Social Security, Inflation and Real Estate …

If you’re relatively young, Social Security is probably just an abstract concept and another bite out of your paycheck.

But before you tune out,  consider that the U.S. Social Security program creates both problems and opportunities for real estate investors of ALL ages … including YOU.

Big picture …

Social Security and Medicare make up about 42% of federal program expenditures.  They’re a BIG chunk of Uncle Sam’s spending.

According to this Congressional Research Service report on Medicare and this Social Security Administration Trustees’ Report … both are headed towards insolvency in the not-too-distant future.

That’s bad.

Worse … both are “pay as you go” programs.  That’s not our description.  That’s exactly the way the U.S. government describes them.

The programs don’t really have any money.

The only “assets” these programs have are YOUR taxes … and IOUs from Uncle Sam.  The CRS report explains it on page 5.

Of course, IOUs from Uncle Sam are also backed by taxes … and the Federal Reserve’s printing press (which means inflation).

According to recommendations by the SSA Trustees in their report, the answers are … wait for it …

… raise payroll taxes and reduce benefit payments.  

Shocker.

You probably know payroll taxes are paid by working people (your tenants) and their employers.

Higher payroll tax obviously means less take-home pay to live on … including paying their rent to YOU.  So you may want to pay attention to the direction of payroll taxes.

But what about benefit reduction?  How does that matter to real estate investors?

There’s the obvious impact on tenants who rely heavily on Social Security, disability benefits or Medicare to help them with their routine living expenses.

Reduction in subsidies means those tenants have less money to pay rent … and less flexibility to absorb increases to rent or other costs of living.

But there’s a less obvious angle to consider … one we pay close attention to … and that’s the Fed’s printing press.

We trust at this stage of your financial awareness, you’ve heard of John Maynard Keynes, the father of the “Keynesian economics” you hear about.

Here’s a long, but powerful statement made by Keynes in his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace …

“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflationgovernments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.  By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.

Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers,’ who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.  As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

There’s SO much we could say about that quote … but read it and re-read it a few times.   You’ll view the news in a whole different light.

For now, let’s get back to Social Security, inflation … and YOUR real estate investing …

As you can guess, cutting benefits overtly is not a politically popular solution.

Neither is raising taxes.

Yet according to the people in charge of these programs, that’s EXACTLY what needs to happen.

And it is happening … but “in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

That is … cutting benefits and raising taxes are both cleverly hidden inside how Uncle Sam and the Fed handle inflation.

When most people think of “inflation,” they think of Uncle Sam’s official gauge of inflation … the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

It’s well known that the Fed has a stated goal of 2% per year inflation … every year … year in and year out.

That doesn’t sound like much. And whether it’s good or bad depends on which side of the coin you’re on.

If you own real assets, you get richer in nominal terms.

If you use long-term debt, like mortgages, you get richer in real terms.

That’s too big a concept for today, but one EVERY real estate investor should know like their name.  In fact, it’s a big part of what Robert Kiyosaki will be talking about at our next Investor Summit at Sea™.

But just because you own properties doesn’t mean you’re home free (punny, we we know) because …

… for folks who don’t have assets (like your tenants) … inflation means it costs more to live.  To see it in dollar terms, use Uncle Sam’s inflation calculator.

Based on the CPI, a tenant in October 2018 would need $1,542 to purchase items that cost only $1,000 in October 1998.

That’s means they need more than a 50% increase in take-home pay over 20 years … just to keep the SAME standard of living.

Similarly, for programs like Social Security … with  built in cost of living adjustments (COLAs) … a $1000 benefit in 1998 now costs Uncle Sam $1542.

No wonder the debt is swelling.

Of course, it didn’t take Uncle Sam long to figure out keeping the CPI lower than real-world rate of inflation, would effectively cut benefits without political fallout.

In other words, as Peter Schiff often points out, the CPI probably UNDER-reports the ACTUAL rate of inflation … which means the reality is even harder for the working class than the CPI indicates.

So it’s important for investors of all types to get the best measure of real-world inflation possible.  And the CPI is arguably not it.

That’s why many investors turn to Shadow Stats or the Chapwood Index.

The Chapwood Index is handy for real estate investors because it breaks inflation down by city.  That’s important because unlike stocks, bonds, and commodities … real estate is a LOCAL investment.

Here’s where it all comes together …

Even though Uncle Sam is motivated to keep inflation LOW for CPI purposes, they have no choice but to print gobs of dollars to fund the huge and growing debt and deficit.

Meanwhile …

Income producing, leveraged real estate is arguably (and by far) the safest, most powerful hedge against long-term inflation.

But again, rental property investors must stay alert to the pressure inflation puts on their tenants.

Remember … just because nominal GDP is growing, it doesn’t mean your tenants are getting more purchasing power.

So be careful to select markets, product types, and tenant demographics that fit well into what’s happening in the big picture.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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The future of interest rates …

WOW … the news is FULL of things to keep an investor awake at night.

Some of it’s so exciting, you can’t wait to seize the opportunity.  Other things are so spooky, you want to pull the covers up and hope it’s just a Halloween gag.

Right now, stock market investors are learning it can be a mistake to try to ride the bull all the way to the peak … squeezing every drop of paper profit out …

… falsely believing you can beat the bears to the exit.

Stocks fall for 12 of the last 14 trading sessions – Yahoo Finance, 10/23/18

Yeah, but that’s Wall Street …

Existing-Home Sales Decline Across the Country in September – National Association of Realtors, 10/19/18

Oops.  Meanwhile …

Homeowners poised to start tapping $14.4 trillion in equity – CNBC, 10/19/18

Big banks reveal challenges in consumer credit, mortgages – Yahoo Finance, 10/15/18

“banks are seeing challenging headwinds … as charge-off rates – a measure of defaulted balances –  continue to rise.” 

So while there are MANY things to like about what’s going on in the U.S. economy …

U.S. named world’s most competitive economy for the first time in 10 years– Washington Post c/o The Chicago Tribune, 10/17/18

We remind you (and ourselves) … the economy and the financial system supporting it are two VERY different things.

That’s why you can have two camps … one saying the economy is strong … and another saying disaster is looming.  And they’re BOTH right.

Of course, “disaster” does NOT mean the end of the world … or a descent into some Mad Max post-apocalyptic anarchistic society.

Disaster can be as simple as a rapid shift in asset or currency values that the majority of people are on the wrong end of.

Just like the 2008 crisis ( a warm-up for what Peter Schiff calls The Real Crash which is yet to come) …

… those who were not aware and prepared got CRUSHED … while those who were made MILLIONS.

So “disaster” isn’t a universal experience when the economic winds shift suddenly.

It’s more a personal choice (often by default from neglect) and depends on the set of YOUR personal financial sail.

You’ll either get capsized, face severe headwinds … or you’ll catch a gust of wind at your back and sail on to new fortunes.

So watching the changing economic winds is an important responsibility of any serious investor.

Interest rates are the barometer which signals a change in the economic winds.

That’s why pro investors fixate on every move or utterance of the Federal Reserve, which is ONE of the most powerful influencers of interest rates … but NOT the only one.

No investor left behind …

 Interest rates are a by-product of the bid on bonds, which are debt securities.

So if the U.S. Treasury decides to borrow money (which they do ALL the time), the bid on those securities sets the yield.

The lower the bid, the higher the yield and vice-versa.

Falling interest rates (yields) come from a STRONG bid on bonds.  That is, there’s lots of buyers for bonds relative to the supply of bonds for sale.

When the Fed wants to push rates down, they add to market demand by BUYING bonds … bidding UP the bond price and driving DOWN the yield.

Are you with us so far?

But when the Fed wants to push rates UP, they do NOT bid on bonds (leaving demand up to the open market without the Fed’s bid).

Sometimes, the Fed will even SELL bonds they already own (“unwinding their balance sheet”) … adding to the supply offered by the Treasury (and other sellers like RussiaChina and even Japan).

And more supply and less buyers means bids go down … so yields go UP.  Make sense?

Apparently, government officials aren’t concerned about soft demand for Treasuries …

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: I won’t be ‘losing any sleep’ if China dumps US bonds in retaliation over trade – CNBC 10/12/18

“If they decide they don’t want to hold them, there are other buyers …”

Okay then. No worries.  But …

Foreign Buying of U.S. Treasurys Softens, Unsettling Financial Markets –Wall Street Journal, 10/23/18

“Yet it is clear that the foreign pullback has helped fuel a bond selloff this fall, which has driven the 10-year yield to 3.17% and has shaken the nine-year-long rally in U.S. stocks …”

There’s a reason stocks are tanking and it has little to do with the economy.  That’s why President Trump is so upset with the Fed.

