This is a SHOCK! … said no one

We’re proudly filing this under the category of “We told you so.” ….

Stripe workers who relocate get $20,000 bonus and a pay cut
– Bloomberg, 9/15/20

“Stripe Inc. plans to make a one-time payment of $20,000 to employees who opt to move out of San Francisco, New York or Seattle, but also cut their base salary by as much as 10% …”

“… companies … have expanded opportunities for employees to work remotely while also signaling … pay cuts if workers move to less-expensive cities.”

“VMware Inc. … Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and ServiceNow Inc. have all considered similar measures.”

Of course, we could just as easily file this under “Duh.”

After all, when companies discovered they could move jobs to China and Mexico to save money and increase profits, they did.

Modern tech empowers remote working.

And while many info workers might not be keen on moving overseas … moving to low cost, low tax, good quality of life states is not just palatable … it’s appealing.

The COVID-19 lock-downs have forced businesses into improving their remote workforce management … opening everyone up to a win-win move.

Companies LOWER their labor expenses, while employees improve their NET lifestyle in more affordable markets.

Also obviously, this has implications for the demand for real estate … housing, office, retail … in both the markets losing and those gaining people and their paychecks.

This is just one of many trends the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated, though likely still in its infancy … and worth watching.

That’s why we created the COVID-19 Crisis Investing video series … and why we’re getting regular updates from our Boots-on-the-Ground correspondents.

Shift is happening … and faster than usual.

Investing in this environment is like driving a car … the faster you go, the farther up the road you need to look so you have time to react well.

Here’s another noteworthy article with insights which are a little more challenging to decipher, but worth the effort …

The Death of the 60/40 Portfolio
– Yahoo Finance, 9/6/20

“That’s stock talk. It doesn’t apply to me. I’m a real estate investor!”

Really?

Well, before you click away to check the latest mortgage rates or political pandering, consider …

While 60/40 refers to a typical Wall Street portfolio allocation model for a mix of stocks and bonds.

The reason it’s been a staple … and the reason it’s changing … is highly relevant to real estate investors.

“The biggest takeaway is that Woodard’s team is more confident than ever that … interest rates … will likely … move considerably higher … arguing that investors should start to move away from bonds in their current allocations.”

The “Woodard” they’re referring to is Jared Woodard, Head of the Research Investment Committee for Bank of America Research.

So he’s well-qualified to have an opinion worth contemplating.

But it’s not just rising interest rates that are interesting to real estate investors …

(though that’s a compelling reason to secure as much low-cost long-term debt as you can while you can)

… but his recommendation to “move away from bonds” is important.

So in another “surprise said no one” moment, are reports the two biggest U.S. bondholders in the world (China and Japan) have already started “moving away”.

That’s because when rates rise, bond values fall.

And like any bubble … when bondholders head for the exits en masse, it sets off a very disrupting chain of events in the macro-strata of the financial system.

Of course, as you might suspect … it all rolls downhill onto the often unsuspecting denizens of Main Street.

The reason it’s SO extreme is because of the way bonds are used in the financial system.

In real estate terms, they’re used like properties with equity. The owners borrow against them to raise more cash to lever into more “assets”.

Except these loans against bonds come with margin provisions … which means if the value of the bond falls, you’re either forced to sell at a loss or borrow more.

The point is when balance sheets at every tier of the financial system are stuffed with leveraged bonds …

… a collapse of bond prices is a BIG problem for everyone … including real estate investors. Remember 2008.

(Yes, we know we’ve covered this before. But although the asteroid is moving slowly towards Earth, it still seems important to talk about it and prepare.)

Of course, in 2008 bonds collapsed because of a higher than expected default rate in sub-prime loans.

Yes, it’s true, that was then and this is now. But with an economy still largely locked-down, headlines like this should surprise … no one …

Lower-Credit Homeowners Weigh Heavily on U.S. Mortgage Market
– Bloomberg, 9/15/20

But whether it’s sub-prime borrowers defaulting, large foreign holders dumping, interest rates rising, or leveraged bond-loans going bad …

It doesn’t matter WHY bond values fall … if they do, it’s a threat to the financial system.

The fix, of course, is lots of dollar printing by the Fed, which (as we’ve been saying and saying and saying) puts a lot of pressure on the dollar 

Dethroned Dollar Is Making Waves Across Markets, in Five Charts
– Bloomberg, 9/15/20

Of course, as this article points out, there are different tactics for investors to mitigate risk and capture opportunity …

“Savvas Savouri at Toscafund Asset Management recommends switching out of conventional Treasuries and into inflation-protected securities.”

“’The simple reality is that the only feasible way to get the U.S. to the preferred inflation target is through a dollar devaluation,’”

The article also mentions gold as an alternative tool for the job …

“The dollar’s decline has also helped thrust gold onto center stage … some investors are betting that [gold] bullion will prove a better haven than Treasuries as inflation bites …”

So while there’s a fair amount of consensus about the challenges … there are variations on how to best address it.

And in yet another “surprise … said no one ever” moment …

… real estate is completely missing from mainstream financial media’s discussion of potential solutions.

That’s like heading out to a job site and leaving your best power tools at the workshop. Then again, if you don’t know how to use them, what good are they?

Of course, any talk about the what, why, and how of real estate investing is completely omitted because (in our not-so-humble opinion) mainstream financial media exists to protect and promote Wall Street.

That’s probably why YOU are here. It’s certainly why we are.

The GOOD NEWS is, whether you’re investing in your own account or organizing syndications with private investors …

… there’s a LOT of opportunity RIGHT NOW to use the right real estate as the foundation of a resilient real asset portfolio.

The GREAT news is that even though things are moving faster than normal …

… there’s still time to build your knowledge and relationships and to organize your life and portfolio to get in on the action.

The asteroid hasn’t struck yet … and while it may not … better to be prepared and not have a crisis than to have a crisis catch you unaware and unprepared.

We’re working hard to step-up the volume of ideas, resources, people and opportunities we share with you right now … because we think the times demand it.

There’s a “new normal” on the horizon …

… and while real estate is real, essential and a time-tested vehicle for wealth building and preservation …

… there are new rules and strategies emerging … because market conditions are dramatically shifting.

So be SURE to subscribe to our re-launched YouTube channel, follow us on Facebook, and of course, subscribe to the podcast.

When you support ALL our distribution outlets with your listens, views, likes, shares, comments, questions, and reviews …

… you make it easier for us to attract the guests and resources necessary to produce more and better content for you.

We appreciate you … and look forward to thriving through this crisis with you.

