blew into a BIG gap between wages and housing prices … with home prices inflating much faster than wages.  At least until the middle of 2007.

Then something else happened which crashed housing prices … and not just back down to the wage trend line …

… but housing prices dipped well below the trend line (“over-corrected”), hitting bottom in 2011 and starting a new “bull run” in early 2012.

That’s when Warren Buffet famously proclaimed on CNBC 

I’d Buy Up ‘A Couple Hundred Thousand’ Single-Family Homes If I Could

Warren Buffett 2/27/12

Smart guy.  Obviously, when you look at the chart, the timing was perfect.  And most folks who were buyers in 2012 are sitting on piles of equity today.

But now it’s clear the correlation between housing prices and incomes remains broken.  Housing prices are once again stretching the limits of incomes.

No wonder there’s pressure to lower taxes, interest rates, and oil prices!

The only way to keep this party going is to make those relatively anemic household incomes control bigger loans.  And to no surprise …

Average U.S. mortgage size hits record-high $354,500

Reuters, 3/13/19

Does this mean housing prices are about to crash again?  Maybe.

It’s said history doesn’t always repeat itself, but it often rhymes.  That’s a catchy way of saying people often find new ways to make the same mistakes.

Then again, smart people learn from their mistakes so they can avoid making them again.

In this case, go back and look at the chart.  But instead of focusing on housing prices, focus on incomes.

What do you see?

Incomes are slowly, consistently, persistently, steadily … rising.

Of course, if you look at the CPI (inflation) chart below, you can see the cost of living is also rising …

Interesting Image
So just because people are making more money, it doesn’t mean they’re getting ahead.

In fact, folks who don’t own inflating assets which can be sold or borrowed against to supplement their incomes … are falling further and further behind.

So what does it mean, what can we learn, and what can we do to survive and thrive?

These are all topics of a much bigger discussion.  We covered some if it in a recent radio show.

For now, here are a few suggestions to consider:

Focus on investing and underwriting for cash-flow …

Yes, you’ll make more money on equity.  But equity is a by-product of cash-flow.  The more cash-flow, the more equity.

More importantly, conservative cash-flow gives you staying power when asset prices temporarily collapse.

Think of equity as a fun, but fickle lover … and cash-flow as the loyal, predictable partner you can build a life with.

Sequester some bubble equity for a rainy day …

Rates are low.  Lending guidelines are softening.

This indicates there’s a lot of motivation (desperation?) to get more debt in the system … a sometimes-telltale sign we’re nearing the end of a boom cycle.

Of course, when you harvest equity from properties, it’s important to be smart about using the proceeds.

We think it’s best to create cash-flow (have we mentioned this is important?) … along with liquidity, and safety from volatile markets and financial systems.

We could do an entire series on this one topic … and in fact, we’re working on it.

Something like … “knowing what we know now, this is what we wish we would have done heading into the 2008 financial crisis.”

Yes, we know the title needs a little work.

Watch for signs which signal shifts …

Shift happens.  It’s painful when you’re on the wrong end of it, and that usually happens because you missed the sign … not because it wasn’t there.

In 1999, Uncle Sam pressured then semi-private Fannie and Freddie to lower their lending standards to help marginal borrowers buy homes.

It worked.  Home ownership … and prices … went way up.

In 2001, the Alan Greenspan Fed threw gasoline on the fire by pumping in billions (which was a lot of money back then) into the system to reflate the stock market after the Dot Com crash.

But a lot of the money ended up in bonds … mortgage-backed securities in particular … and ultimately into housing … inflating an equity bubble.

Oops.

In fact, Greenspan tried to jawbone the markets into prudence.  But he’d already spiked the punch bowl … and everyone was in full-blown party mode.

More recently, the Fed tried to take away the current punch bowl by raising rates … and took a lot of criticism.

When you see interest rates and lending standards falling, it’s a sign.

Study history … and talk with smart, experienced people …

 Everything is 20/20 in hindsight. It’s easy to predict the past.

But as it’s been said …

 “Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.” – Edmund Burke

That’s why we encourage attendance at live events like the New Orleans Investment Conference and the Investor Summit at Sea™.

These are great places to connect with like-minded folks, have our perspectives broadened, and get into great conversations.

But even if you’re a dedicated homebody, invest in finding a local tribe of similarly interested people to study and talk with.

You’ll learn more faster in conversations with others compared to simply gorging yourself on terabytes of content.

It’s important to use conversation to process what you consume.

Enjoy the sunshine, but pack an umbrella …

We’re not saying a crash is coming.  But no one can say it isn’t.

