From Disney World to Bizarro World …

Posted by on July 15, 2019 · Leave a Comment 

The real estate story behind Walt Disney World in Florida has a valuable lesson for investors today … and it’s not what you think.

If you’re unfamiliar, Walt Disney decided to create a new and improved East Coast version of his epic California Disneyland. But he needed land … LOTS of it.

So he went to Florida.

By then, Disney was a household name and the success of Disneyland was well known. This created a problem for Disney.

If local landowners realized Disney was behind the assemblage of land needed to build another park, it could take a lot more time and money to get the project done.

So even when the land deal hit the news in May 1965, Disney waited months to announce his plan to build Disney World.

The obvious lesson is to avoid showing deep pockets when the other party has leverage.

But that’s not why we’re talking about it today.

There’s something else going on in the world … something we’ve been watching for some time … that could become one of the biggest financial stories in the last 50 years.

So while financial reporters hang dutifully on every word that proceeds out of the mouth of Jerome Powell today…

… there’s another voice in the marketplace only a few nut jobs (like us) are paying attention to.

Gold. And yes, this matters to real estate investors.

But it’s not what gold is doing in response to what the Fed says. It’s about what gold is saying about the state of the system that the Fed is not.

Of course, there are implications for you and your investments … real estate and otherwise.

The quandary for pundits everywhere is why the Fed is considering lowering interest rates in the midst of “the greatest economy ever”.

Typically, interest rates are lowered to stimulate a sluggish economy.

Sure, it’s possible the economy could be far less robust than claimed.

You probably know this is now officially the longest “recovery” on record … so perhaps a preemptive boost is a good idea.

Maybe the Fed is simply yielding to President Trump’s pleas to go tit for tat with those pesky currency manipulators … to help keep America’s exporters competitive.

If you read the financial news, it’s easy to get lost in all the conjecture surrounding the dollar, the Fed, the economy, and interest rates.

But while people are bickering about political intervention in monetary policy, and what it all means to asset values …

… central banks around the world have been quietly stocking up on gold at the fastest pace in 50 years.

So what?

Think of Wall Street and insider trading. When insiders of a corporation buy or sell … it’s often because they know something others don’t.

Savvy stock traders watch these moves for clues about the future of the stock.

When it comes to money … or more accurately, currency … you can’t get much more “inside” than central banks.

It’s reasonable to think they know something.

Most “investors” look at gold as a trading vehicle … something to buy and sell in order to create currency “profits” in the same way a flipper trades houses to generate currency profits.

But central banks can print currency … at next to no cost. They don’t need to trade gold or anything else to generate currency. They can print all they want.

Think about that.

Could it be gold has another role in international finance?

Apparently, China and Russia think so. Along with Poland, Hungary and Malaysia … to name just a few. The list is long.

Another notable advocate for putting gold back in money is Judy Shelton. Shelton is President Trump’s latest nomination to the Federal Reserve Board.

It’s also notable that of ALL the things Fed Chair Jerome Powell could say in his limited testimony to Congress, he chose to warn them against a return to the gold standard.

Maybe it’s just us, but reminds us of this admonition from the Wizard of Oz …

“Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”

So what does all that have to do with Disney?

Remember, Disney wanted to accumulate land without anyone realizing what he was really up to. Everyone just looked at each deal as a one-off.

Disney and his team were careful to be sure no one saw the master plan until he unveiled it.

(Of course, people playing close attention figured it out … but by the time the masses knew, the deal was done).

But think about this …

If YOU had an unlimited credit card, no ethics, and knew you were about to go bankrupt … might you use your credit to buy and stash things of real value before the card is shut off?

If the players in the casino know the house is about to go bust, there’s a mad dash to cash in the soon-to-be-worthless chips.

Just remember, these are big, lumbering central banks and a worldwide financial system. “Soon” can take months … or years.

So no one knows exactly when the tipping point comes. It’s slow at first … and then all at once.

We’ve been watching this story develop since we first wrote about it in our Real Asset Investing report in 2013.

We discuss it in more detail in the videos of our more recent Future of Money and Wealth conference.

It’s clear there’s SOMETHING going on …

The ultimate currency insiders are aggressively acquiring gold. Nations who had entrusted their gold to third parties are steadily repatriating. Perhaps not so trusting anymore?

Lots of things going on geo-politically have no apparent rhyme or reason, until you look past the chatter about democracy and human rights … and just follow the gold and oil.

Richard Nixon shocked the world on August 15, 1971 when he changed the entire global monetary system in a “temporary” defense of the dollar.

Gold and oil spiked as the dollar collapsed. Interest rates were eventually hiked to over 20% to save the dollar. Every individual and business on the planet was affected.

Some people lost fortunes while others made them. The difference was (and still is) awareness, preparation, and a willingness to act when others stand paralyzed.

Some people noticed the exploding debt of the 60’s, the silver coming out of the coins in 1964, and the French President’s public warning about misplaced faith in the U.S. dollar.

People paying attention back then positioned themselves to prosper in spite of … or more accurately, because of the turmoil.

That’s why we attend and produce investor mastermind events like the New Orleans Investment Conference and the Investor Summit at Sea™.

