Ask The Guys – Choosing Markets, Tracking Trends and Calculating Cash-Flow

It’s a fan favorite … another edition of Ask The Guy for this episode of  The Real Estate Guys radio show! 

We take on lots of great questions from our fabulous audience, including how to choose a good real estate market … which important trends to track and how … one of the most important jobs of any real estate investor: calculating cash flow … and MANY more! 

Just remember, The Real Estate Guys don’t give advice… what we do is give you ideas and information and you then will sit down with professionals so you can get specific advice for your market. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ radio show, hear from:

  • Your Know-It-All Host, Robert Helms
  • His Know-Nothing Co-Host, Russell Gray

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What Counts As Positive Cash Flow? 

Our first question comes from Frank in Winkler, Manitoba, Canada … Frank wants to know, if someone takes a mortgage out on an investment property using current home equity and the investment property just barely covers the expenses, is this positive cash flow? 

One of the basic understandings of investing in real estate is the basic income formula … where does the cash flow come from? You have income, which is pretty easy to calculate if you have a single-family home … and then you have expenses.

We say there are two sides: the math of being the owner and the math of the lender. In the United States … you can have a little negative cash flow on paper, and if you’re short, you can bring some of your own personal income to bear if you choose. 

The main point is … you need to make sure you have a comprehensive budget and go in with your eyes wide open. Owners should be careful when working with a negative cash flow … you might want to build that into your capitalization budget to have reserves to carry you until you can get it to where it needs to be.

Buying a Property in a Different State

The next question is from Mike in East Grand Fork, Minnesota. Mike says he owns three single-family homes free and clear and wants to buy a property in Arizona for a warm weather escape. He says he pulls in $2,000 a month in profit after expenses and is looking for any strategies.

First thing is … why would anyone ever sell a property that was putting $2,000 a month in their pocket? 

And the answer is, because you can re-allocate that to property or properties that might pull $2,500 or $3,000 or $5,000 a month in profit or you can move to a market you like better!

Assuming the owner is keeping the first three properties and likes the market… the obvious thing is to put a loan on them… take advantage of today’s low-interest rates… and redirect some of that $2,000 a month cash flow into what would be a down payment for the Arizona property.

The bottom line is … get together with your mortgage professional, find out exactly what loan programs are available to you based on your credit score, your balance sheet, the amount of equity you have in the properties where they’re located, and make sure this is somebody that can help you in both Minnesota and in Arizona.

Investing in Property in Another Country

Sean in Lima, Peru, says he and his wife are living there as teachers and plan to buy a home there, live it for several years, then rent it out as a long-term investment when they return home to New York or another destination. They secured a loan from a local bank in Peru, however, the interest rates are much higher than in the U.S. 

The short answer is … there’s nowhere on earth where we have found financing as favorable as in the United States of America.

Many people who buy in another country often turn to the ability to borrow on property in the U.S. and use those proceeds to buy a property in other places. That’s method #1. 

Method #2 … borrow locally. One of the reasons is that that loan and that creditor have nothing to do with U.S. credit or your tax returns and so often those loans are made locally by local banks who invest in the property … so it’s a lot less cumbersome.

There’s a whole other side to investing internationally … there’s the basis of law in the country, what property rights look like… what their expenses are … whether countries share a tax treaty. Just consider all those factors. 

Know Market Trends 

These next two questions are related. 

Victor in Ocala, Florida, wants to know how to pick a real estate market to invest in, and Al, from Richmond, British Columbia, Canada, wants to know … what drives real estate trends and what resources can help us follow the real estate trends globally? 

The trend is your friend. You need to understand what trends are in real estate.

Markets vary all across the world … so the big picture on finding market trends and discovering a great real estate market has to do with the suitability of the property, the viability of the income stream, and the age-old supply and demand question.

All things being equal … rents are strong where there is demand for people to live in places, and so as investors, we’re looking for places that have strong economies … favorable tenant landlord law … and good market metrics. 

Demand is based on people wanting to live there and their businesses wanting to live there. Supply is building … the ability to build … the ability of the marketplace to expand supply. 

Places like Manhattan and San Francisco can’t increase supply … so prices only have one way to go. 

For 23 years on the show we’ve said … live where you want to live and invest where the numbers make sense. 

If you’re going to invest somewhere other than where you live … then you do need to study the market and understand the direction.

A market could be really great and have a lot of jobs, but if the jobs are all tied to one or two employers or industries, that could be a risk. 

Our premise is that you can’t really pay attention to more than about a half a dozen real estate markets … maybe 8 or 10 if you’re a full-time investor.

You need to know your markets on a granular level as real estate investors. 

Ratio of precious metals in the portfolio

These two questions from different listeners are on the same topic. 

Jason asks, what should be the ratio between how much silver, gold, and income property one has? And Gary from Idaho Falls, Idaho, wants to know about what percentage of an investment portfolio should be in precious metals? 

We believe that before you’re a real estate investor, you’re an investor, and you better understand that “compared to what” factor. 

If you approach the idea that you invest in real estate to make money …  and you assume that those are dollars … then you need to know something about dollars and currency. 

If you really understand what money is, you’ll recognize that for thousands of years, gold and silver have been money … and it’s only been since 1971 that gold and silver have not been money. 

Gold and silver don’t make you money as much as they preserve your purchasing power, so that’s how they all fit together. 