It seems to us the best plan is to prepare for sunshine or rain.  In practical terms, this means ….

… organize some liquidity and keep it insulated from both market risk and counter-party risk …

… build a solid brand and network with well-capitalized potential investors …

… fortify the cash-flows and financing structures on your keepers …

… jettison assets you think already have their best days behind them …

… study history, watch for clues in the news, and mastermind with smart investors.

Because you’re only better off for doing all these things whether the party continues or comes to an ugly end.

And this is probably not a good time to get too over-extended.

Besides, even if you’re interested in aggressive personal wealth building right now …

… it’s arguably faster and safer to build rapid wealth through syndication rather than getting personally over-extended.

Until next time … good investing!


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Podcast: Where We Are in the Cycle and What You Can Do About It

It’s been said that history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes … and what goes up, must come down.

The persistent ups and downs of markets creates a certain anxiety when a boom starts to mature. Will the good times roll … or is the wind about to change?

Tune in as we take on where we are in the cycle … and what you can do about it.


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Boom or bubble … where are we in the cycle?

A lot of folks have been asking lately … where are we at in “the cycle”?

Of course, the question presumes cycles exist (they do).

But with so many new people getting into real estate investing … including many who’ve never invested through a “correction” (geek speak for a downturn) …

… it’s amazing there’s anyone who isn’t wondering when the next one’s coming … and HOW to know.

It’s not really that complicated, unless you’re trying to get the timing down to the precise day and time.

Then again, if it were truly easy, everyone would know it and be on the right side of it.

This is where it gets tricky …

That’s because for there to be a right side, there’s got to be a wrong side.

This means if everyone knows it’s coming and acts accordingly, not only will it not not happen …

(We know … that’s a notty sentence.  Our English teachers are rolling over in their graves.  They never liked it when we were too notty.)

… but it’s actually more likely to happen because everyone knows it’s coming.

Our point is cycles are as much psychological as fundamental.

So when everyone sees it and moves in anticipation … it’s their very movement that makes it happen.  It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You see it play out all the time in the paper markets.

Like a high-speed tailgater … even a flash of brake lights causes the lemmings of Wall Street to rush from one position to another …

… all trying to outrun each other to the exit of the entrance of a trade.  The rush pushed prices up or down depending on which way the crowd’s running.

Of course, as we often point out … real estate investing is boring by comparison … in a good way.  Real estate is slow, steady, and relatively stable.

That’s because real estate is not a commodity.  Real estate can’t be traded in large lots at lightning speed … because every deal is different.

And with real estate, the logistics of the transaction …

… verifying title, arranging financing and insurance, getting inspections and appraisals, and simply vacating the property …

… are all glacierly slow when measured in Wall Street nano-seconds.

Nonetheless, real estate is not immune to a rush for the exits … especially now that Wall Street players own huge blocks (pun semi-intended) of homes.

But even though real estate cycles like everything else, it’s still very slow.  It’s easy to fall asleep at the wheel. 

Of course, even if you’re alert (and we all know the world needs more alerts) … you need to know what to pay attention to.

And THIS is where newbie investors get confused.  They don’t know which gauges to watch.

Is it the stock market?  Interest rates?  Jobs?  Wages?  Taxes?  Cap rates?  Days on market?  Year-over-year price changes?  Price trends?  Occupancies?

Yikes.  It’s information overload.

No wonder people just want to ask someone they perceive as smart to flip to the back of the book and point at the answer.

Sorry to burst your bubble (calm down … it’s just a figure of speech), but the truth is no one knows for sure.

That’s partly because real estate is highly local.  And there are many niches … each with their own unique dynamics.

Still … there are some basic principles to apply to whatever product niche and market you’re investing in.

It comes down to the willingness and capacity to pay more.  And it’s important to note those are NOT the same.

Just because you want something, doesn’t mean you can afford it.

So effective upward pressure on prices comes when the supply in the market is being overwhelmed by demand from buyers fueled with the capacity to pay more.

So, the key ingredients to understanding what drives pricing are …

  • Supply, and the capacity for supply to expand
  • Demand, in terms of number of people chasing the supply …
  • Capacity to pay, which is generally a factor of incomes, interest rates, and loan availability.

(For rental properties, incomes are rents and net operating incomes. For single-family consumer housing, income means wages.)

Of course, to be precise with timing, you’ll need to dig into each of these factors for your specific geography, demographic, and product niche.

But when addressing “where we are in the cycle” (bet your thought we’d never get there) …

… you’re looking for a divergence between growth and the underlying driver.