But it seems to us rising interest rates could be bigger than the Fed.  And the world looks different if the Fed loses control of interest rates.

Head spinning yet?  That’s okay.  It can be complex.  But there’s a reason big money watches the bond market like a hawk.

We try to keep is simple and just focus on the big concepts and how they trickle down to our Main Street investing …

More bonds than buyers mean rates are likely to rise.

For real estate investors, it means downward pressure on values … and more caution when using short-term financing.

Of course, when you can lock in long-term rates, today’s debt actually becomes an asset over time.  But that’s a topic for another day.

And just in case the ramblings of two dudes with mobile microphones and a fetish for news articles don’t make the case …

Last Saturday, we paid a visit to the New York home of former Director of the Office of Management and Budget or OMB (like the OMB numbers you see on your tax forms) … David Stockman.

Of course, we plunked down our mics and recorded a FASCINATING interview at his kitchen table … looking out his penthouse window at the stunning New York City skyline.

If you have any doubt Stockman is a world-class brainiac, buy a copy of his EPIC tome, The Great Deformation.

Bring your lunch and dictionary, but it’s totally worth it.  Only Robert Kiyosaki’s copy is more highlighted and marked up than ours.

You may not agree with Stockman’s politics, but he’s well-qualified to have an opinion on economic matters.  So we listen carefully.

Stockman believes even higher interest rates are coming to an economy near you.

So if there’s any doubt all this airy-fairy macro-economic babble matters to YOUR Main Street investing … think again.

And be VERY thankful these things roll out slowly.

There’s still time to re-arrange your portfolio and activities to fall squarely in the “aware and prepared” camp … and NOT in the “WTF is happening?” camp.

Of course, you can’t just float along with the crowd … unless you’re very careful to pick the right crowd.

But even then, it’s dangerous to fall asleep at the controls of your portfolio.

If you’re super studious, you can probably load up on books, podcasts, newsletters, video courses, and news articles … and you’ll be ahead of most.

And if you’re like us, you’ll do all that.

But you’ll ALSO invest to get in the right rooms with the right people so you can have portfolio-saving conversations.

Since you’ve read this far, you should consider joining us at both or either theNew Orleans Investment Conference and the Investor Summit at Sea™.

It’s where we go to get around a lot of REALLY smart people for SUPER enlightening conversations.

And it’s arguably more important RIGHT NOW than in recent memory …

,,, because for many investors, this is the first time in their investing career they’ve faced a rising interest rate environment.

You can learn by trial and error (expensive and painful) … or by gleaning wisdom from seasoned investors and well-qualified subject matter experts.

It’s probably obvious which one we advocate.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Crash Talk with Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff

Freedom Fest is a crazy collection of different mindsets and ideas … and that’s why we make it a point to attend as often as we can.

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, we talk to two fellow Freedom Fest attendees about their thoughts on the economic and political realities of the world we live in.

These two guests have earned the right to have an opinion … and today, they’ll help us understand their thoughts on the bigger picture and how that picture affects YOUR investing business.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your thinking-ahead host, Robert Helms
  • His crashing co-host, Russell Gray
  • Legendary investor Jim Rogers
  • Finance pro Peter Schiff

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Why YOU need to understand the economy

Peter Schiff has taught us that economics and politics are intertwined. Policy effects the economy … and vice versa.

There’s a lot happening in the wider economic world that affects investors on Main Street. Realizing that has affected our decisions as The Guys … from the events we attend each year to the way we structure our annual Summit at Sea™.

Friends and mentors like today’s guests help us understand the economic systems at work in the U.S. and around the world … and how those systems affect what happens in the financial headlines.

Speaking of headlines, you won’t hear these gentlemen very often in mainstream financial media because they don’t fit the narrative the media wants to tell … which is that an upward trajectory can continue forever.

As we know, anything involving money follows a cycle of ups and downs … and we’re in the midst of the longest economic recovery EVER.

There’s no doubt that at some point, we WILL hit a downturn. But there is good news … those who prepare for impact can thrive, even during bad times.

Words of wisdom from Jim Rogers

Legendary investor Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros.  

We were honored to talk to him about what it takes to be an investor in changing times.

“You have to be open to change,” says Jim. To anticipate future changes, you have to realize the world WILL change. And it takes work, he says.

So how can we prepare? “When everyone’s exuberant, you should be worried,” Jim notes. “That means they’re not thinking.”

(Hint, hint: consider the current market.)

Jim has written several books. His most recent is called A Gift to My Children.

Although Jim didn’t originally want kids, he found out he was wrong once he had his own children. These days, he is always thinking of what he wants to teach his kids.

That’s what the book is about … the lessons he has learned in investing and in life, for his kids … and yours.

We also asked Jim for his thoughts on cryptocurrencies. He said, “Blockchain is going to change everything we know.”

That means a lot of people being put out of business … but it will also CREATE a lot of new businesses. So don’t worry.

We can translate that same idea to the broader economic world. You’ve got to go through a downturn to get to an upturn.

Jim reminded us that the Chinese word for crisis, weiji, means both danger and opportunity.

Speaking of China … that’s where Jim lives. He decided to move to the other side of the world to make sure his children grew up speaking Mandarin … they’re now fluent.

“China’s going to become the next great country,” he says.

Peter Schiff offers a voice of reason

We also enjoyed chatting with financial guru Peter Schiff. He has attended every Freedom Fest except one … and that was because his child was due.

Before the ’08 financial crash, Peter was a voice of reason. He maintained that the economy wasn’t great … everyone just thought it was.

The booming economy pre-crash was based on a bubble of appreciation, consumption, and inflated prices. People were deceived because it seemed like good news was around every corner … so they weren’t prepared for the bubble to pop.

As opposed to the bubble in ’08, our current bubble hasn’t provided boosts to the large majority of people, says Peter. We’ve just barely reached pre-recession levels.

So, why do these economic bubbles happen? It’s a result of what Peter calls “stag-flation” … stagnation PLUS inflation.

Subscribers to Keynesian economics believe unemployment causes inflation, so the idea that employment AND inflation could rise at the same time seemed impossible.

But inflation is caused by an expanding money supply, not expanding prices.

And the thing that keeps prices in check is the supply of products. Having a lot of stuff bolsters a strong economy and keeps a lid on pricing.

Scarcity is what leads to high prices.

Inflation in the 1960s happened because of policies from earlier decades, says Peter … high spending, high levels of borrowing, and the government’s decision to go off the gold standard.

According to Peter, today’s monetary policy is MUCH WORSE than anything that happened in the 60s and 70s.

And our economy is less secure … so we can’t just raise interest rates when things get bad.

Everybody is exposed, says Peter … because everyone has more debt and interest rate risk than ever before.

The Fed doesn’t want to think massive inflation is possible. “But it’s the problem you don’t see coming that gets you,” Peter notes.

The next crisis “will be bigger and will be worse.”

Peter talks tariffs and trade wars

People are excited about tariffs on China … but they shouldn’t be, according to Peter. “We derive the most short-term benefit from trade,” he says. “We have the most to lose.”

The problem is not the federal deficit … it’s the economy. When deficits pile up, we destroy our wealth, and right now we have HUGE trade deficits because of our fiscal policy.

We also have tax and regulatory codes that make American businesses less competitive.

But trade deficits offer us two BIG benefits.

First, we are getting a ton of REAL products … and it costs us nothing, because we can produce or borrow those dollars out of thin air.

Second, when the Chinese recycle those dollars, they buy U.S. treasury bonds.

So trade deficits mean prices are lower and interest rates are lower.

If Trump is successful on tariffs, Americans will have higher prices, higher interest rates … and a lower standard of living.

Tariffs “will make us the losers in the short term,” says Peter. They’ll also exacerbate any recession that happens.

We talked with Peter about one more thing … why investors should consider gold and international assets.

When we spoke, gold and silver prices were down. “That’s the flip side of optimism,” Peter says. “Optimism is not buying gold, because people usually buy gold when they’re worried, and people aren’t worried right now.”

“When no one is worried is when YOU should be worried,” Peter says.