Until next time … good investing!

Build-to-Rent Residential in Central Florida – Affordable and New

Many people ask us what the best way is to get started in long distance landlording.

THE ANSWER … buy an affordable, brand new property in one of the best markets in the country. 

We’re taking a deeper look into how one innovative developer is building new residential properties especially for investors like YOU. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your good as new host, Robert Helms
  • His very affordable co-host, Russell Gray
  • Veteran Central Florida real estate broker, Jean Gillen
  • Build-to-Rent real estate developer, Wagner Nolasco

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Sunny Central Florida

All real estate markets are not created equal. With the current COVID-19 crisis, there are markets that have weathered the storm pretty well while others are in complete disarray. 

The thing is … people and money and business don’t just go away. They do, however, move around. The key is to see where they are going. 

When you can see that, you see that there is going to be an opportunity on the opposite side of a problem. 

Today, we’re taking a look at a market that’s cheap, cheerful, and affordable … Central Florida. 

As more people are realizing that they can work from anywhere, they are asking themselves where they would like to live. 

Central Florida has great weather, sunshine, and things to do. It has been one of our favorite markets for many years … and it’s not really one market. 

It’s a huge area with multiple exciting markets within it. 

Today we’re learning why it is that Central Florida continues to do well in spite of COVID-19 from two people who really know this market well … Jean Gillen and Wagner Nolasco. 

People want cheap and cheerful

Jean Gillen has been in this business for a long time as a realtor … and her specialty is helping investors. 

As a realtor, Jean understands that the investment market is kind of unique. She knows what investors are looking for and what they need to make a great deal happen. 

“The biggest thing we have found out through this pandemic is that one of the places a lot of people want to move to is Florida,” Jean says. “We’re cheap, and we’re cheerful.”

For example, someone moving from California and buying a $200,000 house is getting a home that is equivalent to a $1.5 million house on the West Coast. 

If you look at a Central Florida parking lot and take a look at the license plates, you can see where folks are moving from … Illinois, New York, Arkansas, Missouri. 

Central Florida has tons of new jobs in growing industries like space and tech … with over 400 new employers on the “space coast.”

And don’t forget about those lovely retirement communities and the fact that there is no state income tax. 

One thing that is important for investors to know and remember is that only 60% of the land in Florida is built on. 

Jean and her team target homes on infill lots at about a quarter of an acre with amenities and neighbors already in place. 

But what about hurricanes?

“We do not worry so much about hurricanes. We do have hurricanes, but we are able to prepare. And, with 2020 construction, the homes really can withstand a lot,” Jean says. 

In Florida, investors will want to purchase a cement block house. The facade can be different, but the cement block structure means you’re ready to weather any storm … and the resell value will be higher. 

Standards for 2020 construction reduce the amount of insurance you have to have on your home. The average insurance for a $215,000 home is about $49 a month. 

Why brand new?

A couple of years ago, Jean introduced us to Wagner Nolasco. Wagner is a home builder who has teamed up with Jean to provide the type of housing that is in demand for investors today. 

They’re building single family homes … ground up construction, brand new … but literally in the path of progress and growth in these Central Floridian communities. 

There are many advantages to an investor buying a brand new house. 

“I’ve done over 400 turnkey properties in my career, and from that experience, I tell my friends that are doctors and investors, ‘You can put a brand new heart into a person, but you can’t guarantee that the arteries are going to be unobstructed,’” Wagner says. 

When you buy a 40 or 50 year old house and fix it up, there are always going to be more problems down the line. 

When you buy brand new construction, you can safely bet that your capital expenditure is going to be minimal over the next several years.

Florida has one of the toughest building construction codes in the country … concrete block construction, brand new hip roofing, energy efficient air conditioning, windows that can withstand 140 mph winds, tile floors throughout, and the like. 

“It’s more bang for your buck,” Wagner says. 

Together Jean and Wagner have re-engineered what the typical individual moving to Central Florida will be looking to pay for housing and determined what they can build brand new to offer a win for both investor and tenant. 

By building the same model house on infill lots in various communities, their team can buy in volume and lower costs while creating a better product than a turnkey property. 

And, 80% of tenants that rent a new house will stay for three or more years. Less turnover means more money in your pocket, fewer repairs, and better quality tenants. 

To learn more about investing in brand new construction in Central Florida … listen to the full episode!


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As the world turns …

As The World Turns was one of the longest running daytime soap operas in television history. And yes … there are valuable lessons for investors.

From 1956 to 2010, As The World Turns followed the lives of a fictional collection of high-paid legal and medical professionals.

Unlike other shows in the genre, which tended towards sensationalism …

 As The World Turns was nuanced in drawing viewers into the underlying story-lines. The pace was more real-world than melodramatic.

Perhaps it was this deeper intellectual engagement that captivated the audience for decades.

Of course, technology has changed media.

More noise leads to more sensational reporting in desperate ploys to capture attention. It’s the opposite of intellectual.

Today, much of the world’s story-line comes in sound bites, tweets and posts.

And like Pavlov’s dogs, we’re conditioned for short attention spans …

… expecting anything important to be short, loud, obvious, easily understood, and hopefully entertaining.

If information isn’t sensational, it feels unimportant. So we ignore it.

This could be why day-trading is so popular with many young “investors”. It’s hyper-stimulating.

But the real world changes SLOWLY … though surely … even in the internet age. Before Google, Amazon and Facebook … AOL dominated.

Of course, slowly but SURELY … the landscape of the internet changed … and is having a profound impact on everything … including real estate.

Impatient investors might overlook important slow-moving changes … and then miss opportunities or suffer damage from risks they didn’t even see developing.

For years, we’ve been talking about the long-term decline of the dollar …

… and the persistent collapse of interest rates …

Both have significant ramifications for investors … real estate and otherwise. Just as AOL lost it’s dominance slowly, so might the dollar.

But we’ve covered this often, so we’ll simply continue to suggest the financial system may be approaching a fundamental reset …

… and investors are wise to think outside the dollar while preparing for a temporary credit market collapse.

(Hint: Liquidity is good. If credit markets seize, prices usually crash, and bargains abound until credit markets are restored and prices re-inflate.)

If it’s not obvious, the key is getting in FRONT of the wave. Positioning depends on how nimble YOU are in relation to how fast the wave is moving.

Most ordinary investors are unwilling or unable to stay as liquid as needed to nimbly capture big opportunities when shift happens quickly.

However, when a lot of investors all chip in, then together they can grab a big opportunity quickly … even if it’s something none of them could, would or should do alone.