Since housing is a hot topic for everyone … and usually the first thing that pops to mind when asking about real estate cycles …

… take a look at this chart:

Housing Price Index to Production Wage Index

Interesting Image
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC DATA   HTTPS://FRED.STLOUISFED.ORG   
(The data came from the Fed, but the chart was put together by  The Heritage Foundation  here )

Notice that wages and home prices are tightly correlated from 1991 to 1999.Then something apparently happened to create a divergence in 1999.  Of course, from 2000 to 2007 a “bubble” blew up and peaked.

We’ve all heard or experienced how that ended.  Not pretty for those who weren’t prepared for the possibility.

Severe deflation (the housing crash) ensued.

And as the chart shows, prices relative to incomes over-corrected … falling below the wage trend line …  so by 2011 housing was actually very affordable.

But it didn’t last long.  And you can see where we’re at in the “cycle” now.

Kind of makes you stop and go hmmmm….

Of course, there’s a lot of insight hidden in the history of events from 1999 to 2019.

And because real estate is about buying and holding for the production of income over the long haul …

… it’s probably worth a trip down memory lane to see what can be gleaned from the last 20 years and applied to the next 20 years.

We’ll take that up in our next edition.

Until next time … good investing!


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This niche is VERY inviting …

As we often say, real estate is NOT an asset class.  There are MANY different niches you can invest in to earn big profits … both capital gains and cash flow.

And we’ve been watching an exciting niche which is starting to attract the attention of alert investors …

“Value-add investors are finding this sector ripe with opportunity, offering strong returns and having very little competition.”

           –    National Real Estate Investor, 5/6/19

Sound inviting?  It is!

It’s rehabbing resort properties.

If you’re a fan of the long-running TV show Hotel Impossible featuring Anthony Melchiorri, you know there are a LOT of hotels out there … and many aren’t run very well.

In fact, some fail and are sitting empty and dilapidated … waiting to be resurrected by an enterprising real estate entrepreneur.

So there’s a LOT of value-add opportunity in these often potentially beautiful properties.

And the opportunity isn’t limited to a particular geography … these opportunities are available in a variety of markets.

In fact, we recently enjoyed interviewing an experienced resort rehabber in New Jersey (yes, there’s even resort opportunity in New Jersey!)

We also got the inside scoop on a fascinating resort rehab project in Orlando, Florida.

The message is clear … there’s big opportunity in resort property … and it’s not just money.

Think about it …

Most investors don’t get excited about spending the night or a romantic weekend in their Section 8 rental home, C-class apartment, or mobile home park.

There’s nothing wrong with any of those.  They’re all great for cash flow.  But when you can get cash flow PLUS lifestyle benefits too?  That’s double prizes.

Imagine taking a tax-deductible trip to check in on your beautiful resort property … walking a lush vineyard or relaxing on the beach … and enjoying a fine meal while watching a gorgeous sunset.

Of course, before you get to enjoy all the amenities … there’s work to be done.

And fixing up an entire resort … well, that’s a heavy lift even for the most seasoned house-flipper.

But who says YOU need to do all the work?  Or ANY of it?

What if there’s a way for you to get in on the action without putting on your work boots and safety glasses?

There is.

One way is to let someone else “fatten the cow” … then you buy in to “milk it” for cash flow over the long-haul.  Listen to this episode to learn more about this approach.

If you’re accredited, then there’s a whole world of investment opportunities available to you … including investing passively into an experienced resort rehabber’s project.

Of course, if you’re super-ambitious and industrious … you can become an active resort-property re-habber.  Because it’s capital intensive, it’s an ideal activity to syndicate.

If you choose the active route … here are some things to think about.

One way to learn the business is to go to work or volunteer with an active resort re-habber.

But before you go that far, it’s probably smart to start with just talking to some folks in the business to see if it’s the right niche for you.

Fortunately, we’ll have an active resort property rehabber … along with a whole bunch of other really interesting niche investors … at our next Secrets of Successful Syndication seminar.  So if this all sounds interesting, make plans to join us.

But whether you choose active, passive, or syndication … take a look at the opportunities for profit and lifestyle in the resort property investing niche.

Resort properties are a great way to earn rental income from affluent people who would probably never rent their home from you.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Agriculture Investing – An Opportunity to Diversify Globally

Everyone needs a place to live … and everyone needs to eat.

Food is the original wealth. The world’s population is growing … and there are more mouths to feed every day!

Investors don’t have to limit themselves to properties with assets like houses, commercial buildings, or shopping malls.