It depends on what you’re trying to do … there is no magic formula. It’s more important that you understand what the role of these different things are in your portfolio.

More Ask The Guys

Listen to the full episode for more questions and answers. 

Have a real estate investing question? Let us know! Your question could be featured in our next Ask The Guys episode. 


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Six valuable lessons from Warren Buffett’s shocking move …

Mega-billionaire investor Warren Buffett made big news recently when he made a move into gold mining shares … while dumping big banks and Goldman Sachs.

This surprise move is notable for several reasons and there are important lessons and actionable insights for Main Street real estate investors.

While we could dive into how this move is being construed by some as a vote of no confidence in the U.S. dollar in favor of gold …

… we’ll focus today’s muse on 6 key lessons from watching Warren work.

 

Lesson #1: Always pay attention

It’s indisputable that Buffett is a brilliant big-time billionaire investor. So anything he says or does is worth dissecting.

Buffett is a voracious reader … and we’re pretty sure it’s not People Magazine or GQ.

He’s diligent to read to acquire information, knowledge, news, and views related to money, markets, economics and the politics affecting all of them.

No doubt he’s looking for clues to help see the financial future before it’s here. As every investor should be, he’s trying to get in front of a wave to wealth.

He knows just ONE great idea can be worth a FORTUNE … literally.

 

Lesson #2: Keep an open mind

One of Buffett’s more notable investment philosophies has been his criticism of gold. He’s on record saying he has zero interest in owning it.

But apparently, Buffett appreciates the obvious trend in gold … and presumably believes the drivers underneath gold’s rise are sustainable.

Of course, we think this is something EVERY investor should be watching … even if they never own a single ounce.

As we’ve discussed MANY times, gold’s pricing reveals a lot about the future of the dollars we all earn, save, borrow, invest and measure wealth by.

Of course, everyone wakes up to what’s “apparent” at different times.

Often, the farther your prejudices and paradigms are from current realities … the longer it takes to see change. We’re all guilty of it.

As we pointed out last year, fellow mega-billionaire and big-time real estate guy Sam Zell lost his gold virginity last year.

We have no idea if Buffett’s disdain for gold stopped him from seeing it sooner … or if Zell’s “real asset” mentality helped him see it sooner …

… but based on the price action since Zell got in, it seems Zell’s timing has been better.

In any case, it’s important to remember … the world sometimes changes in ways that require shifts in both paradigms and investment philosophy.

Dogmas are fine if you’re lonely and need companionship. But investing often requires a healthy dose of pragmatism.

Sometimes, as the world changes … so should you. At the very least, it’s wise to keep an open mind.

 

Lesson #3: Adapting to opportunity doesn’t mean abandoning your principles

Buffett is a patient, principled, disciplined investor.

He looks for undervalued, profit-producing, well-managed enterprises. He doesn’t speculate on price.

Like a smart real estate investor, Buffett focuses on cash flow … knowing cash flow creates real equity.

And he’s quite willing to sit out hot-money-induced rallies.

In other words, Buffett doesn’t chase the market. Nor does he jump on bandwagons simply because everyone else is.

Of course, this is precisely why his move into mining shares and away from banks is so encouraging to gold-bugs … and concerning to dollar hawks.

After all, if Buffett is getting into metals and out of dollars, then there must be solid fundamentals supporting the rally in gold … and the reciprocal fall of the greenback.

But it’s notable that Buffett didn’t buy gold itself. Rather, he bought shares in a well-established gold mining company.

By choosing a miner over the metal, Buffett is investing in a profit-producing enterprise … one he presumably considers undervalued but well-positioned for the market dynamics he anticipates.

So Buffett is adapting to market dynamics, but still running his game.

Smart. Principled. Disciplined.

 

Lesson #4: When Mega-Billionaires talk (and act), you should listen

Billionaires aren’t always right … and you may not agree with them. But they’re certainly qualified to have an opinion worth considering.

Warren Buffet, Sam Zell and Ray Dalio are three legendary mega-billionaire investors … and their words and actions are signaling SERIOUS concerns about the dollar.

Of course, our mere mega-millionaire friends like Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki are singing out of the same songbook.

We’re not sure how many people screaming fire it will take to trigger a stampede to the exits … but the alarms are getting louder and more intense.

(Sniff, sniff …) Do you smell something burning???

 

Lesson #5: Better to be fashionably late, than completely miss the party

Buffett didn’t fail to make his move just because he’s a little late to the party.

While we certainly understand the concern and wisdom of thinking twice before jumping on a bandwagon at record price levels … mega-trends move slowly.

And once you see one … even if you’re late … it doesn’t matter what happened before. The past is cast.

What REALLY matters is whether whatever caused the move still exists and is likely to create more of the same going forward.

Even at record high dollar gold prices, Buffett apparently sees a solid, shiny future.

Of course, we’re not trying to persuade you to purchase precious metals. That’s your personal prerogative.

Our point here is that arguably the most famous and respected investor of our time is making moves that teach timeless principles that apply to investors of all types … including real estate.

And they also happen to affirm the significance of concerns about the intense pressure on the dollar 

… which of course, impacts everyone, including real estate investors.

 

Lesson #6: Assets which don’t produce income aren’t really investments

Lack of yield has been Warren Buffett’s core objection to gold.