Of course, being able to buy is one thing. Knowing what and where to buy is another. And the best clues aren’t in soundbites and sensational headlines.

Real estate story-lines are often hidden in boring macro-trends … often only visible to diligent market watchers.

One is the so-called “Amazon effect” … as the growth of online shopping and its resulting shipping boom crushes retail and catapults commercial real estate.

Yes, it’s obvious to everyone now. But it’s been going on for many years … and there’s more to the story than meets the mainstream eye.

Of course, COVID-19 is accelerating this trend … and many others … which is why we did a deep dive into the COVID-19 crisis from an investing perspective.

And consider that before e-commerce started reshaping retail, off-shoring shifted manufacturing and its jobs to far away markets … impacting real estate investing in many markets.

Ironically, COVID-19 might accelerate the return of off-shored manufacturing … which is another slow developing storyline we’re following.

The point is … as the world turns, shift happens … often slowly.

And by the time the shifts become obvious, it might be too late to move into position to capture the best opportunities … or avoid the worst pitfalls.

In 2008, we learned businesses will take jobs to more affordable and business friendly places … even off-shore … to survive in tough times.

Similarly, people will change locations and occupations to find work. Many construction workers from Las Vegas ended up in the oil business in Texas.

Ken McElroy taught us strategic market selection … picking geographies with jobs tied to drivers which are difficult if not impossible to move.

Energy is one of the drivers Ken was focused on coming out of 2008. It’s hard to move an oil well to China. That was a good call.

Of course, oil is a complex and volatile industry so we wouldn’t pick a real estate market driven purely by energy production alone. It’s why we avoided North Dakota during the Bakken boom.

When it comes to geographically linked industry, distribution is one of the most stable because it truly follows the old adage: location, location, location.

Distribution hubs are all about location.

Because even if all the stuff is made in China, India or Mexico, it’s still shipped in boxes moving through domestic hubs to American consumers.

This was true before manufacturing was off-shored. It’s been true while shopping moved from in-person to online. And it’s still true during COVID-19.

Distribution is a boring, stable real estate story-line that’s a little hidden under all the sensationalism of the crisis du jour.

So coming out of the last crisis, we focused on Dallas (energy, distribution, and more), Memphis (distribution), and Atlanta (distribution, and more).

Notice a common denominator? And a decade later, the underlying story-line … and the markets it supports … continues to be strong.

Of course, small investors aren’t buying warehouses, distribution centers, truck sales and service centers, rail hubs, ports, or shipyards.

But small investors and syndicators CAN own the residential rental properties which house the employees of all those places.

This allows you to combine the resiliency of residential real estate with the geographic desirability of distribution to add stability to portfolios in uncertain times.

And best could be yet to come …

When capital is moving into expanding these centers, it usually means more jobs and housing demand in those markets down the road.

BUT … you can’t see these trends early by limiting yourself to tweets, memes, soundbites, or mainstream financial media. It’s all far too unsensational.

However, professionals in commercial real estate often diligently track the slow but large flow of capital and transactions into the space.

Strategic real estate investors watch these mega-trends and use them as clues about where and when to scurry into place …

… ESPECIALLY while short-attention span investors are NOT paying attention or are scattering like cockroaches in the light of uncertain economic times.

So … take a deep breath … you’ve come this far … and ponder these points …

Are the millions of people in the U.S. going anywhere soon?

Is it likely someone will create a technology to negate the need for people to live in houses or have stuff shipped to them?

We don’t think so.

Therefore, even though there’s a LOT of sensationalism in the temporary economic drama … the underlying story-line is as slow and steady as the world turns.

So when we came across this midyear 2020 report on the “Elite 11” U.S. industrial markets, it captured our attention.

The report is authored by a 40-year old commercial real estate firm. It provides insight into commercial space growth indicators in 11 key markets.

Among them are AtlantaDallas-Fort Worth, and Houston.

While DFW led in absorption, Houston led in expansion, and “Atlanta will very likely set a record total square footage delivered … by the end of 2020.”

And they’re all in business and landlord friendly states … compared to others which seem intent on chasing business out.

Remember, a fundamental priority of real estate investing is to pick strong markets and product niches FIRST …

… then build a boots-on-the-ground team … and THEN find properties.

Properties are best chosen in the context of markets and sustainable economic drivers.

So while people may not shop in stores or work in offices as the world turns … it’s highly likely they’ll always need a home and stuff.

So in an unstable world, smart investors will figure this out. Better to be among the early.

Distribution is a real bright spot right now … so while COVID-19 makes the future murkier, it doesn’t erase essential human needs.

And if the current uncertainty frightens short-attention-span investors into staying on the sideline, even though the underlying story-line is stable …

… it’s a chance to stay calm and “be greedy when others are fearful.”

Until next time … good investing!

Winners, losers, also-rans, and the clueless …

If you’ve ever been in a crowd when something surprising happened … or even in a game of musical chairs, you know …

… people respond VERY differently when stressed.

Some think, decide and act very quickly. Experience, confidence, coaching, and maturity are all factors.

Then there are those who act quickly … without thinking. It doesn’t always end badly, but it often does.

With the shoot-first-ask-questions-later group, it’s usually immaturity, inexperience, lack of training, arrogance … even desperation … that gets them in trouble.

Others take way too much time to think … and then act too slowly. They often miss the best opportunities or fail to avoid rapidly approaching danger.

This quintessential “paralysis of analysis” is usually rooted in inexperience and lack of training. But pride and extreme fear of failure is often the biggie.

And of course, they’re the folks who completely freeze under pressure.

They can neither think nor act … they’re the proverbial deer in the headlights … suffering emotional and intellectual overload.

These folks are often in denial … using avoidance and reliance purely on hope as their primary strategy … and abdicating personal responsibility for their results.

Which are YOU?

It’s a hard question. We all want to be Joe Cool … calm, confident, collected, decisive … taking effective action under pressure.

Yet we all have our limits. And sadly, we don’t often discover them or work at expanding them until we fail under fire. Not good.

This is a VERY timely topic because in case you hadn’t heard … the world’s economy and financial system is under EXTREME stress right now.

Some of it is likely to roll downhill onto Main Street real estate investors. So if you’re not stressed yet … get ready.

NOW is a really good time to look honestly at your own investing and emotional IQ …

… not based on your goals, aspirations, ideals, or vision … but rather on your actual history of performance under pressure.

If you’re younger, you may not yet have a resume of stressful investing or business experiences to reflect on.

So use what you have … experience in school, sports, games, and even relationships (they’re stressful!) … to find clues into your psychology.