You can harvest dollars from land that doesn’t have anything to do with tenants … and has everything to do with crops.

Agriculture investing is one of the most enduring and common sense investments there is.

Learn firsthand how money CAN grow on trees from a well-seasoned expert in international agricultural investing.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your food-for-thought host, Robert Helms
  • His food-loving co-host, Russell Gray
  • Expert agricultural investor, David Smith

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Digging into agriculture investing

We live in a big world with lots of mouths to feed … that means lots of crops … and lots of ways to profit.

In the past, agriculture investing was a difficult business to get in to on a small scale. If you didn’t have huge capital to buy huge plots of land … you were hugely out of luck.

But in the last several years, we’ve seen lots of folks who have figured out a way to let mom and pop play alongside them.

When it comes to investing in agriculture real estate, the pizza theory comes into play … fitting since we’re focusing on food.

Someone buys a large pizza. They take it to a party, cut it into slices, and sell each slice for a little bit of a markup.

At the end of the day, the person who brought the pizza makes a little bit of profit for their effort … and everybody gets to have a slice of something they might not be able to afford on their own.  

In agriculture, somebody buys a large parcel of farmland and puts all the operations and distribution channels in place.

Then, they divvy up a slice of the deal for a small markup to give many small investors the chance to play in that space. We see this as a great opportunity.

Everyone needs to eat

Crops come in all sizes, shapes, and degrees of durability … not to mention that different regions of the world have different opportunities.

In real estate, we often talk about getting the market right. Buying an investment property in the wrong market can get you into trouble.

But with crops, it’s not exactly the same.

It doesn’t really matter where the hungry mouths are … and it doesn’t matter where the food is grown.

Wherever the best farmland is … that’s where you want to buy. With today’s shipping technologies, you can get the food wherever it needs to go.

Another perk of agricultural investment? It is a staple. It meets a basic human need … just like housing.

Everyone needs a place to live … and everyone needs to eat.

And the population … the number of consumers demanding food … is steadily GROWING.

Crops and cash flow in Paraguay

David Smith is an experienced investor. He started in real estate, and for the last several years, he has been involved in agriculture in Latin America.  

After many years living and working in real estate in Latin America, David knew he needed to diversify.

After some due diligence, David decided to invest in agriculture.

“I was so interested in the business model,” David says. “It was a passive, turnkey investment not subject to the whims of the market. I really liked the security of it.”

David landed in Paraguay … a big farming country a bit off the radar … and invested in oranges.

Why oranges?

David says one of the biggest things that struck him about this particular crop was its durability. It also has a great distribution area.

Paraguay imports about 85 percent of all the citrus products consumed in the country.

“We can’t even meet the demand in Paraguay, let alone try to export yet,” David says.

Today, David is expanding to new segments of citrus fruits like lemons, limes, and sweet limes … ingredients that are important in the local diet.

Paraguay is traditionally a row crop producer … foods like soybeans, wheat, corn, and chia. It imports citrus from Brazil and buys greenhouse vegetables from Argentina.

Looking for ways to provide foods locally that are traditionally imported can open up lucrative niche opportunities in agriculture.

By providing a local alternative to imported foods, David provides a cheaper option for local grocers while creating income for his investors.

Going bigger with greenhouses

Like any investment niche, creative solutions can pay off … literally.

In Paraguay, one of the biggest challenges to growing vegetable is the heat.

“Paraguay gets very hot … and when I say very hot, I’m talking Tucson hot. It can be 120, 130, even 140 degrees in many locations,” David says.

The vegetables grown locally under normal farming conditions don’t grow very well. Their growth is stunted, their colors aren’t as bright, and they don’t taste as good as imported vegetables.

That’s where GREENHOUSES come into play.

By growing high-use … and typically high-priced … vegetables in greenhouses, David and his team can provide a local, tasty, and affordable solution to consumers.

This also provides a unique opportunity for investors. Instead of investing in land, individuals can purchase a greenhouse.

Each greenhouse is approximately 26,000 square feet … that’s a good amount of space for growing some green.

Greenhouses are also a popular investment because of their quick returns. Most investors will receive a return after just one year of making their investment.

“It’s a very stable business that runs 24/7,” David says.

And it’s a business that you don’t have to worry about managing. David and his team employ expert staff members that specialize in growing each crop.

These employees are even more motivated to provide extra levels of care, because they share in the profits.

“We offer them bonuses based upon produce amount, not net profit. In turn, they really put a loving touch into their work,” David says.

Determine if agriculture investment is right for you

Most Americans haven’t invested overseas.