It’s where we talk with alert investors and savvy thought leaders … searching for actionable intelligence in a noisy, chaotic world.

Though largely ignored and misunderstood by many on Main Street, there’s a very public and aggressive global search for alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

Whether it’s gold, crypto, the yuan, or something else … if and when a viable alternative to the dollar is embraced by the rest of the world …

… Americans could well be faced with spiking interest rates (the Fed will lose control), a collapsing dollar, rising asset prices in dollar terms (inflation), falling values in real terms, and a contracting economy (recession).

Those with low fixed-rate debt, real assets (including gold), cash-flow producing investments (like rental property), are likely to be big winners.

The world didn’t END when Nixon reset the system. It just changed.

So this isn’t doom and gloom … it’s hope and opportunity … IF you’re among the aware, prepared, and prone to act.

After all, if you own solidly cash-flowing properties in affordable markets, while holding a chunk of your liquid reserves in gold (with no counter-party risk) …

… and nothing happens, how are you worse off?

But if gold is the canary in the coal mine signaling that the Wizards are up to something, it might be smart to be hedged.

Until next time … good investing!

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Jacksonville

Posted by on March 1, 2019 · Leave a Comment 

Jacksonville

 

Florida’s most populous city is growing in every way. Affordable prices and a large tenant base make Jacksonville real estate a great source of CASH FLOW.

 

Jacksonville is the LARGEST CITY by land area in the contiguous United States … and it has the PEOPLE to match!

Since the 2000s, the population of Jacksonville has been inching steadily toward 1 million residents. That number is expected to increase exponentially with a population growth rate that is more than double that of the entire U.S.

From 2010 to 2017, Jacksonville’s population increased by an incredible estimated 8.5 percent, according to the Census Bureau.

With such a large population and landmass comes a large tenant pool. In fact, as of 2019, about 44 percent of the city’s current residents were renters … and that number is expected to remain stable, which means a HUGE opportunity for real estate investors.

The tenant pool is also largely stable and reliable. Employment stats mirror the population, with a job growth rate that in 2019 was 82 percent higher than the national average.

This is NOT the typical “Florida retirement community” you may be picturing in your mind.

Many corporations and their employees call Jacksonville home … including Amazon, IKEA, Maxwell House, and Bank of America … and more move to the area every day.

In fact, Forbes ranks Jacksonville as the 7th best city for future job growth and the 8th biggest city with the fastest growing economy.

Once they arrive, residents find an area with year-round sunshine, open space, and low taxes … not to mention that the current market is one of the most AFFORDABLE in the country.

The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in 2019 is approximately $1,050. And the median price of a Jacksonville investment property is about $163,000 … significantly lower than the rest of the United States.

But reports show that homes for sale in the area are projected to slowly increase in price … so sooner is better than later to buy and hold properties for large investment returns.

The numbers aren’t the only thing that make the Jacksonville market an attractive place to both live and invest.

Don’t forget about the pristine beaches, world-class museums, and lively entertainment.

Discover 840 square miles of investment opportunity and potential cash flow in Jacksonville, Florida! Learn more about the Jacksonville area through the list of helpful resources below.

Radio Shows

Reports & Articles

Market Field Trips & Property Tours

  • Coming Soon!

Boots-on-the-Ground Teams

Clues in The News

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Market Spotlight – Jacksonville, Florida

Posted by on February 26, 2019 · Leave a Comment 

It’s the first week of our market spotlight series … and we’re starting with a city that has been on our radar for a while … Jacksonville, Florida!

There’s a lot to like about this Northeast Florida city. To start, it’s the fourth largest economy in Florida and has the largest population in the state … which means HUGE opportunities for real estate investors.

Listen in as we visit with some of our favorite boots-on-the-ground experts and explore all Jacksonville has to offer.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your sunshine-loving host, Robert Helms
  • His sunny-side-over co-host, Russell Gray
  • President and co-founder of Southern Impression Homes, Chris Funk
  • General manager of Southern Impression Homes, Chandler Janger

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Why Jacksonville?

There are so many places for you to invest in real estate. So, for the next few weeks we are highlighting some of the markets we find interesting this year.

Jacksonville, Florida, is a place  we have been looking at for a long time because there are SO MANY reasons to like it.

Jacksonville has the largest population in Florida and the fourth largest economy. And did we mention it’s a no-income-tax state?

Florida is the No. 1 location that baby boomers choose to retire in, but the year-round sun attracts younger tenants too. Variety and diversity is the name of the game.

Whether you’re a single-family-home investor or are interested in multifamily properties or even vacation ownership, Jacksonville is full of possibilities.

Opportunities for high returns in new construction

Our guest today is Chris Funk of Southern Impression Homes. Chris started out in the dry-cleaning business … and then the ’08 crash happened.

Like many business owners, Chris lost about 20 percent of his revenue. He needed to find a new source of cashflow. What he found was real estate.

Ultimately, Chris bought up about 25 homes. He bought them cheap, renovated them, and rented them out. The cash came in … and Chris was hooked.

He expanded his portfolio and soon went from buying 50 houses a year to buying 50 houses a month!

The biggest challenge for Chris was finding good property management, so he decided to do it himself.