So it’s not a surprise Buffett is choosing to invest in mining companies over buying the gold itself.

Robert Kiyosaki has been making the cash flow argument for decades.

Kiyosaki says the definition of an asset is something that puts cash in your pocket. In other words … a true asset is one that cash flows.

Notably, Kiyosaki also has been saying … and LONG before Ray Dalio recently did … that cash is trash.

Yet, unlike Buffet, Kiyosaki is a BIG proponent of holding gold. Not as an investment (no cash flow) … but as money (savings).

Clearly, Kiyosaki makes a distinction between currency (cash) and money (gold).

And no less than the legendary J.P. Morgan (the man the institution is named for) told Congress in sworn testimony …

“Money is gold and nothing else.”

(You can read it yourself on page 5 of this transcript)

So money, cash, and investments are THREE different things as far as Kiyosaki is concerned. Makes sense to us.

But back to Buffett …

We’re guessing Warren Buffett views gold as simply a widget people like to buy … like furniture or houses … without any expectation of income.

Buffett also owns an $800 million stake in Fruit of the Loom. We doubt he considers underwear an investment.

So just as real estate investors like Kiyosaki buy properties for cash flow, Buffett buys businesses that cash flow … BUT …

… to be bullish on a business, you must believe their product will have durable and growing demand … along with a sustainable competitive edge.

So while Buffett may not like gold as an investment, he apparently likes it as a product. And who can blame him? The demand is big and strong.

A growing number of people and institutions …including central banks … consider gold an alternative to currency and bonds as a liquid reserve.

That could be Lesson #7.

But whether YOU think gold has any role to play in your personal portfolio, Buffett’s surprising move contains a LOT of lessons and insights all investors can learn from.

Good news for real estate in time of crisis …

A 5-minute muse …

After several weeks of confronting the brutal facts with our COVID-19 Crisis Investing Series …

… and chasing shiny objects in our Making Sense of Silver Series …

… it’s time to consider the BRIGHT SIDE of the crisis for REAL ESTATE investors.

So grab a lollipop, slather on some sunscreen, saddle up the unicorn, and let’s trot to the pot of gold at the end of the real estate rainbow …

 

U.S. Junk Bond Market Sets Record-Low Coupon in Relentless Rally
– Bloomberg, 8/10/20

“ … junk bonds at record-low yields amid a rally triggered by the Federal Reserve’s historic support for the market and heavy inflows into funds that buy the risky debt.”

 

Don’t see the sunshine yet? Hang tight …

 

“Can-maker Ball Corp. pays 2.875% yield on 10-year debt. Rate is the lowest ever for new issue due in at least five years.”

 

“Record low” … “historic” … those are words used to describe EXTREME events.

And sure enough …

 

Desperate hunt for yield forces investors to take ‘extreme risk’
– Financial Times, 7/26/20

The hunt for yield is getting harder than ever for fixed-income investors.”

“Roughly 86 percent of the $60 trillion global bond market … yields no higher than 2 percent — a record proportion – with more than 60 percent … yielding less than 1 percent …”

 

In case it’s not yet obvious, the Financial Times continues …

 

“This has pushed investors into riskier segments in search of income, compelling them to lend to lower-quality companies and countries.”

 

In the classic movie, Papillon, the hero gets tossed into solitary confinement and is fed only small amounts of bread and water.

To survive, he eats the insects crawling around inside his cell.

GROSS, right?

But starving people do extreme things. Remember the Donner party. (Not sure we’d call that a party.)

Spoiler alert: Yield starved paper asset investors might even stoop to investing in real estate.

So … are interest rates headed up any time soon?

According to Peter Schiffthe Fed is trapped in a monetary policy “roach motel” of their own making.

Ten years of zero interest rates to “fix” the 2008 crisis created an even MORE HUGE bond bubble (high bond prices create low interest rates).

Those bloated bonds are margined and splattered all over the balance sheets of “too big to fail” (TBTF) institutions throughout the global financial system.

If rates tick up … even a little … bond prices fall and those bond-bloated balance sheets implode … taking the financial system with it.

It’s like you owning hundreds of houses with 90% financing controlled by special mortgages which require 10% equity at ALL times.

If the property price falls, you MUST sell (at a loss) or pay down the loan to 90% of the CURRENT (now lower) value. That’s called a margin call.

Of course, if there’s not enough cash, you need to dump your houses on the market, which crashes the price, creating more losses and margin calls.

Avalanche!

This predicament is foreign to real estate investors because mortgages don’t work that way. But it’s commonplace on Wall Street.

So if the Fed lets rates rise, it implodes the bond bubble and crashes the financial system. That’s why they’re trapped and the dollar is on the altar.

So it seems Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is likely the norm … as long as the Fed can print dollars to buy bonds.

But again … while ZIRP might save the financial system … it’s starving income investors. That’s the problem … and the opportunity.

So, in desperation, these yield-starved investors are dumpster diving looking for scraps of yield anywhere they can find it.

Enter the Real Estate Fairy Godmother …

 

“My child, why eat garbage in Oz when real yield awaits you in Kansas?”

 

Real estate investors know it’s not rocket science to find yields over 2 percent. And real estate investors are HAPPY to pay 3 or 4 percent to borrow.

Real estate arguably provides far more attractive risk-adjusted returns than junk bonds.

So Main Street real estate can feed the yields these income-starved investors need … if only they knew how to use their ruby slippers to get back to reality.