There are a lot of reasons for this … but one of the biggest is not understanding how things operate on the ground in a different country.

That’s why having a local team managing the day-to-day of your investment is so powerful … especially in a niche like agriculture.

Just like any other investment opportunity, it’s important to do your due diligence.

David and his team help investors get a feel for agriculture by providing informative tours of their operation in Paraguay … and he also prepared a new, informative special report Citrus Fruits in Paraguay Investments that Grow Naturally.

Whether or not this particular opportunity is right for you, expanding your thinking to a bigger picture of real estate than just houses and hotels is important … and can yield lucrative results!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Live from the 17th Annual Summit at Sea

Ten amazing days … over 200 people … studying, sharing, learning, growing, and partying … that’s the Investor Summit at Sea!

For 17 years, the Summit at Sea has been the highlight of our year … and we’re excited to share a piece of it with YOU.

We’ve gathered some of real estate’s most successful investors, entrepreneurs, niche experts, and thought leaders to share their insights and key takeaways from the 2019 Summit.

Listen in and learn what these pros discovered … and how it could help you make smarter investment decisions.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your sailing host, Robert Helms
  • His flailing co-host, Russell Gray
  • Author and seasteading expert, Joe Quirk
  • Rich Dad, Poor Dad best-selling author, Robert Kiyosaki
  • The Apartment King, Brad Sumrok
  • Marketing mastermind, Kyle Wilson
  • The Godfather of Real Estate, Bob Helms
  • And SO MANY MORE!

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This is the Investor Summit at Sea

The annual Investor Summit at Sea is always a highlight of our year.

It’s a concentrated amount of time with some of real estate’s smartest people … all from different walks of life, different perspectives, and even different countries.

Every year, we learn to ask better questions … clarify our thinking … and do things differently.

Opportunities like the Summit at Sea are rare. In a short time frame, investors become friends, work out problems, and do some business.

We’d love EVERY one of our listeners to join us on the high seas … but we’d need a bigger boat!

So, we’ve brought together some of our fabulous faculty members to share their insights and key takeaways from the 2019 Summit at Sea.

A first glimpse at seasteading

Joe Quirk was a last minute addition to our faculty this year … and we’re so glad he came.

Joe’s real estate niche is seasteading … that’s right … homesteading the high seas.

It’s a novel idea. Joe says that … considering nearly half the world’s surface is unclaimed by any existing nation state … the technology is at hand to create startup countries on the ocean.

“It’s sort of a Silicon Valley sensibility brought to the problem of governance,” Joe says.

Instead of trying to change things from the inside, you create startups and do things better.

The first seastead has been floating off the coast of Thailand since early 2019 … and living there costs less than the average American home.

Joe and his team are ready to scale up … and scale up quickly. But he needs partners with real estate smarts to make it happen.

“We have marine engineers, economists, scientists, and medical experts. We have almost everyone we need, but we don’t have people that know how to structure and sell these things,” Joe says.

We view seasteading as a fascinating new frontier in real estate … and we’ll have more with Joe in the coming weeks.

Look at deals through a new lens

It’s Robert Kiyosaki’s sixth Summit at Sea … and we couldn’t be happier to welcome him back.

“I come to learn as well as to teach,” Robert says. “The Summit at Sea is basically immersion learning for real estate.”

Our port excursion this year was Grand Cayman. This area has undergone an interesting transition over the last few years.

Typically, people think of Grand Cayman as the place where rich people want to hide their money … but it is so much more!

Robert says he learned that how you look at a deal can really change the opportunities you see.

In the case of Grand Cayman, Robert had always looked at the market from the point of view of an investor … but he learned that sometimes it pays to try looking at a market from a developer’s point of view instead.

Through this lens, he could see that Grand Cayman is becoming a target for families. As the economic gap between rich and poor widens on other islands … crime rates are rising.

But Grand Cayman has the lowest crime rate in the Caribbean.

That fact coupled with high standards of living make it attractive to a new housing demographic … not just people looking for a tax shelter.

“There’s a deal of a lifetime every minute if you can see it,” Robert says.

Expand your team, increase your success

The Apartment King, Brad Sumrok, joins us for his third Summit at Sea.

Brad has made apartments his bread and butter … but that doesn’t mean he is done learning and growing.

“I keep expanding my team every time I’m here,” Brad says.

There’s no better way to grow your team than by spending a week and a half on a ship with 200 other people who specialize in a variety of asset classes.

So much of investment success is leveraging other people’s experience.

Last year, Brad says he connected with our good friend CPA Tom Wheelwright … and this year Tom saved Brad seven figures in taxes!

