It’s the time of year to get together and have a good time celebrating the holidays. Sometimes this involves indulging in some intoxicating activities.
Those who want to enjoy themselves know their limits … and prudently rely upon a sober person to get them safely home.
Naturally, we’re talking about investing.
Just take a look at just a few of the many recent intoxicating headlines …
- Homebuilder confidence hits highest level in 18 years
- Berkshire Hathaway shares reach $300,000 for the first time
- Costco’s stock rallies toward another record
- Bitcoin futures trade near $20,000
It’s important to remember … investing vehicles are supposed to get us to our financial destination SAFELY.
Crashes are DANGEROUS … which is why sobriety is advised.
Of course, in a room full of intoxicated partiers, a sober person can come off as a party-pooper … and NO ONE likes a party-pooper.
So let’s see if we can serve up some investing eggnog and with a dash of optimism … and no nasty hangover or risking a life-threatening crash.
First, let’s take a quick dive into the aforementioned headlines …
Home-builders are REALLY confident … presumably because they believe conditions are ripe for them to buy land, materials, and labor … turn them all into homes which they can sell at a profit.
That’s because home prices are UP … unlike those dark days in the wake of the recession when existing homes were selling below replacement cost … making it nearly impossible for home builders to build profitably.
The U.S. stock market … and most global stock markets … have been rocketing higher.
In fact, the U.S. stock market has taken out all-time highs … over SEVENTY times in 2017 … an all-time record.
All this amid rabid share buybacks by corporations flush with cheap cash from low interest rates… and now from tax breaks which appear inevitable in the new tax bill.
Of course, when corporations take stock OFF the market (reduce supply), while demand surges as bullish investors are piling in … prices rise. Go stocks!
And speaking of rising prices …
Of course, the meteoric rise of Bitcoin is THE asset price boom story of the year … perhaps of our lifetime. It’s gotten to where accidental Bitcoin multi-millionaires are even starting hedge-funds.
Are we jealous? Maybe just a lot. But we’re not sure missing the Bitcoin boom makes us stupid … any more than Bitcoin billionaires are suddenly investing geniuses.
“Stupid is as stupid does.” – Forrest Gump
Pre-2008, we knew a lot of people who thought they were real estate investing geniuses because real estate was going up fast everywhere.
They’d put $20,000 down and buy a little house, and a year later it was worth $100,000 more. There’s NOTHING wrong with that.
BUT … it’s a mistake to think you’re an investing genius because you bought a bubble asset at the right time.
Of course, if you’re not smart enough to get out before the bubble deflates, it can take all gains … and your investing “genius” … with it. We know.
“I may be drunk, Miss … but in the morning, I will be sober … and you will still be ugly.” – Winston Churchill
Rising asset prices are FUN. Easy equity is intoxicating. Who doesn’t like to see the spread between assets and liabilities grow?
But asset price parties can turn ugly fast if you’re not careful, which brings us to the point of today’s musing …
In good times and bad, always remember what REAL investing and wealth are …
… and no matter how intoxicated with bubble wealth you are, be sure you get home safely.
To our way of thinking, the purpose of investing is to accumulate units of real value and the productivity of others.
Wealth is measured by how many useful items you own … like buildings, trees, crops, barrels of oil, ounces of strategic or precious metals, etc.
These are things people MUST have in order to live, work, or make things of value.
When you have more units of real value, and more people sending you a portion of their productivity, you are WEALTHY.
And when you pick items of real value which also reduce exposure to counter-party risk, your wealth is even safer.
Intoxicated investors look at their balance sheet and celebrate their net worth … perhaps even borrowing heavily to spend on consumption.
In fact, this is EXACTLY what the government and banks WANT you to do.
Sober investors look at their balance sheet as merely a tool for building their CASH FLOW statement. Spending comes out of the productivity of the asset … not it’s equity.
This is no small differentiation … because what you do with equity defines you as an investor.
The investor who buys low, sells high, skims some spending money, then pushes the stack back in and rolls the dice again, needs to keep playing the game … or the cash flow stops.
You can be a full-time investor, but you’re still on the treadmill.
The investor who buys low, then uses equity gains to acquire streams of positive cash flow will eventually become free from the need to personally produce to eat.
Robert Kiyosaki calls this “out of the rat race” … and it’s an enviable place to be.
The world is awash in paper (balance sheet) equity right now … in stocks, real estate, and now cryptos. None of them are bad. Equity is awesome!
But the market giveth equity … and the market taketh equity away.
We think it’s smart to take equity off the table before Mean Mr. Market takes it first … and then use your new equity to acquire productivity … cash flow.
It’s even better when you can pair equity with cheap long-term debt, so you can own MORE units of real value (properties) and income (tenants).
Of course, the right real estate is an ideal vehicle to acquire an income producing asset with cheap long term debt.
If prices decline, the income provides a basis of value and control. And if prices take off, your bigger collection of assets will create even more equity faster.
If you haven’t already, now’s a good time for a portfolio sobriety check. It doesn’t mean the party’s over … but it just might make it a bit safer.
Happy holiday and until next time … good investing!
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