Instead, they’re crawling around junk bond markets devouring what amounts to return-free risk. After all, after inflation and tax, how much real yield is there on 2.875% annualized? Not much, if any.

Meanwhile, there’s a growing rag-tag army of real estate entrepreneurs serving up hot deals on Main Street. It’s like a soup kitchen for yield-starved investors.

But Mom and Pop paper asset investors don’t know about it. So they’re buying the junk food they’re sold.

Robert Kiyosaki has complained for years about the lack of real financial education in the school system and mainstream media.

In fact, you’re probably reading this … or listening to our podcast … or watching our renewed and improved YouTube channel because …

… mainstream financial media’s mission is to promote and protect Wall Street and the paper asset casinos. They ignore real estate. They don’t understand you and they don’t talk to you.

Sure, Wall Street might discuss home builder stocks, REITs, and hedge funds as vehicles to funnel money through Wall Street into real estate and mortgages.

But there are layers of limousines, penthouses, private jets, and big bonuses between individual investors on Main Street and the Main Street real estate producing the profits.

Seems like a whole lot of skimming going on.

We think a flatter model … where Main Street invests directly in Main Street can help #cancelwallstreet … (could this be a movement?)

It keeps more meat on the bone for the people doing the real work … Main Street savers (the money) and Main Street syndicators (the deals).

The pot of gold at the end of the real estate rainbow …

Some of the Fed’s TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS of new dollars will eventually find their way into real estate.

Consider how real estate is WAY better than bonds for yield-starved income investors …

First, real estate’s yields are higher. Plus, they’re backed by real collateral.

Compare that to a junk bond. What if Ball Can can’t pay? What do the bond holders get? Cans?

When you buy a mortgage (i.e., lend against real estate), and the borrower goes bust … you get the property AND the rent.

As a landlord, if the tenant fails, you can put in a new one. The income is more diversified.

But if Ball Can defaults on their bond, the lenders can’t just insert another borrower to take over the payments. It’s single point failure.

Sure, there’s hassle in the real estate. But when things go bad, there’s also places to land before total loss.

When Wall Street “works” on paper, it feels good and seems easy. But when it doesn’t work, it can fall apart fast and there’s no plan B … except the Fed.

The Power That Be (the PTB) have your back too.

Wall Street Wizards feed their families (and their egos) betting on the Fed “put”.

They know the Fed will print UNLIMITED dollars to bail out bad bets.

So it’s all upside for the gamblers, while the downside is subsidized by all dollar-holders everywhere. But the world is waking up to this game.

Meanwhile, like it or not, agree or disagree that it’s fair or not, the fact is that real estate investors enjoy support from the Fed and Washington too.

Yes, it’s true politicians sometimes vilify landlords (as they do Wall Street … wink, wink) and occasionally throw down some public-appeasing rhetoric or legislation.

But it’s mostly theater. The Fed and the politicians NEED real estate investors.

Watch what they DO … not what they say.

Consider the notion that COVID-19 crisis stimulus … PPP loans, enhanced unemployment, and direct-deposits into Main Street bank accounts … are indirectly aimed at real estate.

That’s because stimulus funds help make sure people have money to pay their rents and mortgages.

It’s intended to flow through the recipients and their landlords to the lenders. In fact, the entire financial system is designed to do this.

Real estate investors position themselves in the flow of funds in order to create cash flow and equity.

As long as the debt-fueled system exists, real estate is arguably the BEST tool to benefit from it.

Remember, real estate serves an essential human need … and is particularly important in the financial system the PTB protect.

So unless private property rights are abolished, or Uncle Sam gives everyone a free house, or Elon Musk invents a new tech to shelter people without land …

 real estate will be with us for the long term and remains high on the priority list for everyone from Main Street to Wall Street to Washington DC.

It’s disconcerting when the earth is shaking beneath your feet. The current crisis is nerve-racking. Loose hands and weak wills are going to get bucked.

But if there’s a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow when the stormy clouds clear … and we’re guessing it will be sitting on a piece of real estate.

Keep calm and keep cash flowing.

The big story is getting BIGGER …

As Ernest Hemingway famously wrote in The Sun Also Rises …

“How did you go bankrupt?”

“Two ways: Gradually, then suddenly.”

Of course, this isn’t the only great excerpt from this classic book …

“Everyone behaves badly … given the chance.”

These two excerpts sum up the world’s financial condition … and the policymakers who’ve been driving the ship … into the ground.

More of Hemingway’s writings seem fitting for this day and age …

“You can’t get away from yourself by moving from one place to another.”

“Do you ever get the feeling that all your life is going by and you’re not taking advantage of it?”

Ahhh … where to begin?

Last time, we said silver is signaling weakness in the dollar, which at the time was the only currency not already at all-time lows against gold.

Of course, the ink was barely dry on our computer screen when the dollar dropped hard against gold … as gold blew through its record high in dollars to flirt with $2000 an ounce.

If you agree with J.P. Morgan when he told Congress, “gold is money” … which relegates the dollar to merely a currency useful for trading (at best) …

… then you probably understand gold didn’t moveThe dollar fell.

Of course, ever since Nixon broke the global gold standard in 1971, currencies “float” … which means currencies change value in relation to each other.

If that’s confusing, that’s because it is. And when you lose your bearings, it’s hard to tell up from down.