It can be humbling. But it’s an important exercise.

It’s well known by those who study the emotional side of investing … the art of managing fear, greed, procrastination, and arrogance …

… successful investors are able to act decisively and diligently in times of extreme stress.

That’s because they’ve learned to stay level-headed, think clearly, rely on data and expert advice.

Those who FAIL to keep their cool under pressure usually only win small (if at all) … often lose (often big) …

… and sometimes aren’t even in the game at all … missing opportunities like a little-leaguer swinging against a big league pitcher.

There’s a lot of shift happening right now.

And with a polarized election season now added to the mix, it’s about to get a whole lot shiftier … and emotional.

Our friend Blair Singer says …

“When emotions run high, intelligence runs low.”

Your mission is to remain aware, prepared and rational … so when threats and opportunities pop up, you’re able to act wisely and decisively.

Easy to say. Sometimes hard to do. Yet VERY important to work at nonetheless.

In tumultuous circumstances, it’s natural to want to stop, sit down, or cling to anything or anyone familiar in search of stability.

Sometimes that’s smart. After all, there’s a reason money is moving into real assets like metals and real estate.

But it’s not smart to cling on to obsolete strategies, paradigms, or methods. As things change, you might need to change also.

How do you know what to think and do?

One of our strategies is to watch experienced investors … especially those with access to great advisors and quality research.

That’s why we noted billionaire Sam Zell’s and Warren Buffett’s moves into gold.

You may or may not be interested in gold … but the overt and implied reasons behind big money moves contain clues …

… about the economy, financial system, currency, and interest rates.

All investors, real estate and otherwise, are wise to pay attention to those things.

But while gold and real estate are both considered “real assets” … they are also very different.

Real estate is the opposite of a commodity or an asset class. It’s not uniform in all places. Every property is unique right down to the address.

Yet even seasoned real estate investors tend to think about real estate only in the context of their niche and markets.

If you’re into apartments, that’s what real estate is to you.

Or if you’re into office buildings … or retail … or farmland … or single-family residences … that’s what real estate is to you.

Of course, real estate is also more than a niche …

If you’re into residential real estate in New York, you’re having a certain kind of experience right now.

But if you’re investing in residential real estate in JacksonvilleCentral Florida or Phoenix, you’re having a VERY different experience than those in New York.

Overall, residential real estate … especially housing … is red hot. Housing starts are upHomeownership in the US soars to its highest level since 2008.

But that doesn’t mean every house in every market is on fire. Some are. Some aren’t. Some for good reason. Others … not so much.

It’s the ambiguity of real estate which creates the opportunity. And when shift happens, pockets of opportunity and disaster open up.

The important point here is real estate is NOT an asset class … and as things shift, there will be winners and losers.

So back to billionaire watching …

Reuters reports … sovereign wealth funds are re-thinking once-reliable real estate.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has forced sovereign wealth funds to think the previously unthinkable.”

Perhaps the same thing that happened to Warren Buffett and his position on gold.

“ … the funds are retreating from many of the real estate investments that have long been a mainstay of their strategies.”

“… shifting … funds increasingly investing in logistics space, such as warehousing, amid a boom in online commerce during the pandemic, while cutting back on deals for offices and retail buildings.”

Such shifts in behavior can have seismic effects on the global real estate market …”

Of course, if you’re investing in Main Street self-storage centers or mobile-home parks … you’re likely well-insulated from the “seismic effects” created by the equity repositioning of these behemoths.

But while their moves might not affect you … and you may not emulate WHAT they do … you can still learn from WHY they’re doing it.

They’re responding to the STRESS of COVID-19.

Do you think these behemoths think COVID-19 and its ramifications will pass quickly and the world will soon be back to business as usual? Or not?

After all, Buffett backtracked on one of his most outspoken positions and pulled a page out of Peter Schiff’s playbook … dumping dollars and buying gold.

Similarly, these sovereign funds are shifting HUGE long-term holdings from certain real estate niches (the projected “losers”) into others (the projected “winners”).

As shift happens bigger and faster, winning will require more intelligence and greater emotional control.

If you’re not already diligently developing those things … it’s probably a REALLY good idea to get started soon.

Notice that the big boys aren’t taking a Wait and See approach, but rather they Think and Do. That’s a clue.

Meanwhile … what’s clear is the world is changing quickly … the big boys are making their moves … and old paradigms are being re-evaluated.

Our experience, both good and bad, tells us the informed, level-headed, rational, decisive investors will most likely be the biggest winners.

Think and Do is better than Wait and See.

Gold at record highs and mortgage rates at record lows …

When things are moving fast, windows of opportunity open and close quickly. Those not aware and prepared either miss a good thing … or step in a bad thing. Yuck.

Headlines are SCREAMING right now. Things are moving FAST. But in all the noise, messages can be missed.

We’re certainly not experts … just two guys with microphones, curious minds, years of experience, a big tribe of brilliant friends, and a few thoughts.

But here’s what’s on our radar this week …

In the category of “this makes no sense”, the winners are …

Mortgage rates hit new record low as COVID news grows uglier
– MoneyWise via Yahoo Finance, 8/4/20

Interest rates are risk premiums on capital. When you take a bigger risk, you expect a bigger reward. While we love to borrow at low rates …

How in the world do record low interest rates accurately reflect the growing risk of defaults, bankruptcies, inflation and financial system collapse?

Hint: They don’t. So something else must be at play …

Stocks tick higher; Treasury yields sink
– Associated Press via Times Union, 8/4/20

In theory, owning stocks is like being a silent partner in a viable, profitable business. Profitable enterprises with bright prospects should fetch a premium.

But today, entire economies are locked down or constricted by edict, untenable regulations, fear of contagion or lawsuit, or (fill in the blank).

So MAYBE companies facing severe headwinds get temporary credit for laying everyone off. But you can’t cut your way to growth.

More likely, the Fed is propping things up with Greenspan Put 4.0.

As for Treasuries …

When YOU get over-extended … with growing loan balances, dropping income, borrowing just to make interest payments …

… do lenders INCREASE your credit limit and LOWER your rate?

Of course not. That’s stupid and reckless on their part.

Yet somehow Uncle Sam gets to borrow more and more and more … and is rewarded with LOWER rates?

It makes NO sense … UNLESS …

Maybe the rest of the world is even MORE afraid of their OWN currency failing and are piling into Treasuries as a “safer” haven.

But headlines say the dollar is falling to a 3-year low against other currencies.

Maybe the Fed is bidding up Treasuries … and thereby pushing down yields.