Gold is more valuable now than it was in 2011, says Peter … but it’s also cheaper.

He told us there’s tremendous potential in gold mining stocks, as well as international assets.

Investors should look for where money will go when it flees the U.S. … and try to invest there before the economy crashes and there’s a stampede.

Remember, you can make 10 times the amount you invest … but you can never lose 10 times the amount. You can only lose what you put in.

For more from Peter, check out the Peter Schiff Podcast.

Get educated

Peter and Jim have a different way of looking at the world … and that’s a good thing.

If you’re learning some of their concepts for the first time, we wouldn’t be surprised if you’re a bit lost. That’s okay.

We encourage you to keep seeking out knowledge and multiple perspectives … so you can make informed decisions and be prepared for the future.

One great resource to consider is our Future of Money and Wealth video series.

We realized our conference speakers had a WEALTH of information to offer … so we decided to share it with YOU. This video series is great for beginners and long-time investors alike.

Remember … you can’t take effective action without education!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Future of Money and Wealth

The economy may be strong …

but what about the financial system supporting it?

 

Discover the opportunities hidden inside a FRAGILE financial system … and how to HEDGE against inflation, deflation, and even stagflation.

Featuring voice largely shunned by mainstream media, the Future of Money and Wealth reveals …

 

  • The REAL trade war no one’s talking about … and how Russia and China are making major moves to take down a major U.S. stronghold …

  • Which assets are in bubbles now … and specific strategies to fortify your balance sheet … before it’s too late …

  • The shocking truth about oil … it’s direct impact on YOUR wealth … and how to profit from what’s about to happen …

  • Who the new tax law REALLY helps … and how YOU can use it to grow more wealth faster (it’s NOT an IRA) …

  • PLUS … candid conversations about crypto-currencies … wealth privacy strategiescontingency planning … and MUCH MORE!

 

Just ONE good idea can make or save you a FORTUNE …

 

Future of Money and Wealth brings you a HUGE collection of experts, thought-leaders, and real-world investors … who ALL volunteered their time to share their best ideas, warnings, and strategies with over 400 people in the live audience …


Robert Kiyosaki is the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad

Robert Kiyosaki

Famous for being the greatest-selling personal finance author in history (Rich Dad Poor Dad series), Robert is a mega-millionaire investor in real estate, precious metals, and oil. He’s also an avid student of money, economics, investing, and the financial system. He was one of the few pundits publicly warning the world about the 2008 financial crisis.


Doug Duncan PhD is the chief ecoomist for Fannie MaeDoug Duncan

Doug is SVP and chief economist for Fannie Mae, which is perhaps the most dominant force in U.S. residential lending.

Doug is responsible for strategic research, including how Fannie Mae’s activities affect housing. He’s been named one of Bloomberg / Business Week’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate.


Peter Schiff is the CEO and Chief Global Strategist for Euro-Pacific Capital, the best selling author Crash Proof and The Real Crash, and the host of the Peter Schiff podcastPeter Schiff

Peter’s also a multi-millionaire investor, money manager, and outspoken financial pundit.

A best-selling author in his own right (Crash Proof 2.0 and The Real Crash), like Robert Kiyosaki, Peter was on record vociferously alerting people in 2006 about the impending financial crisis.

 


Chris Martenson is host of the Peak Prosperity podcast and the creator of The Crash Course.Chris Martenson

An economic researcher and futurist, Chris is an expert in the relationship between energy, the environment, and economics. Rising to prominence with his groundbreaking video series, The Crash Course, Chris is a best-selling author (Prosper!) and hosts a popular podcast featuring interviews with a variety of thought leaders and experts.


Simon Black is the founder of Sovereign ManSimon Black

A former Army intelligence officer turned international entrepreneur and investor, Simon’s a worldwide traveler, an avid student of political and financial history, and has developed an eclectic portfolio of investments and business ventures all over the globe.

Simon’s diverse experience and global perspectives make his presentations both practical and enlightening.


Tom Wheelwright is Robert Kiyosaki's personal CPA, a Rich Dad Advisor, and the best-selling author of Tax Free WealthTom Wheelwright

Tom’s a high energy tax and wealth strategist, a best-selling author, an entrepreneur … and is Robert Kiyosaki’s personal CPA.

Tom’s extremely well-versed in the new U.S. tax law and shares how investors can use it to build substantial wealth and permanently reduce taxes.

 


Kim Kiyosak is the best-selling author if Rich Woman and co-founder of the Rich Dad CompanyKim Kiyosaki

Kim is a high-powered real estate investor, entrepreneur, and best-selling author of Rich Woman. She’s co-founder of the Rich Dad company and a popular speaker on the topics of investing,
entrepreneurship, and empowering women.

Kim co-hosts the Rich Dad radio show, and is an avid student of investing, economics, and personal development.


G. Edward Griffin is the author of the Creature from Jekyll IslandG. Edward Griffin

Ed is a renowned investigative journalist and best known for his epic and controversial book, The Creature from Jekyll Island – A Second Look at the Federal Reserve.

Ed has a deep and historical understanding of money, currency, central banking … and a knack for explaining all of it in an easy to understand way.

 


Brien Kundin is the produced of The New Orleans Investment Conference and the publisher of Gold NewsletterBrien Lundin

For nearly four decades, Brien’s been an active student, investor, commentator, and newsletter publisher in the precious metals industry.

As producer of the longest running investing conference in the world, Brien’s one of the most informed, connected, and intelligent experts on money, precious metals, mining, investing, and economics.


 

Future of Money and Wealth is brought to you by The Real Estate Guys™ Radio Show

 

Broadcasting on conventional radio since 1997, The Real Estate Guys™ radio show is an investment talk program focusing on real estate as the core of a real asset portfolio.

 

After being among the many real estate investors caught completely unaware and unprepared for what happened in 2008 …

 

… hosts Robert Helms and Russell Gray are on a mission to bring the brightest and best real asset investing experts together to share insights, ideas, and strategies for building and preserving real, sustainable wealth.

 

The Real Estate Guys™ co-host Russell Gray explains why …

 

What YOU DON’T KNOW you don’t know can COST YOU BIG

 

Sound dramatic? Maybe. But consider this …

 

Wealth Wiped Out Without Warning

In 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 … millions of people were financially DEVASTATED by market disruptions they didn’t even see coming.

 

Meanwhile, in those very same markets … informed and prepared investors not only survived … they THRIVED.

 

What’s the difference?

 

Be Careful Who You Listen To

Successful investors didn’t buy the hype from Wall Street, financial media, and politicians who downplay dangers … just so they can earn fees, placate advertisers, and win votes.

 

Remember this classic assurance?

 

“Importantly, we see no serious broader spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on May 17, 2007

 

Oops. Of course, just a year later the financial system melted down … triggering the GREATEST FINANCIAL CRISIS since the Depression.

 

But successful investors back then understood history. They looked at the financial system underneath the “strong” economy … and saw reasons to be alarmed.

 

They paid attention to the people and signs others were ignoring …

 

… so they could be proactive to get in position to prosper while there’s still time.

 

TODAY, there are record levels of consumer, corporate, and government debt

 

… and rising interest rates are already triggering loan defaults … to levels not seen since the 2008 crisis.

 

Stocks indexes are setting bubble highs … and market volatility suggests traders are ready to run for the exits … crashing prices … at the first sign of recession.

 

And that’s just some of the more obvious challenges facing Main Street investors.

 

But there’s GOOD news …

 

Many successful investors prospered through past market disruptions and YOU can too.

 

By finding new ideas, strategies, and the right experts you’re better able to see what’s coming sooner

 

… so you can be proactive preparing YOUR business and portfolio to both survive and THRIVE through the next crisis.

 

Future of Money and Wealth brings YOU important insights from many top experts … so YOU can be more aware and prepared.

 

Eavesdrop on the Experts …

 

Imagine being a fly on the wall while some of the biggest brains in economics and investing share expert insights and discuss the most pressing issues facing investors today ..

 

You don’t have to imagine … because the Future of Money and Wealth is all on videotape and ready for YOU to watch from the comfort of your own home or office!

 

Just ONE good idea can make or save you a FORTUNE …

 

Explore the future of money and wealth with people well-qualified to have an opinion …

 

Speakers include Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki and outspoken financial pundit and money manager Peter Schiff.

 

Both men are famous for LOUDLY warning the 2008 crash was coming … in spite of being mocked by mainstream financial media.