Imagine jumping out of an airplane with a team of skydivers. You’re all in free fall. But as you look at each other, you appear to be floating together.

But if someone opens their chute and slows their descent while you don’t … from your vantage point, they went UP. But did they?

Of course not. They’re just falling more slowly than you.

The reference point of the solid ground rising up below is how you know. The ground appears to be rising, but it’s not moving up. You’re falling. And so is the person who pulled their chute and appears to you to be rising.

So if you’ve ever wondered how gold could be rising in one currency and falling in another, now you know.

Gold is the solid reference point which exposes what’s really happening with currencies. It’s accountability.

That’s why we watch it … and think you should too.

Right now, gold is shining a bright light on something all investors … real estate and otherwise … should be paying attention to.

But don’t take our word for it. Check out these recent headlines …

Goldman Sachs boosts gold price target, says the dollar’s reserve status is at risk
– Yahoo Finance, 7/28/20

Goldman warns the dollar’s grip on global markets might be over
– Bloomberg, 7/28/20

US dollar at risk of sudden collapse? Ex-IMF official warns “blow-up event” could sink currency as debt mounts
– South China Morning Post, 7/24/20

How might the dollar lose its reserve status? How might America go bankrupt?

Gradually. Then suddenly.

Meanwhile, professional money watchers are baffled …

Gold prices hit all-time high, and it’s a bit of a mystery why
– MoneyWatch via CBS News – 7/28/20

Yes. Things make no sense when you have the wrong reference point.

When you can’t think outside the dollar … when you think the dollar is eternal, immovable, invincible, the center of the monetary solar system … it’s confusing.

A similar confusion plagued astronomers who believed the sun and planets revolved around the Earth …

Retrograde motion [planets moving backwards in orbit] … had early astronomers … thoroughly confused … it was impossible for them to come up with a solution that also fit with the popular idea that Earth was the center of the solar system. Not until … Copernicus placed the sun at the center of the solar system did all that retrograde motion suddenly make sense. – Livescience

We’ve previously discussed ways real estate investors can be directly affected by a falling dollar. So we won’t repeat that here.

But it’s not just real estate investors affected. It’s everyone everywhere …

King dollar’s decline ripples across the globe
Reuters, 7/28/20

“ … adding fuel to a global momentum rally that has boosted prices for everything from technology stocks to gold.”

No wonder Americans are enamored of the stock market … even in the midst of what is likely an economic depression, everything is UP … in dollar terms.

It makes no sense.

This is “asset price inflation” in NOMINAL terms … it takes more dollars to buy the same assets. “Nominal” means in numbers … unadjusted for inflation.

So the nominal value of a 3-bedroom house might go from $50,000 to $250,000. But the actual utility value … how many people it will sleep … is exactly the same. The house isn’t worth more in the real world.

Obviously, when you measure your entire everything in a currency whose value fluctuates, it’s easy to suffer from “nominal” confusion.

In fact, bankers and politicians make their living on creating and capitalizing on nominal confusion.

Nominal confusion tricks people and societies whose wealth is falling and economies are shrinking into thinking their wealth and economies are growing.

Because they are growing … in nominal terms … denominated in dollars. But there aren’t more jobs, more production, more real world value.

Nominal distortions can show “growth” in dollars, while employment, production, and purchasing power all fall.

In real world metrics, wealth is shrinking. The only thing growing is the number of dollars. Trillions of them in fact. Conjured out of thin air.

The cure to nominal confusion is to think outside the dollar …

When you ask Ken McElroy (Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Advisor for Real Estate) how much real estate he owns … he doesn’t tell you a dollar amount … or even how many properties.

Instead, Kenny tells you how many “doors” he owns. He measures his wealth by doors.

Doors represent the REAL asset … a tenant who goes to work every day and earns a paycheck and sends a third of it to Ken and his investors as rent.

THAT is real wealth.

If you own a 32-door apartment, you have 32 tenants. If you paid $1 million and it goes “up” to $2 million, it’s nice. Equity happens.

But you still have only 32 tenants. You didn’t add anything of real value.

And if everything else is going “up” too, your extra million may not make you relatively richer.

It’s only when you use debt to magnify equity growth faster than inflation that you can become relatively richer.

When you denominate your wealth in units of REAL value … ounces of gold and silver, acres of land, barrels of oil production, tons of agricultural production, number of tenants …

… it doesn’t matter whether you trade in dollars, yuan, SDRs, bitcoin, buckskins, banana peels, or seashells.

REAL assets always have REAL value relative to each other. And when you add units of REAL value to your portfolio, your relative wealth grows.

It’s not about collecting dollars. It’s about collecting real assets.

“Assets minus liabilities equals net worth” works in accounting class and bank loan applications, but not in the real world.

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve could just print trillions of dollars inflate asset prices, and make the United States and Americans rich … nominally.

But it’s the only tool in the Fed’s kit, so they’re printing away. But precious metals say the world isn’t buying it.

Or more accurately, they’re not buying the dollar.

On Main Street, there are folks who look at their Wall Street produced financial statements and THINK they’re rich.

They’re nominally confused. If you own 100 shares of stock in a company whose sales and profits are declining … but the share price doubles in dollars …

… you still own 100 shares of a failing company. How are you richer?