(Just like apartment investors bidding up prices and pushing down cap rates)

Of course, gold and silver prices suggest investors worldwide are seeking shelter … not in the dollar or dollar-denominated Treasuries … but in something a little more shiny.

Meanwhile, speaking of gold …

In the category of “Duh. What took so long?” and “Uh oh.” ….

Gold logs fresh record high near $2,050
– MarketWatch via MSN Money, 8/5/20

Anyone who attended or watched the recordings of Future of Money and Wealth Conference in 2018 saw this coming 2 years in advance.

(By the way, the “appreciation” on just ONE ounce of gold purchased in Spring 2018 after the conference … would pay DOUBLE the price of the video series. For all those who “saved” by skipping the recordings. Just sayin’ …)

Candidly, we’re surprised it took this long.

Of course, when you understand the important difference between money and currency, you realize gold didn’t go “up” … the dollar FELL.

Seems like a big money “no confidence” vote on greenbacks. Makes sense.

It’s like a Picasso or Rembrandt painting. An original is rare and valuable. Limited edition prints are somewhat rare and therefore somewhat valuable.

But do you want to invest in a copy of a painting they printed trillions of … and are still printing? Perhaps if an unsophisticated “collector” can be duped into buying it from you on the mistaken belief it’s “limited edition”.

Are YOU collecting prints of dead presidents thinking they’re “limited edition”?

Gold is saying the world is concerned about the TRILLIONS of dollars being printed. They’re realizing dollars aren’t “limited edition”.

That’s probably why gold just punched through $2000 like Superman crashing through sheetrock to save Lois Lane.

Sure. Some gold bugs are giddy. Gold to the moon!

But Peter Schiff, who’s one of the biggest proponents of gold we know, says on his latest podcast …

“ … gold’s move above $2,000 is not a cause for celebration … the move portends extreme economic hardship for most Americans.”

Gold’s price is a CLUE about the future of the dollar. And we’re guessing you earn, borrow, save, invest, and measure your net worth in dollars.

Most Americans have only ONE measuring stick … dollars.

But as we’ve been saying … and delve into with our expert panelists in the JUST RELEASED 13-episode COVID-19 Crisis Investing Series …

… the ONGOING health crisis has triggered an ONGOING economic crisis, which (based on the Fed’s behavior) … threatens to trigger a SEVERE financial system crisis (making 2008 look tiny) …

… which, (based on gold’s behavior) threatens to trigger a severe dollar crisis.

So yeah. Maybe not so good.

In the category of “bad news can be good news” …

Housing Demand Strong, But Other Economic Recovery Signs Point Down
– Globe Street, 8/3/20

“Sales of existing and new homes increased significantly in June, and data points to stable demand for housing, according to a report by Bank of America.”

Home Depot To Open 3 New Distribution Centers In Georgia; To Add Jobs
– Nasdaq, 8/5/20

Granted, we’re using a BIG magnifier to read between the lines … but think about this …

Most of the United States has been put in time out at home. Many small businesses have moved home. Home is a bigger part of people’s lives than in the past.

There’s also a percentage of people who’ve decided their safest investment in uncertain times is the right roof over their heads.

And while we’re admittedly biased, we’re guessing more than a few folks are looking for a place to store wealth that’s closer to home and more tangible.

When times get tough, investors tend to get REAL … as in REAL estate and REAL assets.

And based on our Boots on the Ground conversations with our network around the country, inventory is low, demand is high, while rents and collections are good.

So while macro numbers … where they throw the disastrous markets in with the good … might make the overall numbers soft …

… our anecdotal observation is there’s still solid opportunity in residential real estate … in the right markets with the right teams.

In fact, some markets are seeing an influx of people coming in from high tax, high cost states to enjoy low cost, low tax warm weather and a nicer lifestyle.

All much easier now that working remotely is the rule and not the exception.

So in addition to investors potentially seeking shelter in real estate, the Home Depot story simply illustrates that even in downturns, there are pockets of opportunity.

And an already great opportunity that just got BETTER is syndication … raising money from private investors to do bigger deals and build diversified portfolios.

Think about it …

TRILLIONS of new dollars are funneling into the economy … leading to rising stock AND bond prices, which makes NO sense apart from Fed “influence”.

As stock and bond investors wake up to their perilous position to seek REAL assets … and gold and housing says it’s already starting at both the big and small money level …

… a chunk of those trillions will be open to Main Street alternatives …

… including equity (for tax breaks, inflation protection, capital preservation and growth) … and debt (real yields above inflation and backed by real collateral).

So while the rest of the world might be wondering what to do next, we think the headlines are providing strategic guidance … for those paying attention.

Until next time …. Good investing

Tax Changes Real Estate Investors Need to Know About

We’re back with one of our favorite people … CPA Tom Wheelwright!

Tom is here to share important updates on current and proposed changes to U.S. tax law as part of the war against COVID-19. 

We’re also discussing the details … and potential repercussions … of proposals currently being floated around during this controversial election year. 

There are changes that real estate investors like YOU need to know about. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your up-to-date host, Robert Helms
  • His taxing co-host, Russell Gray
  • CPA and tax expert, Tom Wheelwright

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Let’s talk about taxes

One of the biggest elements that affects cash flow and overall return of real estate investments is taxation. 

And yet … nobody really likes to talk about it. That needs to change! There’s lots you can do to reduce taxes and make more money. 

Our good friend, CPA Tom Wheelwright, always says, “If you study a nation’s tax code, you can see exactly the behavior they want, because they reward it.”

The tax code is a series of incentives. 

There’s so much going on right now in the world … and in an election year, a lot can happen. 

We don’t have a political argument to make of any kind … but when you start talking about tax policy and you have different parties with different opinions, politics are going to come up. 

We’re here to wrap our minds around some of the proposed tax changes that real estate investors must understand. 

New tax changes you should know about

Going all the way back to Obamacare, there was a tax impact for real estate. Then, the Trump administration came in and made the first major overhaul. 

It’s no secret that with a real estate guy in the White House … we got some very favorable breaks for real estate investors. 

Then, the COVID-19 crisis impacted the tax code. 

Basically, since 2008, the tax code has been a roller coaster. There have been extreme changes in public policy, public behavior, and financial markets. 

All of that means that as a real estate investor, you’ve got to be looking a little bit farther down the road. And, you need to be well-advised by a great tax professional. 

Tom Wheelwright is here to get that conversation started … but remember to sit down with your own tax advisor and get their expert views for your personal situation. 

There have been some really important changes recently for real estate investors. The most obvious one was the qualified improvement property change. 