That’s a take away Brad took directly to the bank … and by surrounding yourself with smart people, you can do the same.

Master your marketing one step at a time

We’ve known Kyle Wilson for many years. He is a familiar face on the Summit at Sea … and always has great ideas for how to better market your real estate business.

“So many people are in the real estate business. They’re good at real estate. They’re good at finding markets and putting together teams, but not always solid in their marketing position,” Kyle says.

It’s easy to overcomplicate marketing. At the end of the day, marketing is simply connecting the dots for your customers.

Kyle says the key for real estate investors is to act in a strategic way. Don’t just throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and hope it sticks.

And remember that so much of real estate investing is built on relationships. Never let what seems like a good tactic get in the way of a good relationship.

Kyle is leaving the Summit with a list of ideas and action items … but cautions investors to take things one step at a time.

“You can’t do it all. Pick the one thing that’s screaming at you that will make the biggest difference and start there,” Kyle says.

A wealth of amazing opportunities

If anyone understands the benefits of an opportunity like the Investor Summit at Sea, it’s the Godfather of Real Estate himself … Bob Helms!

We’ve been hosting these cruise ship conferences for 17 years … and Bob has been with us every time.

With 40 years of real estate experience, Bob has seen amazing changes in the way investors make money and grow their opportunities.

“As I look at the group that is here with us today and the diversity of things they are involved in, I can’t help but have a big grin on my face,” Bob says. “The opportunities out there are amazing.”

Bob says his advice to investors is to educate themselves on different locations and asset classes. Find the niche that is right for you … and start building a winning team!

Get on the advance notice list for next year’s Summit at Sea by visiting our website … and listen in to the full episode to hear from even more experts and ideas from our week on the waves.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Resort Rehab Riches

Houses aren’t the only properties in need of a little facelift. Hotels often need their own dose of tender loving care.

Like any investment property, resorts come in all shapes and sizes … and some have major management issues.

When a hotel is poorly the managed the result isn’t pretty … it’s often downright ugly. But that means YOU have an opportunity to add value, improve cash flow, and build equity.

Listen in as we visit with two hospitality investors who find fun and profit as they renovate resort properties.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your resourceful host, Robert Helms
  • His relaxed co-host, Russell Gray
  • Accountable Equity’s professional resort investors, Josh and Melanie McCallen

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Resort rehab done right

Resort properties offer some of the highest returns on investment of any asset class. They are an attractive real estate deal … but one that can easily be mismanaged.

When our guests, Josh and Melanie McCallen, see an ugly, non-performing resort property, they don’t see a failure … they see an opportunity.

Josh and Melanie’s team at Accountable Equity renovates and revitalizes resorts. By creating higher-quality resorts, they create more income … and more value.

But to correctly rehab a resort, you need a deep understanding of AND passion for the hospitality industry.

Most of us don’t have that. So, partner with someone who does.

The beauty of Josh and Melanie’s business model is syndication. You can be a passive partner with an active investment and see phenomenal returns.

Resort rehab done right means everyone wins … investors, staff, and guests.

Finding a home in hospitality

When they graduated from college, Josh begged Melanie to buy a duplex as an investment. They’d live in one home and rent out the other.

“I had to let go of the three-bedroom, white picket fence idea in my mind, but right away I knew what I got into,” Melanie says.

Over their real estate career, Josh and Melanie found themselves taking part in resort experiences across the globe and partnering with developers of specialty properties.

Then the recession of ’08 happened. Suddenly, Josh and Melanie were sitting on a beat-up 1970s beachfront hotel.

It was too risky to tear it down and start new development … so they decided to rehab the property instead.

“That first project was 18 months of getting our teeth kicked in, but we learned that hospitality isn’t just about the building,” Josh says. “It’s a living, breathing guest experience.”

The couple realized that they LOVED interacting with guests and putting smiles on their faces. They fell in love with hospitality … and decided to make it their life’s mission.

The benefits of a resort investment

A rehabbed resort is one real estate investment where the person paying the rent doesn’t begrudge writing a check at all.

When you’re on vacation, you want to splurge. You want to enjoy yourself and your experience … and you’ll gladly pay more to do so.

Hospitality professionals know that the happier you make guests, the more enjoyable the visit will be.

As an investor, YOU know that happy guests mean high returns.

Resorts also offer a unique opportunity to increase revenue.

There are two ways to make more money … find more people to sell the same thing to or find more things to sell to the same people.

The hospitality business allows investors to do both with relative ease.

And when you invest in a resort property, you have the added benefit of being able to enjoy your own investment … by taking a vacation.

