Ahead of Friday’s big number, and following last month’s dismal print (under its new model regime) which dramatically under-predicted the payrolls print in August, ADP was expected to show a modest uptick in September of 200k jobs. The actual print came in at +208k jobs but most notably, the +132k print from August was revised drastically higher to +185k…

Source: Bloomberg

ADP’s Nela Richardson notes that “there are signs that people are returning to the labor market. We’re in an interim period where we’re going to continue to see steady job gains. Employer demand remains robust and the supply of workers is improving–for now.”

The goods-producing sector lost 29,000 jobs in September while Services gained 237k…

Job changers, who have been notching double-digit, year-over-year gains since the summer of 2021, lost momentum in September. Their annual pay rose 15.7 percent, down from a revised 16.2 percent gain in August. It’s the biggest deceleration in the three-year history of our data…

For job stayers, annual pay rose 7.8 percent in September from a year ago, up from a revised 7.7 percent in August.

According to ADP, US private employment is back above pre-COVID levels…

Finally, as a reminder, even under its new model, ADP has been a serial underpredictor relative to the BLS payrolls print…

Which means this Friday’s print will likely not be bad enough to prompt any Fed pause.