 

Back then the economy was STRONG … but the financial system was FRAGILE. And while many “experts” couldn’t see it … Kiyosaki and Schiff did.

 

And while Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke was DEAD WRONG … Robert Kiyosaki and Peter Schiff were RIGHT.

 

Today Robert Kiyosaki and Peter Schiff are concerned again. And this time they’re not alone.

 

Fannie Mae (yes, THAT Fannie Mae … the one making most of the mortgages in the U.S.) chief economist Doug Duncan points out that most of his predictions from last year turned out to be eerily accurate …

 

… and then reveals when he thinks the NEXT recession will strike (it’s not that far away)

 

And that’s just one of TWENTY powerful expert presentations and panels recorded at the Future of Money and Wealth conference.

 

Other important topics include …

 

    • Where real estate is likely headed … and which niches are best positioned for profit

 

      • Why oil and gas are likely headed higher … and the important impact on the economy and opportunity for investors

 

        • The fascinating rise of block-chain technology … and how crypto-currencies are changing the future of money and wealth

 

… PLUS a shocking revelation about the RAGING currency war between the U.S. and the tag team of Russia and China.

 

Far Away But TOO Close to Home …

 

You’ll discover there’s a WHOLE LOT MORE to the sparring between Uncle Sam and Russia and China than the mainstream media lets on.

 

And while it may seem like it’s far away from YOUR income and investments … it’s NOT.

 

If you earn, save, or measure your wealth in dollars …

 

… you REALLY need to understand the Future of Money and Wealth.

 

Nearly 400 people in the live audience at the Future of Money and Wealth conference were blown away. They called it “life-changing”, “eye-opening”, and “invaluable”.

 

But don’t take our word for it … watch for yourself …

 

Here’s the GREAT NEWS …

 

We videotaped the ENTIRE event … all TWENTY presentations and panels …

 

… nearly fourteen compelling hours of essential education

 

… and we’ve organized them all into one powerful online video series.

 

Now YOU can hear directly about the Future of Money and Wealth from Robert Kiyosaki, Peter Schiff, Doug Duncan, Chris Martenson, Tom Wheelwright, Brien Lundin, Simon Black, G. Edward Griffin … and MANY other top experts.

 

You may not know who all these people are right now … but you’ll be REALLY glad to hear from them.

 

Their wisdom is impacting the lives of many millions of people all around the world … and it can help you too.

 

Real World Investors React …

 

It’s one thing to hear and understand what’s happening in geo-politics and macro-economics. It’s another to decide what to DO about it at the micro-level.

 

So we included lots of practical insights from a great collection of niche experts, including …


Adam Taggart is co-founder of Peak Prosperity and co-author of ProsperAdam Taggart

Adam started his career as investment banker and saw first hand how broken Wall Street is. Later, he helped a company go from start up to acquisition in Silicon Valley. Today, Adam and his partner Chris Martenson develop and share ideas to help people prosper even when the world is full of uncertainty.


Kathy Fettke is the co-founder of Real Wealth NetworkKathy Fettke

Kathy’s a highly successful real estate investor, syndicator, and investment club leader.

She’s also a frequently featured expert real estate pundit in media and at conferences.

 


Gene Guarino is founder of Residential Assisted Living Academy and an expert in residential assisted living investingGene Guarino

Gene’s a recognized leader in the residential assisted living facilities investing space. He’s a trained, but not practicing Certified Financial Planner. Gene saw opportunity in solving one of the major problems facing an aging demographic … and grabbed it.

 


Beth Clifford is an international real estate developerBeth Clifford

Armed with a formal education in classical economics and graduating with honors, Beth cut her business teeth on the streets of Wall Street.

Today she’s CEO of a groundbreaking offshore real estate development and construction company.


Brad Sumrok is the founder of Sumrok Apartment Investing MasteryBrad Sumrok

Brad freed himself from the corporate grind in less than 5 years by investing in apartment buildings.

The 2008 financial crisis crushed many homeowners … and made many apartment investors multi-millionaires. Brad not only built a portfolio that survived the crash … he thrived through it.


David Sewell is an international agricultural investor and entrepreneur

David Sewell

David is a Canadian-born international agricultural investor and entrepreneur operating in Latin America.

With an MBA in Corporate Finance and an extensive background in real estate, securities, syndication, and international business … there’s not much David hasn’t seen.


Damion Lupo is founder of Total Control FinancialDamion Lupo

Damion is a modern-day financial renaissance man with expertise in real estate investing, precious metals, and crypto-currencies. He specializes in strategies using alternative assets and sheltering wealth from predators and taxes through qualified retirement plans.


Patrick Donohoe is founder and CEO of Paradigm LifePatrick Donohoe

Patrick is a financial strategist and an expert in the unique use of life insurance contracts for enhanced cash management and private banking.

He has a degree in economics, hosts his own financial podcast, and is an avid student of economics, investing, and financial history.


Dana Samuleson is owner of American Gold Exchange, and an expert in precious metals and numismatic coins.Dana Samuelson

Dana has been in the precious metals business for decades.

He owns and operates a long-established precious metals and numismatic coin dealership, and is past-President of the Professional Numismatic Guild.

 


 

It’s said to truly understand a subject, you need to study it from multiple perspectives.

 

Wealth that took a lifetime to accumulate can be lost or severely diminished in a financial crisis.

 

To survive and thrive when a financial system collapses or resets takes understanding, awareness and preparation. Future of Money and Wealth is an affordable, fun, and easy way to get started!

 

A tremendous value …

 

This program cost MANY thousands of dollars to produce. With travel, hotel and registration … every person at the taping paid thousands.

 

And the information in this video series is EASILY worth thousands of dollars … because just ONE great idea can make or save you a FORTUNE.

 

So we could charge a LOT more for this program … and it would be totally worth it.

 

And of course, we need to charge SOMETHING to cover costs … AND more importantly, so you have enough skin in the game that you’ll actually watch it all.

 

But as you’ll see … it’s important to get this vital information out to as many people as possible. So we’re making it a no-brainer …

 

Get ALL 20 videos … 14 hours of compelling content … for only $497 (regularly $1997)

 

PLUS a SPECIAL BONUS when you act today … the Strategic Real Asset Investing webinar.

 

HUGE value … great price … powerful, life-changing information. But ONLY if you watch it!

 

Remember … what you don’t know that you don’t know could cost you a fortune … just ask all the people blind-sided by the last financial crisis.

 

“An investment in education pays the best dividend.”
– Benjamin Franklin

 

Good advice. No wonder Ben’s on the $100 bill.

 

Now it’s decision time …

 

You’ve read this far for a reason.

 

You’re concerned about the future … YOUR future … but while it’s easy to be interested, it takes an investment of time, money and effort to actually get educated and busy implementing.

 

But if you think that’s a burden …

 

Consider the price of NOT being informed and prepared …

 

And even if “this time it’s different” (famous last words) …

 

.. and there’s never going to be another financial crisis … sunshine and unicorns for as far as the eye can see …

 

Which is worse … to be prepared and not have a crisis … or to have a crisis and not be prepared?

 

Remember, the course you don’t watch can’t help.

 

Whatever you have, you’ve worked hard for.

 

And remember … the flip side of a crisis is opportunity, so it’s not gloomy … there’s a lot to look forward to and plan for.

 

For the informed and prepared … the future is bright. But for those who aren’t … not so much.

 

With the stakes this high, it’s time to …

 

To your prepared and prosperous future,

 

Robert Helms and Russell Gray
Hosts
The Real Estate Guys™ Radio Show
Producers of Future of Money and Wealth

 

P.S. Think about how much financial education you got in school. Most people get NONE … and so they’re easily herded into a system designed to feed the banks interest, the government taxes, and Wall Street commissions and fees.

 

Worse, without context … it’s nearly impossible to recognize major problems forming … while bankers, politicians, and financial media claim all is well.

 

Future of Money and Wealth will shock and enlighten you … and help you prepare yourself and your portfolio to PROSPER through what many experts believe is an inevitable economic re-set.

 

You’re a click away from changing your future …

 

Get ALL 20 videos … 14 hours of compelling content … for only $497 (regularly $1997)

PLUS a SPECIAL BONUS when you act today … the Strategic Real Asset Investing webinar.

Just ONE good idea can make or save you a FORTUNE …

Don’t get lost in the lag …

Investors and economists often talk about cycles … business cycles, credit cycles, even news and legislative cycles.