This was in the Cares Act correcting a mistake in a 2017 act in which the government didn’t include leasehold improvements on commercial property as qualifying for bonus depreciation. 

The Cares Act now said that they do … and you can take advantage of that retroactively all the way back to 2018. You can amend your return, and there can be a lot of money in that. 

The Cares Act also said that if you had to reduce your hours … either business hours or working hours … because of the pandemic, you can pull out up to $100K from all your accounts put together. 

Then, you have two choices. You can either pay tax on that money over three years or you can put that money back in three years and not be taxed at all. 

“You could literally take money out, buy a property, take care of the property, sell the property, and put the money back. Or, you could keep the property and borrow against the property and put the money back,” Tom says. 

Tom adds that anybody who is a real estate investor and seriously doesn’t want their money tied up in their IRA or their 401K should really look into this and see if they qualify. 

The other big change involved the net operating loss carryback. 

In 2017, real estate investors lost the ability to carry back net operating losses. In 2020, we gain that ability … and we gain it for 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

And, now it’s a five-year carryback. We’re talking about going back to 2013, 2014, 2015 … years that were really good years for a lot of people. 

And let’s say you weren’t a real estate professional in those years and now you are … you’ve got bonus depreciation. You can carry back to when you weren’t a real estate professional to offset your income and get a refund. 

Tom says that this particular benefit isn’t popular in the House of Representatives … so you better look into it quickly if you’re interested. 

The other tax benefit that people don’t often talk about is the charitable deduction tax benefit. 

Typically, individuals can only deduct up to 60% of charitable contributions … in 2020, it’s a hundred percent. 

“If you want to give all your money away this year, the government says to go for it. They’ll give you a deduction for it,” Tom says. 

Tax changes that could be coming

The tax changes that real estate investors got under the Trump administration were favorable to a lot of folks. 

Now, with an election year, Joe Biden has come out with his own tax plan and ideas. 

“Biden’s tax plan is basically a tax everything tax plan,” Tom says. “Really, he would eviscerate the tax law if he had his choice, which leads me to personally wonder if he understands the tax law at all.” 

Tom says that, for example, all the real estate benefits would go away. It wouldn’t eliminate cost segregation, but it would eliminate bonus depreciation. 

Biden has also proposed eliminating 1031 exchanges, the basis step up when you die, and oil and gas tax benefits. 

But remember, President Obama also proposed eliminating a lot of these tax breaks. Just because they are proposed doesn’t mean they’ll get enacted. 

Either way, it’s important for real estate investors to be vigilant and stay tuned in. 

For more on tax changes and how they can affect you … listen in to the full episode!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Podcast: Tax Changes Real Estate Investors Need to Know About

CPA Tom Wheelwright joins us with important updates on current and proposed changes to U.S. tax law as part of the war against COVID-19.

We also discuss the details and potential repercussions of proposals being floated in a controversial election year.

So tune in as we talk tax changes real estate investors need to know about with CPA Tom Wheelwright.


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


Love the show?  Tell the world!  When you promote the show, you help us attract more great guests for your listening pleasure!

What skyrocketing silver prices means to real estate investors …

It sounds BAD… but it can be VERY good …

As we write, silver is soaring … from $18 to $23 (a 27% gain) in just a few days.

Equity happens … in metals too!

We’ve been talking about precious metals for years. Watching metals is one of the important lessons from the 2008 crisis.

What do rising silver prices mean to real estate investors?

First, silver and gold are important financial system gauges … providing valuable clues about the future of money and wealth.

Precious metals are considered attractive alternatives to dollars in the bank … and to equity in real estate as vehicles to store wealth.

Precious metals tend to combine the best features of both cash and real estate equity. There’s a LOT more to say on this, but we’ll save it for another day.

For now, remember real estate equity is illiquid … exposed to creditors and predators … and hard to protect in a foreclosure.

Meanwhile, dollars have a long history of losing value. It’s a big reason why equity happens and leveraged real estate is a great investment.

Also, dollars stored in a bank are subject to nasty things called counterparty risk and bail-ins … which few depositors are aware of. It’s a reward-free risk.

Of course, converting real estate equity and dollars into precious metals mitigates many of these risks. And done right, this strategy can significantly outgrow inflation and help you build resilient wealth.

This is a hot topic right now, so we’re preparing a tutorial on it. To be notified when it’s ready, email [email protected].

Meanwhile, back to the clues in the news and soaring silver prices …

Gold and silver are considered “monetary” metals. They’re money.

Many people confuse “money” with “currency” because they used to be one and the same.

But money and currency are divorced now. Strategies which worked when they were married don’t work so well today.

The lesson is … when fundamental parts of the financial system change, strategies, and tactics should be updated.

Right now, rising silver prices could be foreshadowing a fundamental shift we’ve been watching for.

Gold’s already there, which makes silver’s move noteworthy because …

Gold and silver are similar … but different.

It’s kind of like the penthouse and the warehouse.

While gold gets to prance around at the “monetary metal” ball … hobnobbing with central banks and uber-rich investors …

… silver is often relegated to working-class status as an “industrial metal”.

This is because silver is cheaper than gold and is an essential component in many products, including solar panels and cell phones.

So while gold finds its way into fancy jewelry and safe deposit boxes … silver ends up conducting electrical current before being buried in a landfill.

But sometimes Cinderella silver gets invited to the monetary ball. And it looks like it just happened.

It’s a safe bet industry is suppressed. Lock-downs do that. So the big spike in silver probably isn’t due to industrial demand.

Of course, we’re not precious metals experts, but we know several.

One of our favorite commentators monitors an esoteric metric which helps distinguish paper trading from physical demand. It’s an important distinction we’ll delve into shortly.

In a recent article, Keith Weiner writes …

“… the [silver] buying which drove the price up so much was … buying of physical metal.”

What does this mean and why does it matter?

Seems to us if physical demand is up, and it’s not from industrial demand, then it may be silver is now on the MONETARY metal bandwagon.

That is, people and institutions could be buying silver to stack in their safes.

Perhaps a clue that dollar holders are losing faith in the dollar. And there are several trillion reasons why this would be.

Of course, gold’s surge supports this. Gold is quickly approaching the all-time high last reached in 2011.

As we noted then, central banks bought physical gold in record amounts in 2019. As the ultimate currency insiders, maybe they knew something?

In any case, it seems today more people are trading in dollars for gold.