Before he knew it, Chris was running a large property management company and expanding from renovations to land purchasing and new construction in Jacksonville.

Chris says that renovating older homes is still his bread and butter, but he realized there are great opportunities for profits from new construction.

New homes come with limited maintenance costs, and when you build from the ground up, you have 100 percent control over every aspect of the build.

New construction is often more attractive to tenants … much of the growing labor force in Jacksonville has chosen to settle in new construction.

And more interested potential tenants means properties are more attractive to investors like you.

It’s this aspect of business that makes Chris’ approach to the market unique. Instead of focusing on selling to individual owner-occupants, Chris tries to sell most of his inventory to investors.

“Investors have been our lifeblood ever since we started in our real estate business,” Chris says. “We’re investors ourselves, and we built our property management company as a company that is built by investors for investors.”

Chris says he doesn’t want to just sell a house and go away. He wants to become part of the investor’s team on the ground and manage their assets … all of them!

It’s a long-term opportunity instead of a one-time sell. And investors who work with Chris do more business, more often.

Investment opportunity in Jacksonville isn’t confined to single-family homes. Chris knows this and builds new duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes as well.

Like many other markets, the cash-on-cash yield for a multifamily property is higher than that for a single-family home … but you do give up some appreciation.

One of the most attractive elements of the Jacksonville market is affordability. Single-family homes range from $150,000 to about $200,000. The highest priced fourplexes clock in at about $550,000.

What investors need to know

Jacksonville … like the rest of the sunshine state … has had double digit population growth every year since the census was created.

It’s not a town full of retirees either. Young professionals settle there to take advantage of affordable prices and job opportunities.

The city has a booming financial district with major corporations like Fidelity National Title, Ameris Bank, and Wells Fargo.

There’s also a thriving industrial sector. Companies from Coach to Mercedes and FedEx have major distribution centers in the metro area.

The United States military maintains a large presence in Jacksonville … and they are expanding their ranks.

From a tenant perspective, Southern Impression Homes General Manager Chandler Janger says this means the average resident is middle to upper middle working class … largely reliable and looking for a great home at a great price.

By keeping property management in-house, Southern Impression Homes can give investors in-depth insight into each of their properties. An online portal offers instant access to occupancy, payment, and tenant information.

Owners are paid electronically the month after rent collection and receive a monthly statement broken down by property.

Chandler says if there’s one thing investors should know, it’s that communication is key. In property management, there are a lot of moving parts … clear communication makes everyone’s job easier.

With great teams in place on the ground and beautiful properties, Jacksonville is a market worth looking into.

To discover if Jacksonville is a good fit for your portfolio, check out the Jacksonville Market Report prepared by Chris and his team at Southern Impression Homes.

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Jacksonville Market Report

Posted by on February 19, 2019 · Leave a Comment 

Jacksonville Market Report

 

Affordable rates, a thriving economy, and world-class beaches … it’s a property investment paradise!

Jacksonville, Florida, is 840 square miles of investment opportunity. It’s the largest city by land area in the continental U.S. and Florida’s most populous metro.

It’s not just the city that’s big. Florida’s economy is the 4th largest in the U.S. … and in Jacksonville, job growth is off the charts!

That means a large pool of stable tenants for you to choose from … 44 percent of the city’s residents are renters, to be exact.

In this special report, discover the many reasons Jacksonville is great for cash flow, including:

  • Affordable home prices and rental rates
  • Year-round sunshine, open space, and low taxes
  • A growing population
  • A thriving economy
  • And more!

Find a piece of investment paradise in Jacksonville!

Simply fill out the form below to access the Jacksonville Market Report.

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Southern Impression Homes – Chris Funk

Posted by on February 18, 2019 · Leave a Comment 

Southern Impression Homes – Chris Funk

 

Great Market. Brand New Property. Strong Cash Flow. Affordable Price. Top Property Management Team.

In today’s changing real estate market, it’s hard to get inventory at a price that gives you a good cash flow yield.

Chris Funk’s team has the answer …

Build-to-Rent your own investment property!

Chris Funk and his team entered the real estate game like many investors … acquiring and renovating foreclosed homes after the ’08 crash.  As the economy recovered it become harder and harder to get bargains on their acquisitions.

So they expanded into development and new construction … and Southern Impression Homes was born.

Now you can ride their coattails into developing your own portfolio of single family homes.

Chris knows the success that comes from a good real estate investment. He wants his investors to get a great property for a great deal in a great market.

While their primary market is Jacksonville, Florida … Chris’ team is also building and managing portfolios for investors throughout Northeast Florida and in Atlanta, Georgia.

The market in Northeast Florida is BOOMING. Chris’ team is your key to success!  Chris and his team have locked up prime land at prices that allow them to pass those savings onto investors …

What exactly does this mean for you?

You can get a NEW property that cash flows just as well (maybe even better) than existing, older properties.

Better cash flow. Better tenants. And less maintenance!

PLUS their sister company, SunCoast Property Management, is renowned for their top class property management.  And with over 2,000 properties under management … You better believe they’ve got their operations dialed.

Jump on better returns without settling for lower quality.

Simply fill out the form below … And a Southern Impression Homes team member will be in touch!