Meanwhile, there are thousands of millionaire-next-door real estate investors with 20-30% of their tenants’ income flowing to them each month … often tax-free … who are richer in a more real, resilient way.

Of course, a depressed economy creates challenges for real estate investors too. There’s no easy street in a crisis.

But we don’t think you need to be afraid of a falling dollar. Just prepared. In fact, if you play it right, you’ll probably end up doing quite well.

Income property, mortgages and precious metals in the right combination are arguably the ideal tools to short a falling dollar and build real relative wealth.

We’ll have more to say on this very soon … stay tuned.

Meanwhile, keep your head in the game. The world is changing from gradually to suddenly.

This isn’t the time to “Wait and See”. It’s time to “Think and Do”.

What skyrocketing silver prices means to real estate investors …

It sounds BAD… but it can be VERY good …

As we write, silver is soaring … from $18 to $23 (a 27% gain) in just a few days.

Equity happens … in metals too!

We’ve been talking about precious metals for years. Watching metals is one of the important lessons from the 2008 crisis.

What do rising silver prices mean to real estate investors?

First, silver and gold are important financial system gauges … providing valuable clues about the future of money and wealth.

Precious metals are considered attractive alternatives to dollars in the bank … and to equity in real estate as vehicles to store wealth.

Precious metals tend to combine the best features of both cash and real estate equity. There’s a LOT more to say on this, but we’ll save it for another day.

For now, remember real estate equity is illiquid … exposed to creditors and predators … and hard to protect in a foreclosure.

Meanwhile, dollars have a long history of losing value. It’s a big reason why equity happens and leveraged real estate is a great investment.

Also, dollars stored in a bank are subject to nasty things called counterparty risk and bail-ins … which few depositors are aware of. It’s a reward-free risk.

Of course, converting real estate equity and dollars into precious metals mitigates many of these risks. And done right, this strategy can significantly outgrow inflation and help you build resilient wealth.

This is a hot topic right now, so we’re preparing a tutorial on it. To be notified when it’s ready, email [email protected].

Meanwhile, back to the clues in the news and soaring silver prices …

Gold and silver are considered “monetary” metals. They’re money.

Many people confuse “money” with “currency” because they used to be one and the same.

But money and currency are divorced now. Strategies which worked when they were married don’t work so well today.

The lesson is … when fundamental parts of the financial system change, strategies, and tactics should be updated.

Right now, rising silver prices could be foreshadowing a fundamental shift we’ve been watching for.

Gold’s already there, which makes silver’s move noteworthy because …

Gold and silver are similar … but different.

It’s kind of like the penthouse and the warehouse.

While gold gets to prance around at the “monetary metal” ball … hobnobbing with central banks and uber-rich investors …

… silver is often relegated to working-class status as an “industrial metal”.

This is because silver is cheaper than gold and is an essential component in many products, including solar panels and cell phones.

So while gold finds its way into fancy jewelry and safe deposit boxes … silver ends up conducting electrical current before being buried in a landfill.

But sometimes Cinderella silver gets invited to the monetary ball. And it looks like it just happened.

It’s a safe bet industry is suppressed. Lock-downs do that. So the big spike in silver probably isn’t due to industrial demand.

Of course, we’re not precious metals experts, but we know several.

One of our favorite commentators monitors an esoteric metric which helps distinguish paper trading from physical demand. It’s an important distinction we’ll delve into shortly.

In a recent article, Keith Weiner writes …

“… the [silver] buying which drove the price up so much was … buying of physical metal.”

What does this mean and why does it matter?

Seems to us if physical demand is up, and it’s not from industrial demand, then it may be silver is now on the MONETARY metal bandwagon.

That is, people and institutions could be buying silver to stack in their safes.

Perhaps a clue that dollar holders are losing faith in the dollar. And there are several trillion reasons why this would be.

Of course, gold’s surge supports this. Gold is quickly approaching the all-time high last reached in 2011.

As we noted then, central banks bought physical gold in record amounts in 2019. As the ultimate currency insiders, maybe they knew something?

In any case, it seems today more people are trading in dollars for gold.

If true, you’d expect dollar weakness … and along comes this Reuters headline …

Battered U.S. dollar ‘hanging by a thread’ as coronavirus cases grow

Here’s the concern … something we’ve watched for a while …

The primary reason the Federal Reserve can create unlimited dollars without disaster (think Zimbabwe or Venezuela) is the U.S. dollar reigns as the world’s reserve currency.

This “exorbitant privilege” creates huge demand for dollars all over the world.

So although those newbie dollars might be Made in the USA (who says we don’t make anything?) …

… but they’re funneled around the globe through federal spending on military, foreign aid, international loans, and a host of the things.

Even those stimulus dollars deposited directly into citizens’ checkbooks find their way to China … as consumers buy Chinese stuff from Wal-Mart and Amazon. U.S. trade deficits funnel dollars overseas.

This means Americans don’t feel the full devaluation of their dollars … the rest of the world soaks up much of the excess.

But consider this …

If sending dollars overseas suppresses domestic inflation, what happens if (when) those excess dollars come back?

Ironically, as chronicled in our Real Asset Investing Report … China is leading the charge to de-dollarize the world. Russia’s on board too.

Rising gold prices … and now soaring silver prices combined with physical demand … could be indicators of a growing migration out of dollars.