Cycles are the ebb and flow of causes and effects sloshing around in the economic sea we all swim in.  They’re big picture stuff.

For nose-to-the-grindstone Main Street real estate investors, cycles are barely interesting, seemingly irrelevant, and mostly boring.

But a danger for Main Streeters is not seeing something dangerous developing on the horizon.  Another danger is getting lost in the lag.

The lag is the gap between when a “cause” happens and when the “effect” shows up.

For example, in a typical supply-and-demand cycle, a shortage of homes could cause prices to spike.    The effect of the supply-demand imbalance is higher prices, which in turn becomes a new cause.

Rising prices causes builders to increase production … and existing property owners to put their homes on the market … thereby increasing supply.

As supply grows, price escalation slows. If supply overshoots demand, prices might actually fall.  If you’re structured for only rising prices, you might have a problem.

Of course, there are other factors affecting pricing such as interest rates, wage growth, taxes, labor and material costs, availability of developable land, and on and on.

But our point is … an amateur investor often doesn’t see the cause for price escalation (or anything else) until the effect happens.

Once prices rise, they jump in to ride the wave … believing prices will go up tomorrow because they went up yesterday …  and their speculation only adds to the demand and fuels the fire.

At least for a while …

What’s often overlooked is the production pipeline … until the supply shows up and softens pricing.  Near-sighted investors often get lost in the lag.  They’re not sure where they are in the cycle.

It’s what happened to “GO Zone” investors after Katrina and Bakken investors during the shale boom.

Folks bought in during a boom, not considering the “production lag” … and didn’t structure for a slowdown.  When it happened, they didn’t have a Plan B.

It’s a simple example … and before 2008, that was about as deep as our analysis ran.

But the pain of 2008 opened our eyes … and 10 years later they’re still as wide open as we can keep them … because we know there are cycles as sure as the sun comes up.

That knowledge isn’t bad.  In fact, it’s good.  Because when you see the bigger picture, you also see more opportunity.

So we study history for lessons … current events for clues … and we talk with experts for different perspectives.

It sounds complicated … and maybe it is a little … but it’s like the old kids’ game, Mousetrap.

There’s a lot of fancy machinery hanging over our heads …and it’s just a series of causes and effects.  “A” triggers “B” triggers “C” and so on … until it’s in our faces.

But even at the street level with our nose on the cheese, if we watch the machinery, we can see events unfold and still have time to react appropriately.

So let’s go past a simple supply-and-demand example.

Back in 1999, Uncle Sam decided to “help” wannabe homebuyers get Fannie Mae loans … so the government lowered lending standards and pushed more funds into housing.  It seemed like a nice thing to do.

But at the time, observers cautioned it could lead to financial problems at Fannie Mae … even to the point of failure.  It took nine years (lag) … but that’s exactly what happened.  Fannie Mae eventually failed and needed a bailout.

But before things crashed, it BOOMED … and people made fortunes. We remember those days well.  It was AWESOME … until it wasn’t.

Folks were profitably playing in the housing jumphouse from the time the easy money air pump switched on until the circuit blew.  Lags can be a lot of fun.

Because few understood why the party started and why it might end … most thought the good times would roll forever.  So they were only structured for sunshine.

Oops.

People who urged caution at the height of fun … like Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki … were derided as party-poopers.

Of course, they both did well through the crisis because even in the boom they were aware of the lag and the possibility of a downturn … and were structured accordingly.  Smart.

Now, let’s go beyond supply, demand, and mortgages … and look even further up the machinery …

In late 2000, Congress passed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000.

Doesn’t sound like it has anything to do with real estate … BUT …

This was the birthplace of unregulated derivatives … like those infamous credit default swaps no one in real estate ever heard of …

… until they destroyed Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, while bringing AIG to the brink of bankruptcy, and nearly crashing the financial system.

This mess got ALL over real estate investors in a big and painful way … even though there was an 8 year lag before it showed up.

Remember, for those 8 years a lot of the money created through derivatives made its way into mortgages and real estate … adding LOTS of air to the jumphouse.

Back then, real estate investors were riding high … just like today’s stock market investors.

And those who only measured the air pressure in the jumphouse … ignoring other gauges … didn’t see the circuits over-heating … until the system failed.

Then the air abruptly stopped, the inflated markets quickly deflated, and the equity-building party turned into a balance-sheet-destroying disaster.

And it happened FAST.

Which bring us to today …

The Atlanta Fed recently raised their GDP forecast for the booming U.S. economy.

Stock indexes are at all-time highs.  Unemployment is low.  The new Fed chair says, “The economy is strong.”

Some say these are the effects of tax cuts and a big spending bill.

Makes sense … because when you measure productivity by spending, when you spend, the numbers move.  Spending, or “fiscal stimulus” is an easy way to goose the economy.

But some are concerned this is a temporary flash fed by debt and deficits.

Others say it’s fiscal stimulus done right … kindling a permanent fire of economic growth and activity.

Could be.  After all, Trump’s a real estate guy, so he understands using debt to build or acquire long-term productive assets.

Real estate investors know better than most that not all debt and spending are the same.

Of course, government, geo-politics, and a national economy are a much different game than New York City real estate development.

And there are certainly some cracks showing in all these strong economic numbers …

A strong U.S. dollar is giving emerging markets fits.  Home buyingbuildingappreciation, and mortgages are all slowing.

We’re not here to prognosticate about what might happen.  Lots of smart people are already doing that, with a wide variety of opinions.

We just keep listening.

Our point today is … there’s a lag between cause and effect smart investors are wise to consider.

When lots of things are changing very fast, as they are right now, some are tempted to sit out and see what happens.  Probably not smart.

After all, the air in the jumphouse could last a while.  No one likes to miss out on all the fun.

But others put on sunglasses, toss the umbrella, and go out and dance in the sunshine … without watching the horizon.  Also not smart.

Dark clouds could be forming in the distance which might quickly turn sunshine into storm.

The best investors we’ve met take a balanced approach … staying alert and nimble while enjoying the sunshine, but not getting lost in the lag.

Changes in economic seasons aren’t the problem.  It’s not seeing them coming and being properly prepared.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Lessons from Facebook’s face-plant …

No doubt you’ve heard Facebook’s stock face-planted recently. But just in case, here’s the whole gory story in just three headlines over five days …

Facebook stock hits record high ahead of earnings – MarketWatch 7/25/18

Investors … continue to shrug off … gaffes … with privacy and security … Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg … said … the company has not seen an impact on the company’s top line.”

Facebook’s stock market decline is the largest one-day drop in US history

– The Verge 7/26/18

“Facebook’s market capitalization lost $120 billion in 24 hours.

Facebook’s stock set to enter bear-market territory after third straight decline – MarketWatch 7/30/18

“The stock has now fallen 22% from its record close … on July 25.”

Of course, if you’re a real estate investor this may seem like only a moderately interesting side story buried in all the news flying across your screen.

And maybe that’s all it is.

Then again, maybe there are some things to be gleaned from this epic implosion … even for real estate investors.

Lesson 1: Just because everyone else is … doesn’t mean YOU should

Your mom probably taught you that. But it’s good investing advice too. It’s never smart to be late to an equity party … or late leaving.

The so-called FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) are the “must have” stocks for … just about EVERYONE.

The problem is popular assets often get bid up well past their fundamental value … as speculators jump in hoping to ride the upward trend for awhile …

… and hoping to be fast enough to get out before the trend turns.

Of course, hope isn’t a very good investing strategy.

Lesson 2: Don’t ignore problems just to keep hope alive

Notice the quote about investors continuing to shrug off bad news … ignoring the obviously developing problems at Facebook.

So when Zuckerberg comes out right before the bad news … even as Facebook’s stock was heading to a record HIGH … and says the problems aren’t affecting the top line …

… investors apparently chose to believe him, … and not heed the clues in the news that clearly showed Facebook was headed for stormy seas.

Now, investors are suing Facebook and Zuckerberg for misleading them.

But investors should also look at the big picture, and consider the motives of these who claim as is well.

Remember this classic assurance from the world’s foremost banker?

“Importantly, we see no serious broader spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market.”

– Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on May 17, 2007

Just a year later the financial system all but imploded.  But the danger signs were there …

Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki were warning people. Most didn’t listen.

We didn’t. But you can be SURE we listen today.