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Profitable Niches – Lifestyle Investing

Posted by on May 14, 2018 · Leave a Comment 

You may have heard that it’s bad to mix business with pleasure. But, when it comes to lifestyle investing, part of the fun is owning property in a place you love.

Yes, it is possible to make lifestyle investing make sense for you … as long as you follow some important guidelines to line up the numbers, location, and opportunity.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:

  • Your vacation ready host, Robert Helms
  • His in dire need of vacation co-host, Russell Gray
  • Guest, Nick Rohrbach, from The Grove Resort and Spa in Orlando, Florida

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Why a lifestyle investment might be a good fit

Life is too short to be involved in an asset class you don’t enjoy. Too many times in real estate, we get hung up on the ROI and let it rule the day. Lifestyle investing spices things up by adding personal enjoyment and personal use into the mix.

With the right strategy, you can tap into a FANTASTIC opportunity for growth. Premium properties fetch a premium price from renters and vacationers. Of course, you’ll also be able to enjoy the property with your family and friends.

We’ve all been on vacation and experienced that “I never want to leave” feeling. But remember, just because a place is nice to visit doesn’t mean it makes sense from an investment point of view. Here are a few recommendations to keep in mind.

 

  • Know the market

 

As with any real estate investment, your research into the market will be worth its weight in gold. This is especially true for lifestyle investing where the durability of rent, the ability to fill occupancy, and the property’s long-term profitability will be the difference between a fun investment and a bust.

With a good location, property, and market your investment has the opportunity to weather downturns. People in higher income brackets can afford to go on vacation even if the economy is down.

 

  • Bring on a stellar management team

 

The difference between a fun, hands-off lifestyle investment that you’ll love visiting and a drag is a good management team. Property management comes at a higher cost than single-family homes … sometimes upwards of 50 percent … but it gives you peace of mind AND access to amenities that delight and excite high-end vacationers and renters.

Your management team will handle all the bookings, and they have access to wholesale outlets such as Travelocity, Hotwire, Priceline … all the big names people use to get their vacation rentals.

And bonus! When things break, they fix them.

Opportunities abound in Orlando

Orlando, Florida, is the #1 traveled to place in the world. Thanks to Disney World, Universal Studios, and a THRIVING convention market, there’s no end of things to do for business travelers and families. And did we mention it’s a no income tax state?

We could go on and on about the many reasons why Florida is a consistently hot market and one of our favorite places to visit:

  • It’s centrally located to beaches
  • It has access to direct flights out of many places from the beautiful Orlando airport
  • The weather and attractions are top-tier
  • Convention business is strong and growing

Nobody knows this better than Nick Rohrbach, our guest from The Grove Resort and Spa.

Beyond tourism, Florida has a vibrant, booming economy. “There are 19 [amusement or theme] parks in central Florida alone,” Nick says. “Medical City is booming, we have one of the largest universities in the country, University of Central Florida, and over 150 VA hospitals.”

Plus, unlike many destinations, Orlando is not seasonal. The average occupancy is about 75 percent year round. Even during the economic recession in 2009, average occupancy never fell below 60 percent.

All of these elements make Orlando a place you might want to keep your eye on.

Filling a niche in the lifestyle investing market

When you’re looking for a lifestyle investment, one of the important questions you need to answer is how a particular property sets itself apart from competitors.

Florida’s economy is one of the reasons The Grove is such a unique opportunity. Rohrbach explains that the project was originally built in 2007, 2008, and 2009, and all the units were sold to UK investors without closing on a transaction.

While all the units were structurally built, only 184 condos were completed. With some additional cash, amenities, and building out the insides, these units are essentially brand new.

The new ownership at The Grove Resort and Spa has a couple strategies to fill a niche in Orlando:

  • Amazing amenities including restaurants, 800 sq. ft. of convention space, and a newly opened water park.
  • Spacious condos with 2-3 bedrooms perfect for families.
  • Close proximity to Disney World … only 3 miles away!

For potential investors and owners, there are plenty of opportunities as well. The Grove has a stellar management company that keeps the property looking fantastic, takes care of you and any guests, and manages all the bookings, repairs, and maintenance.

“The key is really the management,” Nick says. “When you talk about having everything in place for lifestyle turnkey investing, you need that professional management so you don’t have to deal with anything. The guest experience is very important.”

Not only that, but The Grove is continuing to expand, with 878 total units coming online at completion. Only 450 rooms are available now, and they’re at 100 percent occupancy! As demand goes up, so will rates … and cash flow from a potential investment.

Make sure the deal works for you

Lifestyle investing can sound like a dream come true, but it still has to make financial sense for you.

Look at a market that appeals to you personally, and then start running some numbers.

For instance, syndication might be the right way to go. You could get creative and discover investment opportunities in a few locations so you’ll have access to a bunch of prime vacation spots.

Blurring the line between a pure ROI, detached investment and something you get to enjoy too doesn’t have to be out of reach. If the numbers, market, and property make sense, don’t be afraid to go for it!

Want to know more about turnkey lifestyle in Orlando, Florida, and things to avoid in the marketplace? Send an email to lifestyle@realestateguysradio.com. We’ll hook you up with a special report with all the details. 