The success of a syndicated approach

Josh and Melanie started Accountable Equity as a syndicated approach to resort rehab.

“The first thing you must do when thinking about buying one of these properties is find great investor partners,” Josh says.

Each month, Josh and Melanie host an investor summit. They bring together current investors, new investors, and prospects to tour the property and get a firsthand look at hospitality in action.

These summits are an invaluable time to help investors see how revenue from different parts of the resort build off each other.

When a party arrives for a wedding, they’ll book rooms. Since they’re staying on site, they might want to play a round of golf or spend time at the spa. They’ll need to eat, so they’ll hit up the restaurant and tasting room.

“We call it a cascade of revenue,” Josh says.

Syndication is a powerful approach to every aspect of hospitality. Beyond investment, the syndication spirit encourages team members to seek out experts in every field.

“In our current project, we’re bringing in a top winemaker for the winery. We found a golf executive on his 111th course to help with ours. It’s all syndication,” Josh says.

Teaming up for transformation

Accountable Equity’s current project, Renault Winery Resort, shows just how powerful … and profitable … revitalizing resorts can be.

As the third federally registered winery in America, the property has been in the hospitality business for 155 years.

The former owner managed the resort for 40 years, but over time began to let standards deteriorate under stress.

“We found this amazing property that needed some TLC. But we were willing to take a fresh approach, look at it differently, consider its legacy, and see its next chapter,” Josh says.

The team also studied market drivers in hospitality to determine if the resort could evolve to meet current and future needs.

With a millennial movement toward authentic experiences, a historic property … complete with a Prohibition-era speakeasy … spells out attraction.

And with nearly half of weddings taking place at a destination over the course of three days, a resort that caters to making happy couples’ special day extra special can generate big business.

It’s no small undertaking. Managing and rehabbing 120,000 square feet of buildings and 242 acres of vineyards, a golf course, and a spa requires a winning team.

“Our staff and our investors are our family. We all depend on each other, and honestly, it’s an honor to be a part of,” Melanie says.

Take part in a unique real estate niche with resort rehab investment. Learn tips and valuable lessons for getting started in a special report from Accountable Equity, 10 Steps to Resort Rehab Riches.

No matter your market of interest or area of expertise, consider what you can learn from the rehab-and-syndicate model of luxury hospitality investing.

What value can you add to your properties … and how can you leverage others’ expertise to increase YOUR bottom line?


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Market Spotlight – Markets on the Move

People, businesses, and their money move around for lots of reasons. New jobs, better opportunities, tax incentives, high returns … the list goes on and on.

Savvy investors monitor these constant migrations. They look for patterns and take action to capitalize on opportunities and avoid risks.

All this movement affects supply and demand … especially for real estate. So today, we’re taking a look at some of the many factors moving markets today.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your savvy host, Robert Helms
  • His sassy co-host, Russell Gray

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Broadcasting since 1997 with over 300 episodes on iTunes!

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Read the signs in moving markets

We talk a lot about specific markets that are providing great opportunities for investors right now … but what about a year from now? Five years? Ten?

If you want to stay ahead of the game, you need to know how to read the signs of a market on the move.

It’s important to remember that it isn’t the property that makes you money … it’s the people.

A market is made up of people and businesses that have a relationship with real estate. That’s what makes it valuable.

The more tenants you have in properties that you own, the more positive CASHFLOW comes in … and the richer you become.

When you look at markets, the main thing you are looking at is supply and demand. Are people leaving? Are people coming in?

Then, you need to ask why people are moving in or moving out. There are always underlying factors that affect where and when people move.

As you work to identify these factors, you’ll begin to recognize patterns and principles … information that will enable you to spot emerging trends in other markets and get ahead of the pack.

The power of politics and trade

An article in Bloomberg Business Week points out the upside of a global downturn … juicy real estate deals.

Worldwide, many high-end home prices are being slashed by as much as 30 percent. This market information gives us some interesting clues.

These price cuts could indicate future opportunities … these markets could move!

If you’re looking to flip properties, you could purchase real estate now and have a good chance of selling it in the future for more … and not just because of the equity you put into it to add value.

Take a market like London, for example.

London has a reputation for being super expensive. But sellers of high-end homes are slashing their price tags.

When you do your research, you can discover some of the underlying factors contributing to this lower asking price. Recent changes to tax codes, Brexit, and a surge in populist thinking are just a few.

So, people with the means and ability to move to a more friendly jurisdiction will do it.

But London has a historically great real estate market … when things settle down, there’s a predictable chance prices and demand will shoot right back up.