If true, you’d expect dollar weakness … and along comes this Reuters headline …

Battered U.S. dollar ‘hanging by a thread’ as coronavirus cases grow

Here’s the concern … something we’ve watched for a while …

The primary reason the Federal Reserve can create unlimited dollars without disaster (think Zimbabwe or Venezuela) is the U.S. dollar reigns as the world’s reserve currency.

This “exorbitant privilege” creates huge demand for dollars all over the world.

So although those newbie dollars might be Made in the USA (who says we don’t make anything?) …

… but they’re funneled around the globe through federal spending on military, foreign aid, international loans, and a host of the things.

Even those stimulus dollars deposited directly into citizens’ checkbooks find their way to China … as consumers buy Chinese stuff from Wal-Mart and Amazon. U.S. trade deficits funnel dollars overseas.

This means Americans don’t feel the full devaluation of their dollars … the rest of the world soaks up much of the excess.

But consider this …

If sending dollars overseas suppresses domestic inflation, what happens if (when) those excess dollars come back?

Ironically, as chronicled in our Real Asset Investing Report … China is leading the charge to de-dollarize the world. Russia’s on board too.

Rising gold prices … and now soaring silver prices combined with physical demand … could be indicators of a growing migration out of dollars.

This is a big deal when set against the backdrop of unprecedented Fed printing … and public officials’ denials. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

In 2008, we were told the sub-prime problem was contained … how’d that work out?

‘We want a stable dollar,’ says U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: ‘It is the reserve currency of the world and we’re going to protect that’

– MarketWatch, 7/23/20

Here’s the problem …

The way we understand it, to save a struggling financial system, the Fed MUST create MANY TRILLIONS of fresh dollars … more than ever.

Those new dollars buy bonds to suppress interest rates … another topic we’ve addressed before.

Of course, as long as enough people trust and accept all these brand-new dollars, it’s business as usual.

BUT if dollar-holders revolt, then a lot of SHIFT HAPPENS …

Interest rates could rise. When lenders think they’ll get paid back with highly depreciated dollars, they’ll demand compensation.

Are you prepared for the possibility of spiking interest rates?

Credit markets could implode. Think 2008 on steroids. Rising rates are kryptonite to the mighty-but-leveraged balance sheets of nearly every financial player.

Are you prepared for a world without cheap and abundant credit?

Commodity and energy prices could rise faster from inflation than they drop from depreciation based on depressed demand.

Are you prepared for tenants to have more of their income consumed by food and energy?

We’re not saying all of this will happen … maybe none of it will. But there are rational reasons to think it could.

As we often say …

“Better to be prepared and not have a crisis, than to have a crisis and not be prepared.”

Except this time, a crisis isn’t a “maybe”. It’s here … moving methodically through a progression of crises aimed at a currency crisis.

Ironically, the Fed’s attempts to stop it could cause it. Peter Schiff has been warning of this for years. Now we’re here.

Of course, we certainly don’t have all the answers. But we’re paying attention and working hard to stay ahead of it.

And it’s not all bad.

In fact, there should be a lot of opportunity. We’re sad for those who get blind-sided but excited for those of us who are aware and prepared.

Quality properties will likely be available at great bargains … IF you’re in a position to purchase them.

Many affluent folks could be looking for syndicators to help them move money out of Wall Street onto Main Street.

The landscape for syndication just got better.

NOW is the time to prepare for these possibilities. But it may require thinking outside the box you’ve been in for the last decade.

The world is changing in BIG ways … and very fast. Your investing strategy and tactics probably need to change too.

So stay tuned … and we’ll keep the ideas and insights coming.

Preparing for the New Realities of Real Estate

We’re chatting with Ken McElroy … Robert Kiyosaki’s very own real estate guy … for a reality check of investing heading into a potential crisis unfolding before our eyes. 

The world is changing … and when it changes, your investment strategy should too. 

We’re all preparing for the new realities of real estate … and we’ve got ideas to share with YOU. 

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your unreal host, Robert Helms
  • His unprepared co-host, Russell Gray
  • Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Advisor for Real Estate, Ken McElroy

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Marching toward a new normal

So much is changing in the world, and that permeates into real estate. 

What is the new normal going to look like? And how can YOU prepare for what’s coming next?

We’re chatting with our good friend, Ken McElroy. He’s the Rich Dad advisor for real estate. 

When Kenny has something to say, we have ears to listen … because we’ve seen over the years that he has been right A LOT more than he has been wrong. 

Ken brings a couple of special talents and perspectives to the party … so to speak. 

One is his tactical experience. He has been in the game for a long time. He has ridden a lot of up and down market cycles, and he is a really down-to-earth, practical guy who can explain things in plain English. 

Kenny is a hands-on guy who runs a team of hands-on people … and he brings with him the big picture insight of his relationship with Robert Kiyosaki. 

Too many people in real estate get dogmatically focused on just real estate … THEIR market or THEIR niche. 

While you do want to know about the markets that you’re in, you also need to get your head out of the weeds and look up at the horizon. 

Ken’s core investing philosophy comes from being a property manager over the years, specializing in B class apartments. 

When he takes these properties on, they’re not in great financial shape … and sometimes not great physical shape either. They need some work to help increase rents and property value. 

Over the years, Kenny’s taught us a bunch of clever ways to increase your net operating income. 

Now, with the normal status quo of things on the fritz in so many ways when it comes to being a landlord … we thought it was definitely time to pick Ken’s brain. 

The effects of COVID-19

If you’ve been listening to us for a while, you probably know a bit of Ken’s background … property management and ownership of thousands of apartment units. 

There’s certainly a lot of concern over tenants losing their jobs, not being able to pay rent, and eviction moratoriums. 

“The truth is, this is part of management,” Ken says. “Management is really easy when tenants are coming in and rents are going up, but when hard times hit is when your true skill and technique gets exposed.”

Right now, Ken says his company has about 8,000 tenants … so when COVID-19 shutdowns happened in March, it hit them pretty hard. 

No one wants to experience a downturn … but it’s part of the game. When downturns happen, you hope that you planned accordingly in the good times to be able to withstand. 

Ken says that about 80% off his tenants were able to continue to make payments. 

Then, about 15% of tenants anticipated having issues paying rent, communicated those issues and were put onto a promise to pay (PTP) program as a way of working with property management. 

The remaining 5% or so were people who didn’t communicate and assumed with what they were hearing from the news that they just didn’t have to pay. 

“We are really trying to work with people. The last thing we want to do is boot anybody out and ruin their credit. The people that are working with us and communicating we know are good people, and so we are doing all we can,” Ken says. 

Moving from renters to property owners, about 5 million people are having trouble with their mortgages. 