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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When it rains, it pours …

Posted by on September 20, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

If you’re a mass consumer of financial punditry as we are, you’ve probably heard the term “black swan”. 

In the context of investing, a black swan is some completely unexpected event that has a substantial impact on financial markets and investors …

… like back-to-back mega-hurricanes which wreak many hundreds of billions of dollars of damage.

Even as the millions of affected people are working through the enormous task of sorting through the damage and cleaning up the mess …

… investors far away from the stricken areas are assessing the potential ramifications of these huge and unexpected events.

As we discussed in a recent broadcast, there’s certainly opportunity and a role for investors to play in helping these areas bounce back from disaster.

But it could be the affliction isn’t purely physical.

Consider this recent CNBC headline … 

Harvey’s hit to mortgages could be four times worse than predicted—and then there’s Irma

“As many as 300,000 borrowers could become delinquent on their loans after Hurricane Harvey …”

“The sheer volume of homes hit by Hurricane Irma will likely cause an increase in mortgage delinquencies as well …”

The article references a report produced by Black Knight Financial Services … so we took a look and found these notable excerpts:

“More than 3.1 million properties are now included in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas, representing approximately $517 billion in unpaid principal balances.”

“Harvey-related disaster areas held 1.18 million properties – more than twice as many as with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – with a combined unpaid principal balance of $179 billion.”

That’s $696 billion of mortgages that could potentially go bad because property owners are underinsured, have negative equity, or are owned by displaced people in financial distress.

For context, according to this 2007 article from Associated Press:

“Subprime mortgages totaled $600 billion last year [2006], accounting for about one-fifth of the U.S. home loan market. An estimated $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages are currently outstanding.”

In other words, the value of outstanding mortgages on ONLY those properties inside the disaster areas is over half of what the TOTAL of ALL subprime mortgages were leading into the 2008 financial crisis.

But, you say, all those mortgages aren’t sub-prime.  Prime borrowers wouldn’t walk on their mortgages … potentially triggering another debt crisis … would they?

Of course, no one knows what property owners affected by the CURRENT crisis will do … or how helpful banks and the government will be this time …

… but thanks to a research report by the National Bureau of Economic Research, we know the REAL reason people defaulted on their mortgages during the 2008 crisis was … lack of equity.

“ … data show that the crisis was not solely, or even primarily, a subprime sector event.”

“… but … a much bigger and broader event dominated by prime borrowers …”

“Current LTV is a powerful predictor of home loss, regardless of borrower type.” (LTV is loan-to-value)

“… the role of negative equity remains very powerful.”

Basically, people who own underwater properties (no pun intended … okay, maybe a little intentional) are more likely to walk on their mortgages.

So if that’s true, and these afflicted area properties lose substantial value, it’s possible the next “storm” will be a surge of bad mortgages … to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.

In other words, it’s not just the mortgages on PHYSICALLY damaged properties, but ALL properties in the region whose values are dragged down …

… the way prime borrowers’ properties were dragged down by sub-prime borrowers’ foreclosures in 2008.

Does this mean another bad mortgage fueled financial crisis is looming?

That’s hard to say.  If Wall Street has once again levered to the moon and issued trillions in derivatives against these mortgages, then things could get ugly.

However, this potential crisis is different than last time …

One major problem leading up to the 2008 financial crisis was household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income was sky high.

Back then, borrowers across the United States were tapped out.

Sub-prime borrowers were at the margin.  So when teaser rate loans reset higher, mortgage payments became unaffordable and sub-prime borrowers defaulted.

But these defaults were scattered over many markets because it wasn’t a geographic problem … it was demographic. So MANY markets were affected.

When prices fell, they took the values of prime borrowers’ properties with them … and prime borrowers began to default too … not because of affordability, but because of lack of equity.

Each new default put more downward pressure on home values, eroding more equity, and drawing more prime borrowers into default.

Today, at least according to this chart from the St Louis Fed, debt service to income is much lower.

Of course, if interest rates rise, wages fall, or inflation erodes purchasing power,  once again, borrowers at the margin could default … and that could trigger widespread defaults and collapsing prices.

But that’s a worry for a different day. 

As far as the fallout from these hurricanes, our bet is defaults and falling values are likely to happen primarily only in the affected areas.

However, we also suspect any spike in defaults is likely to be mitigated quickly because of the lessons gleaned from 2008.

Lenders know playing hardball with distressed borrowers only makes the problem worse. We’re guessing they’ll be much more flexible with loan workouts and short sales this time.

And because this is a physical disaster, not a financial disaster … government aid is likely to be fast and generous … at least on behalf of homeowners.

Plus, Uncle Sam knows if they don’t put out the fire fast, it could quickly spread and burn up their banker buddies.  We doubt they’ll let that happen.

Better to bail the bankers out BEFORE an implosion by helping afflicted property owners and preventing price crushing foreclosures.

So … with all that said, we think there could be some serious TEMPORARY downward pressure on prices …

…and opportunities for private investors to step in with fresh funds, pick up some bargains, and help distressed property owners out of untenable situations.

That’s because owners of investment properties may not get the same level of help as owner-occupants.  They’ll need to turn to private capital for assistance.