Sydney, Australia, finds itself in a similar situation. The median home price is down 6 percent year over year since last year.

Australia has an economy that is largely driven by supplying commodities to China. But China is experiencing a slowdown, and Australian markets are feeling the impact.

When you’re looking at markets, you’re looking for clues … and international politics and trade can be powerful factors.

Hong Kong has been a strong real estate market … but like many parts of the world, real estate there is tied to U.S. dollars.

The market is down 10 percent since August of last year and is predicted to be down another 10 percent by 2020.

When you’re looking at moving markets, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Populous markets have a lot of drivers … and in Hong Kong those drivers have caused prices to go down quickly. That doesn’t mean they won’t go back up.

Hong Kong is generally considered to be very safe for property rights, personal liberty, and financial stability. It’s an economic capital in that part of the world.

All of these factors are clues that tell the smart real estate investor it might be worth digging deeper to determine whether a market has a good chance of turning upward.

If it does, a temporary downturn can be a lasting opportunity.

Clue in on taxes

There are plenty of markets on the move within the United States … and a lot of that has to do with taxes.

Any time you have changes in the tax code, you will see changes in the way people invest their money. It’s an essential clue in identifying market trends.

New York City is the perfect example.

For the first time in a long time, the median price of condominiums in Manhattan has dropped below $1 million. That’s DOWN 6 percent from a year ago.

Under the previous tax code, you could deduct your state and local taxes from your federal income tax.

If you lived in a high-tax state like New York, you could mitigate a lot of those high taxes by simply deducting them from your federal liabilities. You can’t anymore.

As a result, markets like New York City and California’s Silicon Valley are moving down … and low-tax jurisdictions like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Florida are moving up.

Learn from moving markets

You might never invest in London, Sydney, Hong Kong, or New York … but you CAN learn a lot by looking at why those markets are moving.

Markets move in different direction for different reasons. The more you understand, the more easily you can identify patterns in the trends occurring in your market of choice.

Studying markets on the move is an invitation for you to do the research. A market that works for one investor doesn’t necessarily work for another.

Markets have personalities … just like people.

You wouldn’t marry somebody just because they were the first person you talked to or because your best friend thinks they’re interesting.

You decide on your own investment life … where you want to be, and what you want to be doing.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Salt Lake City

Salt Lake City

 

The Beehive State is BOOMING. Get in on a record-breaking growth cycle and reap high returns in this stable market.

 

When pioneers first settled in the Salt Lake Valley they were greeted by a wide expanse of empty desert … but today, the Beehive State is BOOMING in every way.

Utah has claimed the title of fastest-growing population in the country from 2010 through 2018 and has steadily high birth rates.

The state has also consistently had the fastest growing labor force of any state since January 2010. Rapid business growth in the corridor south of the Great Salt Lake has brought thousands of workers to the state.

More workers mean more consumer spending … and more need for real estate.

The potential for long-term, reliable tenants is high. Utah’s workforce is more educated on average than the rest of the United States.

Salt Lake City is a Rocky Mountain hub for travel, entertainment, and business.

A $3.6 billion first phase of construction on a new Salt Lake City International Airport opens in late 2020. When construction is completed, the airport will be an updated and enlarged transportation hub with state-of-the-art facilities.

From Salt Lake City, individuals have easy access to Utah’s 14 world class ski resorts and five national parks.

Music lovers can enjoy Broadway shows at the Eccles Theater or visit Abravanel Hall, the home of the Utah Symphony. Sports fans can catch a Utah Jazz game at Vivint Smart Home Arena.

Shoppers find retail escape by visiting the hundreds of storefronts that make up City Creek Center and The Gateway.

With generous tax incentives, many major corporations call the Salt Lake Valley home … and more are moving in every day.

Salt Lake City’s financial district hosts Wells Fargo Bank, American Express, Goldman Sachs and Co., and Fidelity Brokerage Services.

The Silicon Slopes tech movement is expanding, with global tech companies like Adobe, EMC, Micron, Intel, Facebook, and Microsoft operating from Salt Lake City headquarters.

With Amazon and UPS moving thousands of workers to the Salt Lake area, housing is in demand … and that demand is growing every day.

Take advantage of record-breaking growth and reap in Rocky Mountain-sized returns.

Discover whether Salt Lake City, Utah is right for your next real estate investment. Get started with our selection of helpful resources …

Radio Shows

Reports and Articles

Market Field Trips & Property Tours

  • Coming Soon!

Boots-on-the-Ground Teams

Clues in The News

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