The NAHB index rose two points to 44 in March, according to a Wednesday press release. The mild rise in homebuilder confidence exceeded economists’ expectations; a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll of economists believed the index would drop to 40. The NAHB’s March score is the highest reading since September 2022.
The U.S. housing market is absolutely imploding, but nobody should be surprised. In fact, we were warned way ahead of time that this would happen. When the Federal Reserve told us that they would be aggressively raising interest rates, we all knew what this would do to the housing bubble. It was obvious that home prices would fall, home sales would plummet and home builders would get absolutely crushed. Sadly, that is precisely what we are witnessing. But instead of reversing course after witnessing all the damage that they have caused, Fed officials are insisting that even more rate hikes are necessary. So as bad as things are right now, the truth is that they are going to get even worse in the months ahead.
It appears delusion and hope can only last so long – even when one’s salary depends on it – as US homebuilder confidence crashed to COVID lockdown lows in October after refusing to see what everyone else was seeing more months.. and what homebuyers were clearly feeling as prices soared along with mortgage rates and devastated affordability for most Americans. Against expectations of a small drop from 46 in September to 43 in October, the headline confidence index crashed to 38 – its lowest since the nadir of COVID-lockdown panic (that was worse than the weakest forecast of all economists surveyed)…