Fortunately, both Houston and most of the affected markets in Florida were strong investment markets before the disasters.

And in spite of the horrific damage, most of the basic market fundamentals remain unchanged.  So when rebuilt, they’ll probably solid investment markets.

Even better, these areas are likely to see a spike in economic activity as money is invested in reconstruction.  A lot of money will be pouring into these regions.

So we’re watching these areas carefully … because when the window of acquisition opportunity opens, it may only last for a short while.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Yet another BRUTAL storm forming …

Posted by on September 13, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

And the hits just keep on coming …

We know you’d like investing to be simple and drama free.  We do too.

But while real estate investing itself is a simple activity … the economics of real estate investing has become more complex.

There’s a LOT going on in the world.   Some things interconnect by cause, and others by effect … meaning they don’t appear to be related, but then converge.

As Jim Rickards points out repeatedly … economies and ecologies are complex systems.  They are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.

But even though no one can say with certainty what will happen, it’s still important to take precautions when it’s clear SOMETHING BIG is coming …

… just as Floridians watched Irma and prepared, not knowing fully what to expect.  Better to be prepared and not have a disaster than vice versa.

So let’s take a look at what’s forming on the horizon …

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

While the total financial and human impact of these back-to-back disasters is yet to be calculated, one thing’s for sure …  it’s going to be expensive.

Short term disruptions to gas prices and orange futures aside, disasters like these redirect HUGE amounts of capital … which has a ripple effect.

For example, money insurance companies might otherwise put into financing NEW multi-family apartments in other markets …

… will now pour into re-building properties damaged and destroyed in Houston and Florida.

Federal money which might have been focused on infrastructure spending or tax cuts will also be redirected to damage recovery.

And it’s likely the demand for construction labor and supplies will rise, driving up total construction costs in many markets … not just those affected by the storms.

That’s because just as demand for concrete in China creates price increases in the U.S. … the demand for reconstruction resources will probably be felt throughout the United States.

Distressed inventory

Just like the financial disaster of 2008, there may be many problem properties coming out of all this … because many weren’t insured for flood damage.

Federal aid may help some of those homeowners.  It’s less likely such relief is offered to investors who were under-insured.

While it’s no fun to profit from someone else’s loss, there’s a role for profit-seeking capital to play in repairing damaged communities.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see tax breaks, loan subsidies or other incentives offered to entice investment capital to flow into affected markets … like when New Orleans was hit by Hurricane Katrina.

The Debt Ceiling  

In other news, President Trump and Congress managed to get the debt ceiling temporarily increased … while raising the prospect of simply eliminating it all together.

Talk about calling a spade a spade.  The ceiling hasn’t capped spending … ever.

Now billions of dollars are ear-marked for hurricane relief, and everyone can take a short break from “worrying” Uncle Sam might default on his debt.

So it looks like it’s back to over-spending as usual. Not surprisingly, the dollar’s year-long fall has resumed velocity.  

Then again … maybe the dollar’s fall (and gold’s rise) is part of a bigger story which has nothing to do with U.S. business-as-usual deficit spending …

Gold-backed yuan already finding friends

As we recently noted, China announced plans to settle its oil trade in yuan.

And to entice sellers to accept yuan, the Chinese are backing it with that “barbarous relic” … gold.

Days later, oil-rich Venezuela announced they’d start using yuan … and other currencies … to “free us from the dollar.”

It’s no surprise Venezuela would jump at this.  After all, just two weeks earlier President Trump signed an executive order sanctioning Venezuela … whose economy is 95% oil.

But as we note in our Real Asset Investing report, China began its plan to supplant the dollar way back in 2010.  So none of this is new.

And the first country to sign a bilateral trade agreement to “renounce the U.S. dollar” was … wait for it … Russia … followed by Brazil, Australia, and a LONG list of others.

We think this is a HUGE story that few in mainstream financial media are covering.  But we are.

In fact, we’re putting together an emergency conference call with Brien Lundin and Chris Martenson to discuss the ramifications … so stay tuned for that!

Is the U.S. dollar doomed?

This is the big WHY IT MATTERS … especially for Americans and everyone denominating wealth in American dollars.

Like Hurricane Irma, no one can say exactly if, when, or how disaster will strike.  And it’s possible the winds will change and the storm will miss your portfolio.

But what if it doesn’t?  Right now, the winds appear to be headed your way.

Are YOU ready?  Are you getting ready?  Many people don’t even know what ready looks like.  That was us 10 years ago.

It’s a complex problem so there’s no simple solution.  If there was, it probably wouldn’t be a problem.

Peter Schiff has been warning about this for years. As has Robert Kiyosaki, Richard Duncan, Simon Black, Chris Martenson, Jim Rickards, David Stockman … and the list goes on and on.

Each has their own ideas about when … and how to prepare.

There’s no one-size-fits all answer because everyone’s situation, portfolio, investing IQ, advisory network, access to deals, and investment objectives are different.

MISSION: POSSIBLE

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to get informed, educated, connected and activated … as quickly as possible.

And if you think getting educated is time consuming and expensive … it’s nothing compared to being ignorant and apathetic.