This is a big deal when set against the backdrop of unprecedented Fed printing … and public officials’ denials. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

In 2008, we were told the sub-prime problem was contained … how’d that work out?

‘We want a stable dollar,’ says U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: ‘It is the reserve currency of the world and we’re going to protect that’

– MarketWatch, 7/23/20

Here’s the problem …

The way we understand it, to save a struggling financial system, the Fed MUST create MANY TRILLIONS of fresh dollars … more than ever.

Those new dollars buy bonds to suppress interest rates … another topic we’ve addressed before.

Of course, as long as enough people trust and accept all these brand-new dollars, it’s business as usual.

BUT if dollar-holders revolt, then a lot of SHIFT HAPPENS …

Interest rates could rise. When lenders think they’ll get paid back with highly depreciated dollars, they’ll demand compensation.

Are you prepared for the possibility of spiking interest rates?

Credit markets could implode. Think 2008 on steroids. Rising rates are kryptonite to the mighty-but-leveraged balance sheets of nearly every financial player.

Are you prepared for a world without cheap and abundant credit?

Commodity and energy prices could rise faster from inflation than they drop from depreciation based on depressed demand.

Are you prepared for tenants to have more of their income consumed by food and energy?

We’re not saying all of this will happen … maybe none of it will. But there are rational reasons to think it could.

As we often say …

“Better to be prepared and not have a crisis, than to have a crisis and not be prepared.”

Except this time, a crisis isn’t a “maybe”. It’s here … moving methodically through a progression of crises aimed at a currency crisis.

Ironically, the Fed’s attempts to stop it could cause it. Peter Schiff has been warning of this for years. Now we’re here.

Of course, we certainly don’t have all the answers. But we’re paying attention and working hard to stay ahead of it.

And it’s not all bad.

In fact, there should be a lot of opportunity. We’re sad for those who get blind-sided but excited for those of us who are aware and prepared.

Quality properties will likely be available at great bargains … IF you’re in a position to purchase them.

Many affluent folks could be looking for syndicators to help them move money out of Wall Street onto Main Street.

The landscape for syndication just got better.

NOW is the time to prepare for these possibilities. But it may require thinking outside the box you’ve been in for the last decade.

The world is changing in BIG ways … and very fast. Your investing strategy and tactics probably need to change too.

So stay tuned … and we’ll keep the ideas and insights coming.

Golden Opportunity with a Silver Lining — Crisis Hedging with Precious Metals

We’re living in a time when the U.S. dollar is under pressure to support a struggling global economy. 

So, investors are joining central banks and turning to precious metals to hedge up their portfolios. 

Gold and silver are solid forms of liquid reserves. As the COVID-19 health crisis evolves into an economic pandemic … real estate investors should consider these malleable assets. 

Our good friend Dana Samuelson is here to talk about precious metals and investors like YOU. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your shiny gold host, Robert Helms
  • His tarnished co-host, Russell Gray
  • Precious metals expert, Dana Samuelson

Listen


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Hedging strategies for your portfolio

Today we’re talking about the safety and hedging strategies real estate investors can employ with precious metals. 

Real estate investors tend to look at life … and investing … transactionally. But traditional investing is really about building a portfolio. 

A portfolio consists of different components. When you apply portfolio theory to your real estate investing, you can use some of the same financial strategies that paper asset investors enjoy using the real assets you prefer. 

What are real assets? Real assets are things that are physical and tangible. They don’t really rely upon a counterparty risk. 

Building a portfolio of diverse real assets is important … and today we’re talking about a component that can be an important part of your portfolio mix. 

There’s the possibility that because of this economic shutdown, the Federal Reserve is going to print so many dollars that it will begin to damage currency. How do you hedge against that?

One way is to invest in assets that don’t have counterparty risk … like precious metals. 

Dollars haven’t existed forever … but gold and silver have. 

Why gold and silver?

Our guest today knows a lot about these precious metals … Dana Samuelson. Dana is one of the best resources out there on gold and silver investing. 

“Gold and silver are malleable, so they have been used as money and currency since ancient times,” Dana says. 

Unlike paper money, gold doesn’t really change its value. It is the same today as it was a hundred years ago in terms of purchasing power … in fact, it has actually gained value against printed currencies over the hundred years. 

Gold is up over $300 an ounce in the last 12 months relative to the dollar. 

One thing investors do need to understand is that when you buy an ounce of gold, it doesn’t have an ROI. It doesn’t earn interest. 

What it does is preserve its value at whatever time, place, and currency you want to compare it to going forward. 

So, we don’t all think of gold and silver as investments as much as we do a hedge against inflation and a way to keep money safe. 

Gold and silver have always been fantastic as far as preserving purchasing power, and there are multiple ways to invest in metals. 

Ways to invest in precious metals

You can of course buy precious metals outright by the ounce. But you can also invest in funds. You can invest in ETFs. You can even invest in mining companies. 

But, many of the alternatives to buying gold and silver outright do come with some counterparty risk. That’s why buying metals outright is so popular. 

When people think of gold bullion, they think of gold bars. These bars are minted privately. Most major mints have since replaced bars with round bullion pieces in the United States. 

The U.S. mint has been making one-ounce gold and silver Eagles since 1986. Other countries … like Canada, South Africa, China, Australia, and Austria … also make round coins as alternatives to bars. 

Up until 1933, people had a choice on the street between a $20 gold coin or a $20 paper bill. 