Lesson 3: Momentum is a condiment … not a meal

With real estate, sustainable profit is all about the income.

Sure, it’s great when things get hot and people want to pay MORE for the SAME income.  But at some point, the numbers don’t make sense.

You can bad fundamentals and invest primarily because “it’s going up.” But when momentum fades, prices snap back to fundamentals.

If you’re on the wrong end of it, it’s painful.

Of course, if you see it coming, you can cash out via refinance or sale, and store up some dry powder for the soon-to-be-coming sale.

Lesson 4: Trends and indexes are interesting, but the deal’s what’s real

We have a big, diverse audience … so we talk about big picture stuff. It’s important to see the big picture.

After all, every asset you own is floating in a big sloshing economic sea.

If you’re not aware of weather patterns and watching the horizon, you might not see storm clouds and rough waters forming.

But investors make money in EVERY kind of economic environment, so it’s not the conditions which dictate YOUR success or failure.

It’s your attention to being sure each individual deal YOU do makes sense.

That means the right market, product type, neighborhood, financing structure, and management team.

Keep the deal real … and have plans for what you’d do in a variety of economic situations …

… so when conditions change you’re not caught unaware and unprepared.

“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”

– John F. Kennedy

Lesson 5: Train wrecks in stocks can be tee-up for real estate

This is our favorite.

It’s not that we take joy when the stock market reveals its true character … but we know it’s a wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee moment for many Main Street investors.

As our friends Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart recently pointed out

… if you take the FAANG stocks out of the stock indexes, the highly-touted stock index returns would have been NEGATIVE.

It’s hard to diversify when you you’re exposed to the hot stocks everyone’s piled into … directly or indirectly.

So as Main Street investors come to suspect the disproportionate influence just a few arguably overbought stocks have on their TOTAL net worth and retirement dreams …

… history says people’s hearts turn home to an investment type they instinctively understand and trust. Real estate.

So for those raising money from private investors to go do more and bigger real estate deals, a stock market scare can make it easier for your prospects to appreciate what you’re offering them.

Lesson 6: Do the math and the math will tell you what to do

Very few paper asset investors we’ve ever met actually do the math.

They either buy index funds based on trends and history, and don’t realize most are exposed to the same small group of hot stock everyone owns …

… or they buy stocks based on a hot tip, a gut feeling, or a recommendation from someone they think is smarter than they are.

But real estate math is SO simple to understand and explain.

And when you can quickly show a Main Street paper investor how a 15-20% annualized long-term return on investment real estate is quite realistic … with very moderate risk …

… real estate is the CLEAR winner.

Even a modest 3% per year price appreciation on 20% down payment (5:1 leverage) is 15% average annual growth rate.

Add to that another 2% or so a year in amortization … paying down the loan using the rental income … you’re up to about 17% annualized equity growth.

Toss in another modest 3-5% cash-on-cash and some tax benefits and you’re pushing 20% annualized total return pretty fast.

And that’s just bread-and-butter buy-and-hold rental property.

There are all kinds of specialty niches and value-add plays which allow active investors to goose returns …

… or for a syndicator to put a lot of meat on the bone for their passive investors … and still take a piece for doing the work.

Lesson 7: Monitor your portfolio for weak links and over-exposure

Lots of paper investors who didn’t even know they were exposed to Facebook are finding out the hard way …

… just like when we didn’t realize our whole investing and business model depended on healthy credit markets.

So be aware …

When you’re overly exposed to a critical factor like interest rates, credit markets, a tax law, a specific industry or employer, or even a currency or financial system

… you run the risk that a single unexpected event can take a BIG bite out of your assets.

And while you might not be able to fix everything right away, the sooner you’re aware of the risks, the sooner you can start preparing to mitigate them.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Can you handle the truth?

“You can’t handle the truth!” 

 – Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men

Neither optimists or pessimists can handle the truth.Optimists refuse to acknowledge the part of reality that’s negative …

… while pessimists can’t see the ever-present opportunities hidden behind the problems.

While we’d rather be optimistic than pessimistic, maybe it’s better to be BOTH.“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” 

 – F. Scott Fitzgerald 

Here are some thoughts about risk and opportunity from legendary real estate investor Sam Zell …

People love focusing on the upside.  That’s where the fun is.  What amazes me is how superficially they consider the downside.”  

“For me, the calculation in making a deal starts with the downside.  If I can identify that, then I understand the risk I’m taking.   Can I bear the cost?  Can I survive it?” 

You can only take calculated risks if you look carefully at both the upside AND the downside.

Today, the entire global financial system is largely based on “full faith and credit” … primarily in the United States dollar.

And there’s a gigantic investment industry that’s built on perpetual optimism …and a belief non-stop debt-fueled growth FOREVER is actually possible.

Even worse, the entire financial system’s fundamental structure literally REQUIRES perpetual growth to avoid implosion.

That’s why central banks and governments are COMMITTED to debt and inflation … at almost ANY cost.

But as Simon Black points out in Future of Money and Wealth 

History is CLEAR.  Empires and world reserve currencies don’t last forever.

And irredeemable paper currencies and out-of-control debt ALWAYS end badly … at least for the unaware and unprepared.

Optimists can’t see this.  So they take HUGE risks they don’t even know exist.

Pessimists can’t act.  So they miss out on the HUGE opportunities that are the flip-side of the very problems they obsess over.

Robert Kiyosaki stresses the importance of being REALISTS …

… standing on the edge of the coin, seeing BOTH sides … and then being decisive and confident to ACT in pursuit of opportunities while being keenly aware of the risks. 

We created the Future of Money and Wealth to gather a diverse collection of speakers and panelists together … to examine the good, the bad, and the ugly …

… so YOU can have more context and information to make better investing decisions. 

Chris Martenson opens our eyes to the physical limitations of long-term perpetual exponential growth which depends on unlimited supplies of clearly LIMITED resources.

Of course, as these critical resources dwindle, they’ll become very expensive as too much demand competes for too little supply.

When you see nation’s fighting over scarce resources, it’s a sign of the times.

But of course, there’s OPPORTUNITY hidden inside of crisis.

And to seize the opportunity, you must understand it … or it just sits there like a hidden treasure under your feet.

But it’s not just recognizing trends.  It’s also TIMING.  And being a lot early is much better than being even just a little late.

To beat the crowd, you can’t wait for the crowd to affirm you. 

To get timing right, it’s important YOU know what the signs are.

What does it mean when Russia dumps Treasuries and buys gold?  What caused Bitcoin to sky-rocket in 2017?  Why are there bail-in provisions in U.S. banking laws?

Peter Schiff saw fundamental problems in the financial system back in 2006 … and screamed from the rooftops that the financial system couldn’t support the then red-hot economy.

Few listened … then WHAM!  In 2008, the weakness of the financial SYSTEM was exposed … and MANY people were CRUSHED.

Peter insists the REAL crash is still yet to occur … and everything that made the financial SYSTEM weak in 2006 is MUCH WORSE today.

Yet small business and consumer OPTIMISM is at all-time highs.  The ECONOMY appears to be BOOMING … again.  And Peter’s still screaming out his warnings.

The Fed is RAISING interest rates to cool things down.  But history says EVERY SINGLE TIME the Fed embarks on a rate raising campaign it ends in RECESSION.

In Future of Money and WealthFannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan reveals when he thinks the next recession is coming … and WHY.  We listen to Doug because he’s got a really good track record.

The 2008 crisis exposed real estate investors to the REALITY that what happens on Wall Street, at the Fed, and in the global economy … can all rain down HARD on Main Street. 

Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away.  And you’ll die of old age waiting for the storm clouds to blow away.

There will ALWAYS be risk.  There will always be OPPORTUNITY. 

It’s not the external circumstances which dictate what YOU get.

It’s really up to YOU … and your ability, like Sam Zell, to see both opportunity and risk, so you can aggressively reach for opportunity while carefully navigating risks.

Education, perspective, information, and thoughtful consideration are all part of the formula.

That’s why we created the Future of Money and Wealth video series.

Future of Money and Wealth features TWENTY videos … over fourteen hours of expert presentations and panels …

… covering the dollar, oil, gold, real estate, crypto-currencies, economics, geo-politics, the new tax law …

… PLUS specific strategies to protect and GROW wealth in the face of potentially foundation-shaking changes to the financial system.

Just ONE great idea can make or save you a fortune. 