When storm clouds form on the horizon, some decide to pay attention and take pre-emptive steps.  There’s no guarantee of safety, but their odds are better.

Others only hope for the best, but don’t prepare for the worst.  Yet the higher the stakes, the more important it is to be preemptively cautious.

The storm warnings are loud and clear … for everyone paying attention.

But storms often approach slowly … and because most blow over … it’s easy (yet dangerous) to assume every storm will.

Slowly at first … then all at once

Longtime listeners know we’ve been watching this whole story unfold for years.

We talked about the very real possibility of China making a run at reserve currency status almost two years ago.  We said then we’d keep you informed and so we are.

Now things are picking up speed.  So if you’re new or haven’t been all that interested … NOW is the time to accelerate your understanding.

If you’ve read this far, we trust you’re interested and concerned … as you should be.

So we STRONGLY encourage you to SERIOUSLY consider attending BOTH Brien Lundin’s New Orleans Investment Conference (coming up FAST!) and The Real Estate Guys™ 2018 Investor Summit at Sea™.

These events each feature lots of big brains … with critical perspectives every serious investor needs to have to help understand and navigate these stormy times.

Sure, these events are capitalist ventures … we each make some money producing them.

But we’re not after your money … we simply use to it for event costs and to pay some bills along the way.  Your support makes these events possible.

We organize events so we can get brilliant minds in one place at one time.  And the only way to make it affordable for us … and you … is to share the cost with hundreds of others.

So yes, we need your help.  And in exchange YOU get access too!

With that said, these events are happening with or without you. Your absence or presence, while nice for us, could be LIFE-CHANGING for YOU … and that’s true of most important ideas, opportunities and relationships.

So with the winds of sea change blowing fiercely on the horizon, it’s a good time to consider carefully whether or not investing in preparation is a good idea.

We think it is.

Until next time … good investing!

 More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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The Role of Investors in Bouncing Back from Disaster

Posted by on September 11, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

We’re sure you’ve noticed the upheaval certain areas of the U.S. … it’s been hard to miss.

Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma have swept Texas, Florida, and the Caribbean, leaving a path of destruction in their wake.

Every natural disaster brings a certain amount of tragedy, and our sympathies go out to those who are hurting from the storms.

But we’re heartened to see communities coming together in the aftermath to help heal damage … and we think real estate investors can play a role in building communities that are even stronger than before the storms.

Listen in to this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show to hear us brainstorm ideas about how investors can help … and how they can prepare for future disasters.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your disaster-pro host, Robert Helms
  • His disaster-prone co-host, Russell Gray

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Finding opportunities in the midst of tragedy

Perhaps it makes you uncomfortable to think of profiting while people are suffering.

That’s okay. In fact, it’s more than okay … it means you have the right intentions.

But bringing your skills on to the scene after disaster has struck isn’t simply opportunistic.

By getting involved, you’re solving problems and adding value. This is the sunny side of capitalism.

You can make a fair profit … and make a difference too. Just make sure you’re doing the right thing for the right reason.

Remember … the flip side of every problem is an opportunity.

In the aftermath of a disaster, there are myriad opportunities.

Investors can renovate flooded and damaged houses. Some houses will be lost causes until an investor decides to step in and put some capital to work.

But the opportunities don’t stop there.

Out of necessity, huge disasters involve a large displacement of people. Investors can create new housing situations for displaced people.

And disasters also effect the local economy. Jobs are affected, causing a ripple effect for entire communities … including landlords whose tenants’ jobs are affected.

Finding ways to revitalize local communities and create jobs can minimize damage and create huge amounts of good.

Smart choices at opportune times

Getting involved simply because there is an opportunity isn’t always the smartest choice. Make sure you’re getting involved because it makes sense and it’s the right choice for YOU.

Investors have to know that after a major disruption, banks, government agencies, and other financial institutions may create incentives to sweeten the deal and get people involved.

After Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana government created a “go zone” with adjusted depreciation rates.

These incentives can make investing in disaster-struck areas a smart idea … but we’d warn you to never let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

It’s easy to get caught up in a temporary disruption and make a long-term commitment without realizing that circumstances may revert to what they were pre-incentives.

With that said, Houston is a favorable market … it’s landlord friendly, with many major industries creating jobs.

Most of the things that make Houston make sense haven’t changed. And if you want to invest there, there’s no better time than now.

It may be smart to be the first to make a move … while everyone else is still panicking.

Putting money to work by investing

Let’s look at properties that fall into distress.

Maybe the owners got stuck in a bad situation. Investors can step in pre-foreclosure, buy the home, rehab the property, and put it back into service.

You’re doing good by helping the owners before they’re foreclosed on, and you’re making the neighborhood a better place … all in one fell swoop.

You’re making a difference on the micro scale. The same idea works on the macro scale … when disaster strikes a whole community instead of a single person.

Disaster-struck cities will have blighted areas. Many may have been functionally obsolete even before the storm.

Now is the time to redevelop and rebuild … to create great neighborhoods where none existed before.

It wouldn’t surprise us to see entire neighborhoods change composition if real estate investors have the good sense to identify trends and get in on investment opportunities early.