Ken says we haven’t even begun to see the potential effects of the virus on this sector … because people with homes are going to fight to stay in them for as long as they can. 

Depending on how long all of this drags on, it could be quite some time before we can visualize the real impact. 

Strategies for the future

Back in 2008 or 2009, we spoke with Ken about how he was strategically trying to pick markets that were B class and geographically near jobs that couldn’t be moved. 

Has his strategic plan changed for when we come out of this height of the pandemic bubble and start to look for opportunities?

“I haven’t seen any statistics yet for 2020, but the patterns of population migration have been very interesting to watch over the last several years. That will definitely play a part,” Ken says. 

If you look at a location like New York City, for example, from many standpoints … housing listing, reduction in pricing, employment … it looks like this area is going to get hit pretty hard. 

We were already seeing pre-pandemic that listings in New York City were down about 57%. People are leaving and going to other places like Florida where they can spend less for more space. 

In general, many people are leaving the city to move further out of town to smaller communities. That may be a big opportunity for the future. 

With remote work, many tenants will no longer be held down to these employment centers and will have the luxury to choose where they want to live. 

So, as we go through and find opportunities after the virus, how do investors make sure they keep their heads on straight?

You have to be practical and realistic about what’s happening. But at the same time, there is going to be a ton of potential for redevelopment. 

Ken predicts that many regional malls and small shopping centers aren’t going to make it … and there will be a lot of single-family homes on the market a year from now. 

That will drive prices down … and push us into a renter economy.

For more on how you can prepare for the new normal in real estate … listen to the full episode!


More From The Real Estate Guys™…

The Real Estate Guys™ radio show and podcast provides real estate investing news, education, training, and resources to help real estate investors succeed.


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Inflation, Deflation, Depression or Dollar Crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic means the economy has slowed down … way down in some cases. 

So, central banks led by the Fed are conjuring TRILLIONS of fresh dollars out of thin air. And Uncle Sam is making sure they get into circulation. 

The question on many investors’ minds is, “WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN?” 

Will prices rise or fall? Can the economy grow if it’s locked down? Or are we headed into depression?

And of course, one of the biggest questions of all … will the world trust a dollar being diluted by the trillions on a monthly basis?

In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show, hear from:

  • Your inflated host, Robert Helms
  • His depressing co-host, Russell Gray
  • PhD economist and best-selling author, Richard Duncan

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Looking at the bigger economic picture

All investments float in the economic sea. If you only look at real estate … instead of taking a step back to look at the bigger economic picture … you may run into trouble. 

The situation we find ourselves in today with COVID-19 is different than other economic situations we have faced in the past … 2008 included. 

This health crisis has manifested in a global economic lockdown. Instead of a credit crisis coming first and leading to job losses, we have job losses right out of the gate in a bigger fashion than we’ve ever seen in our lifetime. 

And not just in the United States … around the world. 

So, it makes a lot of sense for us to talk to someone today that looks at the world from the understanding of credit markets on a global level and how all of those things play together. 

Richard Duncan is a PhD economist and author. He was an advisor to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and he really sees a much bigger picture than the average investor. 

Whether you agree with the opinions he shares today or not, Richard is qualified to have an opinion. 

If you concentrate hard on listening to what he has to say, processing the data, and understanding his logic, you might gain some great insights and actionable intelligence. 

If nothing else, you may learn to anticipate the potential consequences that can come when the people behind the financial curtain start pulling on their levers. 

Recession or depression?

“The thing that is going to determine whether this is just a recession or a full-fledged 1930-style depression is going to be the speed and magnitude of the government’s fiscal and monetary policy response,” Richard says. 

COVID-19 has put the economy into a complete freefall, but Richard says that we have been really fortunate in the U.S. because the government acted quickly. 

The government has come to through with almost $3 trillion of fiscal rescue bills with more money potentially on the way. 

Meanwhile, the Fed has radically expanded the amount of money that is created. In 2020, the Fed has created $2.75 trillion in new money. 

Basically, the government is spending money to replace all the money that’s not being spent by households and businesses … they’re holding the economy together. 

“If the government spends enough and the Fed continues to print enough, there’s no reason that we have to collapse into a protracted, decade-long depression the way we did in the 1930s,” Richard says. 

But, it’s going to be absolutely crucial that the government keeps spending. 

If they do, Richard thinks that the economy will survive and come out of this crisis looking very similar to the way it looked before COVID-19. 

But if not, then the U.S. could be headed for a depression-style economic catastrophe that could extend far into the future. 

That’s why it is absolutely essential, in many economists’ view, that the government continue propping up the economy and holding the economy together the way that it has so far. 

But what happens when, say, $10 trillion more works its way into the economy?

Looking back at 2008, we see that the expansion of government debt and the expansion of the Fed’s money printing didn’t cause inflation at the consumer price level. 

It DID cause inflation at the asset price level, but that was part of the plan. They needed to push up asset prices to create a wealth effect, boost consumption, and keep the economy growing because the private sector was weak. 

So, looking ahead based on that experience, Richard says it is by no means certain that we are going to move into a period of significant inflation at the consumer price level. 

Although he adds, we may see property prices go higher and stock prices go higher as a result of the new money and the government spending. 

All of this remains true as long as globalization remains intact. 

For example, before the outbreak of the virus, tensions with China were already strained. Now things are … even more so. 

In the U.S., we have realized that we don’t have the manufacturing in place to manufacture medical supplies that we need. So, a certain amount of manufacturing has been brought back during the pandemic. 

That’s a good thing … but it’s hard to tell to what extent that localization is going to be reversed. If globalization breaks down entirely, Richard says there is a chance that America will move back to a period of high inflation rates. 

The future of the dollar

Moving forward in terms of the dollar, Richard says that there really is no alternative to the dollar standard. 

“The reason the dollar is the global reserve currency above all else is because the U.S. has such a large trade deficit,” Richard says. 

For instance, in recent years China’s trade surplus with the United States has been more than $1 billion every day. 

That means that China sells its goods in the United States. It gets paid in dollars. It takes those dollars back to China … and it has a few choices. 

“It can burn them. It can bury them under the Great Wall, or it can buy dollar-denominated assets with them like treasury bonds,” Richard says. 

So, as long as China wants to keep selling things to the U.S. and have that surplus, it’s going to have to take those dollars and invest them either in government bonds or something riskier. 

That’s not going to change. There’s nothing they can do about it as long as they want to keep selling things in the United States … and their economy depends on it. 

For more on Richard’s thoughts about the world economy and where things are headed … listen to the full episode!


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