Future of Money and Wealth might just be one of the best investments you’ll ever make.

To order immediate access to Future of Money and Wealth … 

Click here now >> 


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Better check that foundation …

We know a guy who bought a property with NO foundation.  He didn’t know it because he paid cash … and with no lender forcing an inspection, he skipped it.

Oops.

He figured since the property had been in use for decades, everything was fine.  But just because a building is standing, it doesn’t make it safe or sound.

Similarly, the financial system is the foundation of the economy.  Last time, we noted the U.S. economy is reportedly doing well.  Great!

But … there’s a BIG difference between a strong economy and a strong financial system.

Now before you crawl up in a ball and go full fetal, remember … bad times are good times for the informed, connected, and prepared.  That’s why we do what we do.

So let’s dig a little deeper …

An economy is about ACTIVITY … making, selling, buying things … and saving to create pools of capital for lending to do more of all those activities.

A financial system is the INFRASTRUCTURE which supports the activity … banks, credit, stock and bond markets … even the currency itself.

People can see and feel economic activity. It’s visible all around.  The news reports on it day and night.

But it’s a LOT harder to see the strength or weakness of the financial system.

Most people simply go about doing their economic activity and trust (consciously or unconsciously) that smart, responsible people are maintaining the system.

Others don’t really trust the folks in charge … but aren’t sure how to know whether the financial system operators are doing a good job or not.

So sadly, most people are completely blind-sided when the system fails in some way.  Just think about the millions of people wiped out in 1929, 1971, 1987, 2000, and 2008.

And if you’re not sure why those dates are significant, it’s probably time to allocate some of your financial focus to more than just your economic activity.

We know.  It’s boring.  It’s hard to understand and relate to.  Just like a building’s foundation … most people would rather walk the property than climb under the house.

We get it.  But stick with us … because if you’re riding any part of the boom, it’s wise to consider when, where, and how fast the party ends.  Because parties ALWAYS end.

This is why some of the pundits we follow … guys like Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki, Chris Martenson, Simon Black … sometimes seem a little gloomy.

While mainstream media is telling you how pretty the economy is … these guys are inspecting the foundation and seeing cracks … which are perhaps not obvious to the untrained eye.

Debt

One of the biggest cracks is the obscene amounts of individual, corporate, municipal, national, and global debt.  The world’s NEVER been in debt like it is right now.

The problem is debt needs to be serviced.  And when debt is growing faster than productivity (income), defaults occur.   This leads to the next huge concern …

Derivatives

When Party A borrows from Party B, Party A has a liability … and Party B has an asset.  Party A’s liability is Party B’s asset.

When Party B pledges their “asset” (Party A’s debt) as collateral for a new loan from Party C … now TWO loans depend on the performance of Party A.  Make sense?

Of course, Party B’s loan now becomes Party C’s asset … and Party C can pledge it as collateral for another loan … and on and on.  Party on.

Daisy Chains

These debt parties link balance sheets of financial institutions together like a group of mountain climbers all tethered together.

The obvious problem is because of the linkage … when debts go bad, the entire system is subject to …

Counter-Party Risk

They call this “contagion” and it was the heart of the 2008 financial crisis … even as the Federal Reserve assured everyone things were “contained.”

But asset prices are fragile … based on most players holding their positions and not dumping them.

However, when debt implodes, players sell whatever they have as fast as they can to raise cash to cover the bad debt.

That’s what happened to stocks in 2008.  And even though people weren’t dumping real estate to raise cash, real estate values fell when money stopped flowing into mortgages.

So yes … all of this matters a LOT to real estate investors. 

When credit markets collapse, it chokes lending, crashes asset prices, and stalls economic activity.

That’s bad for everyone who depends on asset prices and credit markets.

(Of course, for the prepared, it’s a shopping spree!)

Central Banks 

Last time the credit markets failed, central banks stepped in and printed TRILLIONS to buy up bad debt, backstop failing banks, and reflate asset prices.

Can they do it again?

Maybe.  But some say interest rates aren’t yet high enough to drop far enough fast enough in a crisis to jump start the economy.

Also, central banks balance sheets are still bloated with bad assets they printed money to buy up in the last crisis.

Will the world stand by as trillions more are printed to do it again on an even grander scale?  Or would the world lose faith in …

The Dollar

As we describe in detail in Future of Money and Wealth, China and Russia have been openly leading a rebellion against dollar dominance.

And while the Chinese currency is arguably some distance from supplanting the dollar globally, it’s picking up steam.

The yuan is now a MUCH more viable dollar alternative than anything else was in 2008.   This is a developing story we’re following closely.  Meanwhile …

Let the Good Times Roll

Don’t get us wrong.  The economy appears to be strong.  There’s a lot of opportunity in the market RIGHT NOW.

If you’re in the right markets and product niches, this is a fun and profitable time to be an investor.

BUT … the financial system these good times are based on hasn’t really changed.  In fact, in some ways the cracks are getting larger.

So while the good times roll, remember things usually roll downhill … and sometimes right off the edge.  Best to stay aware and prepared.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

Investor Summit at Sea 2018 – Part Two

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, we bring the Summit at Sea™ to you! In part two of our Summit recap, listen to expert investors discuss the topics they know best, including:

  • Why moving to Puerto Rico can save you big bucks
  • What kind of capital you need to prepare for the future
  • The benefits of investing in real assets

And more! Our faculty will give you a taste of life at sea on the Summit cruise ship.

You’ll hear from:

  • Your smooth-sailing host, Robert Helms
  • His seasick (just kidding!) co-host, Russell Gray
  • Economist Peter Schiff
  • Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart, co-authors of Prosper!
  • The apartment king, Brad Sumrok
  • David Sewell, agricultural farmland broker and syndicator
  • Brand-building consultant Kyle Wilson
  • Syndicator Michael Becker
  • Author of the Gold Newsletter, Brien Lundin
  • Precious metals dealer Dana Sanderson
  • Real estate guru Kathy Fetke
  • And finally … the godfather of real estate, Bob Helms

 


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Tax free in sunny Puerto Rico

The Summit at Sea™ is more than just a once-in-a-lifetime educational opportunity … it’s also a cruise around the Caribbean.

One of our stops was lovely Puerto Rico (PR), where some Summit attendees were lucky enough to be hosted by faculty member Peter Schiff. Peter moved his family and business to Puerto Rico about five years ago.

“It was not a sacrifice,” says Peter. He sees great benefits to living in PR. It’s very family friendly and has beautiful weather and beaches and great communities.

But the biggest benefit … and the reason Peter relocated to this island territory … is the tax breaks. Puerto Rico has a four percent corporate tax, and residents can receive dividends tax free.

Living and working in PR is the best way to maximize tax benefits … although you only need to be in the area 183 days a year. But since Peter is “trapped by the school year,” he chooses to enjoy this island paradise year round.

“It’s not as onerous as it seems,” he says of getting and maintaining Puerto Rico residency. We can vouch for that!

Ways to build your capital

Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart joined us on stage to chat about the value of attending the Summit … and the importance of building the eight types of capital they outline in their book, Prosper!

Their key takeaway from the Summit? The number of millennials interested in finding ways to build capital and prepare for the future. “There is a critical mass of young investors who are keenly interested in our message,” says Chris.

During a breakout with millennials, Chris and Adam witnessed young investors getting the chance to learn from experienced investors.

They were impressed by millennials’ command of pressing issues, including, Adam says, resource depletion, species extinction, and the fact that lifestyle costs are quickly outpacing wages.

“Younger generations have nothing to gain if the status quo continues as it is, but older generations have everything to lose,” notes Adam. The big question is how to resolve this tension.

Younger generations will be the ones to come up with solutions … so it’s important they realize that the other side of challenge is always opportunity.

Folks who are intelligent and aware will have a chance to make an awful lot of money … but they can’t do it with financial capital alone.

“If all you have is financial capital, you’ve basically just painted a big target on yourself,” Adam says. He says emotional capital is probably the most important form of capital to have.

That means being able to handle crisis without falling apart … and coming back stronger. It’s the willingness to be vulnerable … and make meaningful connections with other people.

“It’s hard to find places where you can drop your guard,” says Adam, but that’s why the Summit is so extraordinary … it allows attendees to be real and experience true connection with a diverse group of people.

Turning dollars into precious metals

We had two faculty members speak to our attendees about precious metals investing. Brien Lundin is the author of the Gold Newsletter, and Dana Samuelson is a precious metals and rare coins dealer.