That means that there are a lot of older, classic coins that survive today and are many times scarcer than modern bullion pieces. These coins have collector value that is above and beyond their intrinsic metal value. 

Just like in real estate, there are typically additional fees when you buy or sell coins, but those are fairly nominal. 

In the past few months, Dana has seen a strong demand for the physical product of gold and silver coins. 

Getting into the game

What advice does Dana have for new investors to the precious metals game?

“I would try and determine what your overall strategy is and how much you really want to put into this market over, say, the next six months,” Dana says. “I would definitely get started sooner rather than later.”

Dana recommends cost averaging your purchases over the next two to four months since precious metals tend to sell off with stocks as people rush to liquidity. 

Cost averaging is a great way to get in and keep your prices low. 

You can also look at the gold to silver ratio to see how many parts of silver it takes to equal one part of gold. Simply divide the gold price by the silver price. 

Historically that ratio has been anywhere from 20:1 to 40:1. In the past several weeks, that ratio has moved all the way up to as high as 125:1 … which means silver is dirt cheap. 

One reason silver is lagging behind gold is that gold represents true portable wealth. “You can carry $150K to $200K worth of gold in your hands. It’s about the size of a paperback novel,” Dana says. 

Silver, Dana says, is more spending money to use on the street if there is a problem with currency. 

“I would advise listeners to think about allocating 40% of their funds to gold and maybe 60% to silver right now,” Dana says. 

For more about investing in precious metals … listen to the full episode!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Podcast: Ask The Guys – Scaling Up, Credit Lines, and Pandemic Prepping

Another exhilarating edition of Ask The Guys … your great questions and our questionable answers.

This time, we tackle topics about going from tiny to mighty … how to use credit lines strategically BEFORE they disappear …. how to prepare NOW for the investment problems and opportunities likely to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic … and MORE!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Podcast: Golden Opportunity with a Silver Lining – Crisis Hedging with Precious Metals

With so much pressure on the U.S. dollar to support the collapsing global economy, alert investors are joining central banks and turning to precious metals to hedge.

Gold and silver are forms of liquid reserves even Main Street real estate investors should consider as the COVID-19 health crisis mutates into an economic pandemic. So tune in as we talk precious metals with our good friend and gold expert, Dana Samuelson.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

Gold & Silver

Gold & Silver

 

Protect yourself against inflation and preserve wealth with precious metals … lasting assets with lasting value!

 

 

This is still true now!  Gold and silver are REAL assets with REAL value … and an unwavering rock for core stability in any investors portfolio. 

Precious metals are ALWAYS worth something … and tend to become more valuable when paper money fails.  In actuality, gold and silver HOLD their VALUE while other currencies continue to be devalued by governments and banking institutions. 

That’s why gold and silver have been at the core of wealth and monetary systems for centuries, and why  … smart investors look to these assets to preserve personal wealth and hedge against inflation. 

Precious metals like gold and silver are one of the few asset classes that hold their purchasing power in times of uncertainty. 

In fact, after the 2008 housing crisis, Gold and silver overperformed projections as demand soared for the next few years … 

And in 2020 … Public demand for deliverable hard asset precious metals is actually stronger than in 2009

And you can’t just pull out a printing press and produce more gold and silver to meet increasing demand on a moment’s notice.  

Some argue against the metals because of their lack of liquidity, but when you find yourself needing liquidity …

 You can borrow against your gold and silver reserves! 

In addition to being desirable and valuable … Silver offers significant utility as well!  It is an essential material for electronics, cell phones, solar panels, and consumer products like jewelry, silverware, and mirrors. 

As silver is more abundant than gold, it is less expensive and can be bought in more incremental varieties and liquitied in smaller incremental quantities as well. 

One thing to pay attention to for spotting opportunities in the precious metals space is the gold/silver ratio … measuring the strength of gold versus silver prices. This ratio shows investors how many ounces of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. So, a ratio of 25 to 1 means it takes 25 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. 

The gold/silver ratio can be a valuable tool to determine the right time to buy gold or silver.  Some investors choose to buy silver when the ratio is high and switch to buying gold when the ratio falls. No matter how you buy …

Gold and silver are lasting assets to secure your portfolio with lasting value! 

Explore the resources below to get to know this market better … 

Radio Shows

Reports & Articles

Online Content

Upcoming Events

Boots-on-the-Ground Teams

Clues in The News

American Gold Exchange – Dana Samuelson

American Gold Exchange – Dana Samuelson

 

Trust American Gold Exchange when buying and selling gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins and bars.

The savvy investor knows that precious metals diversify any real estate investment portfolio AND protect against inflation. American Gold Exchange (AGE) is your one-stop shop for valuable coins and bullion from all over the world.

AGE specializes in dealer-to-dealer trade and direct-to-public sales. Their deeply rooted industry connections help them keep prices low and quality high.

The dedicated experts at AGE track gold market trends … so they can give you the most accurate information AND offer the best products.

Find superior quality assets effortlessly with AGE’s HUGE inventory … from U.S. silver coins to international gold bullion coins.

Get ahead of the curve in market trends by consulting with AGE.  Walk away from each transaction feeling confident and comfortable … Dana’s team always takes great care of The Real Estate Guys™ and our friends. 

Fill out the form below, and a representative at American Gold Exchange will be in touch!

 


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