A smart syndication opportunity

Perhaps you want to help pick up the pieces … but you’re not sure where to find the capital.

Incentives can help. You may also want to consider community banks, who will be eager to get investors on the scene as early as possible.

There’s lots of capital out there. Not all of it has to come from banks, though … syndication is another great option.

Running syndication deals in disaster-struck areas gives people a great opportunity to put a chunk of cash to work. Instead of donating a small amount and getting nothing back, investors can see their money do good … and also make a decent profit.

Entrepreneurs look for a market problem and figure out a way to solve it … profitably.

Look for ways to solve problems instead of despairing about everything that’s gone wrong.

Preparing for the next disaster

A big part of dealing with disasters … perhaps the biggest … is being psychologically and financially ready to step in when the next opportunity comes along.

Always be prepared. If you own properties, make sure you have the proper insurance in place.

Never risk 100% of your net worth. Always ask whether you’re taking too much risk before jumping in to a deal.

If you want to be a first responder next time disaster strikes, it’s smart to have a source of capital ready to deploy when the right opportunity comes up.

If you know you won’t have enough capital on your own but think you’re the right person to syndicate a deal for other investors, build your network before the right opportunity comes along.

Build your brand and your credibility. That way, you’re not running around looking for people to invest when the time is right.

Just like the Boy Scouts, we’d encourage you to always be prepared.

Make sure you’re aware of all possible downsides. Don’t go in looking for the upside first.

Beware of trick ponies. In the words of Warren Buffet, “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1.”

That doesn’t mean you should be afraid to jump in when the time is right … absolutely move while the situation’s still hot, but make sure you’re making a smart, calculated risk.

And don’t bet the farm on a single deal or market.

More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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Orlando

Posted by on April 13, 2017 · Leave a Comment 

Orlando

 

Florida has long been a heralded go-to for tourists and RETIREES … who happen to be BOOMING!   But who else?

 

When it comes to choosing markets, you already know you are looking for DEMAND.  .The demand we are talking about comes from lots of people who sleep under roofs.  Florida boasts of over 20 million in population … It holds its own right up there with the largest states in the nation.  The Orlando Metropolitan Statistical Area is the third largest metropolitan area in the state of Florida.

At risk of sounding like a broken record … Big markets mean lots of people, political clout, infrastructure and lifestyle amenities.  Big also means economically diverse.  All these things are important for long term stability.

What else drives demand for this sun-shine state?

We’re glad you asked!  You’ll definitely want to read the latest Reports & Articles below, but here’s some of our thoughts to prime your thinking-pump …

Florida continues to be a prime target for the migrating 75 million Baby Boomers … talk about demand!

You already know retirees love warm weather.  And Florida’s climate is probably going to continue to meet the “Sun Belt” criteria for the foreseeable future.  The mass exodus of retirees to this sunshine state is far from over.

Who else is flocking to Florida?  Well, who else would be in the Boomers wake?  You guessed it, Millennials!  No other Florida metro makes the top 10, but Orlando ranks among the highest metros for the largest share of the millennial population.

High JOB GROWTH and affordability attract this younger generation.  According to Forbes, Orlando’s job growth for 2016 ranked No. 1 compared with 382 U.S. metropolitan areas … Orlando is one of the top 25 MSA’s currently (2016) experiencing the biggest economic surge.

Thumbs up for No State Income Tax!  Unless you’ve got wind of something different, there seems to be no change here in the near future.

Florida has been touted as a Low-Cost of Living state.  Housing is right up there as one of the biggest living expenses for most people.  If someone retired by selling a home in New York and relocated to Florida, their housing budget goes a lot further.  Ok.  That’s interesting, but …

An even more important factor in assessing the cost-of-living is, not the market people are coming from, but the income of the locals.  The Housing Affordability Index is one thing we like to look at when considering the sustainability of a markets growth.  Is the market economy primarily fueled by foreign investments and out-of-state investors gambling on returns?  Or is strong, local economic health supporting the property rental rates and values?

This index measures median household income relative to the income needed to purchase a median-priced house.  The Orlando Metro’s affordability index in 2016 was 58% above the national average.

Orlando is EXCITING!  We see a convergence of demographic demand, scarce supply, influx of out-of-state wealth, AND LOCAL economic stability.  As a whole, because of the large number of people that tend to move in and out of the state, Florida’s housing market has historically been volatile … If you were watching Florida during the 2008 crash we don’t have to explain this to you.

As real estate investors though, we don’t buy whole states.  We buy particular properties, in particular neighborhoods.

Imagine you could see strong monthly profits, take advantage of the trends in demand, and secure your cash flow with a diversified, stable tenant base.

The Orlando MSA from July 2014 – July 2015 has the fastest growing population of the country’s 30 largest regions according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Orlando, and it’s surrounding communitites, power the Orlando economy with blue collar and service workers diversified outside of the tourist industry – these communities tend to hold their values, rental rates and occupancy.

Put your boots on the ground and come explore the market for yourself!  In the meantime, here are some helpful resources we trust you’ll find useful as you dive into this exciting area …

Radio Shows

Reports & Articles

Market Field Trips & Property Tours

  • Coming Soon!

Boots-on-the-Ground Teams

Clues in The News

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