We invited these men to join us as faculty members because even though our focus is real estate investing, we believe investors should be looking at the bigger picture of all real assets … including precious metals.

“I was really blown away at the quality of the speakers, the audience interactions, and the audience itself,” Brien says. Dana agrees, “I’ve never met a more unassuming group of over-achievers in my life.”

Both men had similar advice for investors.

According to Brien, “Some level of dollar depreciation is inevitable.” And, he adds, “Every developed economy is in the same boat.”

Gold provides a hedge against appreciation because it’s the standard of wealth … and has been since currency was first created. “We are seeing a U.S. fiscal situation where debt is going to increase, which will naturally push gold higher,” says Dana.

For investors unsure of where to start, Dana offers reassurance. “Buying and selling gold is pretty easy these days,” he says. Investors have the option of buying physical metals or coins, buying in paper form through ETFs, or buying by proxy through mining shares.

If that’s not a sign to go for the gold, we don’t know what is!

The Summit experience

We spoke to six other Summit faculty to get their takes on this year’s Summit.

Multi-family investor and syndicator Brad Sumrok says, “I thought I knew what to expect, but I was blown away. The Summit is a mind-expanding experience.”

A common thread was the value of connecting with other investors … even outside of formal sessions. “Dinners and hanging out were the most valuable part of the cruise,” says syndicator Michael Becker.

A third-year faculty member, Kyle Wilson, says, “The network and connections are unbelievable. We come to get good ideas and bounce ideas off of each other.”

David Sewell agrees that the Summit is a center for unbelievable growth and learning. “I learn something new every time I’m here.”

Like our gold-loving friends, David believes in the value of investing in real assets to gain protection from the volatile dollar. His chosen asset is agricultural real estate, specifically coffee and cacao farms in Latin America.

Because of high, steady demand, getting into the coffee and chocolate business is “almost a no-brainer,” David says.

His goal is to monetize his business away from U.S. dollars into gold … and he’s learned how to do that, he says, by attending the Summit and learning from the stellar faculty.

Both David and real estate expert Kathy Fetke, along with many other Summit attendees and faculty, know big changes are coming to the U.S. dollar and to resource availability around the world.

But, says Kathy, “The right advice can change everything.” It can be scary to realize the reality of things … but you can’t prepare for the future if you don’t know what’s coming.

The Summit is invaluable for Kathy because it provides a chance to hear about massive upcoming changes … and discover ways to prepare.

For example, Costa Rica and Ohio are both wonderful places for growing food and accessing clean water, two things Kathy says will be incredibly important to have in an uncertain future.

Kathy was also impressed by the young people at the Summit. “They give me confidence in the future,” she says.

Our long-time contributor Bob Helms, the grandfather of real estate, agrees. “I was very impressed with the information, energy, and knowledge of the young people,” he says.

Want to get on the boat next year? Get on our advanced notice list! We’ll send you updates as soon as they’re available.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

The future of interest rates …

Interest rates are a big deal for real estate investors … for many reasons.

The first and most obvious reason is because interest rates are the price of the money you borrow to invest with.  Higher rates mean higher payments and less cash flow.

Of course, even when you pay cash for your properties, your tenants probably carry consumer debt … car loans, credit card, and installment debt …

Higher rates mean higher debt payments for your tenants, so less of their monthly budget is available to pay you rent or absorb rent increases.

Also, your property values, exit options, and liquidity are all affected by interest rates.

Higher rates mean buyers have less capacity to bid up comparable properties … and fewer buyers can afford to buy your property when you’re ready to sell.

For these reasons and others, most real estate investors and their mortgage advisors pay very close attention to interest rates …  especially when financing or re-financing.

But there are other very important reasons for real estate investors to care about the future of interest rates …

Interest rates are a barometer for the health of both the currency and the overall economy.

Last time we looked, most real estate investors transact and denominate wealth in currency (dollars for Americans) … and your rental properties, tenants’ incomes, and overall prosperity all exist inside of the broader economy.

So the potential for big changes to either the currency or the overall economy matter to real estate investors just like they do to paper asset investors.

In fact, based on the amount of debt most real estate investors use, interest rates are arguably even MORE important to real estate investors.

We’re just a couple of days away from our Future of Money and Wealth conference … with nearly 400 people coming … and right now we’re thinking a lot about the dollar and interest rates.

Peter Schiff is speaking.  Peter wrote Crash Proof in 2006 and released it in 2007.  Back then, he loudly warned of an impending financial crisis whose roots would be in the mortgage market.

Sadly, back then we didn’t know Peter, and we didn’t read his book.  Then 2008 happened, and we were blindsided by the financial crisis.

So now we read more … a LOT more.

We make time to listen to people like Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki, and Chris Martenson.  And we work hard to share them with our audiences.

A very interesting book we just finished is Exorbitant Privilege by Barry Eichengreen.  He’s Professor of Political Science and Economics at Cal Berkeley.

Eichengreen published Exorbitant Privilege in 2011, which means he probably wrote it in 2010.

Keep this in mind as we share these prophetic excerpts from Chapter 7, “Dollar Crisis”…

“What if foreigners dump their holdings and abandon the currency [dollar]?  What, if anything, could U.S. policymakers do about it?”

“It would be nice were this kind of scenario planning undertaken by the Federal Reserve and CIA … it would have to start with what precipitated the crash and caused foreigners to abandon the dollar.”

Note:  Eichengreen probably didn’t know at the time that James Rickards, former attorney for Long Term Capital Management (the hedge fund at the center of the near financial meltdown of 1998), was participating in precisely this kind of planning, which Rickards describes in his book Currency Wars, published a year after Exorbitant Privilege.

Back to Eichengreen’s prophetic 2011 commentary …

“One trigger could be political conflict between the United States and China.  The simmering dispute over trade and exchange rates could break into the open …

“… American politicians … could impose an across-the-board tariff on imports from [China].”

WOW … Eichengreen wrote that at least 7 years before this March 22, 2018 headline from CNBC:

Trump slaps China with tariffs on up to $60 billion in imports: ‘This is the first of many’

Back to Eichengreen in 2011 …

“Beijing would not take this lying down.”

CNN Money on April 3, 2018:

China to US: We’ll match your tariffs in ‘scale’ and ‘intensity’

Eichengreen in 2011:

“Or the United States and China could come into conflict over policy toward rogue states like North Korea and Iran.”

If you’ve been following the North Korea drama, you probably know this one’s been back and forth.

Last summer, China seemed to side with North Korea.  Then they tried to take a neutral position.

But recently Kim Jong Un paid a secret visit to China.  Of course, no one really knows what that was about.

But based on recent trade policy it seems the U.S. isn’t sucking up to China for help with North Korea.  So maybe the U.S. and China disagree on North Korea?

Now STAY WITH US … because the point of all this is … according to Eichengreen …

China’s relationship with the United States and the U.S. dollar has a DIRECT impact on the future of YOUR money, interest rates, and wealth.

And if you’re like most Main Streeters, you may not completely understand the connection …

… just like we didn’t understand what Credit Default Swaps had to do with our real estate investing in 2008 … until everything suddenly imploded …

… despite reassurances from the wise and powerful man then behind the curtain of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke.

And the point here isn’t Iran, or North Korea, or tariffs, or trade wars … it’s about whether China gets upset enough with the U.S. and opts for the nuclear option …

Eichengreen in 2011:

“… China [could] vent its anger and exert leverage … by … dumping [Treasuries] … would send the bond markets into a tizzy … interest rates in the United States would spike.  The dollar would crater … could cause exporters, importers, and investors to abandon the dollar permanently.”

Obviously, there’s a LOT more to this topic than we can cover today.

Our point for now is that way back in 2010-11, Eichengreen envisioned a scenario in which conflict with China could create a dollar crisis.

As you can see, today’s headlines are living out his concerns.

When you read Eichengreen, like Jim Rickards, he talks about things reaching a tipping point … where everything happens fast.

We lived that in 2008 and it was NO FUN.  But that was only because we were on the wrong end of it.  While we got slammed, others made fortunes. They were informed and prepared.  We weren’t.

So be cautious of normalcy bias and complacency when it comes to contemplating the possibility of a dollar crisis.

Better to be prepared and not have a crisis … than to have a crisis and not be prepared.

Until next time … good investing!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.

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