Are you prepared for the future?
In our annual yearly forecast episode, we explore the future of real estate in 2019. We don’t have a crystal ball … but we do have great resources and smart friends.
Hear from three real estate experts on the state of the housing market, the effect of changing interest rates, the outlook for commercial real estate, and MORE.
In this episode of The Real Estate Guys™ show you’ll hear from:
- Your forward-thinking host, Robert Helms
- His fraidy-cat co-host, Russell Gray
- Consultant and new home expert John Burns
- Podcaster and real-estate expert Kathy Fettke
- The Apartment King, Brad Sumrok
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In the news …
We’ve scoured the news sources and industry journals to see what might be coming in 2019.
The National Association of Realtors predicts in their 2019 Forecast that home sales will flatten and home prices will continue to increase.
The report also says not to expect a buyers’ market within the next five years except in the case of a significant economic shift.
On the other hand, the forecast cautions sellers to be mindful of increasing competition. It notes inventory growth, particularly in high-end housing, but reminds readers of the current housing shortage.
We’ve looked at predictions from various experts. Several of those experts predicted home prices will stabilize or rise at a much slower rate than in previous years.
One expert predicted listings in entry-level markets will remain tight. Yet another predicted industrial markets will continue to sizzle, interest rates will keep rising, and apartment rents will steadily moderate.
We’ve also read an article covering the State of the Market Panel hosted by Real Estate Journals.
The panelists agreed 2019 will be a big year for commercial real estate, including some new industrial and distribution/warehousing opportunities. They noted commercial rates will keep inching up.
Investors should consider opportunity zones and changes in the tax code in 2019. There are far different incentives for investors than for homeowners, and expensive housing means even more people will be pushed from buying to renting.
Predictions for the new home industry from John Burns
John Burns runs John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and he aims to help people in the new home industry understand trends.
In 2019, John says he is, “confident we won’t see construction grow that much.” He notes sales slowed dramatically in 2018, and he believes people will continue to be cautious.
What are builders paying attention to? They’re trying to build smarter with strategies like offsite construction and materials efficiency. They’re also building better by integrating smart-home technology and pivoting toward lower price points.
What about trends in home ownership? John says he thinks ownership is ticking back up. He says the millennial generation has some unique considerations … most want homes, but compared to previous generations, it may take them a bit longer to commit, especially because of increasing student loan debt.
And how do interest rates affect home builders? “It takes a big bite out the market,” John says. If people can’t get mortgages or can’t afford a new mortgage, they’re less likely to invest in a new home.
Take advantage of opportunity zones in 2019, says Kathy Fettke
Investors should look for jobs and opportunities in 2019. There will always be certain companies and cities that will thrive through a recession, says podcaster and Real Wealth Network founder Kathy Fettke.
These areas can provide investors with both equity and cashflow … and with new opportunity zones, there’s also the potential for tax breaks.
Neighborhoods that are flooded with investors because they’re opportunity zones WILL see equity growth, Kathy notes.
But just because an area is an opportunity zone doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed good deal, and Kathy cautions investors to make sure deals make sense by investigating if they’ll hold out in the long run. That means job sources, stable and growing infrastructure, and good prospects for revitalization.
“You need the city on your side,” she says.
In 2019, Kathy is looking for stable employers that can thrive through a recession … she mentions Netflix. She warns investors not to get ahead of themselves by investing in areas that aren’t likely to improve within 10 years.
Employment is low, and interest rates are rising. We asked Kathy what she thinks will happen in that arena.
She says that while it’s hard to predict what will happen with the Trump administration, investors should keep their eye on corporate debt.
The ’08 recession happened because of a big consumer debt problem … corporate debt might cause trouble in the future. So, take a close look at the businesses that employ renters when investigating a market.
“Our world is changing so quickly,” Kathy notes. “Today is no longer a world where you can invest and forget about it for 30 years.” So in the housing realm, make sure you’re looking beyond the current tenant to say, who’s next? And will they have a job? Look for stability.
Demand and supply in multi-family, with Brad Sumrok
Last, we talked to the Apartment King, Brad Sumrok, educator and investor in the multi-family housing realm.
“I’m still proceeding with caution,” Brad says. But he notes there are many indicators that multi-family will continue to be a good asset.
We asked him whether some of the signs of doom from ’07 and ’08 are happening again in the multi-family space. The short answer? No.
Back then, there was a huge oversupply of housing. Now, there’s a 2-million-unit shortage. Most building now is happening in the A-class luxury space … but that’s not where the demand is. That means there’s an oversupply of luxury housing … but still some great opportunities to provide housing for working-class tenants.
Most people in the B and C class aren’t renters by choice … it costs, on average, $339 more per month to own a home than to rent. For blue-collar tenants, that’s a huge difference. And strict financing is further reducing the number of buyers.
That means more renters, and more demand for housing.
An increasing number of investors are looking at multi-family, which does inevitably mean cap-rate compression. But tax laws are on the side of investors.
“As the market changes, you have to temper your expectations,” Brad notes. Investors can’t expect to triple their equity in three years, and returns are likely to align with historical models.
That means there’s less of a cushion for making mistakes. It’s a strong case for investors to educate themselves before getting into an asset class.
To get educated on the multi-family market, check out Brad Sumrok’s 2019 Apartment Forecast! We wish you lots of equity in the new year.
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